NOC Don't Lose Yo Village - Postgame

HeaLnDeaL

Talk to me about your dining tables
is an Artistis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a CAP Contributor Alumnus
How does WIFOM apply when conversion shouldn't have been possible? Just googled the term so maybe I'm not interpreting what you mean correctly though?
 

HeaLnDeaL

Talk to me about your dining tables
is an Artistis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a CAP Contributor Alumnus
I'd like to know the reasons themselves, otherwise it looks like you were trying to keep potential town role information away from town because you were converted.
 
its more that the fact that you're not claiming any rationale behind your tracks suggests that you wanted to claim a report on your buddy to get towncred for the final *ylo phase(mafia align) instead of actually having useful information for town(town align)
 

HeaLnDeaL

Talk to me about your dining tables
is an Artistis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a CAP Contributor Alumnus
Can you still try to explain the subject reasons Cantius? I just need SOMETHING to work with x.x

Blue being the last one to vote SF could potentially be read as a mafia killing his partner when it was 100% known he couldn't be saved. But the way Cantius is acting now is fishy too...

I can also sort of read blue as being the cautious doctor who doesn't talk to much to hide his power role... or the scum who doesn't talk too much to let the bigger talkers take the lynch instead.

Ugh =.=
 
I'd just like to point out that there's no world where I as mafia ask people to lynch d1 and then suggest a lynch on SF, compared to the rest of the game wanting a no lynch d1.

Its unfortunate that i was last on the wagon, I can understand why people would see me as scum, but my timezone is 10-12 hours apart from the others so stuff like that is bound to happen with me.
 

HeaLnDeaL

Talk to me about your dining tables
is an Artistis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a CAP Contributor Alumnus
Cantius, do you have another NOC game I can look at to read your posts? Looking at Matrix 14 now, looking for more (bluedoom provided links earlier in the thread already iirc).
 
Smogon AITP
Pokemon Showdown Classic
 

HeaLnDeaL

Talk to me about your dining tables
is an Artistis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a CAP Contributor Alumnus
Okay, in both of the games above, I noticed Cantius made "(mis)lynch probability posts."

"OK we have one mislynch. Some probability:
1/5 chance that we lynch the Mafia Goon today, resulting in victory
1/5 chance we lynch the Doctor (It can't be PS Mafia without this!), resulting in LYLO with no clears
3/5 chance we lynch an innocent little Vanilla Townie

We have a 1/5 chance of winning today.
We have a 50-50 chance of LYLO with clears/without clears." (http://ps-mafia.proboards.com/thread/691/classic-mafia-gg?page=10) (post

"6p: 1/5 = 20%
5p: 1/4 = 25%
4p: 1/3 = 33%
3p: 1/2 = 50%

+5%, +8%, +17%
BE CAUTIOUS IN WHOM YOU LYNCH. These are theoretical chances. With the assassin's information advantage, the chances are much higher for him to win." (https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/assassin-in-the-palace-game-over-won-by-mafia.3644247/page-4#post-7968468)

In both games, he's also said he loves to tunnel:

"5) I love to tunnel" (same ps proboards page as above link)

"No I'm bad; I'm one of the easiest D1 pushes and I tunnel town in 75% of games when I am. " (https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/assassin-in-the-palace-game-over-won-by-mafia.3644247/page-4#post-7968452)


In both of the above games, the mislynch prob posts were fairly early in Cantius's posts (Cantius subbed into the PS mid game but made the post quickly.

Now, Matrix 14 is a bit different because it has a much larger player set up, which makes mislynch probability posts harder, and near the end of the game people were starting to post solved scenarios which make lynch % posts a bit moot. While in Matrix 14 he didn't flat out state that as town he usually tunnels, his gameplay in the last 20-25 pages or something shows a lot of tunneling on vooper due to him thinking that town vooper acted differently based on his experiences in PS games. And well Cantius was right and vooper was mafia in that game.

------

In all three of the above games, Cantius was town and fairly active, and either outright mentioned tunneling or displayed it. Here, in this game Cantius has not been particularly active, I don't see that much tunneling, and unlike the two lower player games he linked to, here he didn't try to show mislynch probabilities. These all suggest Cantius is not town this game because the behavior is just really different.

Blue's actions reasonably can be read as a doctor taking a quiet and cautious route to stay safe, but lynching SF so late is also troublesome. We can look at how Cantius handled the SF situation too though; he claimed SF visited the deceased, which he'd know if he was mafia. It could maybe be read as testing the waters for a bus, since he didn't vote to lynch SF right away, but he was the third vote and the hammer. The day before SF was lynched a lot of people seemed to not be trusting SF, so maybe it was a bus. But really, the thing that is still most suspicious is that he lacks reasoning for not sharing his n0 action sooner.

I'm not fully committed yet, but based on the past games, I think Cantius has differed from his town game and his behavior is suspicious. I scumlean him right now. I'll give them a chance to plead a case.
 
To HealNDeal:

You are assuming that a player has visibly trends in his playstyle. This is true. However, a player will vary his playstyle due to his desire to improve, his need to vary it so as to not be predictable, or arbitrary changes which cannot be dictated by reason. Your argument is founded on comparing present conduct to the erstwhile, using two games, in both of which I am town; your reasoning is relative. Thus you conclude that this behavioral difference from the quondam is suspect while you have not actually compared my present behavior to a game I have played as scum so as to ascertain that the contrast is alignment-indicative and not merely a peculiarity. Behavior of both alignments must be examined in this comparison. I have never played a forum game as scum, so this other requisite evidence does not exist; therefore, let one discern that this disparity is suspicious but not conclusive due to the lack of the other type of necessary evidence.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 1, Guests: 0)

Top