Greetings, NBA fans! As usual, I make the tradition of predicting the rankings of both conferences for the next NBA season. These are based on the information I have now and as far as I know, the rosters that are currently displayed. Obviously, if someone makes a huge trade or a key player is injured, these things could change in multitude of ways. I’m merely going by probabilities here. Also, these are regular season predictions. It says nothing about what will actually happen in the playoffs.
It's been a long time before you could say there were seven or eight possible teams who could win the title or even just visit the Finals. The crop of contenders has been increasing steadily through the past few years: Indiana, Oklahoma City, Los Angeles (Clippers), and now Brooklyn, Houston, and Golden State want to attempt to join the discussion with their offseason bargains.
Perimeter play is still the dominant force in this league; especially by the point guard position. Athletic and mobile big men who can defend are still difference makers, but with hot play from LeBron James, Derrick Rose, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Paul George, and rookies like Kyrie Irving, Damian Lilliard, and Harrison Barnes becoming overnight all-stars, the league continues to enter in a perimeter-based league rather than big, tall fours and fives of the past.
(1) Chicago Bulls
(2) Miami Heat
(3) Brooklyn Nets
(4) Indiana Pacers
(5) New York Knicks
(6) Atlanta Hawks
(7) Washington Wizards
(8) Toronto Raptors
"If it's my Mom on the court, she's going to get killed." – Derrick Rose
The Eastern Conference has always been the far weaker conference compared to the West, but this year, there are finally a decent number of competitive teams. I’ll start off by saying yes; I don’t think Miami is guaranteed a first seed this year. When you consider the amount of mileage that team has been through and the challenges they have to face night-in, night-out, they’re bound to succumb to some possible temporary drop-off in efficiencysometime. I’d never put them below two, however. Chicago, Brooklyn, and Indiana can really be shuffled around anyway you like. I like Chicago’s chances because they not only have continuity, but I feel they grew from not having Derrick Rose for an entire year as players. Also, if their preseason indicated any sign (I made this choice before I heard about their 8-0 record and Rose averaging 20 ppg), they should be in great shape. Thibodeau’s defensive schemes are hard to bet against, Rose seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder, and if I had to choose a team that would dethrone Miami’s top conference regular season spot, it would be the team that already done it before.
Brooklyn and Indiana, I psychologically see them behind Chicago for a couple of reasons. Brooklyn has the most talent out all three, but with a new coach and pretty much an overhauled roster, I predict an adjustment period is needed. They’re also much older players save for Deron Williams. There’s going to be a bit of a conflict in pace as well. They need to find themselves first; or maybe they don't need as much of an adjustment period and the mere veteran savvy of Garnett and Pierce makes up for Jason Kidd's rookie year.
Indiana’s never been higher than a three seed but you could make the argument that with their improved bench, it’s their time to go higher than that. Why would I make an improved team drop, though? Why are they the odd team out of the super-powered four? I suppose I just don’t see Indiana as a regular season success type of team. When I look at the teams ahead of them, they have more talent. Two have just as much continuity and Brooklyn has a starting line-up where leaving one guy open sounds like a bad idea. It was hard to do this, but compared to those three, Indiana has more reason to fall down slightly. What, with the confusion of the whole Granger/Stephenson thing, and their offense being the worst, I’m just not feeling a strong regular season showing from them.
New York is somewhat sandwiched between the top and the bottom. I honestly have very little to comment on them. They get better defensively (Metta World Peace) on the perimeter. Bargnani gives them another stretch 4, so they can at least continue their outshoot pacing strategy. I suppose they could be a fourth seed, but no higher. Brooklyn easily has them outclassed in my view.
This year’s bottom Eastern Conference clusterfucks include: Atlanta, Toronto, Cleveland, Detroit, and Milwaukee. Which three are going to be lucky?
Well, I have to give the top one to Atlanta. Despite it going against my belief in continuity being more likely for regular season success, I actually believe losing Josh Smith makes them worse and better at the same time. More possessions go to Al Horford who is a guy actually getting buckets near the rim. He knows who he is a lot better than Smith does offensively. Smith was more of an advantage defensively than he was offensively. Atlanta’s issue comes when you consider who makes up for his defensive versatility? I like what they have there even with Lou Williams still injured. The Millsap/Horford combo is enough to make the playoffs in the East, right? Millsap almost did it in the West which is undoubtedly more talented than the East. Give them a Poppovich-type of coach, and there you have it: sixth seed in the East. They will start off rocky and need an adjustment period, though. Teague will also have to play some above-average point-guard play. I actually believe putting them this high is probably the biggest "risk" out of all these teams to do, but I'm going to bank on a breakout year for Horford.
So, this leaves us with four teams left. Well, I consider Milwaukee the lowest on the totem pole here, but I guess they could snatch an eight seed. I’m not counting on it, though. Their big-men can’t create or shoot, and their perimeter guys are average to below-average shooters and pick-and-roll players. Compared to the other three teams, they’re going to have an incredibly tough time finding offense. The only reason Milwaukee made the playoffs last year was out of playing just enough good defense for their inconsistent offense to not matter.
Cleveland, Washington, Toronto, and Detroit have me stumped. Potentially, you could shuffle these four any way you like, but Detroit has fallen off my trust list. Billups is the only long-distance gunner and he’s almost out of gas. Brandon Jennings and his doppelganger big-man counterpart Josh Smith take the worst shots in basketball. If it wasn’t enough, they have no real continuity and their frontline is redundant. They could make the playoffs just by talent alone, but their offense is going to be horrendous. They’ll need to play defense so good to get over their strange offensive line-ups. Not something to place your confidence in.
I really, really like Washington being a step above these guys in continuity. John Wall returned from injury last year with much success, and Marcin Gortat is one of the most underrated dudes in the league. If this team’s healthy, they got what it takes. Clevelandhas the biggest range in my opinion and it all hinges on Bynum. Even without Bynum, Cleveland still has a relatively decent shot here. They could be as high as sixth or as low as tenth. They have more depth than ever with Jarrett Jack, Earl Clark, and now a possible Bynum to dominate most of the East. Varejao returns and their number one pick Bennett could be promising even in year one. Toronto has the advantage of continuity just like Washington (which is why I both favor them over Cleveland), and just like Washington, they were already a .5 team after the Rudy Gay trade. Perhaps with their aggressive guards and not-as redundant-big-men as Detroit’s, they’ll sneak in as well. No real shooting but hey, I trust their guards over Detroit’s. Again, really tempted to exchange Toronto for Cleveland but… Bynum is a hard guy to trust. With the way Varejao plays, it’s hard to trust he can play healthy for a full season as well. Also, we’ve never seen Mike Brown coach without a legitimate top ten player on a roster before. Irving would have to play to a level considerably higher than he did last year for me to see Cleveland make it this year. It’s definitely possible, but Cleveland will certainly make the playoffs next year after yet another year of improvement.
Out of who makes the playoffs out of Cleveland/Detroit/Toronto, I just think about who’s more likely to be healthy, who has continuity, and whose rookies/sophomores are more likely to have a breakout season. Toronto’s center Jonas Valanciunas? Detroit’s crowded frontline? Cleveland’s healthy Bynum and/or Tristan Thompson and Bennett being worth anything? You can toss in Bradley Beal for Washington too, but I consider that a given.
The East has many mysteries, but these are all the possibilities I considered, and these are the rankings I feel are most probable. Chicago, Miami, and Indiana are likely to be the East’s long-term future of top eastern teams. Brooklyn is a bit shakier since they have older players. I could see Cleveland, Washington, and possibly even Toronto as one of those up-and-coming future deep teams, but they’re still trying to find that winning formula.
(1) Los Angeles Clippers
(2) San Antonio Spurs
(3) Oklahoma City Thunder
(4) Houston Rockets
(5) Golden State Warriors
(6) Memphis Grizzlies
(7) Dallas Mavericks
(8) Portland Trailblazers
Show me. Don't tweet me. - Kevin Durant
The West wasn’t as hard for me to attempt to figure out. The three divisional champions are pretty obvious in my opinion. Although, you might be able to argue Houston possibly topping or equaling San Antonio, but they still need that adjustment period before they’re considered West Elite by me. Los Angeles being number one is probably a surprise pick to most, but to not seem so cookie-cutter this year, I’m going to go out on a limb and say Doc Rivers turns this Los Angeles team into another masterpiece since the 07-08 Boston Celtics. With the offensive weapons they have and Rivers superior offensive mind compared to Del Negro, they should ascend once again in the regular season. It also helps that their division is absolute wet bread.
Oklahoma City is going to have trouble without Westbrook the first month and a half or so. Durant is all alone on an island with this team right now. I’m not really seeing this Oklahoma City team do much.. they might even drop to mid-tier level these days. San Antonio might be a bit tanked from the finals hangover and well, Poppovich just isn’t a guy to care about the regular season much. I just know they’ll be top three.
Houston, Golden State, and Memphis are my mid-tier guys. I actually feel really bad about Memphis hence why I have them on the lower end. A new coach coupled with offensive woes from the playoffs going into the preseason makes me doubt that he has any kind of plan in mind to help them improve even with Mike Miller. Golden State can only improve with Iguodala, but their injuries make me put them below Houston. Their bench situation with Barnes is also intriguing. They could run circles around this league for quite some time. If Bogut actually plays a healthy season, you could certainly argue a top three seed for them. I feel really good about Houston. Harden/Dwight will turn out to be one of the best one-two punches ever conceived. Unlike the old Orlando Magic, Dwight’s supporting cast can actually get to the line and to the rim; in addition to shooting threes. I think this team at least skill wise is better than the majority of Orlando’s old perimeter players.
The bottom two seeds of the West are reserved for the murky teams: Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trailblazers, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Denver Nuggets.
Well, my thought process here is that I counted out both Denver and Los Angeles. There are a lot (well, too much) of delusion going on into the Los Angeles fan mindset going in. Los Angeles Lakers will not make the playoffs. I repeat, they will not make the playoffs. Not with a team as defensively horrible as this:
Steve Nash
Chris Kaman
Pau Gasol
Three of your starters probably have the worst statistics in defending the pick-and-roll like, ever. I don’t care how offensively talented this team is. Any offense they magically give you is lost with the points they give up, and considering these are the only guys on the team who can create their own shot, you're simply stuck between wanting to score but not lose points versus wanting to defend but also score points. They're stuck between a rock and a hard place on that one. Gasol is getting older, and he won't be as dominant as he was three or four years ago. Without any defensive five to cover-up for him, he's merely a shadow of his former offensive self and maybe even worse defensively.
This roster just has laughable standards for defending top perimeter play. This team’s defense was already terrible with Dwight Howard and Metta World Peace. Yes, Dwight Howard saved this team’s defense. Los Angeles fans are going to disagree with me here, but I’ve followed Dwight for years. He kept Los Angeles' defense out of the terribad territory enough to make them a seventh seed. Replacing him with Chris Kaman is going to make your defense a laughing stock now in front of any point guard who can dribble and shoot. Borderline playoff teams like Dallas, Portland, and maybe even Minnesota have slightly improved. Kobe Bryant will have to average 40 points a game or so for this team to even have hopes of making the playoffs, and we’re not even sure when he comes back or if he’ll even come back as GodKobe. There is just no way this team makes the playoffs with the way this league has catered to perimeter players and the improvement of West's middle-ground teams. #Teamdelusion.
Denver lost their best wing-defender, coach, and is now in the middle of a transition period. With not a single decent defender on this roster, they will suffer the same fate as Los Angeles. Do I trust McGee to want anything to do with anything even seemingly like a triangle offense? Nope.
So, that leaves Dallas, Minnesota, and Portland (Sorry, New Orleans. You have great guard depth, Davis may have a breakout year, but your guards aren't mature enough to handle 41 road games just yet). Portland’s been a team to burn me every time I make a prediction about them. They improved their bench, they find a true center, and they have the Rookie of the Year on their hands. Why couldn’t they make the playoffs? Oh yeah, their history of injury. Well, Minnesota suffers from just as much. This is the healthiest, most deep Minnesota team in a long while, so they are likely to battle it out with Portland. My only problem with Minnesota is that they were ranked bottom third defensively with Kirilenko. Portland at least has the excuse of playing their starters heavy minutes and not having a center for their reason to be defensively-challenged. They also have more offensive go-to weapons and well, their injury history is less tainted. So, I decided to go with them.
Dallas is at the top of my murky West list and deservingly so. The logic goes that Nowitzki was injured more than half the season last year and they just barely missed the playoffs. The team has improved undoubtedly and so as long as their defense is average, they should actually be a pretty good mid-tier team. I’m tempted to put them around a five or six seed but you never know with LolMavs. Calderon/Ellis/Dirk is actually a very nice offensive combo. They did some amazing things in the preseason. If Dalembert is serviceable as a poor man’s Chandler and Dirk is healthy, Dallas is a mid-tier team point blank assuming Dirk hasn't lost half of what he was two years ago.
The West is changing as the once dominant Los Angeles Lakers have fallen, Dallas’ days are coming soon, and San Antonio barely has a hurrah left on them. The future now lies in the hands of the other Los Angeles, Oklahoma City, and possibly Golden State and Houston. Nine of the ten final appearances of western teams have either been Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio, or Dallas. We are still in the middle of the growing period for these up-and-coming western teams. Meanwhile, teams like Denver, Portland, Minnesota, and possibly soon New Orleans are still trying to find that winning formula to join the ranks of mid-tier someday soon.
