Lockdown Mafia 2: Hail To The Chief - Game Over, Mafia Wins!

[reachzero]

Holy smoke, the thread is totally dead for days at a time, then I get home from church and more than fifty posts since the last time I posted.....so anyway, it seems I need to explain my logic a littler further. In a game in which we know absolutely nothing to start out, you want to talk as much as possible before you make an accusation, to give someone guilty enough time to say something stupid or suspicious. You don't want to roll someone random with literally no evidence. To suggest a totally blind vote in the very first post is totally illogical unless you're trying to deflect the lynch away from yourself (which admittedly might not be such a bad idea if your name is "Chris is Me", and therefore rather vulnerable to namerolls yourself). In fairness to CIM, Tenken has indeed revealed himself to be a rather shaky player, considering how incredibly questionable his style of defense has been, especially his accusation of billymills (he's defending me, that seems suspicious?). I'm still very suspicious of CIM, but I have to admit that Tenken looks like a very bad mafia player trying to cover up the fact that he is mafia. It's true that you would expect the mafia to stop one of their teammates from acting that ridiculously stereotypically mafia in the thread, but to be honest it's kindof hard to imagine any non-mafia logic at all that would propose billymills as a target in the way that Tenken did. So even though I realize that it is highly improbable that both CIM and Tenken are mafia, the evidence against Tenken is pretty overwhelming, in my opinion, so Chris looks pretty good by comparison. Basically, if Tenken is bad, I think Chris is "good" but not very bright; if Tenken is good I think Chris is very likely bad. However, I have a very hard time believing that anyone would say the things that Tenken has said if they were clean.

tl;dr, "I still don't like what Chris did, but Tenken has acted too suspicious to ignore now, so maybe Chris got lucky"

Withdraw vote

Fire Tenken

Edit: just realized I forgot to include an answer to the question of who I would recruit if I were mafia: I would pick someone whom I knew to be good without being such a big "name" that they were a likely kill (and ironically, lynch target). So I think I would take someone like HD.

 

[HD]

fire tenken

IMO, tenken is mafia. I put my reasons into several posts (http://www.smogon.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2345049&postcount=130), and I don't feel like waiting until tomorrow after school since the thread would be updated by then.

edit: reach :D

 

[Accent]

Ok I've finished the summary, you can read it in the previous page. I tried to put in at little info as possible while still mentionning everything that could make anyone look suspicious.

Writing this allowed me to get a better overview of the state of the game myself, and here's what I think:

Tenken did contradict himself a few times but he was also the victim of a few misunderstanding and under pressure. Now while earlier today I was convinced he was a rather dumb villager, now I have more doubts, because he did act in a suspicious way - you could think his teammates would have asked him to stop talking, but he did stop at some point, so it's rather strange.

Rook was also suspicious. If you reread all his posts, some are quite clever, but some are very defensive, and it's a possibility that the clever ones occurred to him because he is mafia (for example he pointed out that a mafioso's teammates would stop him from being too dumb*). However there are all the posts in which he defended Mekkah and Chris for apparently no reason, unless both of them are mafia too which I doubt for now.

Jumpluff was indeed a bit aggressive towards Tenken and that is a bit suspicious, though I suspect most of that is due to misunderstandings.

Other notable posters whose few posts could very well be from a mafia but tbh don't contain enough substance to deduce anything IMO (just read them): HD, billymills.

Now the correct list of 'idle' players (the one jumpluff posted was oddly incorrect):

• blue_light (only a few useless posts)
• Johann
• jermy (kinda)
• RaRe555
• macle
• tredge
• Thunda (only a few useless posts)
• Trick Room (correct me if I'm wrong)

*BTW that argument looks solid but I will say this: 'Sikh Assassin'.

 

[billymills]

I will continue to defend Tenken. I just have no reason to believe he would post if he could actually talk to people, and there's absolutely no reason to believe he would be recruited.

I will Fire jumpluff, simply on the basis that her first post responding to Mekkah was far too long and wordy. I also believe she's a bit too hasty to point fingers.

Also, that margin was quite suspicious accent. Care to comment?

 

[Accent]

What margin what are you talking about no I'm not mafia stop​

 

[Trick Room]

I think that we should actually lay off tenken a little bit because in a game in mafia-scum i've been playing this thing has been happening a person that isn't the best player gets accused and can't defend themselves well so they end up getting lynched and flip town. In the game I'm playing we're at lylo because of this and of course we don't want that. I think Rook may be scum because he is overly defensive, I think that he wants to vote tenken to fit in and stay clear from any fire.

 

[Rook]

You know that I withdrew my vote, right? I even argued that Tenken isn't mafia. If I really wanted to fit in, i would do what half the other people are doing and just sit quietly and not act suspicous (aka bandwagon). I'll admit, I have been acting kind of suspicious though, so I would see why you would vote for me.

 

[Trick Room]

Why would I vote you Ninjask is confirmed mafia dumbass!
The defensiveness is my main suspicion for now.

 

[askaninjask]

Why would I vote you Ninjask is confirmed mafia dumbass!
The defensiveness is my main suspicion for now.

you are unintelligent and have contributed nothing

 

[Trick Room]

Thank you for your opinion.

 

[jumpluff]

I would be suspicious of CIM, but he spoke up right away. Which is, in my mind, not a mafia move. He just wants to lead the villager, and all the attention/power that comes along with it.

Jumpluff, on the other hand, submitted a very long post soon after Mekkah singled her out. That is slightly suspicious.

Tenken is probably the second most thoroughly proven villager, behind askaninjask.

As I stated, SDS PMed me on IRC to let me know the mafia had started. I don't understand why it would be that suspicious even if I had been lurking anyway, as it would just mean I had been biding my time and finally had something to say.

Lynching someone based on being wordy is utterly ridiculous, what flimsy reasoning. I had a lot of things to say because of the very long thread, and because I like to support my reasoning unlike some people itt. I don't understand why posting formally is remotely mafia-like. Try harder. Then again, you guys lynched CN last game for actually having a clue what was going on, so... It's also ridiculous that I keep having to defend myself based on my personal life -- you know, being Australian, sleeping in, my time zone, being on IRC and not Smogon.

Accent, I missed reachzero's single post and thunda (might have deleted him from the list accidentally), sorry about that. jermy has since posted, iirc.

Trick Room, try contributing something to the discussion.

 

[Seven Deadly Sins]

by the way: confirming that i did pm jumpluff for activity

 

[Tenken]

I would appreciate it if everyone finding flaws with my play could keep them for post game, so I could hopefully improve. I really don't know where you guys are seeing so many mistakes, but I guess I am biased and read what I think.

Also, I would say Rook is more likely mafia over billymills right now, but idk. Apparantly I look very scummy, so there is little reason for him to unvote me.

Thats all I guess I can say.

 

[billymills]

I'm not seeing how defending you would make me mafia, unless you were mafia. Care to explain?

 

[jumpluff]

Posting over and over to say the same stuff is getting boring... jesus.

Tenken, I'm not accusing you for the fun of criticising your play, I'm saying what I really think. I still think you are the most likely target, so it's logical I stay voting you... but even if you die, we won't know what you were due to cardflip. I'm not going to bother reiterating my justifications, but there's just nobody I think is mafia more than you. I'm beginning to wonder about those who haven't posted at all, though. Where did Class and reachzero go? Where are tredge and RaRe555 and Johann and macle? blue_light and thunda and Trick Room? None of these people have contributed to the discussion except Class and reachzero, who won't come back and defend their points. I can't vote them all, so I'm going to pick one for a simple reason: they keep posting, and despite repeated urges to talk more / contribute more positively, they just keep trolling. Feigning activity / cluttering up the thread to cause confusion, maybe?

Fire Trick Room.

 

[Tenken]

Oh wow, I just realized roles weren't revealed =\. Only read the rules when the game got posted, guess I forgot.

That makes me look bad for not paying attention.
But it also makes this game pretty pointless imo. How can we analyze voting pattern (main reason you guys want to lynch), if roles don't get revealed? In the end we will only see if someone bandwagons often, but that isn't very helpful, since even townies bandwagons due to having nothing to add.

This game pretty much seems completely luck based now, or cop dependent. I'm not really seeing how the town can even play this anymore. =\

 

[cim]

Oh wow, I just realized roles weren't revealed =\. Only read the rules when the game got posted, guess I forgot.

That makes me look bad for not paying attention.
But it also makes this game pretty pointless imo. How can we analyze voting pattern (main reason you guys want to lynch), if roles don't get revealed? In the end we will only see if someone bandwagons often, but that isn't very helpful, since even townies bandwagons due to having nothing to add.

You know since you don't want to play this game you could just vote yourself and end it now :P

And that solidifies my vote. You're the epitome of the "bad mafia or very dumb townie" vote. I guess if a Trick Room lynch is viable I'll jump on it as he's been inactive / crazy but I don't feel compelled to unvote you right now.

Granted, a ton of people look suspicious today (and Trick Room just pisses me off), and I'll talk about them when I'm not late to class.

This game pretty much seems completely luck based now, or cop dependent. I'm not really seeing how the town can even play this anymore. =\

Yeah, most mafia games shouldn't be based on roles. Whole "informed minority versus uninformed majority" thing. "Vote analysis" is a useful tool but leading a lynch against the "wrong" player (i.e. a townie) isn't very avoidable and I've seen mafia lead lynches against their own kind before, so it's not like card flip gives as much information as you imply.

 

[Seven Deadly Sins]

DAY OVER

With three votes, Tenken found himself on the losing end of this meeting. In fact, with his inability to get his point across or defend himself or anything, it's strange to see how he got onto the board in the first place!

Tenken has been fired. It is now Night 1.

Also, a couple notes.

1: Going forward, anyone who does not post at least once in the thread with a vote will automatically vote for themselves. If someone does this at least twice, they will likely be subbed out. Joining this game means promising activity, so I expect it from each and every one of you. EDIT: No Vote is an acceptable vote as long as you post with some substance.

2: blue_light has requested to be subbed out, and has been replaced with LightWolf.

3: Tenken for worst player ever. HERE ARE THE ROLES SINCE YOU CAN'T READ

 

[Seven Deadly Sins]

Headlines read that apparently a scandal has formed surrounding Rook involving allegations of frequent sleep-urination from a former lover. He is forced to step down while he tries to sort out the mess.

Rook has been forced to resign. It is now Day 2.

Also, ANOTHER revision to the BG rule (whatever).

If the Free Agent successfully protects the same person twice in the game, the Cutthroats will receive the Free Agent's name at the beginning of the next day.

 

[LightWolf]

So yes before getting in to the middle of this I'd like to point out one little thing that no one seemed to notice day 1.

Tyranidos first posts a somewhat defending post on Tenken's case but then after being silent for some time he suddenly votes Tenken without stating any reason at all. I find that pretty strange, could I hear your reasons for voting him if you defended him at first?

 

[Class]

Well, Rook and Tenken are gone and a lot of our previous discussion was based upon them. So, to follow an example:

changing vote

Also agreeing with LightWolf, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was another act of stupidity (idiots like meh!).
like following the examples of someone more knowledgeable even though they might not even have their facts right or if those statements are even pertinent

 

[Trick Room]

Why did you vote him?

 

[Class]

to get him to talk, which he hasn't the entire game. Other people have done it, so I'm following suit so we can see some more things happen.

 

[billymills]

Fire Trick Room

To get him to say something interesting, which he hasn't the entire game. Other people have, so I'm asking him to follow suit so we can see some more things happen.

 

[Tyranidos]

well i thought tenken was defending himself retardedly because he was inexperienced, so i gave him the benefit of the doubt. however, when jumpluff made the long post with all the reasons why tenken should be voted for, i was convinced, so i voted for him.