Tournament Smogon Exhibition II: PU Discussion [Won by the Victory Road Elites]

[TJ]

With Smogon Exhibition II underway, this thread will be used to discuss PU related topics, whether it's about the players, general metagame trends, matches, predictions and so on. I will update this thread frequently with each new week, player standings, and replays.

Smogon Exhibition Schedule
Pricelist

Replays

Week 1:
[DDD] TJ vs. Taskr [CFD]
[DDD] TonyFlygon vs. Rexus [CFD]
[RCF] Raiza vs. LAX [LVG]
[RCF] Evigaro vs. passion [LVG]
[MCM] Sam I Yam vs. Kushalos [AIH]
[MCM] Robert Alfons vs. LordST [AIH]
[SCS] Lycans vs. Ktutverde [VRE]
[SCS] Osh vs. Xiri [VRE]
Week 2:
[DDD] TJ vs. LAX [LVG]
[RCF] Raiza vs. Robert Alfons [MCM]
[SCS] Lycans vs. LordST [AIH]
[VRE] Ktutverde vs. Taskr [CFD]
[VRE] Xiri vs. Rexus [CFD]
[AIH] Kushalos vs. Shanegoul [SCS]
[DDD] TonyFlygon vs. teal6 [LVG]
[RCF] Evigaro vs. Sam I Yam [MCM]
Week 3:
[DDD] Kingler12345 vs. Raiza [RCF]
[VRE] Ktutverde vs. Many [LVG]
[AIH] Kushalos vs. Rexus [CFD]
[DDD] TJ vs. Evigaro [RCF]
[VRE] Xiri vs. Ima [LVG]
[MCM] Robert Alfons vs. Lycans [SCS]
[MCM] Sam I Yam vs. Osh [SCS]
[CFD] Taskr vs. LordST [AIH]
Week 4:
[SCS] Shaneghoul vs. Rexus [CFD]
[LVG] ima vs. Robert Alfons [MCM]
[VRE] Wild Drud vs. Raiza [RCF]
[MCM] Sam I Yam vs. Many [LVG]
[RCF] Hamhamhamham vs. Ktutverde [VRE]
[DDD] TJ vs. snaga [AIH]
[AIH] LordST vs. Tony [DDD]
Week 5:
[RCF] Hamhamhamham vs Rexus [CFD]
[RCF] col49 vs Taskr [CFD]
[AIH] Kushalos vs Drud [VRE]
[AIH] LordST vs Xiri [VRE]
[LVG] PILZ vs Shaneghoul [SCS]
[LVG] ima vs Lycans [SCS]
[MCM] Robert Alfons vs TJ [DDD]
Week 6:
[RCF] EviGaro vs Shaneghoul [SCS]
[VRE] tcr vs TJ [DDD]
[CFD] Rexus vs Robert Alfons [MCM]
[CFD] Taskr vs Exiline [MCM]
[AIH] LordST vs ima [LVG]
[AIH] Kushalos vs passion [LVG]
[DDD] TonyFlygon vs rozes [VRE]
[RCF] hamhamhamham vs Lycans [SCS]
Week 7:
[RCF] Raiza vs LordST [AIH]
[MCM] Exiline vs tcr [VRE]
[MCM] Xayah vs Drud [VRE]
[DDD] TJ vs shaneghoul [SCS]
[DDD] Melle2402 vs Lycans [SCS]
[LVG] PILZ vs Rexus [CFD]
[LVG] passion vs Taskr [CFD]
Semi Finals:
[MCM] Xayah vs H.M.N.I.P [CFD]
[MCM] Robert Alfons vs Rexus [CFD]
[DDD] TJ vs Ktütverde [VRE]
[DDD] TonyFlygon vs Xiri [VRE]
Finals:
[MCM] Robert Alfons vs Ktutverde [VRE]

Player Standings

Ktutverde: 5-1
Xiri: 5-1
Rexus: 5-3
Shanegoul: 4-1
Kushalos: 4-2
Lycans: 4-3
LordST: 4-3
TJ: 4-4
Robert Alfons: 4-4
Sam I Yam: 3-2
TonyFlygon: 3-2
tcr: 2-0
Hamhamhamham: 2-1
passion: 2-1
Raiza: 2-3
Kingler12345: 1-0
Exiline: 1-1
LAX: 1-1
col49: 1-1
Xayah: 1-1
Evigaro: 1-3
Ima: 1-3
Drud: 1-2
Taskr: 1-6
H.M.N.I.P: 0-1
Melle2402: 0-1
teal6: 0-1
snaga: 0-1
rozes: 0-1
PILZ: 0-2
Many: 0-2
Osh: 0-2

Potential PU'ers:
Alolan Island Hoppers: Kushalos, Arifeen, LordST, Santu, Snaga
Cinnabar Firedogs: Taskr, Luthier, Rexus, Alkione, SiTuM, Jmash324, H.M.N.I.P
Relic Castle Fossils: Evigaro, g, Raiza, tazz, Hamhamhamham, fatty, col49
Luke Valor Guardians: FLCL, passion, ayevon, Many, PILZ, Vulpix03, lax
Victory Road Elites: Ktutverde, Xiri, Toadow, tcr, Wabane, Havens, Gondra, Drud, Kaori
Striaton City Snackers: Lycans, Osh, Fille, Shaneghoul
Mauville City Magnets: Chaitanya, Robert Alfons, Xayah, Sam I Yam
Dragon's Den Drakes: TJ, TonyFlygon, Kingler12345​

 

[tcr]

I know people probably don't really know me outside of a handful of people, but I hope that my manager lets me play this cool tier at least once :) People that I would be extremely happy duking it out with are LordST, fatty, Robert Alfons, TJ, and Taskr.

Moreover I'm pretty excited for this iteration of the metagame and what might come teambuilding wise. Minior being freed means that you'll probably see a lot more bulky waters like Quagsire or Gastrodon (also freed), and in general more bulky mons rise of things like Mudsdale and Regirock. You'll probably see less of things like Dodrio or Stoutland that present Minior with free setup opportunities, and you'll see some cool pivots in things like Eelektross as well. Eel's rise would mean that Eggy would also give rise, so it will really be nice to see how people adapt to that. One thing I'm glad about leaving is Togedameru honestly, it was just a little too splashable on every team and for me personally kinda limited my building types. It wasn't broken or anything just kinda like Lando-t or Mienfoo in OU and LC respectively, like ADV OU's TTar or something, and it'll be nice to see the different scarfers that people will bring (I'm predicting stuff ~95 Speed, like Jynx especially).

Overall good luck to all players and let's have a fun tournament :)

 

[snaga]

 

[TJ]

Week 1 PU Matches:

Relic Castle Fossils (0) vs Lake Valor Guardians (2)

SM PU: Raiza vs LAX
SM PU: EviGaro vs passion

Mauville City Magnets (2) vs Alolan Island Hoppers (0)

SM PU: Sam I Yam vs Kushalos
SM PU: Robert Alfons vs LordST

Dragon's Den Drakes (1) vs Cinnabar Firedogs (1)

SM PU: TJ vs Taskr
SM PU: TonyFlygon vs Rexus

Striaton City Snackers (0) vs Victory Road Elites (2)

SM PU: Lycans vs Ktütverde
SM PU: Osh vs Xiri

 

[g]

I checked Discord this morning only to be greeted by the following message.

So here we go.

As you all know i have been out of the scene for a while and couldn't really use my knowledge of the playerbase to make this happen so I had to resort to science to rank players that are starting week 1 analytically. Like the last time I based my rankings on PU knowledge and Tournament performance so i had to come up with values for those and a formula. The first part was quite easy and i used the metric "messages in the PU Discord".

PU Proficiency

I then centered the data on myself to make it easier to read.

For the second part it was a bit of a struggle. I didn't think messages in the Tournament discord would be quite as representative. Checking tournament winrate was a bit tedious so I had the genious idea of correlating tournament performance with likes ratio since we all know win posts in the tournament forums are the ones that get the most likes with the smallest effort.

Tournament Success

I centered this on my result again and took the square root to have a smaller perturbation.

the formula

The final result is the convex sum of the two and the g unit was born. I of course score 1 in it and these are the official scientific power rankings that rank everyone who is playing PU without failure.

So yeah have fun in this tournament

 

[Tony]

 

[MZ]

HJAD did some power rankings on this week's Untier Talk. You can listen for the full details (the power rankings part takes ~ the first 35 min) but tl;dw
1. fossils
2. magnets
3. snackers
4. elites
5. drakes
6/7 firedogs/guardians because we couldn't agree
Even the lowest teams are solid with potential to do real well and I'm looking forward to see what every player has to offer, PU mains and non-mains alike. Hoppers gonna put in some work tho

 

[MZ]

Revised Untier Talk power rankings

the same but swap fossils and guardians

 

[TJ]

Week 2 PU Matches:

Relic Castle Fossils (1) vs Mauville City Magnets (1)

SM PU: EviGaro vs Sam I Yam
SM PU: Raiza vs Robert Alfons

Dragon's Den Drakes (2) vs Lake Valor Guardians (0)

SM PU: TJ vs LAX
SM PU: TonyFlygon vs teal6

Striaton City Snackers (0) vs Alolan Island Hoppers (2)

SM PU: Shanegoul vs Kushalos
SM PU: Lycans vs LordST

Victory Road Elites (2) vs Cinnabar Firedogs (0)

SM PU: Ktütverde vs Taskr
SM PU: Xiri vs Rexus

 

[termi]

predix

TonyFlygon (55) vs passion (45): slightly favoring tony because of tj support, i think he's more capable of bringing a team that can do well against most other teams as opposed to passion, whose teams are rarely without holes. still, passion makes for a tough opponent to prepare for, he definitely has more of an unpredictability factor than most other players in this pool.
Osh (25) vs Kushalos (75): battle of the NU mains oo. osh seems perfectly competent but competent often isn't good enough when you face kushalos, and the latter also has osh beat in terms of team support so i think bar bad mu or hax kush should take this.
Lycans (60) vs LordST (40): giving lycans the edge because he clearly has a higher skill ceiling despite his relative inexperience in pu, however i felt his team last week (probably given to him by teddeh) was a little behind the times, that type of balance is only so effective in a meta as offensive as the current one. lst's meta knowledge may give him an edge in the teambuilder and i think he's good enough to pilot a good matchup to victory, but in a neutral matchup lycans has a clear advantage.
Ktütverde (55) vs Taskr (45): highlight match of the week for sure, based on his recent successes and his ability to fish for good matchups i'm giving ktüt the edge but this one can go either way for sure.
Xiri (60) vs Rexus (40): to be entirely honest i don't know who rexus is but he performed fine in week 1. giving xiri the edge here based on his greater experience with the meta, dude got into pu circuit playoffs so he's clearly no pushover.

 

[TJ]

Week 3 PU Matches:

Relic Castle Fossils (0) vs Dragon's Den Drakes (2)

SM PU: EviGaro vs TJ
SM PU: Raiza vs Kingler12345

Striaton City Snackers (0) vs Mauville City Magnets (2)

SM PU: Osh vs Sam I Yam
SM PU: Lycans vs Robert Alfons

Victory Road Elites (2) vs Lake Valor Guardians (0)

SM PU: Ktütverde vs Many
SM PU: Xiri vs ima

Cinnabar Firedogs (1) vs Alolan Island Hoppers (1)

SM PU: Rexus vs Kushalos
SM PU: Taskr vs LordST

 

[Kingler]

Dragon's Den Drakes: TJ, TonyFlygon

i hope this is updated appropriately

 

[TJ]

Week 4 PU Matches:

Relic Castle Fossils (2) vs Victory Road Elites (0)

SM PU: Hamhamhamham vs Ktütverde
SM PU: Raiza vs Wild Drud

Cinnabar Firedogs (0) vs Striaton City Snackers (2)

SM PU: Rexus vs Shaneghoul
SM PU: Taskr vs Lycans

Alolan Island Hoppers (1) vs Dragon's Den Drakes (1)

SM PU: snaga vs TJ
SM PU: LordST vs TonyFlygon

Mauville City Magnets (1) vs Lake Valor Guardians (1)

SM PU: Sam I Yam vs Many
SM PU: Robert Alfons vs ima

 

[LordST]

Relic Castle Fossils (0) vs Victory Road Elites (2)
Hamhamhamham vs Ktütverde: Ktut has proven why hes the circuit champ. He had a bit of a hiccup last week choking but getting saved with a crit, but I think he should be able to win this. Ham is a really good player, but idt he has a whole lot of PU experience. He does have the skill to pull off an upset though, so if Evi or whoever is building is able to pass him a build with a neutral matchup it could be interesting. Definetly a highlight match for me.
Raiza vs Xiri: I dont like predicting against Raiza, but overall I feel Xiri has been playing better and the results show it. Xiri has been getting somewhat lucky with matchups and one key crit while Raiza got haxed to oblivion last week, but I feel Xiri's builds have been more on the cutting edge of the meta and that will be the difference maker here.

Cinnabar Firedogs (1) vs Striaton City Snackers (1)
Rexus vs Shaneghoul: Shane's only played one game and he basically threw it, but I think in a week where he's trying and getting building support from Ted and Dibs, he's a threat. Rexus has had a good showing so far, but some of their builds have been questionable and they've just played decent. A hard matchup to call for sure.
Taskr vs Lycans: Two very good players who haven't had the best tour so far makes this an interesting matchup. Both have been playing fine with decent builds so it's really hard to call one way or the other. Really the only thing differentiated them is Taskr's meta knowledge, so I'll give the edge to him.

Mauville City Magnets (1) vs Lake Valor Guardians (1)
Sam I Yam vs Many: Mom got quite unlucky last week and I think he's gonna be very hungry for a W. If he can drive that hunger in a positive direction and properly prep, I think he can finally have his breakout. Sam has been playing solid though so it'll be no easy feat to overcome.
Robert Alfons vs ima: Fagtron will bring Swoobat stall and win. ez predict

 

[TJ]

Week 6:

Relic Castle Fossils (0) vs Striaton City Snackers (2)
SM PU: Hamhamhamham vs Lycans
SM PU: EviGaro vs Shaneghoul

Victory Road Elites (1) vs Dragon's Den Drakes (1)
SM PU: tcr vs TJ
SM PU: Serene Grace vs TonyFlygon

Cinnabar Firedogs (1) vs Mauville City Magnets (1)
SM PU: Rexus vs Robert Alfons
SM PU: Taskr vs Exiline

Alolan Island Hoppers (2) vs Lake Valor Guardians (0)
SM PU: LordST vs ima
SM PU: Kushalos vs passion

 

[TJ]

Week 7 PU Matches:

Relic Castle Fossils (0) vs Alolan Island Hoppers (0)
SM PU: Raiza vs LordST
SM PU: col49 vs Kushalos

Mauville City Magnets (0) vs Victory Road Elites (0)
SM PU: Exiline vs tcr
SM PU: Xayah vs Drud

Dragon's Den Drakes (0) vs Striaton City Snackers (0)
SM PU: TJ vs Shaneghoul
SM PU: TonyFlygon vs Lycans

Lake Valor Guardians (0) vs Cinnabar Firedogs (0)
SM PU: PILZ vs Rexus
SM PU: passion vs Taskr