So the playoff races are close here, especially for Arcanines, Yveltals, and Lugias. The key matches to watch will be Yveltals vs. Arcanines (this week) and Yveltals vs. Lugias (next week). Let's take a look at what each team's playoff prospects are.
Kyogres (4-1-0, +14 differential): The Kyogres have been on an absolute tear, being undefeated and only tying once. However, most of the teams they have faced have been at the bottom of the leaderboard, with their next matches being against the #4 and #2 ranked teams.
With 9 points, the Kyogres have clinched the playoffs.
Playoff odds: 100%
Hoopas (4-0-1, +12 differential): The Hoopas have had a solid season, with only one close loss and with decisive wins over the Yveltals and Marshadows. The Hoopas haven't yet clinched the playoffs, but they are still overwhelmingly likely to make it in.
- Hoopas do not lose twice(~85%): Hoopas secure playoffs with 9 points.
- Hoopas lose twice (~15%): Even if the Hoopas lose twice, they're still likely to make playoffs.
- Arcanines tie Yveltals (~22.5%): If the Arcanines and Yveltals tie, neither of them can catch up to the Hoopas.
- Yveltals beat Arcanines:
- Yveltals beat Lugias:
- Lugias beat Kyogres: If all of these moving parts come together as one, then it comes down to differential, with 3 teams competing for the third- and fourth- place spots. The Hoopas are still likely to make it in thanks to their huge differential lead over the Lugias and Yveltals.
- Lugias do not beat Kyogres(~61.3%): Lugias are knocked out of the running, with Hoopas and Yveltals making it in.
- Yveltals do not beat Lugias (~61.3%): The Yveltals are out of the running here, putting the Hoopas in.
- Arcanines beat Yveltals:
- Arcanines beat Marshadows: In this case it rests on the Lugias matchups.
- Lugias get 2 wins(~15%) or 1 win and 1 tie (~17.5%): The Lugias take the third playoff spot, turning it into differential between the Arcanines and Hoopas.
- Lugias get 1 win and 1 loss (~30%): If all of these moving parts come together as one, then it comes down to differential, with 3 teams competing for the third- and fourth- place spots. The Hoopas are still likely to make it in thanks to their huge differential lead over the Lugias and Arcanines.
- Lugias get 2 ties (~5.1%): With 2 ties, the Lugias' differential is set at +4 here.
- Lugias get 1 loss and 1 tie (~17.5%) or 2 losses (~15%): The Lugias are knocked out of the running, putting the Arcanines and Hoopas in.
- Arcanines do not beat Marshadows: The Arcanines and Lugias are left to compete for the last spot in the playoffs, with Hoopas making it in.
Playoff odds: >98.4% (This figure refers to the odds that the Hoopas can coast by on their W-L ratio alone. The hoopas need to seriously tank their differential to lose to the Lugias and Arcanines/Yveltals as well.)
Galarian Zapdoses (3-1-1, +10 differential): Team Gapdos has been strong and consistent throughout the season against teams at the top and bottom of the leaderboard, and have strong playoff prospects.
- G-Zapdos gets 2 wins(~15%), 1 win and 1 tie (~17.5%), 1 win and 1 loss (~30%), or 2 ties (~5.1%): G-Zapdos clinches playoffs with 9 points.
- G-Zapdos gets 1 loss and 1 tie (~17.5%): Gapdos still has a good shot at making playoffs with 8 points thanks to their solid differential. It doesn't matter who the loss and tie are against, as Xerns are out of the running and Hoopas secure playoffs either way.
- Arcanines and Yveltals tie(~22.5%): Gapdos are in if Arcs and Yvels tie, since neither can catch up to them in points.
- Arcanines and Yveltals do not tie(~77.4%):
- this is extremely complicated so I'm going to leave this section for last
- G-Zapdos gets 2 losses(~15%): Even with 7 points, Gapdos can still make playoffs, depending on how the Yveltals' and Arcanines' week 6 and 7 matches go.
- Arcanines and Yveltals tie(~22.5%): If the Arcanines and Yveltals tie, then it'll be difficult to catch up to the differential of Gapdos.
- Arcanines beat Yveltals(~38.7%):
- seriously why does gapdos have really funky victory conditions
Lugias (2-2-1, +4 differential): Team Lugia had a hectic early season but has seemed to have settled down with ties against the Marshadows and Gapdos. The Lugias' week 7 match against Team Yveltal will affect the playoff prospects of a few other teams as well.
- Lugias get 2 wins(~15%) or 1 win and 1 tie (~17.5%): Lugias secure playoffs with 9 points
- Lugias get 2 ties (~5.1%): Tying the Yveltals means they can't catch up to the Lugias, putting it down to the Arcanines' matchups.
- Arcanines get 2 wins (~15%):
- G-Zapdos and Hoopas tie: The Hoopas take the second playoff spot here.
- G-Zapdos does not lose to Xerneas: G-Zapdos takes the third, putting it down to a differential war between Arcanines and Lugias.
- G-Zapdos loses to Xerneas: This comes down to a 3-way differential war for two playoff spots between Arcanines, Lugias, and G-Zapdos. Depending on the quality of the Arcanines' wins, they have a shot at making it in.
- G-Zapdos beats Hoopas: G-Zapdos takes the second playoff spot.
- Hoopas do not lose to Kyogres: Hoopas take the third, putting it down to a differential war between Arcanines and Lugias.
- Hoopas lose to Kyogres: This comes down to a 3-way differential war for two playoff spots between Arcanines, Lugias, and Hoopas. Depending on the quality of the Arcanines' wins, they have a shot at making it in.
- Hoopas beat G-Zapdos: Hoopas take the second playoff spot and put G-Zapdos in a weird position.
- G-Zapdos beats Xerneas: G-Zapdos takes the third, putting it down to a differential war between Arcanines and Lugias.
- G-Zapdos loses to Xerneas: The Arcanines and Lugias both make it in on points if G-Zapdos loses twice.
- G-Zapdos ties Xerneas: This comes down to a 3-way differential war for two playoff spots between Arcanines, Lugias, and G-Zapdos. Depending on the quality of the Arcanines' wins, they have a shot at making it in.
- Arcanines do not get 2 wins(~15%): The Arcanines fall behind the Lugias.
- Lugias beat Kyogres and lose to Yveltals(~15%): Unlike with Gapdos, who the Lugias lose to actually matters here, as the Yveltals are in direct competition with them for a playoff spot.
- Yveltals beat Arcanines: If the Arcanines lose while the Lugias win, the Arcanines are taken out of the running.
- G-Zapdos and Hoopas tie: The Hoopas take the second playoff spot here.
- G-Zapdos does not lose to Xerneas: G-Zapdos takes the third, putting it down to a differential war between Yveltals and Lugias.
- G-Zapdos loses to Xerneas: This comes down to a 3-way differential war for two playoff spots between Yveltals, Lugias, and G-Zapdos. The Lugias have a good enough differential to likely get a spot.
- G-Zapdos beats Hoopas: G-Zapdos takes the second playoff spot.
- Hoopas do not lose to Kyogres: Hoopas take the third, putting it down to a differential war between Yveltals and Lugias.
- Hoopas lose to Kyogres: This comes down to a 3-way differential war for two playoff spots between Yveltals, Lugias, and Hoopas. The Lugias have a good enough differential to likely get a spot.
- Hoopas beat G-Zapdos: Hoopas take the second playoff spot and put G-Zapdos in a weird position.
- G-Zapdos beats Xerneas: G-Zapdos takes the third, putting it down to a differential war between Yveltals and Lugias.
- G-Zapdos loses to Xerneas: The Yveltals and Lugias both make it in on points if G-Zapdos loses twice.
- G-Zapdos ties Xerneas: This comes down to a 3-way differential war for two playoff spots between Yveltals, Lugias, and G-Zapdos. The Lugias have a good enough differential to likely get a spot.
- Arcanines beat Yveltals: If the Yveltals lose while Lugias win, Yveltals can no longer catch up to the top 4 teams.
- Arcanines do not beat Marshadows: The Arcanines also fall behind the Lugias here, leaving them in the clear.
- Arcanines beat Marshadows: The Arcanines catch up to the Lugias in points here.
- G-Zapdos and Hoopas tie: The Hoopas take the second playoff spot here.
- G-Zapdos does not lose to Xerneas: G-Zapdos takes the third, putting it down to a differential war between Arcanines and Lugias.
- G-Zapdos loses to Xerneas: This comes down to a 3-way differential war for two playoff spots between Arcanines, Lugias, and G-Zapdos. Depending on the quality of the Arcanines' wins, they have a shot at making it in.
- G-Zapdos beats Hoopas: G-Zapdos takes the second playoff spot.
- Hoopas do not lose to Kyogres: Hoopas take the third, putting it down to a differential war between Arcanines and Lugias.
- Hoopas lose to Kyogres: This comes down to a 3-way differential war for two playoff spots between Arcanines, Lugias, and Hoopas. Depending on the quality of the Arcanines' wins, they have a shot at making it in.
- Hoopas beat G-Zapdos: Hoopas take the second playoff spot and put G-Zapdos in a weird position.
- G-Zapdos beats Xerneas: G-Zapdos takes the third, putting it down to a differential war between Arcanines and Lugias.
- G-Zapdos loses to Xerneas: The Arcanines and Lugias both make it in on points if G-Zapdos loses twice.
- G-Zapdos ties Xerneas: This comes down to a 3-way differential war for two playoff spots between Arcanines, Lugias, and G-Zapdos. Depending on the quality of the Arcanines' wins, they have a shot at making it in.
- Arcanines and Yveltals tie: Neither of them can catch up to the Lugias in points if they tie.
- Lugias tie Yveltals and lose to Kyogres: The Yveltals are in a very difficult spot if they tie.
- Yveltals beat Arcanines: This would knock Arcanines out of the running and guarantee a spot for Hoopas, with a nearly-guaranteed spot for Gapdos.
- G-Zapdos does not lose twice: This would leave only one spot for Yveltals and Lugias, down to differential. The Yveltals have a hill to climb here and would need to win 5 more games than the Lugias in week 6 to get a tiebreak(e.g. yveltals win 9-3 and lugias lose 4-8), with more than that giving the Yveltals a spot in the playoffs.
- G-Zapdos loses twice: This is similar to the above scenario but has the added complication of the differential war being 3-way for 2 slots in playoffs, with Gapdos being at +6 differential max to Lugia's +2 max and Yveltal's -4 min.
- Arcanines and Yveltals tie: Yveltals can't catch up to Lugias if they tie twice, but the Arcanines are still in the running, guaranteeing a spot for Hoopas and a nearly-guaranteed spot for Gapdos.
- Arcanines beat Marshadows:
- G-Zapdos does not lose twice: This would leave only one spot for Arcanines and Lugias, down to differential. The Arcanines have a hill to climb here and would need to win 4 more games than the Lugias in week 6 to get a tiebreak(e.g. Arcanines win 8-4 and lugias lose 4-8), with more than that giving the Arcanines a spot in the playoffs.
- G-Zapdos loses twice: This is similar to the above scenario but has the added complication of the differential war being 3-way for 2 slots in playoffs, with Gapdos being at +6 differential max to Lugias' +2 max and Arcanines' -2 min.
- Arcanines do not beat Marshadows: The Arcanines fall behind the Lugias.
- Arcanines beat Yveltals: Arcanines have a slightly better differential than the Yveltals, giving them way better shots if it comes to a differential war.
- Arcanines beat Marshadows: The Arcanines clinch the playoffs here, making it all down to the Gapdos games.
- Gapdos do not lose twice: The Lugias are done for unless the Gapdos takes some really bad losses.
- Gapdos lose twice: Even here, they need Gapdos to have bad losses and Lugias to have close losses.
- Lugias lose to Yveltals and tie Kyogres: With the Yveltals having at least 6 points, this could be bad for Lugias. This automatically means the Hoopas clinch playoffs.
- Yveltals beat Arcanines: The Yveltals pull ahead here and clinch a spot in the playoffs, making it all down to the Gapdos games.
- Gapdos do not lose twice: The Lugias are done for unless the Gapdos takes some really bad losses.
- Gapdos lose twice: Even here, they need Gapdos to have bad losses and Lugias to have close losses.
- Yveltals and Arcanines tie:
- Arcanines do not beat Marshadows: The Arcanines are left behind here.
- Arcanines beat Marshadows: The Arcanines are still in the game with 7 points.
- Gapdos do not lose twice: Gapdos clinch with tying either of their games, and if they do, there's only one spot left and 3 teams comparing their differential to compete for it.
- Gapdos lose twice: With these conditions, there's a 4-way differential war for 2 playoff spots.
- Arcanines beat Yveltals: The Yveltals get knocked out here.
- Arcanines beat Marshadows: Arcanines clinch with 8 points in this scenario, leaving one slot for Gapdos and Lugia.
- Gapdos lose twice: yadda yadda gapdos severe losses lugias close losses
- Arcanines tie Marshadows: Arcanines can still make it here, with the Gapdos matches determining whether the differential war is between 3 teams for 2 slots or between 2 teams for one slot.
- Gapdos lose twice: 3-way differential war for 2 slots
- Gapdos do not lose twice: 2-way differential war for one slot
- Arcanines lose to Marshadows: The Arcanines are no longer around to compete with the Lugias.
- Lugias lose twice: This would mean the Lugias are unable to catch up to the Gapdos and Hoopas, leaving only one spot in the playoffs, but they can still make it in with the right conditions.
- Arcanines beat Yveltals: This prevents the Yveltals from pulling ahead,
- Marshadows beat Arcanines: and this keeps them all at 6 points, putting it down to differential. This isn't a guaranteed spot for the Lugias, since they need the Arcanines and Yveltals to not have a decisive win and a close loss.
Playoff odds: calculate this at your own risk
Arcanines and Yveltals coming later.
Xerneases (0-1-4, -12 differential): The Xerneases cannot make playoffs, as they cannot catch up to the currently fourth-place team (Lugias).
Playoff odds: 0%
Marshadows (0-1-4, -18 differential): The Marshadows cannot make playoffs, as they cannot catch up to the currently fourth-place team (Lugias)
Playoff odds: 0%
(will post the rest of this tomorrow, i'm going to bed)
