Prediction Warfare! - A Little Cup Warstory


Sup Smogon. It's Towelie and Nails! One day while on the CAP Server, I yelled at Nails to get on the dead ladder. He did, and we played this extraordinary match of epic proportions. Now just know, me and Nails have played each other a bajillion times, so we basically have each others teams memorized. When you know another persons team, the term prediction is taken to a completely different level. You basically have to read your opponents mind and figure out what you think they're going to do. Now just like we knew each others teams, we're going to show our teams which can help you understand why we made certain moves, sac'd certain mon's, and etc. Without further ado, a Little Cup match between Towelie and Nails!

Towelies team:

Nails Team:

Rules: Ladder Match, Sleep Clause, Freeze Clause, OHKO Clause, Evasion Clause, Species Clause, Strict Damage Clause, Little Cup Clause

Log will be in Bold.
My comments will be in Blue.
Nails comments will be in Dark Olive Green

Nails sent out pohca (lvl 5 Machop ?)
Towelieee sent out Mankey (lvl 5 Mankey ?).

100 %
100 %

Ok so the match starts out with my Scarfed Mankey vs. his lead Machop. I use Mankey as a lead to set the pace at the start of the match, U Turn is such an under-valued move and it really helps me start out a match with momentum. Another thing I love about Mankey is that if the opponent predicts wrong, they lose a Pokemon. This thing is very similar to flygon in OU and works great as a lead. Unfortunately, Mankey loses to Machop. Now I’ve played Nails about a million times and I know that his Machop carries Protect/Dynamicpunch/Ice Punch/and Bullet Punch. I usually U-Turn out of his Machop and go to either an Ice Punch resist or a D Punch resist depending on how I feel. I have a feeling he’s going to Dynamicpunch so I’m going to go to my most sturdy fighting resist; Gligar.

I know that his Mankey is scarfed, so I scout his move. If he CC’s, I can switch to Gastly, if he U-Turns I get a free attack out of the deal. Win-win situation.

pohca used Protect.
pohca protected itself!
Mankey used U-turn.
pohca protected itself!

He’s U-Turning. I expect he’ll switch to Gastly to get in on an immunity, so I Ice Punch as it’s the only thing I can hit it with.

Mankey used U-turn.
It's not very effective...
pohca lost 15% of its health.
Towelieee switched in Gligar (lvl 5 Gligar ?).
pohca used Ice Punch.
It's super effective!
A critical hit!
Gligar lost 100% of its health.
Towelieee's Gligar frozen to death.

Frozen Out
85 %

This was an extremely bad misplay by me. My Gligar is the 4 Attacks Life Orb version and is one of my 3 Life Orb users. Now as you can see above, my team is very slow and Gligar is my only 19 speeder. As you can see from his team, if I predict well, he really has nothing at all that can switch into my correct move. Everything on his team is OHKOd bar Munchlax who gets 2hkod by Earthquake. But unfortunately, I mispredicted which gives him early momentum in the match.

Cool, lol ^_^. Free kills are always sweet.I generally Dynamicpunch on the switch even though it’s completely obvious, to punish people who try to outpredict me and keep them honest, but I occasionally throw a curveball.

Towelieee switched in Carvanha (lvl 5 Carvanha ?).

My best switch-in is definitely Carvanha. Carvanha is my only mon that outspeeds him and OHKOs him without taking much damage from Bullet Punch. He knows I have Zen Headbutt/Crunch/Aqua Jet/and Substitute. I know if I get a Sub in, my Vanha really wrecks his team so I know he won’t switch out. I think he’ll just attack me expecting the sub, but I know better than that.

I can’t let him sub. Hopefully he subs and loses 25%, because even though Machop is a great poke, I’d just end up sending it back in after I lost two or three pokes to break his sub and die. Sorry chop, you have to take one for the team =/.

Carvanha used Zen Headbutt.
It's super effective!
pohca lost 85% of its health.
Nails's pohca fainted
pohca's Oran Berry restored health!
Carvanha lost 5% of its health.

95 %

Nails switched in uohcni (lvl 5 Chinchou ?).

Nails brings out his Scarfed Chincou. Scarf Chincou really really trouble my team. It OHKOs almost everything, so he rarely takes risks with it. He usually does the obvious move and go for the super effective attack, so I have something that won’t get 2hkod through Oran by Thunderbolt. Bronzor is definitely the safe switch so I can set up some rocks, or just hit it heard with Earthquake. It can only 2hko me with a crit, but that’s only like… a 6.25 % chance right?

I only have one good revenger on this team, and Chinchou does it really well. The prediction is made way easier due to the fact that I already killed his Gligar, meaning he has no Electric immunes. Tbolt spammery commence!

Towelieee switched in Bronzor (lvl 5 Bronzor).
uohcni used Thunderbolt.
A critical hit!
Bronzor lost 96% of its health.
Bronzor's Oran Berry restored health!
Bronzor restored 40% of its health.

44 %
100 %

uohcni used Thunderbolt.
Bronzor lost 44% of its health.
Towelieee's Bronzor fainted.

100 %

Derp. Well this sucks. Bronzor counters his Dratini and Munchlax, as well as his Gastly after somethings taken the sleep (he runs SubHypnosis) But oh well, I can't dwell on the crit. Now I can safely bring in Wynaut to eat a Thunderbolt while Mirror Coating it for the KO. Without Wynaut, Houndour and Carvanha have a much easier time denting his team with their powerful attacks.

Sweet. Thought a base 95 power move off of 16 SpA and STAB would do more than that, but the hax gods like me. Now I can switch out to a counter to whatever he sends in, and as I’ve killed his two bulkiest pokemon, Chinchy should be able to pull off a Scarf sweep.

Towelieee switched in Wynaut (lvl 5 Wynaut ?).

Crap. Uhh…. Crit Crit Crit Crit Crit!!!

uohcni used Thunderbolt.
Wynaut lost 52% of its health.
Wynaut's Oran Berry restored health!
Wynaut restored 37% of its health.
Wynaut used Mirror Coat.
uohcni lost 100% of its health.
Nails's uohcni fainted.

85 %
Mirror'd (fuck chinchou)

Nails switched in ruonduo (lvl 5 Houndour ?).

Alright so I take out his Chinchou. He brings in his Mixed Houndour which runs Sucker Punch/Fire Blast/Hp Fighting/Dark Pulse. So far Nails has been playing extremely passive this game, always going for the obvious move. I don’t really have anything that can eat any of Houndours attacks so I’m just going to sac Wynaut and bring in something that can easily threaten Houndour.

Now I can’t revenge stuff nearly as well because my team is slow (no 19 speed pokes, timid Gastly is my fastest at 18). I have two frail priority users, a bulky Munchy who nevertheless can only take a couple hits and outspeeds nothing Towelieee has, and a Subs Gastly which depends on a 60% accuracy move to survive. This one isn’t looking too good I’m afraid.

ruonduo used Dark Pulse.
It's super effective!
A critical hit!
Wynaut lost 85% of its health.
Towelieee's Wynaut fainted.
ruonduo lost 10% of its health.

90 %

Towelieee switched in Carvanha (lvl 5 Carvanha ?).

And Wynaut goes down with an unnecessary crit. So I bring in Carvanha. I have two main options here. He knows I have Aqua Jet, so I can either:
1. Substitute on the switch which basically gives me a free kill, or I could…

2. Aqua Jet his Houndour. He may think I’ll Sub expecting him to switch, but he’ll outspeed and KO me with Hp Fighting.

Let’s see what I do.

I don’t like that damn Vanha. I can’t switch anything into it and I can’t even sucker punch it or else it’ll sub and run through my team. Fun stuff. Same as before, I have to sac whatever is in to get in something that forces it out (read: Munchy). Bye houndour.

Carvanha used Aqua Jet.
It's super effective!
ruonduo lost 90% of its health.
Nails's ruonduo fainted.
Carvanha lost 5% of its health.

90 %

Nails switched in xalhcnu (lvl 5 Munchlax ?).

Whoo, take that Houndour! Thankfully, my prediction paid off. He brings in his Munchlax which knows Body Slam, Ice Punch, Earthquake and Pursuit. He’s definitely going to Body Slam me but I don’t want anything to eat a Body Slam. Carvanha has done it's job, so I’m just going to hit Munchy as hard as I can with Crunch and put it in KO range for houndour.

This game is not going well. When Munchlax is my best switch into a Carvanha, you know things aren’t good. I just have to bite the bullet and kill that Carvanha. Who knows, he might switch something in and get paralysed (Body Slam has a similar para rate to Thunder Wave when my munchlax uses it).

Carvanha used Crunch.
xalhcnu lost 70% of its health.
xalhcnu's Oran Berry restored health!
xalhcnu restored 33% of its health.
Carvanha lost 5% of its health.
xalhcnu used Body Slam.
Carvanha lost 84% of its health.
Towelieee's Carvanha fainted.
xalhcnu was hurt by Carvanha's Rough Skin!
xalhcnu lost 10% of its health.

56 %

Towelieee switched in Houndour (lvl 5 Houndour ?).

Houndour used Crunch.
xalhcnu lost 53% of its health.
Nails's xalhcnu fainted.
Houndour lost 10% of its health.

90 %

I don’t like these trades, I generally depend on Munchlax to take a few hits a game and parahax some stuff, but it only got one attack. I have two options here, I could go to Gastly who ohkoes with HP fighting or set up with Dratini. Tini takes an attack and then koes, so I figure that a turn of setup is the best I’m gonna get.

Nails switched in inita (lvl 5 Dratini ?).

His Munclax takes me down but not before being but in Dour’s Crunch KO range. My MixDour knows Crunch so it easily KOs his Munchlax at this health. His last is Dratini and Crunch should KO it so gg Nails!

inita used Dragon Dance.
inita's attack was raised.
inita's speed was raised.
Houndour used Crunch.
inita lost 90% of its health.
inita's Oran Berry restored health!
inita restored 48% of its health.
Houndour lost 10% of its health.

80 %
58 %

Oh fuck… This is bad. This is very bad. His Dratini survives AND recovers health which is very very bad. To stop dratini from sweeping, I need to sac Houndour and just pray that Mankey can take an ExtremeSpeed and Punishment it for the KO... These last few turns are going to ultimately decide the outcome of the match.

inita used Extremespeed.
Houndour lost 81% of its health.
Towelieee's Houndour fainted.

58 %

Towelieee switched in Mankey (lvl 5 Mankey ?).

I do the only thing I can do… Use punishment. I know his last is Gastly so I have to pray to survive ExtremeSpeed, ko with Punishment, and outspeed his Gastly and ko it. Will I survive ExtremeSpeed?

+1 Mankey outspeeds +1 Tini by a mile, so I Espeed as it's my only option.

inita used Extremespeed.
Mankey lost 67% of its health.
Mankey used Punishment.
inita lost 57% of its health.
Nails's inita fainted.

33 %

Yes I do it! YAY! This was a great game Nails and it came down to the wire. Excellent match dude! But wait… Punishment KO’s Gastly right? I hope so.

Gastly comes in to have Mankey finish it off and have Towelie take home the win. Good game Towelie, it was a lot of fun.

Nails switched in yltsa (lvl 5 Gastly ?).

Mankey used Punishment.
It's super effective!


...more suspense...

Keep scrolling you're almost there...

yltsa lost 90% of its health.
yltsa used Shadow Ball.
Mankey lost 33% of its health.
Towelieee's Mankey fainted.
Nails wins!

10 % and grinning slyly.

Shit! Now I'm kicking myself for running Jolly >.<. Anyway, this was an excellent match and I really enjoyed playing in it, as well as making my first warstory. GG Nails and expect more warstories in the future! Now lets look at our Props and Slops.

Gastly is a tank!

…or not. It takes an unstabed base 60 power attack like a paper bag, and survives long enough to Shadow Ball Mankey into death. Great game Towelieee!

Towelies Props and Slops!


-Mankey taking ExtremeSpeed like a champ.
-Carvanha for taking out two of his pokes and significantly damaging his Munchlax.
-Me for outpredicting Nails at times.

-Gligar for dying turn 2 >.<
-Chincou critting my Bronzor.
-Mankey for not KOing Gastly :(

Nails Props and Slops!

-Gligar for protecting the rest of Towelieee’s team from that dangerous Ice Punch.
-Chinchy for bribing Lady Luck into giving it a crit.
-Gastly for demonstrating that even wet cardboard can take one attack.
-All six of my pokes got a kill (and, they all got juice boxes after the match, as Little Cup tradition dictates).

-Me for having a lack of ways to deal with Carvanha.
-Towelieee for running a pokemon that kills my entire team.
-Screw Carvanha.
Nice warstory guys! I don't play Little Cup very much, but it was interesting to see how the battle panned out and the thought processes needed to be successful in the metagame. I thought the suspense box was a nice touch, and the formatting was excellent. Nice work guys!

edit: Also, I think the name should be "The Little Big Game" as I told Towelie on IRC.


is a Tiering Contributoris a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnusis a Past SPL and WCoP Champion
A note on this game: it's about as fast paced a game as you can get. There were literally 3 turns this game that didn't end up with a pokemon dead, and one of those turns I used protect.


2 kawaii 4 u
is a Top Contributor Alumnus
This was an interesting read as it was obvious that you and your opponent both knew each others teams very well, and the insane prediction that was on display was fun to read about. The always interesting dual-comments also spiced up the warstory; nice job (^______^)

Aeron Ee1

Nom nom nom
is a Top Contributor Alumnus
One of the few times i appreciate the "suspense" thing. It be an excellent warstory with lots of props!
Note: It'd be a tie in-game, what with LO recoil.

Somehow, that makes it even better. ^_^

EDIT: Dammit.

The amount of times I've killed Gastly (they are rather common) blurs the line.

Also, I always win without a damn Leadchop confusehax.

I think.
The fact that gligar and bronzor did ABSOLUTELY nothing is quite a downer. And I guess I don't quite understand the dynamics of Little Cup because I didn't feel any ebb or flow or- I un no- non obvious plays. It was so brief!
In Little Cup, games are rarely long so that's why it seemed brief. One thing you have to realize when reading this is that we knew each others team's and we know each others style of play which puts battling on a whole new level. And just because two mons did nothing doesn't mean anything bad >.>


is a Tiering Contributoris a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnusis a Past SPL and WCoP Champion
Gligar and bronzor both gave a free switch in to a pokemon that threatened my team; Gligar allowing Vahna a free switch in, and wynaut killing my only scarfer. That is a very important role. Also, Bronzor should've survived 2 tbolts, had the hax not occurred.
To be honest, I really thought you deserved the win. Your opponent, to me at least, seemed to only win by three critical hits when he needed them (Though unsure of the one on Wynaut. I'm a bit skeptical of Gligar's, but I'm positive that he needed a crit against Bronzor.).

Still, rather entertaining, even if I do think that you were cheated out.



is a Tiering Contributoris a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnusis a Past SPL and WCoP Champion
Ice punch and dark pulse crits were useless, both were ohkoes. The tbolt crit mattered, changed the entire battle. If that hadn't happened, I would've switched out chinchou to gastly, he would've eq'ed, psychiced, or stealth rocked, and it would've been a different battle. That's pokemon.


She Bangs The Drums
is a Contributor Alumnus
Good match with some good patches of prediction as well as a few innovative sets. Its really great to see another LC warstory as hopeully this will finally get some more people into LC!

Good job!

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