Format Discussion Metronome Battles

Retest or suspect..?

  • Retest Fur Coat & Fluffy

    Votes: 8 61.5%
  • Suspect Ice Scales

    Votes: 5 38.5%

  • Total voters
    13
  • Poll closed .

Most of these were with weakness policy fur coat diancie + weakness policy fluffy/storm drain dragonite. Also experimented with fur coat toxapex and fur coat zeraora; diancie just happened to be what I had the most success with. Overall, I think these are definitely a very fun set of abilities! I definitely don't think either one of them needs to be banned; both of them can save you in a fair amount of scenarios, and definitely makes weakness policy a little less risky, but there's also so, so much these abilities won't do a singular thing to save you against.
 
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Decided to test Fluffy after getting reqs. In order to work around Fluffy granting a Fire weakness (at least of sorts), I decided to sub it into my most successful Fur Coat team with Fire resists on it (it even outdid the teams I took from this thread and reverse-engineered from replays of anyone on this thread who claimed a much better suspect ladder record than me, including ones with no Fire resists): double Mega Ampharos with Weakness Policy (groan!).

Ampharos-Mega @ Weakness Policy
Ability: Fluffy
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD
Relaxed Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Metronome

Ampharos-Mega @ Weakness Policy
Ability: Fluffy
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD
Relaxed Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Metronome

This team ended up being both capable of dropping me significantly out of the 1500s and putting me right back in the 1500s. The Fire weakness and inability to lower damage from some physical moves Mega Ampharos is weak to both bit all test run (*cough Earthquake, Land's Wrath, Icicle Spear, cough*) compared to running Fur Coat instead, but Fluffy looks like it does too admirable a job still, especially since this suspect ladder is the first time I've reached 1500 or higher on the Metronome Battles ladder.

At least Weakness Policy often outdid Choice Specs on even the pre-suspect ladder for me on Mega Ampharos.

If you want some double luxuriantly hairy Mega Ampharos replays, here they are - see if you can tell which replays are for Fluffy and which are for Fur Coat:
As a result, I'm probably voting for the same option for both Fur Coat and Fluffy, and I'm increasingly thinking ban.
 
Screen Shot 2022-02-18 at 11.11.53 AM.png

Big Bonk, big anti-bonk. no special, only bonks.

Hercules (Heracross-Mega) @ Choice Band
Ability: Intrepid Sword
Shiny: Yes
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD
Brave Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Metronome

Jerkules (Type: Null) @ Eviolite
Ability: Fur Coat
Shiny: Yes
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD
Relaxed Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Metronome
 
mnome.png

I honestly don't really know what's going on, so I guess I'll just vote unban on whatever we're unbanning. Maybe next time you should set more difficult requirements so casuals like me can't get them.
 
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I got a minor announcement for y'all. I hit 1600 Elo.
1600Elo.png

Since I hit my goal I see no reason to hold my cards close to my chest anymore so here is the team

Tyranitar @ Weakness Policy
Ability: Fur Coat
Shiny: Yes
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD
Sassy Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Metronome

Guzzlord @ Weakness Policy
Ability: Fur Coat
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD
Sassy Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Metronome

Since getting REQs I have been running lots of simulated battles with GooberGamer, partly to find new tech and partly to see what a metagame with Fur Coat would be like.

One surprising thing the sims have helped me with is that many popular mons are not actually that good. The data has little faith in Mega Banette or Gallade for example, much preferring the bulkier and stronger Heracross. Its a similar story on the special side, with only Mega Camerupt and Ampharos doing super well against the other archetypes, with Mega Gengar and Gardevoir significantly less reliable (even for Pixilate teams, it prefers Physical Mega Altaria). Now that Gengar is mentioned, ghosts in general are not as good as I (and I suspect most people) thought. It seems that their generally frail stats do not make up for the two immunities which make up about 20% of attacking moves. The only Ghosts I have found that the simulator likes are Dragapult, Silvally and of course Eviolite Dusclops. Even Necturna is considered worse on Flower Veil than double Venusaur.

When it comes to matchups, good Fur Coat mons win almost all of them 60/40 or even better. If you somehow knew an opponent was bringing fur your best choices in response are Fur Coat (basically counter zacian with zacian), Ampharos (which is slightly favoured to lose vs the best sets) or Blissey (which only works vs the offensive fur coaters such as Heracross or Slowbro). Stall gets out stalled and out damaged by these teams, the simulated battles absolutely hate the MU. Flower Veil also does abysmally, I assume for similar reasons but Veil is rare on the suspect ladder for direct observation. Physical HO is a little better, but still loses most of the time, only Heracross has the power to punch through with any consistency.

So, why TTar and Guzz specifically? Glad you asked.

Before I joined forces with him, GooberGamer had already discovered the double Guzzlord team, and he got #1-3 on the ladder shortly after. Guzzlords typing has many weaknesses, yes, but also many resistances. The 4x weakness to Fairy is not as bad as it appears as that is by far the rarest attacking type metronome can call, and the others are great fodder for a Weakness Policy activation. This combo, along with decent 223/53/53 bulk makes it a great Fur Coat abuser. Anyone who has ever calced Mega Medicham also knows that 2x a stat is MUCH more than 2x a base stat so realistically it turns Guzzlord into a 223/120+/53 bulk mon. One other advantage to that sky high HP is that blissey gains little over you in that department.

+1 252+ Atk Choice Band Heracross Megahorn vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Fur Coat Guzzlord: 542-638 (83.3 - 98.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+1 252+ Atk Choice Band Heracross Stone Edge vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Fur Coat Guzzlord: 151-178 (23.2 - 27.3%) -- 66.3% chance to 4HKO
+1 252+ Atk Choice Band Heracross Sacred Fire vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Fur Coat Guzzlord: 75-89 (11.5 - 13.6%) -- possible 8HKO

252+ SpA Plus Ampharos-Mega Bug Buzz vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Guzzlord: 406-478 (62.4 - 73.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ SpA Plus Ampharos-Mega Power Gem vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Guzzlord: 180-212 (27.6 - 32.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
252+ SpA Plus Ampharos-Mega Flamethrower vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Guzzlord: 101-119 (15.5 - 18.3%) -- possible 6HKO

Tyranitar has many of the same properties in that it has many resistances and many weaknesses, but it has much better offences and better bulk than a mythical pokemon in 100/110/100. This hurts against blissey, but isn't as bad when you get pain split or similar. The offences over Guzzlord are huge however, as HO teams with good luck can run through the slightly passive double Guzzlord more easily. The amount of games Tyranitar has lived multiple strong SE attacks and lived to win me the game has led to Tyranitar becoming my temporary mascot pending the potential Fur Coat ban (pls do btw, its overcentralising af and there is no reliable counterteam). It cant hurt to be a normal resist too, I suppose.

+1 252+ Atk Choice Band Heracross Megahorn vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Fur Coat Tyranitar: 350-414 (86.6 - 102.4%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Choice Band Heracross Stone Edge vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Fur Coat Tyranitar: 97-115 (24 - 28.4%) -- 97% chance to 4HKO
+1 252+ Atk Choice Band Heracross Sacred Fire vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Fur Coat Tyranitar: 48-57 (11.8 - 14.1%) -- possible 8HKO

252+ SpA Plus Ampharos-Mega Bug Buzz vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Tyranitar: 278-328 (68.8 - 81.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ SpA Plus Ampharos-Mega Power Gem vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Tyranitar: 124-146 (30.6 - 36.1%) -- 50.8% chance to 3HKO
252+ SpA Plus Ampharos-Mega Flamethrower vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Tyranitar: 69-82 (17 - 20.2%) -- possible 5HKO

Out of all the mons and sets I have simmed, (and thats a lot now) double Guzzlord and Tyranitar + Guzzlord are the only ones that average more than 60% winrate vs a set of teams I set up to represent the pre-suspect meta. The only reasonable team that I have found that beats them is Imposter Blissey and a meta of Fur Coat and Blissey only would get stale very fast in my opinion.

However, I would consider Fluffy to be not broken The sim doesn't believe in it and it comes with weaknesses, so I consider it to be Dauntless Shield tier. Ice Scales is not broken because physical attacks are more common and physical attackers in general are better mons.

There are a few things I would be interested in seeing suspected in the future. Stamina for example. The sim considers this strong but still worse than Dauntless or Fluffy. I suspect this is because immediate boosts are usually better (Band > WP on most mons too), IMO Stamina could be tested. Another, probably more controversial one though...

I think Species Clause would be a good idea. The best Phys HO team is double Heracross, the best special HO team is double Ampharos, the best Flower Veil team is double Venusaur... etc. Even with Fur Coat, double Guzzlord does slightly better than using Tyranitar. In my opinion this is kinda boring and more interesting teambuilding would happen if it was forced to have two different mons. It would also stop people spamming that rubbish double Mew team. The downside to this is that Imposter would take a hit as double Blissey would be Illegal.

PS: Z-Crystals suck, stop using them. its a ~33% chance of nothing and ~67% of an average power boost of 40BP. It's Time To Stop.
 
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Congrats on 1600, Scrubdown Showlord! I'm here to confirm what they've said. Between the two of us we have simulated more than a hundred million metronome battles, several orders of magnitude more than have ever been played. We have also done a lot of mathematical analysis and a LOT of theorycrafting on hundreds of team concepts. Fur Coat is just better than anything else. My trademark team is as follows:

Duke (Guzzlord) @ Weakness Policy
Ability: Fur Coat
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD
Sassy Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Metronome

Earl (Guzzlord) @ Weakness Policy
Ability: Fur Coat
Shiny: Yes
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD
Sassy Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Metronome

This team is good. Really good. It took us a week to even find a team that has a winning matchup against it; your first and second guesses probably don't beat it. It even beats out Scrubdown Showlord's Ttar team in simulations (though I have like a 20% winrate against them on ladder, curse you RNG).
Once you start simulating, you quickly find out a lot things that seem obvious in retrospect but are not universally done even in high ladder. For example, most slow mons should run minimum speed, because speed is not very important in general, but the slower team wins when Perish Song is used.
I plan to write up a lot more of this analysis and make it public, as well as release the code, When It's Done™. But for now, let me say a short piece about Fur Coat:
It's broken. Very broken.
I enjoyed abusing it to get #1 and #2 on the ladder. By the time I got #3 as well, it felt more like bullying, and I decided to stop (and cancel my original plan of filling the entire top 500 with GooberGamer alts :psywoke:). It's just too strong. It's not comparable in the slightest to Ice Scales; physical attacks are far far more important than special attacks, which is why any mon with a half-decent Atk stat can be viable (e.g. Guzzlord), but only the very strongest and bulkiest special attackers are even worth considering. It's also not comparable to Dauntless Shield - it's more than just a 2x boost over a 1.5x boost; it can't be taken away as easily, and means that once you do get defense boosts, they're literally twice as effective.
Fluffy is strictly worse than Fur Coat. I've seen people saying they like to run it for special attacks, which... here, let me give you a complete list of all special attacks that can be drawn by metronome and make contact:
Draining Kiss, Grass Knot, Infestation, Petal Dance.
That's it. And out of those, Infestation's damage doesn't even come from its initial hit.
As for physical attacks, about 81% of them make contact. Which means you're taking the full damage 20% of the time.
In addition, you incur a weakness to fire, which is the best attacking type by far after Normal. Here is some basic analysis:
The most common move types that target enemies are:
#1Normal9016%
#2Grass326%
#3Fighting316%
#4Fire305%
#5Psychic295%

The types with the most powerful attacks (accuracy-adjusted) on average are:
#1Dragon86
#2Fire85
#3Psychic82
#4Steel81
#5Grass80

The total power offered by each type (average power times number of moves):
#1Normal3653
#2Fire2370
#3Water1903
#4Fighting1853
#5Grass1832

As you can see, fire stands head and shoulders above everything else that's not Normal.
This is exactly what you want in an ability - powerful effect, wide but not universal applicability, something that makes the teams that use it feel meaningfully distinct from others, but also clear counters and weaknesses.
Fur Coat, on the other hand, is good on almost anything, is universally applicable, and beats out almost any archetype. Even teams specially made to counter it barely manage to break a 55% winrate.
Ban Fur Coat or my alts will cover the sun.
 
Happy March 1st! With Fluffy officially freed and Fur Coat left behind in February, let's see how the usage stats went down during this suspect test.

There was a record total of 110247 battles this month, even surpassing the initial return of Metronome Battles (88663), and trailing its 2018 debut at 112062. There was a lot of attention from the suspect test in the thread itself, but it's still pretty heartening to see it in numbers. Thanks for showing up and being a part of it. Next month, the format will celebrate its 4th anniversary.

https://www.smogon.com/stats/2022-02/gen8metronomebattle-1630.txt
https://www.smogon.com/stats/2022-02/moveset/gen8metronomebattle-1630.txt

1630 Top 10 + last month positions:
#1: Guzzlord (#18)
#2: Mega Heracross (#1)
#3: Mega Venusaur (#2)
#4: Blissey (#11)
#5: Mega Ampharos (#8)
#6: Ursaluna (NEW)
#7: Necturna (#4)
#8: Mega Sableye (#3)
#9: Hisuian Zoroark (NEW)
#10: Dusclops (#6)

The results are clear: Fur Coat Guzzlord was truly a centralizing force in the metagame while it lasted, dominating the weighted usage even with only 5513 uses compared to the previous champion Heracross at 24558, almost 5 times less. Time will tell if Fluffy will be strong enough to make a similar impact on the meta, and if these shifts will be here to stay. Notable new contenders Ursaluna and Hisuian Zoroark have risen up to the challenge, and Hisuian Zoroark actually comes in #2 for pure raw usage at 22883 uses, so I could see it sticking around for a while among the likes of Mew and Gengar. As for other new Legends mons, Enamorus-Therian sits comfortably at #12, Basculegion takes #21 and #37 (Male/Female), Arcanine is at #35, Typhlosion is at #42, and Alolan Decidueye rounds it off at #49 with half the uses of its Hisuian form. Ampharos saw slightly more success while Blissey managed to surpass the 10k usage mark. Despite the rising power of defensive tanks, Type: Null fell down to #20 despite being a usual top 10 contender, though maybe it was outclassed by the strength of bulky statboosters like Tyranitar (#13) in this interesting time as shown by previous analysis posts.

Mega Venusaur, Necturna, and Dusclops boast the highest viability ceilings (peak GXE someone used those mons with) at 83. Following up are Blissey, Ursaluna, Enamorus-Therian, and Mega Banette at 82. Finally, we end off with Hisuian Zoroark, Mega Camerupt, Mega Slowbro, Type: Null, Pokestar UFO, Aurumoth, and Hisuian Braviary at 80, an odd list of mons that would never coexist anywhere else. Heracross and Guzzlord barely didn't make it at 79, despite their proven ladder and usage feats, but it's still a respectable performance.

In other news, Pyroak got a nerf (in this Metronome context), going from 95 SpA to 75 SpA. Also, Pokemon Scarlet and Violet will be coming late 2022 to add Gen 9 mons/items/abilities to Metronome Battles, and possibly a new gimmick as well. Maybe Sprigatito will take a stand and be viable for Flower Veil?
 

Ivy

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Why is the stat limit set to 625 and not some other purely arbitrary number like 630? I want to be able to use mega Blaziken in this format.
Spare yourself from that fail; Mega Blaziken would be terrible. and yes, that's the random number we picked 2 years ago, essentially only because people were getting bored of 600. The main difference is mega venusaur. If we keep raising the ceiling it'll eventually hit 680 at which point it becomes pure hackmons uber city, and nobody wants that lol
 
raising the BST limit to 669, AKA up to where legendaries live, would only give us mega starters (I count Ash Gren here) and mega Gyarados. oh yeah and base Kyurem.

some of the starters would be nice to have, maybe bulky af Kyurem can do something but not much would change. I would be fine with a bump to 650/660. wouldnt mind seeing megazard x and sipper mega swampert on ladder.
 

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