Team Preview
For our first game of the week we have two standardish Sticky Webs teams so this isn't going to be a long one. I don't feel comfortable discussing Emoxu9's team with any specifics due to having access to the paste. I havn't asked them for permission to discuss it in depth and don't intend to. I don't know if Emoxu9 has made changes in the meantime, but if they did it would likely just be tailoring the Smeargle set to this matchup. It is a decent, if somewhat unusal team. This is also the first time I've seen Lunala on Webs in a very long time and time will tell if others are willing to try it. If you replace Lunala with Ultra Necrozma it is a bog standard Webs team. To quote Entro though: Chi-Yu!
Shield's Sticky Web team is slightly more unusual, but a little less standard. It is definitely a more experimental team as it incorporates the trending Eternatus on Webs to absorb potential Toxic Spikes, but also Primal Groudon which has been a rarity in recent times. I like both teams and that is nice to start the week off with for a change.
Matchup [idk]
I'm not really sure who has the matchup advantage here. It is all going to depend on those first couple of turns. In a game without hazards I think Emoxu9 is slightly favoured as Lunala's Shadow Shield will likely play a huge role while Chi Yu is also quite scary. Emoxu9 can bring it in after Eternatus KOs something and roll the dice as +1 Dynamax Cannon is a 43.8% chance to ohko and Chi-Yu has a 97.1% chance to OHKO back with Black Hole Eclipse. That seems like the safest path to a win for Emoxu9 given that the rest of team shouldn't give them much trouble outside of maybe some Arceus tera tomfoolery. Either way, in a hazardless game Emoxu9 shouldn't have much difficulty setting things up for Arceus or Zacian-C to clean/sweep.
However, if hazards are up on both sides I think things shift and favour ShieldPoke quite a bit. I'm assuming this is a Double Dance Primal Groudon which is immensely threaten, especially if it has Heat Crash. Primal Kyogre is the wild card here as some people like pumping a lot of bulk into it so it can live a +1 Zacian-C Wild Charge. If Shield has a bulky Primal Kyogre, it is going to be a real pain. Though I get a feeling it is just max/max as my gut instinct is that Adem hates that spread. The other wild card is Yveltal, which does sometimes run Heat Wave and Tera Flying / Fire on Webs. Either of those would be pretty big.
Anything can happen in a webs mirror, especially when both players are using Smeargle. Well except a long game.
Game
To no ones surprise, both players lead with Smeargle. Shield wins a speed tie so their Smeargle's Webs are removed by Mortal Spin on Turn 1. Shield then opts for Nuzzle to break the Focus Sash and cripple any potential switchins. Emoxu9 decides to make a prediction and doubles to Zacian-C as Shield sets Sticky Web. Zacian-C tera grounds on the Nuzzle...and that ends up being the ballgame. Im not sure why, but Shield elects to Tera Ghost on Turn 8 as Arceus SDs and fails to get the 31.8% roll to OHKO Zacian-C. I'm really not sure why the tera was exhausted there as it doesn't affect anything even if Zacian-C was OHKOed. Zacian-C is left at 3% and Yveltal comes in and either doesn't have or doesn't click Sucker Punch. I'm assuming the latter because I don't see why you would click anything else at this point. Zacian-C OHKOes Pdon and Eternatus as ShieldPoke forfeits instead of sacking Primal Kyogre.
Additional Thoughts
Oftentimes in a HO mirror a single turn makes all the difference and that is what happened here. Sometimes thems the breaks. A HO mirror with no Ultra Necrozma is interesting. There isn't much to add, Zacian-C did what Zacian-C is supposed to do. Emoxu9 took a measured gamble and it paid off. Sure webs were likely that turn, but Nuzzle is always possible.
View attachment 671464
I was messing around on the ladder a bit and testing some teams. Ended up facing a webs team at some point where I led DD Zygarde, used substitute, and 6-0d. Entro liked the team so I double checked to make sure we were not going to bring it before sending it over. We discussed a few changes as this team had Tera Fairy Zygarde and I mentioned that Ground worked way better on this team and to change that. Unfortunately Entro accidently changed it to Tera Grass.
Team Preview
A couple more changes were made, but there isn't any point in revealing the original team until after NDPL. Entros team is very standard except for the accidental Tera Grass Zygarde. If you want to recreate it just use sample sets and you'll have everything except for the Arceus-Fairy EVs. I'm not familiar with Mashing's team, though it was not what I expected at preview.
I don't recall exactly what I expected at preview, but it wasn't what ended up at preview. While this team is a balance, you could easily make half a dozen teams with these 6 and have it be either very fat or more offensive. The only thing I'm sure of at preview is that Primal Groudon is some sort of defensive set and Yveltal is either Choice Scarf or has Sucker Punch. I don't know Mashing at all and therefore don't know their preferences beyond what they've loaded in NDPL so far which is HO. Though I'm not a big fan of this particular team, I do appreciate how hard it makes it to decipher at preview. Arceus-Fairy could easily be Rocks or CM, Eternatus could easily be wallbreaker or fast Toxic Spikes, ect.
Matchup [idk]
The possibilities of Mashing's sets make it quite difficult to to say who is favoured at matchup. With the benefit of hindsight Entro is pretty obviously favoured given the Zygarde set revealed. With everything known I do think Entro is slightly favoured, but running into hazard stack with Choice Scarf Yveltal as a Defogger is an uphill battle. The biggest threat for Entro is simply a lack of knowledge. Whether Ho-Oh or Yveltal is the fogger changes the gameplan immensely. However, regardless of the sets, Rayquaza is looking quite good this game as Zygarde should be containable unless it is a random trapper set. It is also the only mon Entro is likely tera given that Zygarde is Tera Grass.
On Mashing's side the largest threat is likely the Eternatus. If positioned well wallbreaker Eternatus can end the game quite quickly with some chip on Primal Kyogre while, Fast Toxic Spikes sets are good as well. Fortunately for Entro, this is very unlikely to be Choice Specs Eternatus which would have gone crazy. Tera Flying LO Yveltal would also be a good breaker here. Ultimately it will come down to the mons and how Entro / Mashing play as this looks very winnable for either at peview.
Game
Mashing leads with Arceus-Fairy and takes a likely unexpected Toxic from Choice Scarf Yveltal as it sets Stealth Rock. Toxic on Arceus-Fairy is bad, but not the end of the world since this is Choice Scarf instead of LO Yveltal so Eternatus can handle it needed. Stealth Rock on Entro's side isn't great, but managable. Entro switches out to Primal Groudon which eats a Judgment and Entro sets up his own rocks as Zygarde switches in. Primal Kyogre switches in an eats a Glare, revealing the Zygarde is likely defensive. This is somewhat good news for Entro as it means that Primal Kyogre can quite likely win in the long run if it can find a turn to Rest at some point. Unfortunately for Entro, Primal Kyogre paras as Pdon switches in and an Ice Beam would have confirmed if it was defensive + get some much needed chip. This doesn't matter as it Spikes up the next turn as Zygarde comes in and reveals itself to be defensive.
Entro opts to sub on Zygarde as Arceus-Fairy come in. Mashing opts to sacrifice most of Arceus-Fairy's HP to prevent Zygarde from boosting. This definitely is the right play as Zygarde getting a DD would be incredibly difficult to play around. Mashing's Arceus-Fairy recovers as Entro switches his own in and saves Zygarde for later. Mashing then brings in Ho-Oh in which phases Yveltal switching in to try and remove hazards and brings in Rayquaza and eats a Dragon Ascent to phase it which brings in Yveltal which fogs as Eternatus comes in and reveals itself to be boots and lays a Toxic Spike on the forced switch to Primal Groudon. Zygarde then comes in to absorb a Rock Tomb as Entro goes to Primal Kyogre and the damage reveals that this Zygarde is definitely defensive.
Unfortunately for Entro, Primal Kyogre paras for a second time and Primal Groudon comes in for free and heavily chips Rayquaza as it reveals Dragon Tail. This brings in Entro's Primal Groudon which is put on a timer. Both players double to their Yveltal and Entro's gets a fog off and is left at 4%. Mashing decides to take the forced damage as Arceus-Fairy comes in and fairly easily eats an Oblivion Wing. After a few more turns Entro sacrifices some more health on Primal Groudon to set up Rocks again and sacrifices it on Turn 29 to give Zygarde free entry.
Entro's Zygarde then repeatedly subs and finds itself transformed with a sub and boost as Mashing reveals Haze. This set exists, but it was minorly popular on ladder before fizzling out. I am unabashedly a hater of this set. A couple of months ago passive do nothing fat balances were a lot more popular and this set saw use on some of them, but they often have at least one with a lot of immediate offensive presence from something like an Kingambit or wallbreaker Eternatus. Trapper Zyg would be cool on this type of structure as well.
Anyways after some time on Turn 47 Yveltal is sent in to break Zygarde's Sub and Entro gets a potentially game winning crit to make up for the accidental Tera Grass on Zygarde and we are back to the Sub v Haze v DD v D Tail shenanigans. Entro forces Mashing's Zygarde to Rest and things get ugly as Entro gets every Thousand Arrows v Dragon Tail turn right and that is the ballgame.
Additional Thoughts
I'm fairly sure that crit on Yveltal mattered, but if Entro or Mashing want to confirm that this is the case they can. Either way, if Zygarde had been Tera Ground it would not have mattered. Although I'm not a fan of Mashing's Zygarde set I do like Dragon Tail Primal Groudon a lot. It helps a lot v Goth and probably better on a Hstack like this that doesn't care much about Arceus-Fairy. Even ignoring the Zygarde set, this is a really rough matchup for Mashing due to bringing fat and seeing CB Rayquaza and defensive Kyogre on the other side of the field and waiting in the back. Haze may have a billion PP, but it can't stall out Zygarde and Primal Kyogre. If Mashing made Zygarde DD I think this would be one of my favourite teams brought so far.
Team Preview
Classic BO v fatish balance team. Skimmy is rocking up with the triple ground and fortunately has not run into an offensive Primal Kyogre. Rocks could be on the Arceus-Ground, but it is a lot more likely that this is a defensive pdon. I'm not sure what the Zygarde set is as both DD and Coil fit here. Ditto with the Arceus-Ground. I don't think it is rocks, but Tera Water Taunt Toxic looks like it'd alright with an offensive Zygarde since Pogre is scary. What makes it hard to tell is this team screams I do not care if I load into stall, if I do ggs. Ho-Oh again could be offensive or defensive depending on what direction Skimmy wants to take the team. Zacian-C looks like it should be Play Rough because of how much trouble LO Yveltal gives this team. Lastly Marshadow is probably CB.
Skyview's Yveltal is most likely Choice Scarf. It is a good fit here, but I think on this sort of team you probably want Eternatus to absorb Toxic Spikes as the rest of the team can probably handle Rocks + Spikes though it could just be LO and Skyview has gone fuck it with hazard removal. Necrozma-DM is likely DD Solg-Z. I want to say Garganacl is Tera Water as Arceus-Fairy is probably tasked with handling Yveltal so Garganacl is more likely to be setup. I want to say Primal Groudon is defensive Spikes, but some sort of Rock Polish 3A or SD + Spikes works as well. There are a lot of options for each member, but given everything else I think it is likely MMY is Focus Blast.
Matchup [65-35 for Skimmy]
This one is hard to tell because both players have lots of mons that could be very different sets. I do think Skimmy is slightly favoured as mons such as offensive Eternatus and Primal Kyogre that appear to scare the daylights out of this team are nowhere to be found. MMY is never really going to have room to setup as it will always be revenged/scared out by Zacian-C / Marshadow after a KO. I hope we drop this to C+ in the next VR slate. It has too many matchups that are bad in a way that is very hard to cover for in the builder. Arceus-Ground could be great, it could be whatever, it really depends on the set. We will have to see what it is, but I think this team would appreciate Fairy/Dark more.
Game
Skimmy leads off with Primal Groudon and Skyview leads off with Arceus-Fairy, suggesting it has Stealth Rock and Skyview wants to get them up early, but they Taunt an incoming Ho-Oh instead which brings in Garganacl. It then Salt Cures and incoming Primal Groudon and switches out to Yveltal which reveals itself to likely be Scarf. Arceus-Ground then reveals itself to be defensive and lands a Wisp on Arceus-Fairy. I'm not a huge fan of this move given that only Wisp target, Necrozma-DM, is not switching in on Arceus-Ground and it would be better to keep that hidden. That Mewtwo didn't switch in there means it is likely Ice Beam as it isn't worth risking Arceus-Fairy taking a Toxic and Mewtwo probably isn't doing shit this game anyways.
Arceus-Fairy reveals itself to be Taunt CM and is scared out by Zacian-C which taps an incoming Primal Groudon for 21% with Behemoth Blade. Things are looking good for Skyview if this is Tera Water Garganacl. Zygarde comes in and the Overheat damage reveals it is likely DD, but shows to be a trapper set (I think this is the second time Skimmy has brought this) as Thousand Waves hits Arceus-Fairy which Recovers off the damage as Zacian-C comes in. Necrozma-DM comes in and grabs a DD as Ho-Oh comes in and unfortunately misses Stone Edge. That would have been huge and now it puts Skyview in an awkward position as Marshadow would have been forced to come in and Tera Ghost to revenge it. That is a shame as it also is burnt by Scared Fire to add insult to its injuries. Ho-Oh switches out on another DD and unfortunately LTBS fails to KO Zygarde...unfortunate does not begin to describe.
Ultra Necrozma is forced out as Zygarde rests, but at least we know that Yveltal should be able to prevent it from getting out of hand. Arceus-Fairy comes in and both players double as Skimmy's Ho-Oh reveals that it is defensive Brave Bird and chips the Primal Groudon and Toxics it as it sets up Stealth Rock. This isn't great given Unecro is free to switch to and Skyview will probably need Primal Groudon's HP later for one of Zacian-C or Marshadow. It Toxic's the Ho-Oh and Garganacl comes in as Ho-Oh Defogs. Rather than Salt Cure Skyview makes an aggresive double to Mewtwo which catches the Arceus-Ground and takes 35% from Judgment while boosting and OHKOs Primal Groudon with Fire Blast.
Unsurprisingly it is scared out by Marshadow which Shadow Sneaks into Yveltal. Skyview then manually switches out so maybe this is Defensive Yveltal? It is hard to imagine not clicking U-turn there if they are Scarf. MMY finds itself in front of Arceus-Ground and tickles it with Psytrike as Skimmy decides to save Arceus-Ground and switches to Ho-Oh. Skyview feels the same way and brings in Garganacl and doubles back to MMY to catch Arceus-Ground and Ice Beams into Ho-Oh. We repeat the sequence again and this time MMY fails to KO Arceus-Ground before going down itself. Ima be honest, I am very surprised it didn't KO. This mon is fraudulent. After some Recover v Ice Beam Skimmy decides now is a good time to get Zacian-C in. If you want to bank on that Yveltal not being Choice Scarf the game can be won by Teraing and SDing right now....but Skyview gets a deserved freeze and knocks out Zacian-C with Fire Blast and then Ultra Necrozma is sacrificed to Marshadow.
Skyview then goes to Yveltal and manually switches out again to MMY which finds itself in front of Arceus-Ground that Tera Waters as Yveltal switches in on Judgment and manually switches out again. FINALLY, on turn 46 Garganacl reveals Tera Water and Salt Cures the Arceus-Ground. Skyview then goes back again to MMY. I do not get why this MMY is being preserved the way that it is. It can't break because it is nowhere near healthy enough. Ho-Oh is going to come in every single time and +2 Psystrike doesn't OHKO. Ice Beam is nice for Zygarde, but Garg + Pdon + Yveltal are fine for that. Then Ice Beam is clicked instead of Nasty Plot so the Ho-Oh that should have died 30 turns ago gets to regen some more HP. Arceus-Fairy, which I forgot existed, comes in and scares out the Arceus-Ground. Marshadow comes in to revenge it and reveals itself to be BU Z after failing to OHKO Primal Groudon
Additional Thoughts
At preview I didn't love either that much, but have come around slightly to Skyviews even if it showed the shortcomings of MMY. They got very lucky that Skimmys team revealed itself to be quite flawed. The mons are fine, but Arceus-Ground really needed Toxic and Marshadow should have been Band or maybe BU LO. Skyview won, but Skimmy played much better. Unecro not OHKOing Ho-Oh sucks, but the freeze removing Zacian-C sort of evened it out. I frankly spent a lot of the game befuddled by a lot of Skyviews plays. I don't get why there was so much emphasis on preserving the MMY or why Garganacl was barely used given that it was Tera Water unless it was double Stealth Rock. At some point you have to accept that the MMY isn't breaking or go for a Nasty Plot or even click Psystrike if you're going to put that much effort into preserving it.
This is what I would have loaded. Arceus-Ground can't have perfect EVs unfortunately, but it should do the job fine.