Gee I do not know why it has any real bearing when I just pointed out that say the Celtics-Heat rebounding stayed the exact same (35.9 versus 40.4 to 36 to 41). If the Bulls rebound the Heat by 10 a game, then they will win the series runninga way. You would rather fixate on minor issues and pretend this is clear cut, Bulls iz doomed!11 The Bulls have scored 95.1 points per game and given up 89.2. The Heat have scored 94.4 and given up 89. The perception the Bulls are performing worse is in your head. The Bulls outrebounded the Heat and got more assists in the regular season, as well as being superior on FT. Sports are not so simple as for "one team is hot, the other is not" (which is not even the case here) to mean much.
The problem with using matchups is that you say "zomg the bulls will be outscored at three positions, surely they are losing!!!" when in fact facts like "the Bulls will probably outrebound the Heat by a minimum of 7 per game" present a different story. Besides, the Bulls are going to gash the Heat at two positions, we have no idea what the matchup story means. Bosh has played very poorly, why should we care about that matchup (which would leave it at 2-2).
It is not white and black either way. Please stop treating it like it is, that is really dumb. Treating it like they can only win if Derrick Rose lights things up also does not make sense. During the regular season, the Bulls swept the Heat with close wins, an average score of 93-90. That is "defense winning". The efficiency is about the same, but Bulls owned the area around the paint in the regular season. One of the reasons the Bulls are destroying the Celtics is being destroyed in rebounding, and that will not happen to the Bulls (who outrebounded the Heat 43-33 regular season; Celtics lost the rebounding battle regular season even though they were beating the Heat, and have been outrebounded about the same, a margin of 5 instead of 4.5). I am not saying the regular season ensures the Bulls win, I am just saying that the Bulls are the more likely team to win even though they have not stormed through the playoffs so far. Your obsession with matchups is just making you make bad arguments again.Being reliant on Rose means that they're hoping he equalizes every other match-up the Heat could possibly win. and...the center matchup does not exist? I addressed one point properly, I do not care about addressing "all the matchups" It will take its toll because if Wade and LeBron dominate their match-up enough (and they most likely will since Luol Deng and Keith Bogans/Korver aren't exactly scorers), Rose isn't going to outscore or produce more than those guys by himself especially if he has to do more work than both of them. Being both the only efficient point guard and leading scorer will be so tiring that it's already had its effects before this series (see below). Come the fourth quarter, and who's going to have more energy to finish off games the Bulls, who have an entire team?
And yeah, defense will win it, but it can't be the only factor we go by (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/defensiveEff/seasontype/3 their defensive efficiency isn't that far apart and that's considering that the Celtics and Sixers are overall better offensive teams than Indiana and Atlanta) the Sixers played worse than the Pacers!, but you have to consider who's going to score enough points for the Bulls even if they play defense. One of the Bulls' biggest problems in the playoffs has been scoring even in their good defensive games. Their bench is struggling worse than the Heat's, they get about as much offensive production from their centers in scoring as the Heat do they get a lot more, have you seen Z-Bo this playoffs??, and they suck at shooting guard the same way the Heat suck at point guard. So really, they're only expected to win one category like the Celtics right now.
I really think it just comes down to how much they can keep up with the Heat while Rose isn't on the floor or on his A-Game. With the Heat, you got at least two guys who can share that load.
Edit: Rose is actually not doing that well in the playoffs statistically. 41% FG with 25% 3pt (this can be attributed to the huge increase in usage rating) I never said he was? I already talked about playing down to the competition. The Bulls are a better team than the Heat, either one can win, but everyone is acting like it is a sure thing like they make the mistake of doing with every fucking series like this..
Now, if you want some scary numbers on what happens when Rose is on the bench...
http://www.nba.com/statscube/team-vs-player.html#Bulls-vs-Derrick-Rose|1610612741,201565;season=p
They do so horribly worse that I really doubt one Heat player makes that much of a difference negatively (I took LeBron and Wade's numbers and the drop in production is definitely sustainable).
So, do the Bulls have a chance? Of course, it would just have to involve either Rose being on Michael Jordan levels no it would not, stop being stupid (near impossible), or some other big two making up for the scoring while also defending their counterparts (I would assume that would be Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer). The latter definitely sounds more likely and that can happen, but at the same time... I look at the Celtics who essentially are great at the same positions except with an old man center, one armed point guard, and role players like Jeff Green getting major playing time and think, how will Luol Deng and Boozer fare better? Especially if Boozer has had some strange defensive games lately.
wrong about Boozer/Bosh, right about every single other thing...Deng with the D, the team with the rebounding, win the point guard and center matchups, win the seriesThe Heat shot much better on threes and had a few less turnovers if I recall. Rebounds are not going to ensure a win, but the Bulls will have the consistency edge by default.
I know what matchups do. Unfortunately they are basically impossible to quantify, which we proved quite nicely with you being completely wrong about the Mavericks-Blazers series. Nice that you ignore the Bulls producing better than the Heat just because "it took more possessions" or whatever though. Nice that you keep assuming Deng will suddenly fail to defend the Heat or something. Garnett is a better defender than Boozer, but an old guy with bad knees who cannot maintain it. Bosh and Boozer create similar benefits and disadvantages for their own teams, I still do not see why you see a difference when Bosh does not work in the Heat system, and although Boozer's injury may be of actual importance, this is not something that will decide the series. I concede that Boozer has fallen off more (I think because of the injury), but Bosh has fallen. Both are looking to continue to suck at offense. Bosh is working on a nice 2-6 right now.
Phizzlax, Boozer and Bosh have rebounded the same and are both shooting .450 even and .417. Bosh's FT has slipped to 75%, but he is getting more than Boozer so that is nice I guess. The matchup is a wash, neither is likely going to contribute enough to alter the series unless it is defensively.
someone isnt taking this loss too wellwell obviously the heat are trying to make the sad celtics and lakers fans feel happy, so they let the bulls wreck their shit.
still heat in 6. 2006 finals style
Bulls won 3/3 close games because they outrebounded the fuck out of the Heat. This series is over.Heat better adjust and come in with a plan next game, otherwise things will be looking a tad grim...who had the regular season advantage anyways?
There isn't really much I didn't give credit for how the Bulls would win games already.So, Rose is definitely going to need at least some help from the perimeter whether defensively limiting the team enough to where it doesn't matter or offensively to give him the space he needs to lessen the amount of pressure on him. As for the Heat, they're going to face a better perimeter defense than the Celtics. More athleticism and length that matches their own perimeter defenders, so they aren't in the clear just yet exactly themselves.
What I'll personally look for in this series:
Personally, I think the biggest questions I have about this series in terms of deciding who's more likely to win are the following:
- The Heat are going to trap Rose constantly and relentlessly due to their speed and length, so how much scoring and playmaking help will Rose get from his teammates?(http://nbaplaybook.com/2011/05/16/the-mixed-bag-that-is-miamis-pick-and-roll-defense/#more-14522) How much help will he get from the perimeter in general?
- Are Boozers going to booze or is Bosh going to come out like a bosh?
- Will Korver be any use in large minutes? He is their least effective defensive player but their BEST shooter from the perimeter. If the Bulls aren't making shots, imagine how much of a bind that puts Thibodeau in. Sacrifice defense for offense or sacrifice offense for defense?
- If Miami's perimeter players don't make that big of an impact, will the frontline of Miami show-up in any way possible?
The Bulls' side of things
It wouldn't surprise me to see the Bulls win, though. If they do win, it will be frontline dominance. Blocked shots, second chance points, and keeping the big three off the line. This can actually help the Bulls generate points if they perform at least most of these things. I simply think there probably won't be enough of these to go around.
Heat in six.
I could go with "someone is taking the loss too well"someone isnt taking this loss too well