Pokemon Scarlet & Violet - 18th Nov 2022! **OFFICIAL INFO ONLY**

AquaticPanic

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the gutting of Toxic distribution and the first ever direct stat nerf in Aegislash
This also has me wondering if we're gonna see any SM-esque buff to old mons. It was really fun seeing that Sun and Moon buffed a bunch of old mons' stats and in some cases even gave them better abilities (Biggest standout probably being Pelipper). Stuff like Cryogonal, Dodrio and Electrode getting direct stat buffs, the new weather gang, Ariados and Heatmor very randomly getting new signature moves, and Masquerain and Parasect getting counterparts in Araquanid and Shiinotic.

I know that Gen 8 kind of lacked this but at this point we are all aware of the fact its dev cycle was kind of a mess. So it leaves me hoping that there's a chance SV might retroactively buff some weaker Pokémon like SM did. Between this and the fact traditional crossgen evos are 100% back, Gen 9 has me very hopeful that some old weaker mons might finally get to see the lightof day in one way or another.
 
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I know that Gen 8 kind of lacked this but at this point we are all aware of the fact its dev cycle was kind of a mess. So it leaves me hoping that there's a chance SV might retroactively buff some weaker Pokémon like SM did
well SwSh did do a stat nerf (Aegislash went down 10 stats :P ) but they did some indirect buffs by adding extra effects to certain abilities.
Notably they were trying to nerf Intimidate without nerfing Intimidate, so a bunch of abilities now make you immune to it, which did bump up the viability of certain mons (Entei iirc became viable just off it for one).
Many mons got strong moveset additions despite dexit too, notably the increased distribution of some now-TR attacks.

I wouldn't say SwSh didn't buff old mons, several did get buffed but indirectly (by the addition of new moves or mechanic change).

It's very possible SV also sees similar changes: I think VGC players expecially are still hoping Ally Switch gets nuked and Incineroar gets figuratively set on fire :>
 

Codraroll

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As it so often does, my mind wandered to Pokédex archetypes last night. Not just the usual part about there always being a regional bird, bug, rodent, pseudo-legendary and so on, but also the relatively even distribution of types in each regional Pokédex. It led me down, uh, quite a rabbit hole.

Since the number of Pokédex slots in a new generation is quite limited, each type is usually only seen with a small handful of Pokémon every generation. In addition to the usual archetypes, there's typically one two-stage family of each type (with some internal overlap), which already gives a sufficient number to fill around 70 Pokédex slots.

Game Freak's tendency to do stuff the same way over and over again thus means we can draw some conjectures about Gen IX even after seeing only eight Pokémon, because we know which "puzzle pieces" they correspond to, as it were. Or rather, it's Sudoku. We know what pieces tend to be included, but not where they fit. But we have a reasonable grasp of the rules, enough to make some educated guesses:

Most notably, there's the large representation of Normal-types we've already seen. Two Pokémon from different families. If we assume that the usual Pokédex archetypes are in place, there should be a two-stage Normal-type rodent, a two-stage "cutesy" Normal-type, and a single-stage (but possibly dual-typed) Normal type somewhere in the 'dex. Normal may also be found as a secondary type of another evolutionary family somewhere (think along the lines of Helioptile or Stufful).

I think Lechonk might be the "cutesy" Normal-type of the generation; the equivalent to Wooloo or Minccinio or Litleo or the "regional cats" of early generations. It may, however, fill the rodent role instead. Smoliv's family is probably the "other" representation of Normal. We're thus short one stand-alone Normal-type and/or one rodent. I don't think we can expect more Normal-types than that this generation, if it's anything like the previous ones. Maybe for a regional form. The regional bird is still up in the air, pun intended. It might start out as pure Flying following the Rookidee precedent, or do like Fletchling and start out Normal/Flying before changing type, or do like Pikipek and stay Normal/Flying. Either way, I think we have most of the Gen IX Normal-types already accounted for.

Likewise, Grass tends to be represented by a starter family and (usually) 2-3 additional families per generation, plus an assortment of legendary representation. We've seen Sprigatito and Smoliv, so I guess there is at least one more two-stage family of Grass-types waiting for us, possibly a bit more than that.

Another thing I like to think about is three-stage evolution families. Over in the OI Discord, we summed up the three-stage families of the previous three generations:

In Gen VI, there are three-stage evolution families representing the following types:

Grass 1x (Chespin)
Fire 2x (Fennekin, Fletchling)
Water 1x (Froakie)
Fighting 1x (Chesnaught)
Psychic 1x (Delphox)
Dark 1x (Greninja)
Bug 1x (Scatterbug)
Flying 2x (Talonflame, Vivillon)
Normal 1x (Fletchling)
Fairy 1x (Flabébé)
Steel 1x (Honedge)
Ghost 1x (Honedge)
Dragon 1x (Goomy)

Missing: Poison, Electric, Rock, Ground, Ice.


Gen VII:

Grass 2x (Rowlet, Bounsweet)
Fire 1x (Litten)
Water 1x (Popplio)
Bug 1x (Grubbin)
Flying 2x (Rowlet, Pikipek)
Dark 1x (Incineroar)
Fairy 1x (Primarina)
Ghost 2x (Decidueye, Lunala)
Normal 1x (Pikipek)
Electric 2x (Vikavolt, Geodude-A)
Dragon 1x (Jangmo-o)
Fighting 1x (Jangmo-o)
Steel 1x (Solgaleo)
Psychic 2x (Solgaleo, Lunala)
Rock 1x (Geodude-A)

Missing: Poison, Ground, Ice.


Gen VIII:

Grass 1x (Grookey)
Fire 2x (Scorbunny, Rolycoly)
Water 1x (Sobble)
Flying 1x (Rookidee)
Steel 1x (Corviknight)
Bug 1x (Blipbug)
Psychic 3x (Orbeetle, Hatenna, Mr. Mime-G)
Rock 1x (Rolycoly)
Fairy 2x (Hatenna, Impidimp)
Dark 2x (Impidimp, Zigzagoon-G)
Dragon 1x (Dreepy)
Ghost 1x (Dreepy)
Normal 1x (Zigzagoon-G)
Ice 1x (Mr. Mime-G)

Missing: Electric, Ground, Poison, Fighting.


And for the sake of completion, Hisui:

Grass 1x (Decidueye-H)
Fire 1x (Typhlosion-H)
Water 1x (Samurott-H)
Fighting 1x (Decidueye-H)
Ghost 1x (Typhlosion-H)
Dark 1x (Samurott-H)
Normal 1x (Ursaluna)
Ground 1x (Ursaluna)
Dragon 1x (Sliggoo-H)
Steel 1x (Sliggoo-H)

Missing: Electric, Flying, Bug, Fairy, Psychic, Rock, Ice, Poison.


As we can see, when all is said and done, there tends to be quite good type representation in three-stage families each generation (even Hisui managed well, considering it only introduced six new Pokémon that belong to five different three-stage families), and very little overlap. They seem somewhat reluctant to use the same type twice for three-stage Pokémon. This makes it a reasonable assumption that the secondary types of starters will not overlap with other three-stage evolutions.

In other words, don't expect starters to be Bug, Flying, or Dragon, as those are covered by other archetypes. Hot guesses at the moment of the starters' secondary typings are Dark, Ghost, and Fighting, making all three types unlikely to be used for the pseudo-legendary, and by extension for the regional bird or bug. Likewise, don't expect (but also, don't entirely discount the possibility of) these archetypes to have Grass, Fire, or Water as their secondary typing.

Likewise, pseudo-legendaries rarely repeat types (other than Dragon), but they choose them from a small pool. Game Freak is fond of using the "man-made" types as secondary types among their most powerful Pokémon: Fighting, Steel, Psychic, Dark, Fairy, Dragon, and Ghost. The reasons why are enough for a whole other rant, but for now, let's observe that most of these have already been used on pseudo-legendaries since Gen V. In fact, when counting Goodra-H, the only remaining ones are Psychic and Fairy. I think Dragon/Psychic or Dragon/Fairy are quite solid guesses for the pseudo-legendary this generation. We can do similar observations for the regional bird and bug. Flying and Bug are given, respectively, and the secondary typings are unlikely to overlap with other three-stage Pokémon of this generation or with regional birds or bugs from previous generations.

So as we stray deeper into the Sudoku logic, we can begin to feel Orange Islands Rule #2 start to press against us, as we cross the crackpot threshold. Be aware that things get highly speculative from here on:

Applying all the guesses above, we can consider the following types to be accounted for:

Grass (Sprigatito)
Dark (Sprigatito-3)
Fire (Fuecoco)
Ghost (Fuecoco-3)
Water (Quaxly)
Fighting (Quaxly-3)
Flying (regional bird)
Normal (regional bird first stage)
Bug (regional bug)
Dragon (pseudo-legendary)
Psychic or Fairy (pseudo-legendary)

Leaving Ground, Rock, Ice, Poison, Electric, and Steel, plus either Psychic or Fairy.

I think it is a fairly reasonable bet that the secondary types of the regional bird and bug are found among the list at the bottom - minus those that have been used by the regional birds and bugs in recent generations, of course.

Two more rules of thumb can be mentioned, but they are the sort of rules that may be broken at a moment's notice:

1. Game Freak still tries to compensate for making too many three-stage Poison-types in Gen I (there hasn't been one of those since Scolipede, and it and Roserade are the only three-stage Poison-types to have their families designed after Gen I).
2. Early-route Pokémon are never Ice-type.

Which leaves the following observations:

Possible combinations for the regional bird: Flying/Ground, Flying/Rock, Flying/Electric, Flying/Psychic, or Flying/Fairy.
Possible combinations for the regional bug: Bug/Ground, Bug/Rock, Bug/Steel, or Bug/Fairy.

Under-represented types among three-stage Pokémon in recent generations: Poison, Electric, Ground, Ice.
Wild card: only starter type not to have been in a non-starter three-stage family since Gen V: Water.

To avoid falling entirely into speculation territory I will keep my personal guesses to myself. But I think it is somewhat reasonable to narrow the probability space down this much, using only what we have observed so far. Of course, the logic is far from watertight, because we know Game Freak like to break their own rules, and type overlap isn't unthinkable (it actually happens every generation), so this may all be very wrong. Still, though, it makes a certain amount of sense too, or what?
 
Imagine Lechonk gaining a secondary flying type and actually being the regional bird. It could be a play on the phrase 'when pigs fly'. Very unlikely, but it would be hilarious.

Anyway, I think the open world aspect of the game might change how Pokemon of specific types become available. In most games, types like ice and dragon are considered 'late-game' types. In SV, you should be able to head to the snowy area or the dragon tower or whatever pretty early on though, which means that you should be able to catch Pokemon with these 'late-game' types early on as well. I wonder how that is going to affect balancing of stats. Are we going to get some relatively weak dragon and steel types for a change? Will Pokemon that are typically only useful early on, like Butterfree or the early rodents, be completely overshadowed from the start? It's all pretty unpredictable. If any Pokemon game is going to deviate from the archetype structure, it's SV, I think.
 
Imagine Lechonk gaining a secondary flying type and actually being the regional bird. It could be a play on the phrase 'when pigs fly'. Very unlikely, but it would be hilarious.

Anyway, I think the open world aspect of the game might change how Pokemon of specific types become available. In most games, types like ice and dragon are considered 'late-game' types. In SV, you should be able to head to the snowy area or the dragon tower or whatever pretty early on though, which means that you should be able to catch Pokemon with these 'late-game' types early on as well. I wonder how that is going to affect balancing of stats. Are we going to get some relatively weak dragon and steel types for a change? Will Pokemon that are typically only useful early on, like Butterfree or the early rodents, be completely overshadowed from the start? It's all pretty unpredictable. If any Pokemon game is going to deviate from the archetype structure, it's SV, I think.
I think it's dependent on how truly "open" it is.

Like are there soft locks on where you can go (ie: water blockages, or needing a key item, or is ita separate "map" from the rest of what you can access)? What about levels, you can go anywhere but should yo utho. Can you access a little bit of everything but only a segment at a time (ie pretend there's 3 tiers to each environment and you can go flatlands, midlands, mountain tops throughout the game. or......something.) etc etc

I bet we're stuck in a "central" early area for a whilewhere they dump al lthe usual early game fodder before opening up more, at least.


Alternatively they took wild area to heart despite all their other experiments and you just run into 80% of the pokedex 2 hours into the game, I suppose.
 

NealIRC

Banned deucer.
Man I am so hyped for new Grass type combos since the start of Gen 7. I been waiting for.

Grass/Fire
Grass/Water
Grass/Electric
Grass/Rock

But Gen 7 just gave us Grass/Fairy and more pure Grass, and 1 Grass/Steel UB.

Gen 8 just gave us more pure Grass and Grass/Dragon.

This is as of the end of Gen 8, on how unevenly distributed the Grass types were:


Grass: ............... 43 [50.5%] (49.4%)
Grass/Poison: 14
Grass/Flying: .. 6 (7)
Grass/Fairy: .... 5
Grass/Dark: .... 3
Grass/Fighting: 3
Grass/Steel: .... 3
Grass/Dragon: 2 (3)
Grass/Psychic: 2
Grass/Ice: ....... 2
Grass/Ground: 1
Grass/Ghost: .. 1
Grass/Electric: 0
Grass/Water: . 0
Grass/Fire: ..... 0
Grass/Rock: .... 0
Grass/Bug: ..... 0
Grass/Normal: 0
( ) = Skymin and Alolan Exeggutor

But now, we have our 1st Grass/Normal type Smoliv. But the rumor is it may be a female-only that has evolution. Fingers crossed for another new 1, that won't be Grass/Bug lol.

Edit: and the beauty of Grass/Fire Grass/Water Grass/Electric and Grass/Rock is none of them have a 4x weakness... stuff we're real lacking in.
 
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Grass/Electric: 0
Grass/Water: . 0
Grass/Fire: ..... 0
Grass/Rock: .... 0
Grass/Bug: ..... 0
Grass/Normal: 0

But now, we have our 1st Grass/Normal type Smoliv. But the rumor is it may be a female-only that has evolution.
:ss/Rotom-Mow:
:ss/Ludicolo:
:ss/Cradily:
:ss/Parasect:
:ss/Sawsbuck:

We already have all of those except Grass/Fire, which I hope will finally exist this gen, but I’d love to see more of them.

As for Grass/Ghost, there are both the Trevenant line and the Gourgeist line.
 
I think it's dependent on how truly "open" it is.

Like are there soft locks on where you can go (ie: water blockages, or needing a key item, or is ita separate "map" from the rest of what you can access)? What about levels, you can go anywhere but should yo utho. Can you access a little bit of everything but only a segment at a time (ie pretend there's 3 tiers to each environment and you can go flatlands, midlands, mountain tops throughout the game. or......something.) etc etc

I bet we're stuck in a "central" early area for a whilewhere they dump al lthe usual early game fodder before opening up more, at least.


Alternatively they took wild area to heart despite all their other experiments and you just run into 80% of the pokedex 2 hours into the game, I suppose.
"Open World" is a fairly broad term.

Minecraft: 100% open, 100% not gonna happen. Everything below this can have a closed, linear tutorial area and locked-off lategame dungeons, but a true open world is truly open. Nope.
Elder Scrolls/Breath of the Wild: Go literally anywhere, there's questlines etc that may require a certain order and possibly leveled enemies to discourage certain pathing but every location is open. Doubtful, this is a LOT of work to make/fill up/balance/playtest. There's a reason Bethesda is the name in this genre, no one else is stupid enough to try it.
Dragon Age: Origins/Star Wars: KotOR: All locations are open except the endgame stuff, but individual locations are fairly linear. Possible, and a lot more reasonable. If this was a non-Pokemon game advertising Open World, this would be my default assumption.
Metroidvania/other Zelda games/Legends: Arceus: Each area is broad and open, but you start with ~1 area open and steadily unlock more. Sometimes this unlocking is supposed to be linear, other games you basically get to choose where you go on repeat playthroughs. What I expect them to do.
Fake open world: There's a big massive area, but if you try to explore it at all you quickly run into artificial walls. Every playthrough is roughly the same even when they say it's open world. Think the Wild Area from SwSh as a full game, or if Mount Coronet was billed as open-world. Not gonna call anything specific out, but I hope they don't do this.

The problem with Open World for Pokemon is the levelling system. And based on what we've seen, they're keeping levels. A 5-level advantage is a big deal in these games, so I see a few options(which are not mutually exclusive):
1: Leveled oppts: Everything you face, from rando trainers to wilds to gym leaders to Evil Team Minions all have a mon level of 5*player badge count*trainer class variable. This is blatantly artificial and defeats any sense of progression, so I hope they don't do it.
2: Linear world, open areas: This is half of what Legends Arceus did, and what I expect. Yes, it's technically 'open world', but you will hit the towns in the expected order in every playthrough, with a few Gen I style routing decisions. Enemies are leveled roughly as they are in any pokemon game, with maybe a few exceptions for specific fights which check your progression.
3: Get rid of random fights. You face gym leaders, your rival, and evil team bosses. Everything else is either a multiplayer oppt or is hand-waved as an (implied) cutscene curbstomp. Your team levels through some means other than battles, and the handful of fights therefore make much more sense to be matched to you in power.
4: Change the backend so levels matter far less. L:A did this. I doubt they'll do it, but nothing we've seen so far proves otherwise.
5: Johto, turned to 11. Yes, you can go anywhere in any order past the tutorial, but 80% of the remaining game occupies the same 15-level range. Hopefully they've learned from their mistakes and don't do this, or at least do it better than GSCHGSS.

If nothing else, I'm certain that Player House-Professor-Gym 1 and Gym 8-Victory Road-E4 will be completely linear, and the same gyms and opponent levels in every playthrough.
 
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NealIRC

Banned deucer.
:ss/Rotom-Mow:
:ss/Ludicolo:
:ss/Cradily:
:ss/Parasect:
:ss/Sawsbuck:

We already have all of those except Grass/Fire, which I hope will finally exist this gen, but I’d love to see more of them.
I could never consider Ludicolo a Grass/Water, as it is 1st and foremost an animal, duck-like, or Parasect as Grass/Bug, as it is 1st and foremost an insect.
As for Grass/Ghost, there are both the Trevenant line and the Gourgeist line.
Trevenant and Gourgeist I could definitely consider to be Grass/Ghost as they are 1st and foremost a plant.

The difference between Grass/Fire and Fire/Grass to me - is if they are 1st and foremost a plant that can shoot fire, or something else like animal-like that can shoot fire and be leafy/planty.

Basic convo for a basic discussion.
 
The joke is that nealirc is looking at Grass/X type combos specifically, and not X/Type combos which is silly but it does inexplicably exist when we have things like Diggersby (Normal/Ground) and Ursaluna (Ground/Normal) or Dragonite (Dragon/Flying) & Noivern (Flying/Dragon)

And so there's "one" Grass/Ghost type (Decidueye) and not 5 of them because the others are all Ghost/Grass.

It....kind of....seems to play into their design sense (Smolive is a lot more primarily grassy than Sawsbuck) but also not really (Crammorant could have been Water/Flying as opposed to Flying/Water and nothing would really change, per say)
 
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The joke is that nealirc is looking at Grass/X type combos specifically, and not X/Type combos which is silly but it does inexplicably exist when we have things like Diggersby (Normal/Ground) and Ursaluna (Ground/Normal) or Dragonite (Dragon/Flying) & Noivern (Flying/Dragon)

And so there's "one" Grass/Ghost type (Decidueye) and not 5 of them because the others are all Ghost/Grass.

It....kind of....seems to play into their design sense (Smolive is a lot more primarily grassy than Sawsbuck) but also not really (Crammorant could have been Water/Flying as opposed to Flying/Water and nothing would really change, per say)
Reminds me that, prior to Gen VI, all dual-typed normal Pokemon had Normal as their primary type and all dual-typed flying Pokemon had Flying as their secondary type. I feel the latter at the very least was partially intentional, but it's hard to say about former due to the vast majority of dual-typed normal Pokemon having Flying as their secondary type.

I know the differences in primary/secondary type serve no mechinical purpose, but I wonder if there was some intentional meaning in them or if it was just arbitrary. IIRC the only example in Gen I of Pokemon with the same type combination having a different order were Onix and the Geodude line being Rock/Ground but the Rhyhorn line being Ground/Rock. It could've been an intentional design choice, or it could be as simple as them added the Rock type to Rhyhorn/don latter in development
 
Reminds me that, prior to Gen VI, all dual-typed normal Pokemon had Normal as their primary type and all dual-typed flying Pokemon had Flying as their secondary type. I feel the latter at the very least was partially intentional, but it's hard to say about former due to the vast majority of dual-typed normal Pokemon having Flying as their secondary type.

I know the differences in primary/secondary type serve no mechinical purpose, but I wonder if there was some intentional meaning in them or if it was just arbitrary. IIRC the only example in Gen I of Pokemon with the same type combination having a different order were Onix and the Geodude line being Rock/Ground but the Rhyhorn line being Ground/Rock. It could've been an intentional design choice, or it could be as simple as them added the Rock type to Rhyhorn/don latter in development
I think some of it is intentional. Like I said before Sawsbuck is a decent look at Normal/Grass. Its a mostly normal deer, but it's got some grassy bits. You can split hairs but yea hsure okay. Normal/Grass
Smolive is definitely more grass in design. So being primarily grass is fine. Now its...not very normal, either which is...off; usually I can look at something like Litleo or Heliolisk or Drampa and go yeah you're a little normal. You've got some Normal in you. Smolive we'll need to see what happesn when it evolves??

Diggersby is mostly a normal rabbit, but a little ground-y. Ursaluna is defined by controlling and using peat, so it gets to be Ground primarily, iguess?

With the Flying primary types well, I guess you can kind of say that maybe Noibat/vern puts the flight before the dragon? I dunno.
With the birds, though...I think they might actually be emphasizing Flying as bird, if it's primary, in Gen 8. There was already the brow raising decision to have Rookidee & Corvisquire be pure flying. But both Corvisquire & Crammorant are Flying first, subtype second. The only thing I can think of is they now want something that is "mostly a bird" be primarily Flying whereas something like Enamorus will still get Flying as secondary. Now. 8 generations into the series. And without updating all the old birds.

So if we want to keep trying to apply some logic to this, going with your Rhyhorn example it could be as simple as Geodude is literally a rock and Onix is literally made of Rocks, so it's Rock/Ground. But Rhyhorn is only rocky in passing, in comparison. So it's Ground/Rock.

I mean none of this is perfect at all, some of it probably is just arbitrary, but there's just enough there that some of it might be intentional.
 
I mean, if we wanna be pedantic Parasect is a parasitic mushroom taking over its host insect (with all those creepy dex entries) so if someone told me it was Grass/Bug I would've believed it. Although my brother would say fungi are totally different from plants, but I guess it's established Game Freak doesn't care about that.

Speaking of which, we've had fungi Pokémon every odd generation. Do you guys think we'll get one come SV or will GF break its "tradition"?
 
Speaking of which, we've had fungi Pokémon every odd generation. Do you guys think we'll get one come SV or will GF break its "tradition"?
That you (correctly) felt the need to put "tradition" in quotes means there's not really much of a point in discussing if a new mushroom is or isn't coming. I don't think it's something Game Freak actually gives a shit about or gives any consideration toward when designing new Pokemon. It's just a pattern they happen to have stumbled into.
 

AquaticPanic

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I mean, if we wanna be pedantic Parasect is a parasitic mushroom taking over its host insect (with all those creepy dex entries) so if someone told me it was Grass/Bug I would've believed it. Although my brother would say fungi are totally different from plants, but I guess it's established Game Freak doesn't care about that.

Speaking of which, we've had fungi Pokémon every odd generation. Do you guys think we'll get one come SV or will GF break its "tradition"?
Eh to be honest I think one of the biggest faults of the Pokémon fandom is having a lot of faith in "patterns" that aren't really there. People were expecting a new Eeveelution in SwSh pretty much exclusively because it was an even numbered gen, this I feel is the same case for expecting a new mushroom mon just because its an odd numbered gen.

I think that from a game designer's perspective, it'd be pretty pointless to write yourself into a corner where you have to fill self-imposed patterns every gen. putting yourself in a situation where you're creating a mon not because you had an interesting concept for it, but just because you have to fill in that quota. I feel the only real case of this we have in the franchise are the Pikachu clones, who aren't always fan-favourites and some think come across as repetitive.

It's why I kinda don't realy buy the theories that go "X pokémon exists solely because of Y pattern/to hint at Z thing of the next gen!". I see theories left and right about how "Gen 7 had wolves with multiple forms and the Gen 8 legendaries are wolves!" or "Hoopa uses Portals and Gen 7 is about portals!" and I just really can't buy that TPC would willingly force themselves to create multiple Pokémon every gen solely for the sake of filling out a needless pattern or really farfecth'd "foreshadowing"
 
Yea I generally agree with you but, at the same time, there wouldn't have been any "pattern" per se had they not given us Shiinotic. Not saying it's not an interesting concept in itself, simply that when put alongside the others it looks kinda forced. The reminder that it exists is the reason I brought it up in the first place, lol.
 

NealIRC

Banned deucer.
The joke is that nealirc is looking at Grass/X type combos specifically, and not X/Type combos which is silly but it does inexplicably exist when we have things like Diggersby (Normal/Ground) and Ursaluna (Ground/Normal) or Dragonite (Dragon/Flying) & Noivern (Flying/Dragon)

And so there's "one" Grass/Ghost type (Decidueye) and not 5 of them because the others are all Ghost/Grass.

It....kind of....seems to play into their design sense (Smolive is a lot more primarily grassy than Sawsbuck) but also not really (Crammorant could have been Water/Flying as opposed to Flying/Water and nothing would really change, per say)
I wonder if I'm alone at this but I got into collecting cards a bit before playing the Gen 1 games. So I associated pokemon by card color and therefore having a primary element 1st.

A Grass/Water to me should be a plant, preferably underwater-living or so. Water/Grass can be a plant-like animal.
 
It's why I kinda don't realy buy the theories that go "X pokémon exists solely because of Y pattern/to hint at Z thing of the next gen!". I see theories left and right about how "Gen 7 had wolves with multiple forms and the Gen 8 legendaries are wolves!" or "Hoopa uses Portals and Gen 7 is about portals!" and I just really can't buy that TPC would willingly force themselves to create multiple Pokémon every gen solely for the sake of filling out a needless pattern or really farfecth'd "foreshadowing"
I only heard about this "pattern" recently and it drives me nuts, especially since the new legends + toxtricity look like they fit the "pattern". I concur with your points, and I would summarize my take as "GF is going to focus on the current games, they are not going to not make entire games or mons to hint at the next game."

If the pattern is not simply a complete coincidence, then I would think it's vastly more likely that the legends are just iterations on concepts that didn't make the cut the previous gen, not deliberate easter eggs to hint at the next gen.
 
The teaser theory sounds bullshit for a similar reason horoscopes are bullshit. There are so many ideas in a given generation that it's extremely likely for the legendaries of the next generation to have something in common with something in the previous gen purely by accident.

Like, really look at what the supposed teasers are. Hoopa is a mythical Pokemon, and it supposedly hints toward an important plotpoint in Gen 7. Lycanroc is just a wolf with marketing, and it supposedly hints toward the Gen 8 legendaries physically being wolves. You'd think if this was being done deliberately, there'd be some consistency not only in what thing is doing the hinting, but also what part of the next game is being hinted at. That they have almost nothing in common besides existing reeks of it all being a coincidence that some people read way too far into.
 
Man, this post is gigantic. I went kinda nuts writing this, pardon the word vomit. There's probably something I forgot to expand on fully because I was jumping around so much, pardon weird cliffhangers I'll elaborate on them if needed.

Anyway, I want to look at Pokemon I think won't be in SV's dex but probably will be in SV.

Looking at SWSH 1.0's Inaccessible Pokemon to Parse Trends for SV's Pokemon Inclusions

I was thinking about the initial crop of ~430 Pokemon we got when Sword and Shield first came out. Specifically, I wanted to pay attention to the Pokemon outside the Galar Dex, Pokemon you either couldn't interact with or were very likely not to interact with before Pokemon Home's launch. That's a pretty interesting crop of Pokemon! They're Pokemon so important, they felt the need to put them in the game even if most of the casual playerbase won't ever interact with them! That's a pretty good indication there are some reasons why these Pokemon are getting extra attention, and those philosophies might very well carry over to SV. Let's take a look at that and see if there are any trends we can gauge!

Sword and Shield went out of their way to add these Pokemon to the roster despite being completely inaccessible without transfers:

>>Pokemon Outside the Galar Dex in SWSH 1.0<<
:Bulbasaur:Bulbasaur Family
:Squirtle:Squirtle Family
:Mewtwo: Mewtwo
:Mew: Mew*
:Celebi: Celebi
:Jirachi: Jirachi
:Cobalion::Terrakion::Virizion: The Swords of Justice Trio
:Reshiram:Reshiram
:Zekrom:Zekrom
:Kyurem:Kyurem
:Keldeo: Keldeo
:rowlet::litten::popplio:The Alolan Starter Families
:Solgaleo::Lunala:Cosmog Family
:Necrozma:Necrozma
:Marshadow:Marshadow
:Zeraora:Zeraora
:Meltan:Meltan Family


*Mew is still accessible in base SWSH without Home through the Pokeball Controller but more on that later

There are a few trends in here I think stand out. In particular, I think most of these inclusions revolve around one central premise:

Welcome Returning Players Back, Keep Them Invested, Make Hardcore fans.

Not alienating people from game to game is a challenge. Doing that while also finally cutting the dex size is a challenge. If you are on Smogon reading this, you are a very entrenched player who'll probably feel a bit of disappointment with a smaller Pokemon roster, but will still be pretty deeply attached to the franchise.

What about someone fairly newer to the franchise? What if they picked up Sun and Moon or LGPE and want to play the new game? Having some of the most precious Pokemon they've spent the most time with in older adventures feels important in keeping them invested. I felt some major whiplash when most of my favorites from Gen 1 and 2 weren't in Gen 3. I spend more time playing Silver than Sapphire in 2003, and my interest in the series didn't really recover until Bayleef and the Johto pokemon I loved came back in Coliseum. Cushioning that blow is hard, but an excellent way to soften it is keeping your dearest partners, or what's likely to be most players' dearest partners, around for the next ride.

Obviously, what Pokemon we bond to is a bit scattershot and can depend on so many factors and individual experiences. That said, there are a few predictable features on the road with standout playthrough-defining Pokemon. Let's look at these inclusions and distill these into a few principles to use to make a list of likely returning Pokemon!

1) Keep your first buddy: Starters! I think most every kid holds their starter dear. In the older games, it's your level 70 beatstick while you drag around a weird ensemble of under leveled pokemon. In 2019, I had kids at our pokemon league that felt bad taking their starters off of their pvp teams for casual battles. Kids get pretty close with their cool little dude and being able to use it, or NOT being able to use it, feels like a deciding factor in keeping some folks on board. I feel this is pretty solid grounds for explaining why the Alola starters are back at DLC 0.

Bulbasaur and Squirtle are a little rockier. While they're starters from the most recent pokemon game at the time of SWSH, they're not actually, you know, the starters in the most recent Pokemon game. I'll go into them just a bit later.

2) Keep your reward for a playthrough well done: Continuing on with that theme of making players who played the last game feel like there's solid carryover even in the face of roster cuts, keeping the cover legendaries in is a great move. You played through Sun or Moon and got your big legendary. You played through USUM and got your Necrozma. You trekked through Cerulean cave and caught a Mewtwo. Now you get to keep it and use it even more in the next game!

3) Keep your special mythical rewards: Mythical Pokemon are money. Owning one's not required for dex purposes and it's almost always because they've got a slight pay-to-win taintedness to them. Making your customer feel like they wasted money on a movie ticket or a controller or a game release is big feel bad, so preserving that is important. Showing them that enjoying a Pokemon experience rewards them with a cool gamepiece for years to come can have some serious positive impact.

Quick anecdote: I for one never bought LGPE. I probably would have never played it if it weren't for Meltan making me charge through it. If I didn't borrow the game from a friend, or if I were a whiny kid asking their parents, I probably might have bought LGPE at some point for the sake of Pokedex completion. Pokemon like this have draw. Including them is important. Hell, I know some folks who bought that stupid pokeball controller twice to get another mew in SWSH! If this is a trend they see in multiple consumers, these particular Pokemon are important inclusions!

A big chunk of these mythical Pokemon fit this bill. Mew got shilled by reggie at E3 a year prior and keeping that accessory alive for SWSH is a payday. Marshadow and Zerora put butts in seats in japan. Celebi is a much loser fit into the mold, especially given that Lugia and Ho-oh aren't in to be encapsulated in the "playthrough well done" part. That said, given it was the driving selling point behind the crystal vc release, I'm willing to include it here. Jirachi is... well, it's a bit of a loose fit for later.

The only notable emission from the list of Gen 7 mythicals here is Magearna, who existed as a pre-release hype pokemon akin to Manaphy or Zoroark. Honestly though, the fact Magearna is a permanent fixture of SM and USUM and isn't attached to any early adapter whatever or some incentive to buy a game without any other new Pokemon (Meltan) I feel is good enough reason not to bring it over initially.

Note that Jirachi and Keldeo don't fit under here at all. More on them later.

The above three I believe are really solid patterns you can grok from the DLC 0 inclusions in SWSH. The next two are on what I think are less stable grounds.

4) Completing cycles seems important: Remember the week-ish before the datamine where we saw the whole Pokdex and saw Charmander but no Bulbasaur and Squirtle? There was blood in the streets! Completing cycles is a pretty satisfying for a player to see in a game, and a pretty frustrating thing to see not put in a game. People love symmetry, it's like a major part of game design. A cycle of Pokemon like a starter trio or a legendary trio being left unfulfilled is a frustrating affair, especially when it's as shoved in the player's face as Charizard in SWSH.

With that said...

The Hisuian starters are a giant glowing neon sign that they don't feel bound to cycle completion. Sure, they make their own cycle, but you do have to admit it feels a bit weird to 2/3rds of a starter trio left out in the cold. It feels a little less weird because PLA is a smaller scope game than a normal Pokemon adventure, but I can still see them going either way on including the remaining six Pokemon families in SV. Because of this, I'll be breaking my thoughs of what's probably in SV in two with this force having power and no power.


5) Just do some extra stuff too I guess? - Okay, some of this I just can't distill into something tangible well. Jirachi and the Gen 5 legendaries being in the game is pretty weird. I don't know why they're there, and I can't think of any ongoing events that would tie them to being a priority to being in the game. All I can do is speculate as to maybe there being some scrapped ideas or ease of implementation that let them slip in. Maybe the whole "Wishing Piece" thing made them want to tie it into Jirachi? It seems plausible given the SWSH bonus in BDSP is a Jirachi. Maybe that crowned tundra footprint thing for the musketeers was planned for the base game? Maybe doing the legwork for the solarizers' inclusion made implementing kyruem easy? Hell, maybe even like, the way the solarizers were programmed in Gen 7 you need Kyurem things in the game too not to break it lol? Pokemon is on a massive pile of tech debt so I wouldn't be surprised one little fiddling upends a bunch of stuff after Spinda got shafted in BDSP. Or hell, maybe they were just nostalgic for gen 5 or something.

It's way too open here and all I can do is baselessly speculate! The takeaway here though is murky. I don't think anything can be planned around this well at all. I just might expect some weird inclusions like "huh why are the legendary dogs in this game?" once SV is released.


What can we take away from all this? Well, if we assume these principles are things Gamefreak wants to stick to to keep players on board, we can infer what I think is a pretty reasonable list of things we'll see in SV. Using these principles, I am pretty confident that SV will allow us to import the pokemon from previous games, even if they're no in the Pokedex:

>>Pokemon Likely To Be In SV Base on SWSH Inaccessible Pokemon Trends<<

More Moderate Reading: (Principles 1-3 Apply, No 4)

:Grookey::Scorbunny::Sobble:The Galar Starter Trio Familiies
:Turtwig::Chimchar::Piplup:The Sinnoh Starter Trio Families
:Rowlet::Cyndaquil::Oshawott:The Hisuian Starter Trio Families
:Zacian:Zacian
:Zamazenta:Zamazenta
:calyrex-shadow::calyrex-ice:Calyrex + Steeds
:Dialga:Dialga
:Palkia:Palkia
:Arceus:Arceus
:Zarude:Zarude
:Manaphy:Manaphy (and :Phione:)
:Darkrai:Darkrai
:Shaymin:Shaymin

More Generous Reading (Principles 1-4 Apply)
:Grookey::Dialga::Arceus: All Pokemon in prior list
:Chikorita::Totodile::Snivy::Tepig::Litten::Popplio:The remaining Johto, Unova, and Alola Starter Families
:eternatus:Eternatus
:Urshifu:Urshifu

:giratina: Giratina
:Mew: Mew
:Jirachi: Jirachi



Let's elaborate a bit:

Keep Your Starters - Gen 8 had a big heap of starters to deal with, what a mess! It gets even worse with cycle completion, but we'll get to that later. Still, given what they did with SWSH, I feel confident all our first partner pals from the newer switch games will be tagging along for SV adventures.

Keep Your Reward - With three games, there are a lot of rewards to go through. Zacian, Zamazenta, Dialga, and Palkia are all totally analogous to keeping Solgaleo, Lunala, and Mewtwo as rewards from the Gen 7 games. Calyrex I feel is also on this same level as a big bad restricted legendary and your reward for completing SWSH and the DLC. Arceus, despite being a mythic, also fits this bill given he was central to the latest installment.

Keep Your Mythics - We have a big crop of Mythics to run with for Gen 8. Zarude's our one lone new Mythic who gets to stick around an extra gen for selling tickets. Manaphy, Shaymin, and Darkrai were all featured prominently as promotional Pokemon and fit the same bill Meltan and Mew did in the previous generation.

Altogether, this makes for 22 Pokemon, which is well under the 33 SWSH added as mostly inaccessible prior to Home, leaving plenty of wiggle room for extra surprise inclusions like SWSH's Gen 5 legendary stuff.

There are a few glaring omissions here I think are also very likely to get in, but a bit too reliant on cycle completion or some other factor to pin it to the more certain list.

Giratina - This is like the most borderline Pokemon for nearly getting on the rock solid list, but I've got just a tiny bit of doubt thanks to Necrozma. Part of me feels that Necrozma is operating less as completing a trio and more just on acting as a "keeping your reward" sort of thing for USUM. Still, I think having Giratina on is close to a near lock, just not as close as Dialga and Palkia.
Eternatus - I guess Zacian, Zamazeta, and Eternatus are a trio of sorts, but boy, they feel the most disconnected out of any trio of cover legend - cover legend - extra legend we've had of the lot. Eternatus is also on the wings of that cycle completion going for Giratina, but it feels far more likely to be excluded with how disconnected it is from the cover legendaries. If only Pokemon Gun had released with it on the cover...
Urshifu - I had Urshifu on the first list initially, but I talked myself out of it. I feel as if rewarding / incentivizing purchase of the SWSH expansion is going to be a driving force behind these likely post dex inclusions in SV, but Urshifu don't have to do a ton for that. Adding Naganadel for example, a Pokemon that explicitly requires USUM and would be a nice reward for purchasing that game in SWSH, wasn't included in the base SWSH roster. I think we'll get a little nod towards the DLC purchase, but I think Calyrex being the big bad imposing legendary is more likely. Still, Urshifu was on the cover for the DLC and the DLC box set, so I can see it cropping up easy. On that note, I feel the weight of Urshifu and Calyrex are way, way higher than the other featured Pokemon in the expansions, so I feel they're the only ones in contentions for being nearly certain postdex locks.
Mew and Jirachi - Mew and Jirachi were featured as mythical rewards for having save data on your console. I feel they're also extremely likely, especially given the popularity of Mew, but feel they're just a tad less steady than the Gen 4 mythics who do the same thing and also rewarded early purchases.
The remaining starters - This one is... weird. Part of my feels like PLA shows they're okay with sectioning a little group like this out. Part of me feels the Venusaur-Blastoise thing in SWSH makes them very likely, especially given PLA was just a far smaller game. Adding six whole extra pokemon families seems like a fair bit of extra work, especially given so much of this is going six years without things like Serperior available, but the extra symmetry feels like it matters enough to spur them into including the lot.


That's just about it! For the record though, I don't want this to come off as like a trend that gamefreak *has* to follow. Sometimes I think online discussion gets a bit mired in trends that might like fit the mold of what a dev has done, but not something they're held to for future developments (the discourse about things that were already spirits in SSBU not being fighter contenders rubbed me poorly). I'm in agreeance with a lot of AquaticPanic's stance on patterns. I want this to be less "what if this is a pattern to be paid off in this new game!?" and more "These indicate some tangible forces that boost player satisfaction and drive sales probably are being thought about and are still likely on the table."


Finally, to be clear, I also think a lot more Pokemon are almost assuredly in the game too, but this post is ungodly long enough. I think basically every new Pokemon and form in PLA is a shoe-in to be in SV. I'm also almost certain eternal fan favorites like Eevee, Mewtwo, and the Kanto starters won't miss the game. Those discussions are for another day! This however I feel is way more solid grounds for discussion and analysis and I felt was worth posting in its current state. I'm just operating off of that tiny bit of content that was mostly inaccessible at the start of SWSH's lifespan to see if we can extrapolate anything. Excited to see how others view these sorts of trends.


also I willed charizard x and cosmog and galar slowbro's typing into existance so im VERY right and should not be questioned on my speculation abilities nyeh
 
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More Moderate Reading: (Principles 1-3 Apply, No 4)

:Grookey::Scorbunny::Sobble:The Galar Starter Trio Familiies
:Turtwig::Chimchar::Piplup:The Sinnoh Starter Trio Families
:Rowlet::Cyndaquil::Oshawott:The Hisuian Starter Trio Families
:Zacian:Zacian
:Zamazenta:Zamazenta
:calyrex-shadow::calyrex-ice:Calyrex + Steeds
:Dialga:Dialga
:Palkia:Palkia
:Arceus:Arceus
:Zarude:Zarude
:Manaphy:Manaphy (and :Phione:)
:Darkrai:Darkrai
:Shaymin:Shaymin
Great post sir, much better than usual senseless speculation I read around, but I would add one thing:
Assuming you got the idea right I would assume the genies will be also be in the game, amongst the "non interactables". For the same reason: one of the shiny new toys is Enamorous.
Remember how SwSh's 35 had the 4 Sword of Justice? I am not sure why they were there, I assume this was because they would be coming up later or were originally planning to do something else and it wasnt done, but either ways, they were indeed in the original 35. I can definitely see Tornadus, Thundurus, Landorus and Enamorous being either straight up present in the game, or present but unobtainable until home.

Tecnically, I do think every regional form / new pokemon introduced in Arceus will be for same reason, as well. We already got confirmation that Hisuian Zoroark is in, and I'd not be surprised if it'll get a dedicated shiny mystery gift (something something hisuian snow), though we do not know if it'll actually be catchable, or just "via transfer". But since I have a rough time seeing hisuian pokemon present in the wild, them being available as "transfer only" would make perfect sense, and Enamorous with her entourage would also fit this.
 

NealIRC

Banned deucer.
Btw I feel like Scarlet/Violet starters are the best starters we ever had, if you like the color red over orange.

Cuz most Gens have made the Fire type an orange color rather than red. Though some of them, like Torchic and Chimchar, do get a little redder when they fully evolve. Here's hoping Fuecoco's final evo does not get oranger.

I once did a poll after Gen 8, on should the 1st Grass/Fire pokemon, that is a plant, be green and red, or green and orange? Green and orange got the most votes, of course I still think more people like the color red than orange but it could be they didn't like the person who made the poll so.

-

And for an arbitrary wishlist, I hope Lampent gets a branched evo. To a chandelier that is redder, pure Fire, and with the Levitate ability. My issue with Chandelure is that it is a balloon-chandelier, so would want a chandelier that's more western.

You could say that is my #1 hope for another branched evo.

My #1 for another regional variant would probably be Exeggutor again, but as Grass/Ghost, and where the coconut heads have faces of skulls on them.

My #1 for a stat boost are Golurk, though Wailord can use it too. Pyukumuku takes hits better than a Wailord does. So a 1-foot cucumber takes hits better than a 47 foot whale. So Golurk and Wailord can both get a Def and SpD boost.
 

AquaticPanic

Intentional Femboy Penguin
is a Community Leaderis a Community Contributor
Community Leader
Feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but I thought this thread was for oficially revealed info only? As in, rumours and leaks and such wouldn't be here?

Even with Khu's riddles being pretty dry "info" that tells us nothing and leaves everything up for interpretation, idt this is the place for rumour talk
 

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