Smogon Classic VII Playoffs - Finals [Won by ABR]

TonyFlygon

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Sorry for skipping last round, but here are some more predictions. :pimp:

ABR vs. Altina - Like I would if I were to rank SPL XII players based on their average price per loss, I'll start with ABR. The highest seed remaining at 13 (??), this bracket is starting to feel more and more like it'll end with [Won by ABR]. After trying to Megahorn down a Steelix with his Heracross round 1, I feel quite a bit better about ABR's showing against Obelisk the Tormentor, too. That series would've been over in three very quick ones if friso hadn't decided to go Tentacruel on Latios to Rapid Spin on a +1 Dragon Gem Draco Meteor miss. However, I think it's a blessing in disguise for ABR, as he played a very clean GSC game after that, which seemed much needed for his confidence in that tier. He even brought a Zapdos this time! Definitely the sharpest he's looked there since directing me not to go to a phazer against his Sand Attack team during SPL test games.

As for his opponent, Altina hasn't been too shabby himself either. Star was the favorite to win this tournament according to many, yet Altina continued where he left off in the tiebreak and took him out immediately, only for Stareal to be brushed aside a week later as well. The BW game was a little concerning, though I know first hand that those types of moments are easy to overcome for Altina in the long run. Frankly, Altina has very much looked like he belongs on this stage, especially with a very deep run in the Callous Invitational to boot. It's too bad his opponent this round is one of two people that did even better in that tournament. But hey, he was also supposed to lose the ADV game to Star, right? And Star doesn't 10-2 lose those.

Ultimately I'm still predicting ABR to win here, because he's just really locked in right now. I've had the pleasure to see him at his best (and worst..) and he knows this is a prime opportunity for him to finally win this tournament. McMeghan and SoulWind are both eliminated (despite not touching any grass) and he's made semis into finals of this tournament in the last two years already. Frankly, the only thing stopping him then was his needlessly high seed. Historically he can't really win shit as a top seed, so perhaps this is the way to do it once more. Unlike Altina, he has all the experience he needs in a position like this, while also being diverse in his team choices across the board. Life isn't easy when you have to respect all of hyper offense, stall and Baton Pass in a handful of generations. Then again, with Excal in Altina's corner, ABR has to respect Pokemon like Camerupt and Victreebel himself. This series might get ungodly.

watashi vs. crucify - I'm not gonna lie, I would not have bolded watashi if I had posted predictions last week. It just felt like a typical watashi experience to eliminate McMeghan immediately and to then lose to someone that only entered two cups. It appears, however, that watashi is for real this time. He's taking this quite seriously by the looks of it, and I needed a moment to adjust to that. After putting on another spiesc display last round, I think watashi is gonna make it all the way to the final, if not win the entire thing. He's looked capable in all five tiers and we know that this stage of the tournament won't faze him one bit.

crucify is a surprising feature in this year's semi final, but surprises like these are always welcome. It's nice to see newer names sneak in from time to time, and crucify hasn't needed much time to adapt to his surroundings. The BW team looked massively dangerous again and I'd put my money on crucify once more in that generation; he has this tier nailed down. Whether the wins can keep coming in the others I'm less sure about. The GSC game against Mana required quite a few fortunate breaks to go his way, for example. I will say that the DPP team choice was a pleasant discovery, and I can definitely see the merit of these vintage Tyranitar sets to smash the Clefable structures we see a lot in DPP right now. I really respect that you're approaching this tournament your own way, crucify. Not just importing proven teams, but exploring and winning the way you think might be best. It's what got you this far, too.

I'm quite conflicted here and feel a lot less certain about bolding watashi than I do about bolding ABR, but I think watashi's experience and actual motivation to win will come through here. The main risk I foresee, other than him playing AMQ, Smogon Tour and ORASPL at the same time as this Classic series, is watashi clicking right into some unforeseen tech without thinking about it twice first. General playing level and tier experience favors watashi across the board, but crucify has been cooking and if watashi doesn't respect that it might be time to go back to a username with a capital L or two. Being creative himself, I'm leaning towards watashi to maintain a handle on things. I'm extremely excited to see what kinds of teams both of them are going to bring and I can't wait to catch this one live.
 
ggs ABR.
I liked to thank Excal, DeepBlueC, Sakito Hayburner Vulpix03 Hyogafodex McMeghan for giving me advice on tiers I do not know how to build and play (read: everything bar ADV).

Further like to thank Sadlysius Hclat and vapicuno for being ADV sounding boards the last few months, the asiancy for moral support at every step of the way, and all the people who supported me and pmed me nice stuff these last couple of months.

Until next time
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ggs ABR.
I liked to thank Excal, DeepBlueC, Sakito Hayburner Vulpix03 Hyogafodex McMeghan for giving me advice on tiers I do not know how to build and play (read: everything bar ADV).

Further like to thank Sadlysius Hclat and vapicuno for being ADV sounding boards the last few months, the asiancy for moral support at every step of the way, and all the people who supported me and pmed me nice stuff these last couple of months.

Until next time
View attachment 385020View attachment 385020View attachment 385020
you're still buying me and ShinyAzelf dinner for the next round
 
ggs crucify

was a nice surprise to get this far but it looks like watashi time is over. shoutouts to rui/osgoode/sausage/cobra kai dojo/retired/i love lacus/crayon poop for working tirelessly to help me prep dpp and calling my teams shit in other tiers. first time i had such great support in a tournament for sure. thanks to mana/tony/anti for helping out in various rounds too and the boys for cheering me on as always
 

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