'LE' Smogn invttonl Gam Thred (Mafia Wins)

[JALMONT]

vooper you need to give a shit if you're village here fyi

 

[Yeti]

I think jalmont is most likely town but at this point I cant discount the possibility of anyone until I can reread and actually see what metal sonic connections there are

 

[Yeti]

If you question that I'm scum youd better have a darn good reason why you're falling for scum paranoia in keeping me alive

 

[Da Letter El]

because you've been wrong about literally everything that's happened in this game and at some point i have to stop ignoring that. not only have you been wrong but literally every mislynched villager think you are mafia. what else can i do? yeah i can try and reason myself out of you being mafia (i mean i think nuxl is more scummy than you) but if i'm going to be bitched at then i'm going to vote you because at least i can point to everyone else's opinion on you as justification. my feels aren't strong enough to try and make any hero votes

Right:

I was right on ms in a position where it literally would make me more scummy and look worse to do so.

I was right that flipping moody was a bad play and the vote should always have been fh/nuxl in some order.

I've correctly TR'ed everyone besides josh that's died but I don't think that's much of an accomplishment.

I feel like I'm right on the fact that MS vote was a bus and that we should always vote out fh/nuxl at some point to resolve the two people who stood to potentially benefit from it but this is probably preemptive.

_

Wrong:

I was wrong on om when he played drastically different from his town game in matrix. I don't really know how I was supposed to arrive at a TR there

I was wrong on josh who's really hard to read and I got to have egg on my face when he flipped t. I got to look extra stupid when one of my SRs on josh was trying to keep texas from being sidetracked d1 and feeling texas wouldn't get sidetracked there, and then texas getting way sidetracked d2 made me realize that josh knows texas way better than I do and vice verse

I was wrong on fh but even he recognized he should probably be part of the poe for much of d3/d4. I still hold that fh + nuxl resolves the vote from d2 because those are the people who could have stood to bus there. If we ended the game from lynching the other one in it this wouldn't be an issue but nuxl's simply played better than fh and people weren't buying in so idk what to say

 

[JALMONT]

There are none because I never interacted with him (at least in a serious way).

Yeah I mean Yeti you can call it paranoia but I do think it's important to reconsider my reads. FH thought you could be mafia and I have to respect that. I do think it's unlikely - but it's just hard to tell after how hard FH swung on you yesterday. I would've loved to see if you started out pushing DLE or not and then FH comes in just to see if you really were committed to voting DLE. Now I'm not so sure so it does seem plausible that you could've been fake bussing there. You are right that it's not exactly the most likely scenario. Either way I don't think I can vote you at all today so there's really not much to worry about you in terms of you being lynched but yeah I mean I definitely have to consider it.

 

[JALMONT]

FH really fucked up me here because I still just can't wrap my head around anything he said. I mean he was totally unhelpful. And now I have to fucking deal with that. I can't play my game; I'm stuck playing everyone else's game and do I really have a choice. I fkin dont know

but i guess if i believe yeti is mafia then i have to vote vooper? but then like why would asek prod vooper if he wasn't town? fh was getting lynched anyways so he really didn't need to swap his vote which makes me think he's town. so then yeti is mafia?

Is that really my choice here? Yeti or vooper?

i have 0 clue. 0 idea

 

[JALMONT]

Right:

I was right on ms in a position where it literally would make me more scummy and look worse to do so.

I was right that flipping moody was a bad play and the vote should always have been fh/nuxl in some order.

I've correctly TR'ed everyone besides josh that's died but I don't think that's much of an accomplishment.

I feel like I'm right on the fact that MS vote was a bus and that we should always vote out fh/nuxl at some point to resolve the two people who stood to potentially benefit from it but this is probably preemptive.

_

Wrong:

I was wrong on om when he played drastically different from his town game in matrix. I don't really know how I was supposed to arrive at a TR there

I was wrong on josh who's really hard to read and I got to have egg on my face when he flipped t. I got to look extra stupid when one of my SRs on josh was trying to keep texas from being sidetracked d1 and feeling texas wouldn't get sidetracked there, and then texas getting way sidetracked d2 made me realize that josh knows texas way better than I do and vice verse

I was wrong on fh but even he recognized he should probably be part of the poe for much of d3/d4. I still hold that fh + nuxl resolves the vote from d2 because those are the people who could have stood to bus there. If we ended the game from lynching the other one in it this wouldn't be an issue but nuxl's simply played better than fh and people weren't buying in so idk what to say

I don't think hedging where you did would've been a scum move, I would've given it more credence because you wouldn't know if MS was mafia or not. If anything I'm MORE suspicious when people just "know" who is mafia. Unless you are being really vague all of the time, absolute certainty really scares me because that indicates knowledge of alignment.

You TR FH? What? I mean am I missing something here. I feel like you were completely avoiding talking about MS until when you came in on deadline day and did that thing with FH and then voted MS. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

fk me

 

[Da Letter El]

Yeti - DLE
Yeti - Nuxl (is this possible? someone let me know)
DLE - viper
Nuxl - viper

These are the only plausible teams right?

DLE/Nuxl is impossible for obvious reasons. I don't think Yeti-viper is possible given what happened yesterday (why would yeti risk that? she would have to be incredibly confident that the vote wasn't going to change. way too much unnecessary risk there).

The first is very probable for me. IDK I think the second is plausible (have they interacted much? I feel like they haven't). I don't have any strong feelings about the second or third.

the only reasonable argument you could make for this suboptimal play for my partner would be yeti who has held a tr on me all game and i felt this way d1 and d2

and

this series of quotes

the only yeti team i see is dle/yeti and lynching dle solves that

dont think dusk is scum, have a pretty strong tonal read and i think fighting with ms was pretty dumb

hi :)

yeti said earlier that metal sonic was more of a planner or something so he proabbly doesnt approve of what jalmont did 5 hours after confirmation phase?????

anyway. i dont really think there's a lot to say wrt today. anyone with vooper in their poe that already has dle/moody in it should consolidate for FH in their poe bc 3p1k and vooper isnt a team and otherwise (assuming the poe is fully green) the loss is to something like one of 3p1k vooper fh and jalmont.

thought bomb

MS+dusk: would be a very well played pair. good job if that's the case. i dont think so but honestly it would be incredibly played- there's just too many things- MS lets him call out the nuxl vs ms as metal sonic looking incredibly scummy as a result; the tunnel onto d2; metal spewing him so much, it just doesnt seem reasonable.

MS+yeti: almost as similarly unlikely as above; with yeti interjecting with calling ms's reads on her/other players in the game; calling ms out for "spewing words" at nuxl, MS's spew; the concurrent d2 fight, yeah this would be well fought if that were the case.

MS+3p1k: nah i dont think so. means early d2 he has to think it's MS over me as he told me so himself; call him scum earlier in the day, then indirectly waffle on his read on MS after it's getting a lot of traction; and even during eod STILL has to waffle on this read here. progression feels genuine and tunneling on vooper seems like an Interesting separate lynch instead of sheeping texas' alternative team. meanwhile MS tosses weird shade at him d1; and 3p1k puts the MS in his team d1 instead of calling it tvt or whatever the fuck hed use to defend his partner MS (where btw buddying is good here!)

MS+jalmont: outside of MS putting him slightly over null right before his spat with me and not saying anything wrt his slot at all in d2 there's really nothing going here; and jalmont calling him scum when he actually starts content when he admittedly said he was at page 30 seems unlikely; almost hard to be faked imo really. jalmont apparently hasnt caught up w rest of the game either. doesnt really mean much but maybe metal tries to do more w his partners like yeti says

MS+vooper: d1 tvt on legit everything seems pretty bad and his hard defense of him later. d2 vooper continued to push the ms lynch d2 and the interaction with MS felt genuine wrt the unvote? ms throws him in a few teams pretty early d2 and starkly goes from a progression around 3300 (i do not tr viper) to spewing 3400ish (viper is town because he unvoted me) which is sort of weird to treat a partner ig. poe this game relatively similar to mine. vooper + 3p1k isnt a team so it probably points to more of his favor

MS+FH: this is the pair that pings me the most with early, just weird posts and weird townreads on each other from both ms + fh; the angles they push d1 look remotely the same(nuxl + om). but then late d2 fh makes a post like "team in my head is ms vooper and dle" which is really weird considering maybe he has more opportunity to let ms live? he also brings MS to L-1 on the wagon which seems to be interesting for something 1. pre deadline and 2. this would have been communicated beforehand (MS's surprise of being L-1?) his poe and overall posts today doesnt seem too horrible wrt lynching dle first so either fh is town or the team is MS + FH + moody

MS + moody: not much has chnaged i guess; this is more poe than anything. i guess reading over page 24-27 MS's retroactive push on moody was interesting as MS doesnt seem too surpised and sort of just echoes dusk. doesnt really push moody harder than i think he feels he needs to and slots him in a null readlist early which historically he's done with his partners in the past. the late day vote probably i shouldnt be giving too much credit as MS could have voted moody in the event where it didnt catch much traction; similarly didnt really make too much of an effort to push the lynch here. d2 MS seems to toy with the idea of putting him in a team but inevitably just sort of calls him town.

MS+DLE: there's not really a lot that directly connects this team when it comes to actively pairing and interacting, but what is notable is that DLE 1. enters with a strong townread early on MS off of weird reasons such as "metal wouldnt say hes bad" and 2. doesnt really progress on this read in regards to how it develops over the course of the day. metal also slots him in his null list and yet does throw him in teams early in d2, but once he finished puppeteering texas a little bit it inevitably let him to "read" DLE as town. blocking off his progression of his metal sonic and nuxl read under the guise of "i still havent read nuxl vs metal sonic" except with the fact that DLE's end of day 1 poe was me and two other flipped townies. the end of day 2 vote doesnt mean much; it's a late hop wagon and the intial unvote seems weird; could have just been waiting for a last minute townie switch?

overall team could just be ms + moody + dle or like ms + fh + dle and it probably just doesnt fucking matter; i'm pretty sure it ends with any sort of subset of the last 3.

i dont think vooper/3p1k are ever a team given the MS scum lynch so it's probably more beneficial to consolidate a poe that includes such. Yeti feel free to case me on whatever order you want to go in. DLE is acting more weird today than FH so i might want to go there first unless you wanna spin me on moody.

which I called out

the nuxl deference here to yeti feels weird especially since I get the sense nuxl TRs dusk more; why isn't he directing things towards dusk?

Nuxl explain pls. is it just deference to yeti being the better player in your mind between yeti/dusk and still a TR or what

pages 162-163 it's just entirely weird

 

[Da Letter El]

I probably fucked up quoting there oh well

 

[JALMONT]

No it's cool, thanks for linking.

IDK I just fear that there's no way I can convince myself out of voting you. Sigh.

 

[Da Letter El]

I don't think hedging where you did would've been a scum move, I would've given it more credence because you wouldn't know if MS was mafia or not. If anything I'm MORE suspicious when people just "know" who is mafia. Unless you are being really vague all of the time, absolute certainty really scares me because that indicates knowledge of alignment.

You TR FH? What? I mean am I missing something here. I feel like you were completely avoiding talking about MS until when you came in on deadline day and did that thing with FH and then voted MS. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

fk me

huh where did I say I TR'ed FH? I SR'ed FH for most of the game

I talked about how hard reading MS was on d1 because he's fucking crazy but that if I had to guess from his d1 tone I would say probably town prior to reading ms vs nuxl, then his d2 he just started scrambling and was forgetting/mixing up reads he made earlier and so I SR'ed him because he couldn't keep his stories straight

 

[JALMONT]

I misread your post sorry

 

[Da Letter El]

No it's cool, thanks for linking.

IDK I just fear that there's no way I can convince myself out of voting you. Sigh.

I don't know what to say i'm town playing my town game and this is nuxl playing his scum game in a position only fh and nuxl would get anything out of an ms bus

 

[Da Letter El]

I don't think I kill 3p1k there either since I shouldnt be on anyone's hypo rad team after he voted me at f7

like an 3p1k kill only helps to take some pressure off viper, and with viper id probably just kill yeti if they both were gonna want to vote viper

 

[Da Letter El]

yeah I don't think I kill 3p1k with any team especially since his vote on me was really mostly desperation of "well I cant vote viper bc no one else will" and other people are pushing me way more since im either with viper or im not, and if im not with viper then id want 3p1k around to potentially ml viper, and if I am with viper I just kill yeti.

 

[Yeti]

Everyone should reread metal sonic with the other living players and try to figure out what he was doing from that and who can and cant be w/w

If we can rule out ppl of the PoE we increase our odds so much bc that also impacts potential scumteams

 

[JALMONT]

I literally have no idea.

I flip flop on everyone. I can create valid narratives for everyone being mafia. My philosophy is that the course of action that is the easiest and makes the most sense is what the mafia do.

In that case, I think Yeti and Nuxl are town (not bussing). At the same time, I know at least one mafia bussed on the MS vote. I would imagine Yeti is the most likely out of the three to do so given activity level. I would probably follow that up with Nuxl but DLE is there too because I think he stands to benefit from voting correctly at that point.

My thought on vooper is that he's town because - OK NVM WTF vooper is left with DLE Nuxl as the mafia pair???????????????????? Meh Idk a lot of things point to voop being mafia but at the same time it's like, he hard defended df and hasn't used that to get town cred. I don't think he's prodded by asek unless he's town (he would be prodded by teammate). Didn't vote MS and was overall super wishy washy on him. Fuck I guess it doesn't matter either way because the mafia isn't killing based off on making vooper looking good, they're relying on one of the better looking three to push the mislynch.

if yeti is mafia why not kill me and force mislynch on vooper. with 3p1k it has to be a lot easier. yeti + nuxl don't want me around because i suspect nux and 3p1k wants voop. 3p1k is easier to convince than me.

ok

and then why would yeti cfd from imslynch to mislynch. such a huge risk. yeah i would have to believe yeti's taking a ton of risks for no reason as mafia. ok

if we really believe there's no scum theater until last possible moment, that would implicate dle...who would be partners with viper? possible.

why not just kill yeti and then me and 2p1k go at it.fk

it's nuxl trying to put me in additional worlds bc im not on a team with 3p1k after that vote and he wants to argue i'm in every possible team. or you're just scum.

what. i thought 2p1k was voting you.....

OK I'm back to DLE + viper lol

 

[JALMONT]

Oh nevermind I understand what dle's saying now. doesn't really change much for me tho.

 

[Yeti]

3p1k and nuxl were both certifiably not with dle going into the night

Makes sense to me I guess to kill in them and get better wifom around dle.

I think we should never lynch outside of dle vooper today

Agreed?

 

[Yeti]

Fmpov nuxl is only scum eith vooper and lynching vooper solves that. It's not jalmont nuxl it just cant be theres no gd way

 

[Yeti]

Also idk if asek poking someone means much, it's possible he was ignoring his teammate (or dle was just as idle lmao) or both got poked to be active

Like with dle's life on the line if they are together it makes sense to poke vooper to vote

 

[ResonanceDragon1te]

This'll be good.

 

[Yeti]

.wat

 

[JALMONT]

.wat

lol i saw that post and fsr it scared the fuck out of me thought i was in the wrong subforum

 

[JALMONT]

Also idk if asek poking someone means much, it's possible he was ignoring his teammate (or dle was just as idle lmao) or both got poked to be active

Like with dle's life on the line if they are together it makes sense to poke vooper to vote

ya i buy it

i agree with you. as paranoid as i want to be no way i can convince myself to vote for you. or nuxl for that matter. i was wrong on 3p1k (v wrong) so there's no reason to trust myself on this either