NOC Death on the Dance Floor [Game Over: X Wins]

[HeaLnDeaL]

My two day 1 townreads were m2h and moody. Going into day 2 my annoyance with moody rn is prolly not the best thing to have if I want to make an informed and updated read, so I'll hold off on that for a bit.

Purely speaking on day 1, I liked Moody's consistent posting and I didn't think it was likely that moody would be a powerwolf and risk giving away that much information with such frequent and try-hardy posts.

 

[MoodyCloud]

The obsession with me is really weird when Energy has been providing way less content and yet you gave him a lot of space.

Oh wait, that's because you think dead townie's towncores have to be right, and therefore energy has to be town :rolling_eyes:

(above statement is not a read indication on Energy at all, it is an annoyance at your logic).

that is not what I've said at all but you do you

 

[MoodyCloud]

m2h was killed, he was thus probably the most threatening slot. He had both energy and mega in his towncore, as well as townreads on bloody/tennyson. He had a sr on uto/dopog (had one on me at one point).

So scum were threatened by either/both :
- mega and energy being town core
- bloody/tennyson (mostly bloody was at risk I think) having a widely town read advocate
- uto/dopog getting heat by a widely town read slot

I would say we can infer that mega/energy are not both scum at the very least, that there is probably scum in uto/dopog, and that bloody/tennyson are probably not both scum either, maybe both town even ? idk I don't see what uto/tennyson are seeing with the bloodyrain slot and tennyson won't give any argument when asked

 

[HeaLnDeaL]

I'm thinking it might be worth it if the vig claims. Too risky for the tracker to (tracker should obv only claim if they get a guilty on someone visiting m2h), but I think the vig has questionable taste to not have vigged UTO, dopog, or even myself so I'm not terribly worried about keeping a stellar vig alive.

 

[MoodyCloud]

obviously those assumptions aren't cast-iron but I think at least one of them is true

 

[MoodyCloud]

I think we either have both claim or neither

 

[HeaLnDeaL]

m2h was killed, he was thus probably the most threatening slot. He had both energy and mega in his towncore, as well as townreads on bloody/tennyson. He had a sr on uto/dopog (had one on me at one point).

So scum were threatened by either/both :
- mega and energy being town core
- bloody/tennyson (mostly bloody was at risk I think) having a widely town read advocate
- uto/dopog getting heat by a widely town read slot

I would say we can infer that mega/energy are not both scum at the very least, that there is probably scum in uto/dopog, and that bloody/tennyson are probably not both scum either, maybe both town even ? idk I don't see what uto/tennyson are seeing with the bloodyrain slot and tennyson won't give any argument when asked

I think that you're overvaluing how many people a kill has correct in their POE compared to how many townies have a single townie in their POE.

I think it's much more likely m2h was nightkilled because most townies read him correctly compared to because his POE or towncore was accurate. It's possible it's both sure, but I think we all know the former influenced the scum kill and it's just conjecture on the later.

 

[HeaLnDeaL]

I think that you're overvaluing how many people a kill has correct in their POE compared to how many townies have a single townie in their POE.

I think it's much more likely m2h was nightkilled because most townies read him correctly compared to because his POE or towncore was accurate. It's possible it's both sure, but I think we all know the former influenced the scum kill and it's just conjecture on the later.

That said I do agree with your conclusion that at least one in energy/mega is town and that at least one in uto and dopog is scum. Don't really agree about with you said about bloody and tenny tho.

 

[MoodyCloud]

you could be right, I think there would have been a lot of paranoia between m2h and myself today if we had both lived however

 

[MoodyCloud]

idk I think if I was bloody's teammate and rereading d1 I would've thought that if we removed m2h, bloody would be a goner

 

[HeaLnDeaL]

idk I think if I was bloody's teammate and rereading d1 I would've thought that if we removed m2h, bloody would be a goner

This post doesn't make a ton of sense to me. I can sort of see the logic, but it seems so wifomy and occam's razory. Scum's intent should be to eliminate someone who everyone trusts, since if that one person is right on a vote then they could influence the whole town to vote that way (for some reason that didn't happen yesterday though, so I am a bit suspicious of people who townread m2h but blatantly disregarded his feelings on haruno... the end of day was fast paced though, which has a tendency to cause chaos).

 

[HeaLnDeaL]

MoodyCloud point blank wut are your feeling on bloody? Sorry if you've stated them already earlier today, but I don't remember a super clear answer to this so far.

Your above post focusing on bloody just requires me to ask.

 

[Mega-Pokebattlerz]

Extremely tentative reads but Bloody and UTO seem like safe scum candidates from what others have said. I want Tennyson and Energy out if only so I don't have to deal with their awful holier-than-thou attitudes, but I think that might be NAI.

Also, a disclaimer; Moody is not a Town lock for me. Maybe it's because M2H and Haruno were suspicious of him, but I don't feel comfortable saying he's town yet.

Vote: U-Turn Out

 

[MoodyCloud]

also bloody having m2h/mega/smogacc/dawn/me as top 5 town seems to fit with a world where m2h's town core reads were almost all correct, like
m2h : mega/energy, => bloody/tennyson/haruno
bloody : m2h/mega => smogon/dawn/moody

that's 3/5 townies in bloody's town pool, with one of the slots left being in a nk'd townie's inner town core, it just seems like it should tell us something


if bloody is scum then m2H had scum in his townreads, and one of smogonacc/mega is probably scum with him ? does scumbloody just make a town core full of townies ? if the partner is mega then m2h had scum in his inner towncore and should not have been a highest priority threat since he was a shield for bloody, and bloody is not scum together with both tennyson and uto (tennyson made a post saying he'd go uto=>bloody and I don't think he throws both buddies under the bus right off the bat ?)

 

[MoodyCloud]

kind of just spitballing here

 

[HeaLnDeaL]

also bloody having m2h/mega/smogacc/dawn/me as top 5 town seems to fit with a world where m2h's town core reads were almost all correct, like
m2h : mega/energy, => bloody/tennyson/haruno
bloody : m2h/mega => smogon/dawn/moody

that's 3/5 townies in bloody's town pool, with one of the slots left being in a nk'd townie's inner town core, it just seems like it should tell us something


if bloody is scum then m2H had scum in his townreads, and one of smogonacc/mega is probably scum with him ? does scumbloody just make a town core full of townies ? if the partner is mega then m2h had scum in his inner towncore and should not have been a highest priority threat since he was a shield for bloody, and bloody is not scum together with both tennyson and uto (tennyson made a post saying he'd go uto=>bloody and I don't think he throws both buddies under the bus right off the bat ?)

this post is not dark mode friendly, but rip editing ability.

 

[MoodyCloud]

This post doesn't make a ton of sense to me. I can sort of see the logic, but it seems so wifomy and occam's razory. Scum's intent should be to eliminate someone who everyone trusts, since if that one person is right on a vote then they could influence the whole town to vote that way (for some reason that didn't happen yesterday though, so I am a bit suspicious of people who townread m2h but blatantly disregarded his feelings on haruno... the end of day was fast paced though, which has a tendency to cause chaos).

honestly haruno might not have been lynched had he tried a bit, and even m2h really did not seem to try that hard to sell the Uto lynch ? When I was rereading thread I was getting paranoid that m2h not posting the last 12+ hours and kind of just grumbling that the haruno lynch was bad after making a ?? argument that the slot was one of the precious most active slots in the game could mean he just didnt want to try hard enough to change the lynch

 

[MoodyCloud]

sorry m2h don't mean to diss the dead when they can't respond but I guess you were busy irl ? you seeming to take a back seat after you claimed that you were playing like a dead man walking who needed to solve in one day confused me

 

[MoodyCloud]

I don't think bloody is likely to be scum
I also think if bloody is scum then it's exactly bloody/uto/smogonacc

 

[MoodyCloud]

Extremely tentative reads but Bloody and UTO seem like safe scum candidates from what others have said. I want Tennyson and Energy out if only so I don't have to deal with their awful holier-than-thou attitudes, but I think that might be NAI.

Also, a disclaimer; Moody is not a Town lock for me. Maybe it's because M2H and Haruno were suspicious of him, but I don't feel comfortable saying he's town yet.

Vote: U-Turn Out

what about bloody has been said by others that convinced you he was shady ?

 

[MoodyCloud]

also, who are you feeling comfortable saying they're town ?

 

[Tennyson]

m2h was killed, he was thus probably the most threatening slot. He had both energy and mega in his towncore, as well as townreads on bloody/tennyson. He had a sr on uto/dopog (had one on me at one point).

So scum were threatened by either/both :
- mega and energy being town core
- bloody/tennyson (mostly bloody was at risk I think) having a widely town read advocate
- uto/dopog getting heat by a widely town read slot

I would say we can infer that mega/energy are not both scum at the very least, that there is probably scum in uto/dopog, and that bloody/tennyson are probably not both scum either, maybe both town even ? idk I don't see what uto/tennyson are seeing with the bloodyrain slot and tennyson won't give any argument when asked

wrong

 

[Tennyson]

kind of just spitballing here

well then stop

 

[MoodyCloud]

what part of it are you referring to

 

[MoodyCloud]

vote uturnout