So I finally dusted off Pearl and got to battle 500, and decided it was actually worth a warstory. I was challenged by Veteran Mikel, who uses these pokemon:
Veteran Mikel: LEGENDARIES
Articuno 1-4, Zapdos 1-4, Moltres 1-4, Raikou 1-4, Entei 1-4, Suicune 1-4, Regirock 1-4, Regice 1-4, Registeel 1-4, Latias 1-4, Latios 1-4, Heatran 1-4, Cresselia 1-4,Regigigas 1-4
He leads with Regice, which is the worst lead to go against because of Clear Body (can't Flash) and predominantly special attacks I can't address with Reflect. No other Legendary pokemon is "immune to" both Flash and Reflect, meaning I kind of don't care about Registeel's Thunder or Flash Cannon since it is never going to beat Latios even if it doesn't use Curse or Rain Dance first turn (which I doubt). Three Regice have Ice Beam, and one has Leftovers I prefer to take because it turns Ice Beam into a 5-6HKO before possible FPs which can allow Scizor to actually Sub regardless of FPs during Scizor vs. Regice (IB breaks the Sub). I Trick and take Chesto Berry, which is "eh" because I know what I have to do anyway. For posterity this was a 2-in-56 chance of facing a non-Leftovers Ice Beam Regice—Cresselia seriously has no trouble reducing every other Legendary pokemon to setup fodder, a welcome benefit to using Cresselia over Lopunny.
So Trick, TW, can't do anything but sacrifice Cresselia since switching Scizor into IB makes no sense. After four IBs Cresselia offers its still-soothing sigh of a cry...and now I now have a decision to make. I can go to Scizor and SD knowing I can get at least two in before having to attack, or I can go with Latios to purposely try and stall out the rest of the Ice Beams and put either Latios or Scizor in a better position to sweep. I knew I was facing a Ledge Trainer, though, and felt it would be better to have Latios set up or at least waste ALL of Regice's IB PP so Scizor could set up on a Struggling Regice.
Going with Scizor first would mean that worst case I would have a naked Scizor with no boosts, at 25% after four subs (Sitrus), and Regice still with two IBs left. Scizor attacking Regice without at least +2 and a Sub would be out of the question considering how many Water, Electric and Fire Ledges there are (like half of them). Going with Latios first would mean that worst case I waste all of Regice's Ice Beam PP with four Subs and the two it will take to kill Latios after a Rest, then getting to +6 with Scizor then Subbing on the final Struggle or attacking if Regice is FP. Now accounting for the very realistic possibility of FPs makes Latios an even better choice over Scizor, as even a +1 Latios with a Sub has a great chance of beating the same largely elemental Ledges that Scizor has trouble with without full setup.
So I send out Latios.
Latios used Sub/Regice used Ice Beam #5, Sub broken, Latios at 125/154HP
Latios used Sub/Regice used Ice Beam #6, Sub broken, Latios at 96/154HP
Latios used Sub/Regice used Ice Beam #7, Sub broken, Latios at 67/154HP
Latios used Sub/Regice used Ice Beam #8, Sub broken, Latios at 38/154HP
Uh, ok. There's only a 31.6% chance it's not FP in any one of those turns...not really all that haxy but still kinda crappy. It also sucks that I have to Rest now because Latios has 154 HP and not 155, something that has probably only remotely mattered once in what 1,500 battles with this Latios (including my LLL team), since one more Sub would have made a key difference probably. I will note that if I had gone Scizor first I would have been in a worse position, since the worst-case 31.6% actually happened. Anyway, I have to Rest now so I do.
Latios uses Rest/Regice is FP (thanks for being FP now [also this is probably a major reason why Rest>Recover])
Sleep/Regice uses Ice Beam #9, Latios at 20/154HP, 29/154HP after Leftovers
Sleep/Regice is FP, 38/154HP, can't Sub, kinda lame, thanks for not doing literally one damage output less, though there was a 75% chance to do enough with that IB to prevent Sub so yeah
Latios uses Rest/Regice is FP
Sleep/Regice uses Ice Beam #10, 10/154HP, 19/154HP after Leftovers
Sleep/Regice uses Struggle 4/154HP, 13/154HP after Leftovers
Ok, now I have to switch out. To face two Ledges I'd rather have an at-worst +4 Subbed Scizor with a 13/154HP Latios about to wake up than an ~85% naked +1
or Subbed Latios after Rest/Sleep/Sleep/Wake up and CM. Yes, if Regice is FP while Struggling then Latios can be Subbed and at least +1, but why would I bank on an FP now over four more turns of Struggle when Regice wasn't FP in the four turns I really needed it? Nope, move is to switch in Scizor and get as much setup as possible with it, likely losing Sub to kill poke two and at worst majorly denting the third so Latios can awaken and kill. Again, by their nature Scizor and Latios complement each other, and since Scizor is able to at worst 2HKO every ledge with +6 and a Sub ("able" being the operative word there because of Sub) thanks to Bullet Punch, it will be able to do enough to even pokemon like Raikou and Zapdos to have Latios win with unboosted wake-up DP. I purposely made Scizor 107 Speed so it would outspeed all Heatran regardless of random nature and all Suicune that didn't have random beneficial Speed Natures, so the bulkiest pokemon I could face I would be able to use 120 Base Power Superpower on instead of 45 Base Power Bullet Punch.
Nine of the 14 types are OHKOed by +6 Scizor without me losing my Sub (Articuno, Regice, Regirock, Registeel, Regigigas, Heatran [one has sash but w/e], Suicune, Latios, and Latias), and the remaining five are all at worst 2HKOed (Moltres, Zapdos, Raikou, Entei and Cresselia). Moltres and Zapdos both die to Superpower and BP where BP sometimes isn't necessary (min/min Zappy always dies and min/min Moltres dies 94.14% of the time) but it doesn't matter because of BP's priority. Raikou and Entei are always faster but always die to even +4 SP, meaning I may opt for Bullet Punch so as not to lose my Sub and/or drop my Attack for at worst the 2HKO (I can CH, they can use stupid moves like Rain Dance or miss with Fire Blast). And Cresselia needs absolute max damage with max SpA EVs neutral nature Psychic to break Scizor's Sub, and only one has max SpA EVs. So nine of the 13 pokes Scizor can face after Regice Struggles to death will not even be able to threaten its Sub. I like my chances.
So I switch Scizor into Regice's second Struggle, Swords Dance on its third Struggle, again on its fourth rolling my eyes at the lack of FPs here too, and Sub as it Struggles away its last 3 HP, rolling my eyes at another "kinda crappy" 31.6% string of four consecutive no FPs. Not to worry, though, since as I just detailed there are only four Ledges of the 13 left that even have a chance to break Scizor's Sub. So naturally:
Veteran Mikel sends out Moltres!
I have to face one of them. Feel kinda annoyed here because the last thing I wanted to see was a Fire-Type, and then I remembered how stupid Pearl was to give not one but
two Moltres Brightpowder so I felt even sicker. I reeeeeeally don't feel like losing at 500, so I take a look at my potential opposition to determine my best option with an 81/156, +4 Atk, Subbed Scizor:
897 Moltres Hasty Heat Rock Sunny Day Flamethrower Solar Beam Endure Def/Speed
911 Moltres Mild King's Rock Air Slash Agility Heat Wave Pluck HP/Sp. Def/Speed
925 Moltres Modest Brightpowder Overheat Sky Attack Fireblast U-Turn Atk/Sp. Atk/Sp. Def
939 Moltres Timid Brightpowder Flamethrower Air Slash Will-O-Wisp Double Team Sp. Atk/Speed
After running through a few calcs I realize that the first one will only die to two BPs a little over 1-in-7 times, but will die over half the time to SP+BP, and there's a chance it will Endure I guess. I do exactly 50% min to the second one, so obviously kill 2, 3, and 4 with two Bullet Punches. There is just mathematically a better chance that Bullet Punch is a wiser move than Superpower, especially because even if it's the first one and I don't kill it, it cannot beat Latios heads-up unless it uses Sunny Day on a 13/154HP Latios (incredibly unlikely as it would probably attack a low-HP poke) that will Rest, then CHes Latios twice in a row in his sleep with Flamethrower. So Bullet Punch it is.
Scizor uses Bullet Punch, miss/Moltres uses Overheat, hits, SpA drop, breaks Substitute
Oh. Okay. I kinda snorted in laughter when I didn't see Moltres flash on my screen (animations are off), expecting in the millisecond longer Pearl's delay is than Platinum's for me to hit, and denying that I could actually have been Brightpowdered by one of the only pokemon that could threaten me with Super Effective Damage and have a chance to live to tell the tale the next turn (read: no Entei survive +4 Superpower and Heatran also has to Brightpowder me since the Sash one dies to BP the next turn). Shaking my head, I do the only thing I can and BP.
Scizor uses Bullet Punch, miss/Moltres uses Overheat, hits, SpA drop, Scizor faints
Oh. I kind of expected that, to be honest...call it Murphy's Law, call it an AI that is extremely unlikely to be "fair" after thousands and thousands of battles played by observant and unpessimistic Battle Tower/Frontier enthusiasts, even go so far as to call it a "guarantee" that there was no way the AI was letting me get a streak of 500 if it could do anything about it, which, against this team, it literally sometimes cannot even if it CHes every single turn if one of the remaining pokes doesn't have Brightpowder or Focus Band. I simply call it retarded.
I'm not dead yet, though, as Latios is about to wake up, and perhaps the Moltres won't use U-turn.
Latios wakes up, uses Rest/Moltres uses Fire Blast, misses
Okay then I guess...now you miss. This is a ray of hope, since it might not want to use U-turn for some reason. Sky Attack is stronger, anyway...
Latios is asleep/Moltres started to glow!
Haha what? The hope grows...I run the calc deliberately, and find that Sky Attack not only won't kill if it hits, but does 73-86%, which, coupled with the chance Sky Attack misses, is a 71.875% chance Latios will get a Sub up the next turn...
Latios is asleep/Moltres used Sky Attack! It's a critical hit! Latios fainted!
...or a 0% chance I win because of the CH chance.
Okay, so let's recap:
- 3.571429% (2-in-56) chance of facing a non-Leftovers Ice Beam Regice (Cresselia owns literally everything else)
- 31.640625% chance Regice is not FP at least once in first four consecutive turns against Latios
31.640625% chance Regice is not FP at least once in first four consecutive turns against Scizor...this one didnt matter in hindsight since i couldn't hit moltres lol so i can leave it out)- 76.5625% chance Regice does enough with Ice Beam #9 to prevent Latios from Subbing to block Ice Beam #10 and setting up even one CM for a very likely win
- 3% chance Scizor even has to face a Brightpowder or Lax Incense pokemon where two misses even poses trouble (it will kill literally everything else, the BP Heatran has to hit twice with Magma Storm at least and I'd probably Sub after the first BP miss if it hits with Magma Storm but whatever, the other BP pokes aren't as bad even if I get BPed twice cause they can't OHKO or even 2HKO Scizor and/or 13/154 about-to-wake-up Latios beats them anyway)
- 10% chance I get Brightpowdered by Moltres
- 90% chance it hits with Overheat
- 10% chance I get Brightpowdered by Moltres
- 90% chance it hits with Overheat
- 28.125% chance Moltres both hits with and does enough damage with Sky Attack to prevent a Crucial Sub
- 6.25% chance that this is a CH (these last two points are separate since I still have an outside shot of winning if it doesn't CH)
"Add" this all up and you have a 0.00000369557% chance of a loss. It was seriously that improbable that my team would lose this battle the way it unfolded, as all of those percentages matter. And actually, if Regice CHes Cresselia on any of the first three turns, I would have gone with Scizor first and started to Swords Dance because I know I can't stall out all of Regice's Ice Beams.
Meaning that, even when I SD twice naked with Scizor because I have to and kill Regice with Bullet Punch, and get Brightpowdered by Moltres, I will then know which Moltres it is and what to do, so when I send out my 100% HP Latios, I will Calm Mind since I know Sky Attack is coming, then Sub on the same CH Sky Attack, then Calm Mind again on a likely second Sky Attack (it will use its strongest attack, not U-turn, as U-turn wouldn't even kill the 81.25% Latios), then Sub, then realize I should probably attack to have enough HP to beat mystery third poke, miss my second time to Brightpowder as it glows again (because I'm still not in U-turn's kill range), then hit with DP and do 101.82% min for the kill, and have 81.25% HP to take on a Ledge I literally probably beat at +2 SpA/SpD even without a sub.
So the loss was actually less likely than that minuscule above number. If Regice CHes with any of its first three Ice Beams, I would actually have been MORE likely to win. It gets a little fuzzy with the chance Regice freezes Cress with the first IB and she doesn't thaw to Thunderwave it, and gets CHed at least once in the next two turns, AND Regice also freezes Scizor, because that sucks too. But even then, it will have to IB Scizor four times (without a CH) and have it not thaw, meaning Latios can still Sub on the last three Ice Beams and CM like twice before Subbing on a Struggle that won't break its Sub. Then kill Regice, and have room to still miss Moltres once as it uses Sky Attack (it still probably wont U-turn), miss again as the Sub breaks with the same CH, then Sub again as Moltres does whatever. "I probably won't get Brightpowdered three times" and I'll have a +2 Latios with kinda low HP but "a chance" to kill the last poke. Let's just say that the ~82% chance Regice doesn't CH with the first three Ice Beams can be bumped to 90% to account for the chance it freezes Scizor or freezes Cress with the very first IB.
So, for some numbers, 1 in 280,000 people get struck by lightning in a year, which is a 0.000357% chance. 90% of 0.00000369557 is 0.00000332603%. Therefore,
the way I lost this battle was literally 100 times less likely than me being struck by lightning in a year (107.335 times to be "exact").
Ok lol, for some perspective, this battle happened over a week ago—I have not been angrily typing and calculating all this stuff for like 12 hours straight, I've instead typed very slowly a few minutes here and there, so as not to completely justify a further waste of time. and no, i dont need quite that much luck to go against me to lose even with my CLS team. i did need that much luck to go against me to lose that particular battle, though, as ive clearly laid out.
so basically i feel cheated to hell and that there is no longer any reason to have mercy on the Platinum AI by not using my best team since "fun" is relative. this loss can either teach me that the bt is inherently a stupid luck-based game i shouldn't waste time on or that because of that fact I should only use the teams which best reduce that luck because "fun" is relative!
lol "either". i'll opt to listen to the latter of course, though it's not a waste of time to play in my car
99.9% of my anger is because this cut my streak at 499 and not 500, i'd gladly say "lol what the fuck ever bye forever pearl" if i'd lost at 501. "good luck" to anyone who wants to take a crack at 500 in pearl
i mean an hour or so later after it happened i didn't feel nearly as bad and realize that this would be like tiger woods really venting that he missed a final-round 59 in a major because his 35-foot putt barely grazed some other player's ball mark on the way to the hole and missed like an inch because of that, but still.
i guess peterko and i are whiners.
http://img41.imageshack.us/i/picture072u.jpg/
"lol 499"
