Well, you could have dealt a max of 90% to Ferrothorn with that FB, and I did my earlier calcs wrong. Taking the CM boost into account, and SR by starting at 87%, you could have rolled a max FB, which hit's my max HP arceus for about 42% maximum. Considering Judgement has the same BP, I was receiving leech seed, and had Substitute, it was pretty likely that I could have won had I not gotten critted in the first 3-4 turns I got Drago arceus in, the numner of turns depending on roll, and set up from there, stalling you out of recover. But like you said there's no way to really know, gg