Announcement np: SV OU Suspect Process, Round 12 - Moth To A Flame

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The replays might be HO because that’s the most common type of team right now, I don’t think that’s survivor bias if it’s a random sample of teams. In fact I made the point earlier than Volcarona is best against HO, and HO is over represented right now in the meta due to other reasons like moon and co.

it’s a small sample so if any problems it’s the size of the sample. But I am asking any that think Volcarona is broken to share some evidence. It’s not too much to ask? Maybe we can do play by play breakdowns.
The samples aren't inadequate because they're not enough or whatever but because if a team is weak to volcarona good players just aren't going to use it, so any samples would fail to account for any scrapped version of those teams that were scrapped because they were weak to volc. Also I really don't get how ho should struggle with volc as it's the best playstyle at not giving it free turns to set up by far, and the fact something as volatile as ho is 80% of the meta is a problem of its own.
 
The samples aren't inadequate because they're not enough or whatever but because if a team is weak to volcarona good players just aren't going to use it, so any samples would fail to account for any scrapped version of those teams that were scrapped because they were weak to volc. Also I really don't get how ho should struggle with volc as it's the best playstyle at not giving it free turns to set up by far, and the fact something as volatile as ho is 80% of the meta is a problem of its own.
the argument is that if Volcarona has the right Tera then it can mow down a team or crack it open.

HO is the most susceptible to that due to every turn being extremely important for an HO team to get right. So if the Tera is a MU advantage, then the HO team folds.

good Pokémon’s will do good in the meta regardless of team building. If team building is containing it.. then it’s not so good is it?

we have examples with mag, eleki, etc that are very obvious and easy to see.

there’s some less obvious ones but still OP historic bans like the last ban on Gliscor… which kinda made sense even tho Gliscor wasn’t as obviously over the top as mag, etc.

Volcarona being banned simply isn’t making sense to me when I look at actual games, including both my own games and others.

it just doesn’t make sense..

I think other types of bias are more relevant, everyone can more easily recall the last time they lost to a Volcarona more easily than other typical sweepers, since once its speed boosted, it “runs away” with games. Unlike kingambit there’s no 50/50s when it runs away. Beating a runaway gambit due to 50/50s feels good, and therefore it feels less annoying than Volcarona.
 

Pais

MALDINI
is a Top Tiering Contributoris a Top Tutor Alumnus
I'll vote NO BAN.

I've been playing and climbing a lot in the 2k Elo range recently, and I don't think Volcarona is remotely close to being broken. We basically have more meta-defining threats that don't rely on Tera like Volcarona does, such as Zamazenta, which can single-handedly dismantle hyper offensive teams that are probably the best playstyle right now. We have Raging Bolt and Roaring Moon, which practically sweep through any defensive/balanced team alone. We have Gholdengo, which makes playing around entry hazards much more stressful. We have Ogerpon-Water, which is essentially more versatile in every team structure and can exploit common metagame trends, and can lure in common checks with moves like Play Rough or Knock Off (not to mention sets like SD/Trailblaze or others that are still very dangerous). Not to mention Kingambit who can virtually win almost every game. Removing Volcarona would also remove a check for Zamazenta, Kingambit, Gholdengo, and I don't think the council will ever take action on these Pokémon, so I prefer to avoid the risk and leave everything as it is. However, I can see the common denominator among all recent suspects: all these Pokémon are great Tera abusers, and that shouldn't be something new.

Anyway, I don't think I'll vote for the ban of any future suspect because to really see improvement, we would have to mass ban a large group of Pokémon, and there's also the risk of reverting to the post-OLT/pre-DLC1 meta, which, at least for me, wasn't enjoyable. Additionally, the metagame is changing almost every day due to the numerous meta-defining tournaments going on, such as the Smogon Tour or the French Ladder Tour, which have significantly increased ladder activity, so we can expect the meta to be very different in a few weeks.

I'd prefer to see how the meta evolves or just a Tera ban. Both of these options are fine personally.

Post Scriptum, but not the most relevant point: Something that does not encourage me to ban Volcarona is that I've read somewhere (maybe on Twitter I'm not sure) that someone in the council wanted to unban Solgaleo or stuff like that? Why a player should ban Volcarona if then you see a remote chance to have unbanned some possible threat from Ubers that maybe Volcarona could have checked?
 
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I've been playing and climbing a lot in the 2k Elo range recently, and I don't think Volcarona is remotely close to being broken. We basically have more meta-defining threats that don't rely on Tera like Volcarona does, such as Zamazenta, which can single-handedly dismantle hyper offensive teams that are probably the best playstyle right now. We have Raging Bolt and Roaring Moon, which practically sweep through any defensive/balanced team alone. We have Gholdengo, which makes playing around entry hazards much more stressful. We have Ogerpon-Water, which is essentially more versatile in every team structure and can exploit common metagame trends, and can lure in common checks with moves like Play Rough or Knock Off (not to mention sets like SD/Trailblaze or others that are still very dangerous).
Just because there are also other potentially broken Pokemon that exist doesn't mean that Volcarona isn't broken - it's a highly effective setup sweeper that can pick and choose what it wants to check with 3-4 different teras and sets that can make it hard to account for.

Anyway, I don't think I'll vote for the ban of any future suspect because to really see improvement, we would have to mass ban a large group of Pokémon
This doesn't have to be a bad thing but also if one mon is a problem, why should we choose to keep it because LOTS of mons are also a problem.

Additionally, the metagame is changing almost every day due to the numerous meta-defining tournaments going on, such as the Smogon Tour or the French Ladder Tour, which have significantly increased ladder activity, so we can expect the meta to be very different in a few weeks.
Sure but we can't really assume what the meta will be like in a few weeks, the suspect is covering this current meta not next month's.

Post Scriptum, but not the most relevant point: Something that does not encourage me to ban Volcarona is that I've read somewhere (maybe on Twitter I'm not sure) that someone in the council wanted to unban Solgaleo or stuff like that? Why a player should ban Volcarona if then you see a remote chance to have unbanned some possible threat from Ubers that maybe Volcarona could have checked?
This was clarified to not actually be happening by Finch. And also doesn't really make sense, because one mon can MAYBE balance a potential Uber drop means it isn't broken?
 

Pais

MALDINI
is a Top Tiering Contributoris a Top Tutor Alumnus
Surely Volcarona is a meta defining mon but my point was just that there are more centralizing mons

As you've said Volcarona might be dangerous because it can pick 3-4 different teras and win the game and guess what: it's exactly what I've said. This is why I prefer a tera ban
 
I am leaning towards DNB, although I do not think I can give a definite opinion. I’ll just list volc’s interactions with various archetypes, how those archetypes combat it and my opinions on them. I’ll explain why I am leaning towards DNB la

Volcarona Answers. Blue=Check, Red=Counter

Clodsire :sv/clodsire:

Maybe calling this a counter might be a bit far, since it can get pressured by Tera ground blasts, but it forces a Tera, and otherwise walls it, especially if it has Amnesia and can annoy it if carrying the occasional Haze. Clodsire is a great Pokémon, but it only fits on bulkier balance teams and stall teams. On stall, it is commonly paired with Blissey, the duo can completely wall Volcarona. On balance, depending on the team, it might be the only answer to Volcarona, or there are several other backup answers like Ting-Lu and Garganacl.

Blissey :sv/blissey:

Blissey can only fit on stall teams, but it is a very solid counter. It can boost its special defense with calm minds and pressure it with seismic toss. It can be annoyed by bulky variants with morning sun, which can pressure it with burn + crit fishing, but it is extremely annoying to Volcarona nonetheless. Blissey is used on nearly every stall team, and Blissey + Clodsire is a very solid core used on stall, and can shut down Volcarona. Stall does not struggle with Volcarona, so other archetypes should struggle with it to warrant a suspect.

Ting-Lu :sv/ting-lu:

A good check that fits on a variety of teams. It switches in to Volcarona as it quiver dances, eat a bug buzz and whirlwind it out. It cannot do it repeatedly, but it fills many other roles on a team so you don’t lose much by being forced into using it, and this measure is often good enough. It is also easy to pair with other Volcarona answers, since many times it may be inadequate. Fits on every archetype excluding HO, and acts as a good stopgap to Volcarona.

Garganacl :sv/garganacl:

An shaky check against only the variants lacking morning sun, but it can force out weakened Volcarona, tanking a hit and finishing it off with salt cure, and then recover stalling it. Can fit on balance and bulky offenses.

Priority Users :sv/dragonite: :sv/kingambit: :sv/samurott-hisui:

I’ll group them together. They all fit on offensive playstyles, and easy to fit on those playstyles and even used many times in conjunction with one another. Dragonite is the most secure check of those, as it has multiscale, and the fact that Volcarona rarely runs a tera that resists Extreme Speed. Even if it does, Dragonite can tank the second hit and Earthquake it, since if it’s resisting normal it is always Tera Steel. Kingambit has to play an uncomfortable mindgame with sucker punch, but it does the job as a backup, often OHKOing it with tera dark and supreme overlord boosts. Hamurott either has to play an uncomfortable mind game like Kingmabit, or risk losing to Tera dragon Volcarona, but it works, and can be easily used with defensive answers to Volcarona. Raging bolt is extremely unreliable, because of the mind games, Volcarona is often Tera ground and has SpD boosts from quiver dance, but MAYBE it can work in an emergency.

Iron Valiant :sv/iron-valiant:

Iron Valiant with a physical booster energy set is a thorn in Volcarona's side. It can revenge kill it, and can come in on quiver dance/morning sun and annoy it with Encore. Fits on offensive playstyles and is quite common, and often used alongside a priority user (see above)

Skeledirge :sv/skeledirge:

Skeledirge is the easiest counter to fit. It can switch into Volcarona. If it Tera grounds, it Tera’s back and slacks off, then it can switch into it again and again. It forces it out by spamming torch song at it. Skeledirge can fit on balance, bulky offense and certain stall teams. Pairs very well with garganacl and ting-lu.

There’s also other soft checks, like :Dondozo: and :roaring-moon:

Volcarona vs Archetypes

:Dondozo: STALL :blissey:
Stall teams always carry blissey and often carry Clodsire too, and it’s not uncommon to see other answers on top of those. Volcarona will never be used on these matchups.

:Ting-Lu: BALANCE (bulky hazardstack) :Weavile:

Balance teams have a lot of variety, but they mainly carry Ting-Lu and/or Clodsire along with several secondary checks like Garganacl. Volcarona can find some opportunities, but the Pokémon that give it opportunities like Clefable often carry Knock Off, which cripples it. However, this is often worked around with hazard removal alongside Volcarona, or offensive pressure to prevent and punish hazards. It can sweep when it’s checks are overwhelmed.

:Landorus-Therian: BULKY OFFENSE :Great-Tusk:

Bulky offense is similar to balance, but it gives Volcarona less opportunities as it uses passive mons that it can switch to less. It will have to make use for pivoting, or coming in after a sacrifice.

:roaring-moon: HYPER OFFENSE :kingambit:

Hyper offense mainly prevents it from switching in, if it manages to switch in it will sacrifice a mon to check it. Hyper offense usually uses iron valiant, in conjunction with priority users to check it, but it prefers to limit its opportunities. Volcarona with smart play can sweep it, but that can happen with any other setup sweeper.

Why Volcarona should not be banned

While Volcarona has few counters, it does not need to be banned in my opinion. This is because it has several answers that can fit on a variety of teams, and these answers are easily and often used in conjunction with one another. However, I do understand it’s ban reasons, for example Flame Body RNG, which can be annoying if you are using something like Dragonite to check it, but I often find it sufficiently checked and prepared for, and as other posters have said, it relies on Tera, as the list of answers expands if it cannot Tera.
 
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Surely Volcarona is a meta defining mon but my point was just that there are more centralizing mons

As you've said Volcarona might be dangerous because it can pick 3-4 different teras and win the game and guess what: it's exactly what I've said. This is why I prefer a tera ban
Sure, but a Tera ban is off the table and you've still said it's dangerous as of right now but would still rather keep it unbanned?


Volcarona Answers. Blue=Check, Red=Counter

Clodsire :clodsire:

Maybe calling this a counter might be a bit far, since it can get pressured by Tera ground blasts, but it forces a Tera, and otherwise walls it, especially if it has Amnesia and can annoy it if carrying the occasional Haze. Clodsire is a great Pokémon, but it only fits on bulkier balance teams and stall teams. On stall, it is commonly paired with Blissey, the duo can completely wall Volcarona. On balance, depending on the team, it might be the only answer to Volcarona, or there are several other backup answers like Ting-Lu and Garganacl.
This is by definition not a counter because it cannot switch in and win 1v1 every time.
 

Pais

MALDINI
is a Top Tiering Contributoris a Top Tutor Alumnus
Sure, but a Tera ban is off the table and you've still said it's dangerous as of right now but would still rather keep it unbanned?
Yes, since Tera Ban is off the table I prefer to keep all threats. As I've said in that scenario Volcarona can still provide some utility and with Tera around you can't pretend to have a balanced metagame in the way we intended balanced in past gens.
 

FFK

Foufakirby-san ~~ FFK
is a Tiering Contributor
Imagine playing Rock Slide Kyurem (which is becoming a real set)

On a more serious note, when I find the time, I plan to post my thoughts about Volcarona but I'll be voting BAN. I agree wholeheartedly with Finch's points. The argument "broken check broken" is flawed and shouldn't be the basis for keeping Volcarona in the tier.

If we ended up banning Tera, we would, of course, revisit a multitude of bans. However, as of now, it's off the table, as stated above.
 

AK

formerly akalli
is a Top Tiering Contributor
Short post just to say I intend to vote Ban on Volcarona, I still don't believe that picking your counterplay and being able to bypass every single counter is a healthy component to a metagame, also still believe that threat saturation is at an all time high and getting rid of a cheap set up sweeper can only be a good first step to solving that problem.

Post Scriptum, but not the most relevant point: Something that does not encourage me to ban Volcarona is that I've read somewhere (maybe on Twitter I'm not sure) that someone in the council wanted to unban Solgaleo or stuff like that? Why a player should ban Volcarona if then you see a remote chance to have unbanned some possible threat from Ubers that maybe Volcarona could have checked?
No issue at all with the rest of your post even if I don't agree with it, but just wanted to touch on that part real quick. We're very far from any Ubers being freed into the tier so this should not be a relevant concern at this point. To my understanding there's going to be a PR Thread after wcop to discuss about it, it's very far away and it's honestly very unlikely to get the support needed as these unbans make no sense at all but that's a topic for another day.
 
Hi, it's my first time voting (I already have an account with enough GXE) and I don't really know how to proceed :(

Do I say here "Ban" or "Do not ban" and then post my account on the other thread? Or...Where do I vote?

By the way, I will vote BAN because I think that right now there are 5-6 mons that are broken in the tier and each one checks the other. And in my opinion we should slowly get rid of all of them.

Volc is one of those mons

With the way tera is right now in the tier, Volcarona has too many opportunities to set up and go for the win instantly. It's true that there's some counterplay (for example once it teras it loses a kinda good defensive typing so it becomes weaker to some mons depending on the tera. Dragon to Weavile, Ground to Rilla and every non-fire/water to Scizor as to give some examples)

But even then the tier has too many threats right now to also has Volc. You have to either have to use Volc, or dedicate one or even one and a half team members to check. And you already need between two or three mons to check Gambit. Well...Or use Gambit. So imo Volc is contributing to suffocate the tier.

Most of Volc checks can also be overwhelmed if you pair it with another special attacker; Gholdengo, Raging Bolt, Enamorus...

I know that Volc is a positive pressence in some cases, but I found it most of the time a negative one
 
Hi, it's my first time voting (I already have an account with enough GXE) and I don't really know how to proceed :(

Do I say here "Ban" or "Do not ban" and then post my account on the other thread? Or...Where do I vote?
You post a screenshot of your account with the requirements in this thread. Then when the voting opens, you'll get mentioned in the new thread for voting. Make sure that it's a new account with the GXE requirements.
 
This reminds me of Zygarde in generation 7. Zygarde had "counters" for everything he set out to do, he couldn't execute everything at the same time, but he always adapted no matter what innovation came to stop him.
And well, he was banned and the metagame became a better place.

And Volcarona well, totally dependent on HDB, but let's be honest, even things that aren't weak 4x Stealth Rock are dependent on it. And most variants rely on Terastal mechanics, yes, Terastal and not just Tera Blast. And we're playing on a board with Terastal, so we'll deal with what we have.
And yet here we are thinking about whether or not Volcarona is a problem while we need at least 2 dedicated answers to try not to lose to Volcarona.

So this is a clear BAN for me.
 

Dead by Daylight

latin simone
is a Contributor to Smogon
ill be voting for no ban cuz yall always want a friggin ban every other week. u guys crucified ctc 4 this and now we're gonna have another suspect w volcarona cuz yalls teams got the wackest structures and sets. if volcs ban wuts next r yall gonna friggin ban ting lu or something?

y'all need to be like Tricking the greatest to ever do it. tricking in his prime would tell yall to l2p and vote no ban
dont ban volcarona, if you are good at building it's very easy to check. i would rather discuss banning something really problematic like ting lu and alomomola (both unkillable) instead of these standard mons that are easy to revenge kill either way. let's focus on unbanning palafin annihilape and lando i to make ubers ou great again. let's go council!!
these posts were just 2 weeks too late

Anyways, I will be sifting through replays this week to see the prevalence of Volc usage and whether it holds up to the claims the pro-ban side makes. Adieu.
 

FayaWizard

Amnesia
is an official Team Rateris a Smogon Discord Contributoris a Tiering Contributor
these posts were just 2 weeks too late

Anyways, I will be sifting through replays this week to see the prevalence of Volc usage and whether it holds up to the claims the pro-ban side makes. Adieu.
With some surface-level digging and help from smg (notfunny) I found a few replays of Volc doing Volc things, and would like to highlight them:
MAVERICK SHOOTERS vs Buhrito
Maverick's Volc is knocked by Buhrito's Rillaboom, takes 50% but grabs a Quiver Dance, and Veil is up for Buhrito. Buhrito switches in Kyurem, but Maverick reveals Morning Sun and heals back up to near full. Both Buhrito and Maverick then go for boosts, and Buhrito reveals Tera Fire on Kyurem believing that Maverick is Bug Buzz. Except, Maverick reveals Tera Dragon, flipping the matchup by resisting Buhrito's Tera Blast Fire (which would've OHKO'd any neutral typing, doing 51% into the resist), and smashing Kyurem for 90% before cleaning up with Flamethrower, then sweeping the rest of Buhrito's team as his only priority (Rillaboom) cannot hit Volc due to the defensive qualities of Tera Dragon.
xImRaptor vs Fogbound Lake
Fogbound revealed Stone Edge on Zamazenta earlier to force out Volcarona, and Raptor already Tera'd Ghost their Landorus-T. Zamazenta should win this, right? Except, Volcarona grabs a Quiver Dance on the Zamazenta switch-in, then reveals Substitute. Zamazenta misses the Stone Edge, Volcarona threatens 2HKO, Fogbound resigns.
Mimikyu Stardust vs Beraldinhoo
Berald brings Dragapult, Ting Lu, and Heatran, but Mimikyu manages to pick off the former two throughout the course of the game, and brings in Volcarona as their last mon in the lategame, surviving a Headlong Rush from Great Tusk to pick up a Quiver Dance, before killing Tusk with Giga Drain, then revealing Tera Ground Tera Blast and smashing Heatran to clutch the game.

These three games are good examples of the unpredictability that Volcarona causes to its set variation and Tera options. In Maverick's game, their choice of Tera Dragon + Morning Sun allowed him to beat a +2 Physical Kyurem, as well as avoid any revenge kill attempts by Buhrito's. In Raptor's game, he doesn't even have access to Tera after burning it earlier, but due to slotting on Substitute, he is still able to beat Stone Edge Zamazenta and win the game. In Mimikyu's game, Berald brings 3 Volcarona checks, but they are also forced to handle other threats while Mimikyu keeps their Volcarona in reserve, resulting in a lategame where two checks are dead, Mimikyu reveals Giga Drain to OHKO Tusk, and then Heatran is picked off by a simple Tera Ground Tera Blast. In all of these games, Volcarona's movepool allows it to flip the matchup on the opponent, and in two of these Tera further exasperates this problem by providing Volcarona with the coverage that it needs to sweep, with the useful bonus of a good defensive typing to boot. While I do not think Volcarona is sweeping every game it's in (and its SPL stats reflect this), I do think its set variation is unhealthy for the tier, allowing it to bypass most of its checks with the right Tera/move and steal games.
 
Very obviously problematic. Has pretty fake defensive value tbh (gonna get 4th move rockslided by kyurem lol. Or nuked by draco. Also, who genuinely thinks rilla is a problem??) so broken checks broken wouldn't be a good argument even if it wasn't already inherently not a good argument. Also kingambit comparisons are dumb. Yeah kingambit has like 4 viable teras but dark doesn't really matchup flip (except like, dozo), flying turns some checks into not checks but then they trade or kill you with priority and you're fucked, fairy is super all in, and 90% of why tera fire is used is to check volc. Also the mons that check kingambit are already mons you span on your team cause they're rly good.

I see no downside in banning this thing, and there are already enough bullshit borderline broken sweepers in this meta. #fuckroaringmoon

Ban pls
 
For anyone who wants them, I have compiled a list of every volc appearance in the OU spring seasonal losers bracket, alongside a short analysis of what happens with volc. I've tried to stay unbiased because I dont think i'm actually good enough to have an informed opinion on the whole thing, but if you think I failed to be, feel free to respond and I'll edit it accordingly.


green text: volc team wins
red text: volc team loses
replays where volc beats it counters via tera
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2098569914?p2
teras ground v gouging fire, opponent is forced to to tera and subsequently sack serp for glare and 65% on volc. Volc team wins.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2103084583
teras dragon vs bolt, ice shard weavile revenges. Volc team loses.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2103115030-doegm2yknwzoq9mv7tsy5f91f99fitzpw
teras steel to set up on beam glimm. Volc team wins.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2103142772-0zw3g8ny6me2m9ipze5jhk0v4jncqyopw
teras fairy to set up on aqua jet primarina. probably not a good example replay due to nearly all prims carrying psychic noise or CM to 1v1 it. Volc team wins.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2098637183-bzpn4vtw7jy4lxx2x5p1mas0ord9vcypw
teras ground to beat glowking but then loses to reactionary tera water dirge in combination with toxic damage. Volc team loses.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2102790818-43nkegabdd9i0541wnkooistldxac72pw
teras dragon to take out gouging and pult, wins against lastmon gambit b/c val makes sucker useles. Volc team wins.


replays where volc does very little or nothing
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2099429178?p2
volc is sacked to barraskewda in hopes of flame body which doesnt proc. Volc team loses
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2098640950-jyaksznsrst0iu3qp7rje1tei5tl5eopw
volc loses to a combo of tera'd garg and glowking after tera is burned on dnite. Volc team loses
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2103010023?p2
volc uses flamethrower once to kill kingambit. Volc team wins.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2103145271-gt3q56vbw19fwglz2gofahwrlotctmqpw
Sub volc on xDRudi's side nearly sweeps but loses 2 50/50s in the face of gambit. Opposing volc dies to this volc. The Volc team in which volc actually managed to set up wins.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2103206582?p2
volc loses to primarina in a cm war after tera was expended on wellspring. Volc team loses to its future cousin moth.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ou-761527
volc again fails to 1v1 prim due to tera expended on Bolt. Could be argued for defensive utility against rilla but team also had moon, pult, and bolt, which hardstop teraless volc. Volc team wins.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2099426782?p2
volc comes in once on steel beam from treads, the opponent is then rather humerously swept by +0/+0 glimmora. Volc team wins
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2100869445-y944kuuqhtg9gog36vn640jqshlf590pw
volc fails to 1v1 hatterene without tera, tera is later used on weavile to grab an SD in front of +1 hatt. Volc team loses.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ou-760700?p2
+1 volc teras bug to take out -1 tusk, is revenged by rillaboom at 25% and flame body doesnt proc. Volc team wins.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2102795736-czdki7qehqpwbsbj4tgfu2qck7ilnwcpw
volc doesnt set up, fails to proc flame body on tusk and is revenged by waterpon. Volc team loses.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2103014239?p2
+2 volc loses to a combo of glowking and tera fire zama with edge that misses twice ofc because it's edge. Volc team loses.

replays where volc provides defensive utility
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2102853048-48k2t6judpla3n1y0xjt1o4g0cmg6hxpw
vs kyurem a toxic'd volc with morning sun staves it off against an otherwise very kyu-weak team. Volc team wins.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-2102814575-n2lxcf50bl5f91yzqdpda4kn6vtb0ddpw
volc stops enamorus and zamazenta temporarily but has to be sacked to moon in hopes of flame body which doesnt proc. Volc team loses


Final Numbers
Volc teams had 10 wins to 9 losses, making its overall winrate about 52%
Volc tera'd in 6 instances out of 19, making its tera rate about 31.5%
In the games where volc tera'd, the volc team won 5 times of 8, making its tera'd win percentage 62.5%
Volc was used in 19 out of 48 total games, making its overall usage about 39.5%.
good statistical analysis! props for presenting it neutrally and allowing people to draw their own conclusions.

however.

it's important to note that 48 games is a small sample size and 19 is a tiny one, so it may not necessarily be indicative of volcarona's true strength (or true weakness). even with a larger sample size, winrates aren't as great an indicator of something's power or lack thereof as some people think. they're heavily influenced by the other members of a team too, as well as by the skills of whoever is piloting the team. for example, a mon could have its winrate artificially bumped up because it partners well with some other mon that tends to directly lead to wins (see: pelipper having an insanely high winrate during the arch era simply by being able to set rain for the actual broken thing). on the flip side, a mon could have its winrate dragged down because it has a high skillgate and a lot of people don't use it properly, even if it turns out to be broken when played optimally (see: shed tail orthworm in early post-cyclizar sv). also, the more teams use a mon, the closer its winrate will get to 50%, since if both teams have the same mon the match will count as 1 win and 1 loss for it no matter what.

winrates are also not influenced by other important factors such as how much work a given mon puts in or how close the game was. for example, if a volc user absolutely curbstomps the opponent with volc on turn 1, it's counted as 1 win for volc. but if the volc uses loses volc on turn 1 and ends up winning with volc not contributing to the match at all, it's still counted as 1 win for volc. a win because the volc user completely outplayed the opponent using volc is treated the same, statistically, as a win the volc user barely eked out thanks to a speed tie long after volc was out of the picture. now, treating every win equally is fine for the purposes of competition, but it's not great for statistics if you're trying to determine the merits of an individual mon based on the winrate of teams including it.

in theory, one could go through every match in a given sample to determine when a mon is putting in work or directly contributing to a win or loss, or when a mon is clearly carrying someone against a better opponent, or all of the other factors you can't get just by looking at pure win/loss rates, but in practice it becomes effectively impossible to do that in any reasonable timeframe as the sample size grows, so there's no way to get a large enough sample size to be meaningful and include the context of each match as well.

again, i appreciate you posting these stats, i just wanted to give some context to these statistics so people aren't led to draw conclusions about volc just based on its winrate from fewer than 20 matches of a single tour
 
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This is not an opinion that one would expect of me, but I find myself unable to find any actual compelling reason that Volcarona is more broken than the average power level of OU, or creates dynamics that are not otherwise present.

Finch's argument that broken check broken cannot be used as an argument for anti-Volcarona ban, especially, feels pretty off to me when that is essentially this meta. We have had actual, top level players, who influenced massively the course of this tier, pretty explicitly say that they wanted the meta shaped around extreme threats that check extreme threats. Volcarona may have a better matchup against less bulky Offense, but I for one welcome any recourse against the ladder infested full of the same HO cores, and I cannot find a reason that Volcarona is uniquely bad.

Like, deadass, I can think of less actual, consistent checks to Kingambit than Volcarona. Kingambit with its own sets can find itself tanking high-powered attacks, getting free Sword Dance boosts and then using priority in its favor. From there you have Encore and maybe status, but that's about it, and that's less than Volcarona having actual Pokemon that you can use to check it, and Pokemon that can be used on several teamstyles. Running Clodsire on a Balance team is not going to kill you, and in fact it is pretty damn good. Kingambit's recourse is essentially around limiting it by not just attacking it, or trying to catch it into Tera Catch 22's that are not consistent. And right now is considered one of Kingambit's weaker periods through the tier. If that Pokemon at its best was not broken, I find it hard to think Volcarona is uniquely busted.

You wanted your Tera Broken check Broken metagame, and that's what happened. Volcarona is a broken that checks some other brokens, which is the same as most other top tiers in this meta. Do not say "this is not what we wanted", because that is what literally a member of the council advocated for, and berated the rest of the council at the time for banning this thing. Volcarona is on its way to a DNB 50% 50% vote and the council back at square one, and at this point I just think it's funny. Use the Metagame Knowledge :tm: by playing in order to just know the Tera, EZ.

Now to be clear, because some would categorize me as saying "it should be banned but I don't want it to", this is not me saying that Volcarona should be banned, but that it should not be banned because it is literally just an average top tier in this metagame, let's be serious. Almost every top tier can do almost anything provided, this one literally has more counterplay on average.
I really disagree with this logic.

Broken checks broken is NOT a meta we should strive for. I’m pretty sure several of the OU council members, who are the top authority of OU, have said this before.

Who cares if a couple of top ladder/tourney players say they like the current broken checks broken meta? “Top player” is not equivalent to a good tier administrator. It’s like saying a self-made billionare is the best opinion on government fiscal policy. That’s why I prefer to weight the opinions the actual OU forum heads, who were chosen because of their tiering and management knowledge beyond just being good players.

There is a legitimately enjoyable and balanced meta that is attainable, but this requires a broken mon to be banned one at a time until the true maxima of balance/enjoyment is reached. This is literally how tiering policy works.

People tend to jump on the bandwagon of whatever “Top Player X” says. It’s human nature. But at the end of the day, they are one opinion, and like all opinions potentially flawed or even featuring conflict of interest. Consider many opinions and think for yourself.

If we refuse to ban anything that might be broken, then how are we ever gonna get past a broken checks broken meta?

Some illegitimate arguments for DNB:
> “But defensive utility!”
> “But (insert X mon here) is more broken!”

With these arguments nothing will ever get banned in a meta with multiple broken mons checking each other.

Edit: Changed my wording to be a bit less inflammatory. If you disagree with me feel free to spam laugh reacs, I don’t mind.
 
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Im not sure where I stand on Volc currently, it can definitely get out of hand and spiral but it definitely can also be stopped. I feel like banning if from using tera blast rather than banning it altogether may be a healthier middle ground b/c defensive tera sets arent too too oppressive imho
 



Hello everyone, the OU tiering council has decided to test Volcarona!



Volcarona is one of the strongest win conditions in the history of modern Overused, rising to prominence in its debut generation of BW and remaining one of the better set-up options across the last thireteen years. While losing Hidden Power and gaining Heavy-Duty Boots reshaped Volcarona last generation, Terastallization had perhaps the biggest impact on its presence ever this generation. After a controversial quickban earlier this generation, Volcarona was reintroduced to our flagship metagame with hopes that it would stay afloat this time around. However, the infamous Quiver Dancer, frequently dubbed the match-up Moth, is once again a controversial presence in the metagame.

With Quiver Dance, free turns can allow for Volcarona to become quite powerful. While certain strategies like timely priority or Unaware can dwarf the potential Volcarona sweep that comes after boosting, other forms of defensive counterplay become more circumstantial than reliable in the current landscape. With access to Terastallization, it is possible for Volcarona to morph it's offensive presence and defensive presence, which can prove deadly for the opponent if they have the right type and timing. Of course, there is an enormous opportunity cost to doing this and there is still some counterplay to each individual Volcarona variant, including a bit of overlap between the sets.

In terms of Volcarona sets in the metagame, it is always using Quiver Dance and a Fire STAB, which is often Fiery Dance and occasionally Fire Blast for extra power. Other non-attacking moves like Morning Sun or Substitute can permit certain beneficial lines like repeatedly tanking Fairy or Ice types thanks to Morning Sun or avoiding status moves like Toxic behind a Substitute. Bug Buzz is a solid option as a second attack on Volcarona, gaining popularity recently to cover Ogerpon-Wellspring and Ting Lu while giving a neutral option into Dragon and Water types to compliment the Fire STAB. Giga Drain is used sporadically, too, in order to further deter Water types like Primarina and Dondozo while also hitting Garganacl.

However, the most dynamic coverage option for Volcarona is Tera Blast, frequently being used alongside the Ground or Dragon type. This element of Volcarona allows for it to handpick its own counterplay a lot of the time. Previously the OU tiering council opened a discussion on Tera Blast and Volcarona here for those curious. Here is an excerpt from the OP on the topic that is still relevant to this discussion:


There are numerous downsides to Volcarona though. For example, it is reliant on Terastallization a lot of the time to reach its potential, which means that some games it could offer diminishing returns and on the whole it is essentially a high maintenance Pokemon in a metagame where players can already be stretched thin. In addition, there are a handful of universal stops to Volcarona. Specially Defensive Skeledirge, Calm Mind Blissey, and Clodsire tend to be safe into most Volcarona variants while other recent trends like Brave Bird Moltres and Choice Band Extreme Speed Dragonite also do well. The first group oftentimes fits onto defensive and balanced teams, but offensive teams often are able to allocate a Tera type on the right Pokemon to keep Volcarona in check if they cannot revenge kill it or stop it up-front, too. This is not the most reliable practice as the it hinges on what Volcarona's Tera status and potentially preserving numerous Pokemon though, leading Volcarona to cause a strain on teambuilding and gameplay alike.

Overall, Volcarona is one of the best win conditions in the metagame, but it is also higher maintenance than most others, oftentimes being referred to as a Tera hog. It lacks too distinguished a defensive presence, being mainly able to check stray Fairy and Ice attacks without covering a ton of Pokemon reliably. However, it is a dynamic offensive presence with the potential to snowball out of control with the right circumstances. Defensive stalwarts like Skeledirge, Clodsire, and Blissey can oftentimes stop Volcarona in its tracks, but not too many other Pokemon that fit onto different atchetypes find themselves reliable into Volcarona's potential arsenal. This suspect will b used to determine if Volcarona is too much for the metagame or if the playerbase determines it to be balanced in SV OU!


  • Reading this is mandatory for participating in the suspect test!!! The voting requirements are a minimum GXE of 80 with at least 50 games played. In addition, you may play 1 less game for every 0.2 GXE you have above 80 GXE, down to a minimum of 30 games at a GXE of 84. Also, needing more than 50 games to reach 80 GXE will suffice.
GXEminimum games
8050
80.249
80.448
80.647
80.846
8145
81.244
81.443
81.642
81.841
8240
82.239
82.438
82.637
82.836
8335
83.234
83.433
83.632
83.831
8430

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    • Do not argue because it's your favorite Pokemon. This should be common sense, but please don't do this, because we will delete posts like this.
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Should you have any questions about the suspect test, feel free to message the OU Council. And if you have any questions about the moderation of this thread, feel free to message the OU Forum Leaders. I am tagging dhelmise and Marty to let them know about this, too.

Keep in mind that our suspect tests are decided by the community; anyone who rightfully achieves voting requisites is allowed to vote. The outcome is up to you.

I am pro-Volcarona.


Before I address the main pro-ban arguments and provide counter-arguments, I would first like to start with the reasons why Volcarona´s presence is good for the tier.


-Volcarona offers a unique form of Role Compression:

Generally, there are 2 ways in which we cover for threats defensively on the teambuilder, we either dedicate part of our defensive cores to the Physical Side and another part to take care of the Special Side, or, we build teams with Pokemon reasonably bulky on both sides, that make use of their defensive typing to compensate the lack of extraordinaty bulk, in order to switch in to threats. In a metagame that has on multiple occasions been polarized into Stall and HO (not the present, but could happen again), that has been criticized for the lack of match-up consistency, and where this kind of teambuilding idea becomes increasingly rare, Volcarona often combats this issue by answering decently threats that range from Iron Valiant to Kyurem and Kingambit. Speaking of which:


-Volcarona has a good match-up into most of the problematic/controversial Pokemon in the metagame:

With the exception of Ogerpon-Wellspring, Volcarona´s match-ups and capacity to limit Kingambit, Kyurem, Gholdengo, Iron Valiant, and even Dragapult to some extent is a valuable contribution towards a balanced state of the metagame. While it could be argued that Iron Valiant is no longer a problematic presence in the metagame, the same could be argued prior to Volcarona´s quickban earlier in the generation. What we saw after that was a dramatic increase in Iron Valiant usage and complaints about how uncompetitive it was. Regarding Dragapult, Volcarona only has a good capacity to limit the Wisp + U-turn set, getting obliterated by CB and not being a big enjoyer of Specs Shadow Ball either, but at least, it can punish U-turns from the Pivot Set withouth much risk.



Now, addressing pro-ban arguments:

"Volcarona lacks counters"

The main flaw I see with this argument, is that it is not an argument against Volcarona, but one against Tera Blast. Withouth Tera Blast, Volcarona can not beat Heatran, Clodsire, Skeledirge, Gouging Fire etc. Banning Tera Blast is preferable to banning Volcarona, not only because there are multiple other Pokemon that are only deemed broken because of Tera Blast, like Regieleki but also because something will take Volcarona´s role after it gets banned, Tera Blast Ground Iron Moth seems like a plausible candidate. This argument is also flawed from the perspective that even with Tera Blast being allowed, some counters still exist, like Cm Blissey or defensive Teras on Unaware Pokemon to beat Tera Ground.


"Volcarona is a match-up moth"

This relates to the previous argument and only occurs when you are fishing with Tera Blast. However, Defensive Volcarona always finds some use and value into all match-ups, either Kingambit´s presence, Wisp Dragapult, Resisted Contact Physical attacks (punished by flame body), or the need to Rapid Spin Hazards (Spin Punishment), give it a solid match-up into everything, even being able to pull-off a valuable will-o-wisp on Clodsire
vs Stall occasionally.



Other metagame factors such as the rise of AV Primarina (especially Psychic Noise) and SPD Garganacl also severely limit Volcarona and are rarely mentioned in this thread.
 
"Volcarona lacks counters"

The main flaw I see with this argument, is that it is not an argument against Volcarona, but one against Tera Blast. Withouth Tera Blast, Volcarona can not beat Heatran, Clodsire, Skeledirge, Gouging Fire etc. Banning Tera Blast is preferable to banning Volcarona, not only because there are multiple other Pokemon that are only deemed broken because of Tera Blast, like Regieleki but also because something will take Volcarona´s role after it gets banned, Tera Blast Ground Iron Moth seems like a plausible candidate.

This, i think restricting tera blast on volc helps and should be step one before a ban, which is why im tempted to vote to keep it
 
C54ED6D7-3729-4BE5-8EBF-1AC456DF6500.jpeg


Regarding my previous comment, here is an illustration.

The X axis is # of bans in OU, Y axis is tier Balance Rating.

The solid line is a gross simplification of past trajectory, the dashed line is a hypothetical future trajectory.

The star represents where we are. The broken checks broken meta is a local maxima of tier balance. Ban any one broken mon with defensive utility and others get out of hand. The overall balance of the tier decreases.

With enough additional bans that follow this initial destabilizion, the tier could restabilize at another maxima, the absolute maxima of balance.

If you only consider the short sided view, then your response would to not ban any “broken” mon with sufficient defensive utility. And you would never find the absolute maxima, being content to sit at the local maxima.

My understanding of tiering policy is that it strives to find the absolute/global maxima of balance for the tier. This requires assessing one mon at a time for brokenness without regard to defensive utility.

This is why “defensive utility”, or “keeping other broken mons in check” is not, and has never been, a good argument for DNB.
 

Finchinator

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This, i think restricting tera blast on volc helps and should be step one before a ban, which is why im tempted to vote to keep it
Read the OP and the hyperlinked thread — we just had a discussion on Tera Blast and it ultimately led to this suspect. It’s Volcarona ban or no action on either for the time being. No action is entirely fine of course, but that’s the parameters of this suspect to be clear.
 
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