'LE' Smogn invttonl Gam Thred (Mafia Wins)

Duskfall98

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Ok I have realised Dle is so rand for me, he hasn't really done anything especially scummy that I can see. People are lynching him without any reason as far as I can see apart from he could be on a team with ms. But I mean people were saying I could be on his team yesterday so that's kinda shit reasoning? He could've been a team with any player because he has done nothing of real substance
 

Duskfall98

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Town
Former Hope (DLE, Epik, Moody)
JALMONT
nuxl (DLE, moody, Former)
duskfall98 (moody, DLE, Former)
yeti (moody, ?)

Questionable
3p1k (moody, vooper)
vooper (Da Letter El, Former Hope, nuxl, moodycloud)


Scum
Da Letter El (nuxl, former)
moodycloud


JALMONT what's your POE today?
Same question to MoodyCloud
Yeti would you be willing to vote DLE today if we vote moody tomorrow?
Why is your lynch order with moody after rad, if you think rad is questionable and you have moody in the scum list here?
 
Ok I have realised Dle is so rand for me, he hasn't really done anything especially scummy that I can see. People are lynching him without any reason as far as I can see apart from he could be on a team with ms. But I mean people were saying I could be on his team yesterday so that's kinda shit reasoning? He could've been a team with any player because he has done nothing of real substance
1. The way MS panicked after Texas's reveal post
2. MS's own awkward wording (I really need to find that post from D1) about DLE
3. The fact DLE "happens" to come back and catch up when MS is about to be lynched
4. maybe this one is too personal, but knowing I'm town, when I saw MS posting a lynch vote on me and then ditching, that implied to be it was part of some post-lynch plot to mislynch me in a future day. DLE then happens to come in a few pages later saying he truly believes that MS and I could be scum. IMO that's because he's scum and saw or was the one who decided that MS should place that vote and go for a mislynch on me.
5. His POE is just awful. Like, nuxl is never scum here. The fact he chooses to post a POE with no actual credible or suspicious people is pretty telling imo.
 
Why is your lynch order with moody after rad, if you think rad is questionable and you have moody in the scum list here?
Because DLE/Epik is my solve. But I'm willing to let a Moody lynch happen if a DLE lynch follows despite the fact I think he's town.

ie, the POE is so small and we have 3 mislynches and I feel like town can't lose this game at this point.
 

Yeti

dark saturday
is a Community Contributor Alumnus
Ok I have realised Dle is so rand for me, he hasn't really done anything especially scummy that I can see. People are lynching him without any reason as far as I can see apart from he could be on a team with ms. But I mean people were saying I could be on his team yesterday so that's kinda shit reasoning? He could've been a team with any player because he has done nothing of real substance
this is kinda how i see it

dle has no reason to consider him town but also not many to consider him scum except he's just there and not tied/untied to any player strongly

he and 3p1k aren't doing anything to save the game if he IS scum/they're together, though. same old iDLE as ever in the face of defeat if scum.
 

Duskfall98

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Because DLE/Epik is my solve. But I'm willing to let a Moody lynch happen if a DLE lynch follows despite the fact I think he's town.

ie, the POE is so small and we have 3 mislynches and I feel like town can't lose this game at this point.
I dunno because moody/you is also a solve so that means all 4 of you are potential scum. Though even if you pick any 3 out of that I still think scum would flip, both scum are most likely in that 4.
 

Yeti

dark saturday
is a Community Contributor Alumnus
versus moody where we have stronger evidence imo:

metal sonic doesn't self-pres to om room d1
he votes moody, i think who only had 1 or 2 other votes d1
he never makes a case at all why anyone should vote moody over him and om room
in fact since he's a lynch candidate not self-pressing properly he's more likely to spook people off moody/give them bad vibes

he did this to distance from moody knowing that there were very slim odds moody ever gets traction with ms's weird vote onto him.

additionally one of the two things moody did d1 was naked vote me then get into a semantics "it was rvs!!" argument about it d2, when ms went aggro af against me d2. scumteam plan to discredit me - detected. thwarted. defeated.
 

Duskfall98

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It is very frustrating that people sign up to an invitational where they know a high standard is expected and just idle it away tbh when other players are playing well and trying hard.
 
late d1 vote count

Moody (4) - Texas (#2117), Metal Sonic (#2079), Yeti (#2249), Vooper (#2220)
Metal Sonic (3) - Josh (#2168), Duskfall (#1704), Nuxl (#1406)
Om Room (3) - Epik (#1334), Former (#931), DLE (#2169)
Former (2) - OM Room (#166), Moody (#2115)
Not voting - Jalmont

Texas votes om room immediately after this vc, followed on the same page by Yeti :

Om Room (5) - Epik (#1334), Former (#931), DLE (#2169), Texas (#2274), Yeti (#2299)
Metal Sonic (3) - Josh (#2168), Duskfall (#1704), Nuxl (#1406)
Moody (2) - Metal Sonic (#2079), Vooper (#2220)
Former (2) - OM Room (#166), Moody (#2115)
Not voting - Jalmont

This keeps the counterwagon to MS big enough to make people on other wagons give up about lynching outside of OM/MS. Nuxl has a post where he tells Duskfall that he has to choose between OM and MS, and Dusk abandons the MS wagon to get onto OM despite a MS lynch still being on the cards

final d1 vote count

Om Room (6) - Epik (#1334), Former (#931), DLE (#2169), Texas (#2274), Yeti (#2299), Duskfall98 (#2308)
Metal Sonic (2) - Josh (#2168), Nuxl (#1406)
Moody (2) - Metal Sonic (#2079), Vooper (#2220)
Former (2) - OM Room (#166), Moody (#2115)
Not voting - Jalmont

So Epik/FH stayed parked onto OM for a long time, and the ones who jumped ship from my wagon and then Metal sonic's, effectively guaranteeing MS's survival, are Texas / Yeti / Duskfall . Noticeably, MS didn't even need to self pres onto OM.


fast forward to d2 final votecount

Metal Sonic (6): Duskall98 (#2372), nuxl (#2377), Yeti (#3599), Former Hope (#3755), Da Letter El (#3880), Texas Cloverleaf (#3901)
Former Hope (1): Metal Sonic (#3760)
3p1k (1): JALMONT (#2923)
vooper (1): 3p1k (#3086)
Yeti (1): MoodyCloud (#3167)

This time there is no significant counterwagon. Dusk/Nuxl placed down their vote around the same time and did not move it, as opposed to the Yeti/FH/DLE/Texas later wave of votes (vooper says he intended to vote MS but didnt want to hammer). Dusk/Yeti/DLE/Texas were all on the MS wagon at eod1 and had all hopped onto his counterwagon at eod1, in fact the only vote on OM's d1 wagon absent from the MS one was Epik's.


It seems unlikely that there were more than one scum on OM's wagon, I believe the scum team should have been aware by the time night 1 hit that MS was probably going to go down either d2 or d3 at the latest, they had managed to secure an easy mislynch to get but in a game where mafia must be very careful about the ties they leave behind because two red flips means game over, it doesn't make much sense for them to hard defend MS on day 2. If anything, people defending him on day 1 then suddenly wanting nothing to do with him would warrant suspicion, though I can't be bothered to reread everything looking for that rn.

I feel like this should inform where we'll go today but I'm kind of too tired to draw conclusions from it at the moment actually
u wrote all this and left me hanging with no conclusion
 
Dude DLE you cant be serious right now if you are town

the good
yeti - nightkilled tonight - if yeti isn't killed we can maybe reconsider this. i dont remember if she started the MS fight, if so she's probably good otherwise i could see MS going after her for town credit but i doubt this majorly.
df - nightkilled after that. i imagine mafia will wait and see if any shade gets thrown is way and maybe reconsider him with someone like FH but obviously that's not plausible atm (or maybe throw me in there instead heh). Nuxl is a good case of what mafia probably looks to try and do at that point. fake confusion

I think going after DF and Yeti was a big mistake by MS, I'm not sure why he would spend time going after those two (I imagine it was because they went after him first but i don't know that for sure because haven't read lol). Probably should've just pushed mislynch baits like vooper/3p1k/moody/me but I guess even then they would need 1 more mislynch if my math is right.

Offwagon voters day 1 looks bad because of how MS opened wanting to push the OM room wagon. I don't think that means both maf are off but I would reckon it's probably 1 on 1 off. I think the 1 off looks most like nuxl.

3p1k - i throw him here now because I think him defending MS is actually a good look. with only one mislynch i reckon mafia HAS to use that opportunity to either bus or be off-wagon. they wont wanna get caught defending at that stage because that's just looks incredibly sus.

vooper - MS had him as a "question mark" which is good enough for me rn. tonally im ok. obviously he's a problem slot that's going to get to the end so he needs to step it the fuck up if he's town.

the bad
nuxl - again what i said before on his argument with MS. we also know from past experience that as mafia nuxl posts less and less. he hasn't been present at all today which is a vast change from days before. you would think his #1 scumread would really push him towards continuing to contribute, not decrease.

moody - dude has said nothing substantial recently and seemingly has no opinions or thoughts beyond asking others to expand on their legitimate thoughts. also had the time to bold colors in the vote count and write lots of words but no time to formulate a conclusion. ok.

the ugly
DLE - behavior makes no fuckin sense EITHER alignment. im not really sure if it's just me but i have no idea why he's acting like what he's saying is a foregone conclusion and that we should be taking his word as the truth. so i'm not sure if it's bad/weird play because he's mafia, or bad play because he's barely here and just out of touch with the game (But then again I'm not here and I feel like I'm pretty in touch????)

i think his push on josh when literally no one else read him that way looks bad but it's twofold. one is it's town DLE and he just reads him wrong (possible). why would he spend time attacking the most town read player in the game knowing that's going to bring attention on him? of course he could know that they just kill josh and the point is null (see the next sentence) or that he was just genuinely off, idk. the other thought here is that it's a distraction so he stays away from the OM wagon (which MS can then push).

yeah idk i just find his behavior today out of touch with what people are actually talking about. again it's him drumming to his own beat instead engaging with everybody else. i'm not sure how i want to read that.

it's funny that dle's 2210 is exactly what i thought except that I thought MS was buddying up to texas and josh not josh the other way around.

Former - I think he's town but very difficult to read especially because his interactions are very nuanced and hard to get at from where I'm at having not closely read into him. Has a lot of dumb takes and weird thoughts (like "75% of the time your first reads in the game are right" uhhhhhhhhhh?????????????) I don't read into the MS vote on him because it could go either way. I do think MS was pushing him before hand before it became clear he was going to be lynched so that's good for him. But yeah, difficulty here is that he's very hard to read.
 

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