Smogon Premier League XVI - Commencement Thread

Niko said:
Bro won 2 SPL and made 12 playoffs but there is people with 8 messages on Smogon thinking they're in the same spot :psycry:
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wooooooo super late again im on holiday and spending 99% of my free time playing balatro!!
I haven't done much for this season as I was on holiday, but the team took care of everything and I really wanna shoutouts Irpachuza Turtleye_ and especially sharpclaw, deetah & RADU, who all went crazy this edition!
It's rly nice seeing how many people are involved now, and big thanks to managers who are always super creative with their ideas, and super nice to work with.

The only sprite I made this season was
Circus Maximus Tigers
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AI-Sada sprite by Brumirage, edits by myself

see y'all for world cup o7
 
Bro no way dragon trosko zom is number 5 that shis crazy
Yall underestimate Mariano way too much man

Alright my prediction is that conflict doesn't play the full season in gsc cuz that's fate
 
emma said:
nicole7735, SaDiSTiCNarwhal, Sceptross, and I (and potentially more!) will be streaming the SPL XVI RBY Smogcast on my Twitch tomorrow at 3 PM -8 / 6 PM -5 / 12 AM +2 to discuss the upcoming RBY OU season. The vod will later be uploaded to my Youtube.
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Aliss, nicole7735, SaDiSTiCNarwhal, Sceptross, and I recorded the SPL XVI RBY Smogcast! Check out the stats I collected and our final Power Rankings here.


Also, check out marcoasd's video on the SPL XVI RBY Starters!

 
planning on covering every single game of mine on a bi-weekly basis for this year's SPL
if you enjoy, LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, & COMMENT. if you have any feedback, please let me know as well. I WILL be including losses, unlike many Pokemon influencers. I do NOT plan on losing that much though, lol.

take care
 
In light of recent events:

SV OU:

DPP OU:


I'm the best player in the pool and I'm ready to save SPL. I'm also the randbats + discord goat. #DriftingMidz
 
How does the sum of predicted games equals to 59 when the number of games played is 12*5 = 60? Is there a game which is not getting counted?
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undisputed said:
If you're like me, you eagerly anticipate Finchinator's weekly prediction post or video. Why won't your name be bolded this week? You can't wait to read Finch's carefully considered, factually based assessment of your (lack of) skills in competitive Pokemon.

As Smogon's most revered, try-hard prediction poster, I found myself asking: just how good is Finchinator? Is he the best to ever do it?

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I asked our ape to predict the winners of each match for the past 5 weeks of Smogon's Premier League. The ape deliberated on each match for a couple seconds and selected his winner, repeating the process until all 240 matches had been predicted. The ape correctly predicted upsets like Poek vs. p2, but it also blundered on obvious selections like z0mog vs. John. Overall, the ape managed to predict 50% of matches correct.

I then examined Finchinator's SPL 9 predictions thus far and compared them to the actual results of the past 5 weeks. Surely Finchinator could give our ape some pointers, right?

Well... actually, no. Finchinator's predictions come in at a staggering 46.63% accuracy. In fact, Finchinator hasn't outperformed our ape in even one (1) week this SPL yet! The closest Finch has come to beating our ape is 50% accuracy in Week 3 when he only posted four predictions about his main tier, BW. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on how you look at it), we can only conclude at 82% statistical significance that Finchinator is worse than an ape at predicting SPL matches. There's still an 18% chance our ape outperformed Finch purely by chance.

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I wasn't quite finished with my investigation. I asked Finchinator what it takes to be considered a good prediction poster. Would a 55% prediction success rate suffice? Higher? Lower?

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In order to be a good prediction poster, you need to correctly predict 65%? A tall task indeed. If we take this 65% requirement and run a statistical test for "Is Finchinator a good prediction poster?", we can conclude with over 99.99% certainty that he is not a good prediction poster. Over 5 standard deviations of certainty!

The Finchinator Challenge

Finch, there are the facts my man. Numbers don't lie. Here's my challenge to you:

First, post better predictions than an ape (>50% correct rate)

Second, finish the season better than an ape (>50% overall for the season)

I'll even let you edit that week 6 video if you need to. Conduct your analysis. Crunch the numbers. Give it your best shot. Good luck!
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I'm home Ape
 
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