The actual calc for Thunderbolt on Primeape should be 10 + 3 + 1,5 = 14,5
Also, Dragon-Pulse needs to hit, so it does 9 + 3 + 4,5 = 13,5
With these in mind, Primeape is left with 2 HP
Edit: Actualy, due to the Sp.Def loss from Close-Combat, Primeape is knocked out.
''Ok, lets try to finish this!''
Phanpy -
Body-Slam -> Body-Slam -> Earthquake
If Monohm uses Surf, use Protect that action and push-back, but not twice in a row.
Ponyta -
Bounce -> Morning Sun -> Bounce
If Monohm uses Surf AND he isnt already asleep, use Hypnosis instead, but dont push-back.