NOC Lumiose Legends Mafia - GAME OVER (Mafia Win)

Okay. For the sake of this post I am going to tinfoil CK as not clear because I guess scum vig is possible but I don't think I'm there with it yet.

Splitting the game into 3 worlds:
1) AG is town
2) AG is mafia but masons are town
3) AG is mafia and masons are mafia

1)
In the AG is town world it is literally just AG/Mekkah/Vizh +1 for town.

This is probably never NE because I think "protective backup" is a role which makes no sense without a protective role to backup, and so marlyne would need to be town. I think in this world the last townie is either CK or marlyne off of setup reasons with Sunny being mafia hard pushing AG, Hydro being UTR mafia, and whichever of CK/marlyne being the leftover.

2)
This world is more complicated but the last 2 town can be marlyne and CK together. In this world it is actually possible for NE to be town and is more likely that Hydro/Sunny could be. In this world Sunny is still pushing 3/5 remaining townies, or 3/4 if he is he one.

3)
In this world we are just looking for +1 mafia and is probably a Sunny town world because he is afaict the main advocate for solving/voting the masons. I think atp the last could basically be anyone so I hope this is not the world.

Ultimately I believe CK is town so like. CK/marlyne with masons as last town is possible? I think NE always has to go before marlyne if we want to get rid of them because I have no idea what a protective role backup does in a game with no protective role.
 
I think I am probably fine with that, let me noodle on it a little.

s!CK seems possible but I think the vig sort of fits in with the other vigs in JALMONT/AG as an early game vig to give town some KP early, and then multiple later on

D4 EoD seems very strange to be s/s partnered with NE/AG and so if NE does flip town then game over, but if NE flips scum then I imagine that's better for AG potentially being town

Didn't you confirm NE has the backup already though D3?
 
Wouldn't this imply like a gravedig which raises the question of why does NE not just take the JALMONT vig?
If your role is permanent backup of one role forever, you probably want to use it early so taking the D1 vote when it would be a good role for mafia to have makes sense. Nobody else had claimed at that point so presumably maf had no idea what roles they could get.
 
Yeah that’s a very solid point. I do think it’s better for AG but I’m starting to agree that NE is significantly less likely

Whats your reasoning for NE being less likely than marlyne, or is it just that bit + the backup + the pushes by JALMONT/bluedoom seeming better in retrospective?
 
I think for NE to exist as a protective role backup, there needs to be something real for them to backup. So if marlyne is mafia I don’t think NE exists to backup roles that just sit there doing nothing - why even have a backup exist? For other interactions I’d need to reread but life is busy rip.
 
sat on it overnight and honestly, no, I don’t believe that simultaneously hydro
1) mega evolved at the start of the game
2) has only the os deathproof when the op always separates basic and mega abilities

I don’t believe the masons because thatd mean on of ck/marlyne is scum. I’ll read at the time of their claim wrt ck’s reasoning, but I do think it’s easier for scum to coordinate stuff like that than , say, qhing someone today

ftr I think the ‘vote analysis’ on wis being scum based off the vote activity around pulsar who was playing, let’s say questionably, isn’t really a good reason to vote them imo

the problem with a lot of this is if hydro is scum and 2/3 of charlie,ck,wis are town, that means sunny is town and idt scum kills neon over sunny?

oops i forgot wis isnt just os bpv but also ex-bg that does allow for sunny town to not deal with wifom

reminder to charlie that ties are randed and dont result in no vote, hence my comment about winning 50/50s

I just mentally counted and realized theres 9 people alive not 8, ive been excluding myself from the count like an idiot

ag is almost definitely the person who vanillized wis i think

idk why sunny revealed the mason names because now if theyre town i think theyre just dead, since i dont think gallade ever would be the omniguard

tldr
so i think wis is town, otherwise neon would NOT have died
hydro’s role claim is yucky and probably scum
I don’t like the masons, but also, there’s almost certainly some fuckery with protection

towns (minus me) that I think are possible in order of how likely i think theyd be

wis/ck/charlie/sunny
wis/ck/masons
wis/sunny/masons
wis/charlie/masons
 
sat on it overnight and honestly, no, I don’t believe that simultaneously hydro
1) mega evolved at the start of the game
2) has only the os deathproof when the op always separates basic and mega abilities

I don’t believe the masons because thatd mean on of ck/marlyne is scum. I’ll read at the time of their claim wrt ck’s reasoning, but I do think it’s easier for scum to coordinate stuff like that than , say, qhing someone today

ftr I think the ‘vote analysis’ on wis being scum based off the vote activity around pulsar who was playing, let’s say questionably, isn’t really a good reason to vote them imo

the problem with a lot of this is if hydro is scum and 2/3 of charlie,ck,wis are town, that means sunny is town and idt scum kills neon over sunny?

oops i forgot wis isnt just os bpv but also ex-bg that does allow for sunny town to not deal with wifom

reminder to charlie that ties are randed and dont result in no vote, hence my comment about winning 50/50s

I just mentally counted and realized theres 9 people alive not 8, ive been excluding myself from the count like an idiot

ag is almost definitely the person who vanillized wis i think

idk why sunny revealed the mason names because now if theyre town i think theyre just dead, since i dont think gallade ever would be the omniguard

tldr
so i think wis is town, otherwise neon would NOT have died
hydro’s role claim is yucky and probably scum
I don’t like the masons, but also, there’s almost certainly some fuckery with protection

towns (minus me) that I think are possible in order of how likely i think theyd be

wis/ck/charlie/sunny
wis/ck/masons
wis/sunny/masons
wis/charlie/masons
Neon dead -> wisp town?
 
I think Neon could've been killed to prevent his role from going off as it looks like mafia doesn't have a roleblock based on nobody claiming blocked for days but it does make a protective role dodge more likely.

It could be town!masons w/ the omni and scum!marlyne but the three are never s/s I think.
 
FUCK
smogon ate my post
thatll teach me to not wallpost on mobile again

the tldr so far is that vizh’s p15 wallpost towns mekkah for p4#99 which implies masonry

ill keep working on this but do a post for each instead of walls overall because mobile
 
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