Smogon Premier League XVI - Week 1

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personal highlights:

RBY OU: Serpi vs Gefährlicher Random - top 2 rby in the pool so should be a fun watch, big fan of felix's playstyle in this tier

ADV OU: Pak vs ArcticBreeze - ive been tryna draft pak in adv for the past 3 years so ive been a believer for a long time... mini breeze is no slouch either so lets see if pak can beat the son after losing to dad, feel like this game will set the pace for both their seasons

SM OU: Tace vs c0mp - tace has an unholy knack for winning in sm and c0mp had a pretty incredible showing last year, contrary to popular opinion i rly love sm so im very excited for this one, particularly looking forward to what zom and tigers sm cook up teamwise

GSC OU: BIHI vs Don Eduardo - big kenix fan so should be a good one vs a strong opponent

good luck to those playing their debut games and go sharks!
 
One highlight from each series (obii)

SV OU: clean vs Pais
Clean and pais in my books are two players I would have ranked very similarly. Both are coming off phenomenal recent tour showings with clean’s OLT finals and masters top 32, and Pais’ combined 11-5 between WCOP and SCL. I also consider both clean and pais to be pretty no-nonsense when it comes to team selection so I think it’s safe to say that this game will most likely come down to who plays better between the two demons. While I would probably rate the OLT finals as the strongest showing amongst the 4 I am referencing, clean is yet to have a good team tour showing -- with only a 3-5 prior SPL and an 0-2 in SCL. I am interested in seeing if he can convert his strong BO3 individual tournament success into a different setting with another chance or if he is really only a bo3 warrior. Going to give a small edge to Pais week 1 but I could see myself very realistically writing this very differently if this were a week 9 matchup.
SV OU: Jytcampbell vs Mada
The hype following Jyt in these tournaments has been a complete glow up in the last year. With an average SPL+WCOP combined showing and then an out-of-nowhere team carry on the Dynamos despite starting from the bench has led a lot of people to believing in Jyt – especially his manager obii. I know obii’s confidence in Jyt is through the roof because he approached me before the draft about making a “no touch” deal on Jyt. On the other side is Mada, who has steadily throughout the year been building his own reputation towards being a tier 1 OU player. Similarly to Jyt in SCL, Mada was thrust into the Tyrants lineup last year following a few bans and was one of the strongest carry factors in helping them cross the finish line. A solid SCL and good finishes in other smaller forum tours is helping him build his reputation towards being that tier 1 player he is just short of being. While I think both players still have a way to go, the 2024 glow-up matchup is a good enough reason to consider this a highlight game between the two. Slight edge to Mada since he has been solely SV OU focused for a longer period of time between the two.
ORAS OU: MichaelDerBeste2 vs Garay oak
Michael vs Garay in ORAS in 2025 is just kind of a funny match up to me. Michael has consistently proven himself to be one of the best generational talents we will ever lay our eyes on. Garay has shown instances of brilliance here and there throughout the years in a behemoth of different tiers. ORAS is not the tier I would have realistically expected either player to start in, and I would be shocked to see either one really play out a 9 week season of ORAS, so it works out nicely that their teams can face week 1. Piggybacking off that, the last time I saw either in an ORAS only focused setting was the 2023 ORAS invitational, in which Michael had a deep run to top 6 and garay was eliminated at 1-2. There isn’t much more recent ORAS data to go off of than this (besides Michael’s masters win of course), again speaking to the fact that I just find it kind of funny that this is the tier and week we see these two players match up. Gonna favor Michael for just having historically better showings in the tier, and not knowing much about Garay’s ORAS quality.
DPP OU: Dridri457 vs We Three Kings
Dridri and W3K were ironically the only other two DPP players I was considering buying besides Malekith, so I am very invested in seeing how the week 1 showdown goes. They represent very opposite sides of the pokemon player spectrum to me, too. Dridri is young and enthusiastic, always seems like he’s just happy to be finally given a chance to prove himself with the big dogs. His showing last year was very strong and I have reason to believe he can play at a similar or even higher level than he reached last season. W3K on the other hand is coming off of a long hiatus, maybe because he has gotten bored of simply spectating and armchairing games. He was a strong player in his prime and I think seeks to prove that skill is skill and a long break like his won’t matter in a tier like DPP. Just feels like a very opposites clashing type game even if this narrative is all in my head. Gonna favor dridri just because there are more recent results to go off of indicating he knows his shit in this format.
SV OU: S1nnohConfirm3d vs Storm Zone
S1nnoh and Storm Zone week one makes for a nice tigers reunion battle. Similarly to what I wrote above, I think there is a very obvious clash between the two players and how they approach tournaments. Storm is the ultimate grinder, never having less than 10 active ladder alts across SV OU and the masters’ generations. He has seen it all and built it all in this generation. S1nnoh on the other hand is more of a lazy genius – my guy just shows up with a comfortable team one of his teammates provides him with, outplays his opponent all game, and drops some banter in the post game chat (when he wins, of course). It worked pretty well for him last season largely in part because of Storm’s support, so it will be interesting to see if the Classiest OU core is able to support him adequately in finding teams that match his style. I am biased towards wanting storm to win so I will obviously bold him here.
 
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SV OU: Niko vs Fusien

SV OU: Lily vs myjava - Personal SV highlight. java has established himself as a near top player and Lily has shown numerous flashes of brilliance in OU, too. Be it bringing SubCMPsyshockFlying Iron Valiant into stall in SPL or rocking MolaLokix before it was the hip metagame choice in SCL, I think Lily's OU vision is strong and stands out. Java is certainly the more proven of the two in the tier though and I like how his season projects. The Tyrants have a knack for doing well in SV and that showed last year, but they do lack the proven in-house support they had. In return, they have another year of experience for java+Mada AND a large group of SV players on their roster. I respect the approach they took during the auction here and I think their SV preparation will still be strong given this drafting approach. SV is a generation where being active is necessary to keep up and they have a lot of motivated dudes internally. Lily builds her own squads and feels things out exceptionally well herself. She was quick to stand out in her SPL debut and actually has never lost an SPL game (small sample obviously). I do think her price was ridiculously low, I do project her to be a 5-6 win starter, and I do rate her higher than most, but java is really good at team selection and even better at play. His endgames feel more polished than most and it is evident java keeps up with the tier whenever he plays in big tournaments. Predicting this will be Lily's first SPL loss, but should be a banger.

SV OU: Jytcampbell vs Mada - Drinking Jyt kool-aid after SCL, but both finish positive.
SV OU: Attribute vs vk
SS OU: TDNT vs Metallica126

BW OU: elodin vs SoulWind - A classic BW pairing. The two combine for 134 SPL BW games across 17 different campaigns (10 for SW, 7 for elodin). SoulWind has always been the top dog in BW and I think having a fresh season allows him to do a lot that may end up prepared for more later on. You have to respect bulky teams from him more than anyone arguably, but there is no saying when he could break out any of a couple different offensive styles either. elodin is at worst 40/60 against anyone in BW and a clear second tier option (at worst) in any BW pool, but he did seem more passionate about DPP last year and this sadly is the hardest opening draw in the tournament. What to watch for has to be SoulWind's team: will he fall back on the core competency with bulky teams? Feel like we have seen a few more stall/semi-stall sightings from him in modern BW, but he is a target for Magic Guard, Trick, obnoxious breakers, etc., especially if people are willing to cut some corners when building for him. I could see SoulWind starting off with something more proactive to combat this, but I definitely think elodin avoids flimsy Rain or something without durability/clear breaking. Either way, lean SoulWind and probably bolding him until I have a compelling reason not to.

SV OU: Yovan vs aesf
SV OU: Mimikyu Stardust vs hellom
SV OU: Eternal Spirit vs TheFranklin - Will never believe Gama is washed until there is clear proof; I think his Commencement post will not prove to be too worrisome.

SV OU: Hiko vs Nat - Not truly a highlight as we have an SPL debut vs a hiatus return, but I like both of these players this season. Hiko has been working really hard to establish himself and play a variety of styles; I had him for some smaller tours and can vouch to his form in this tier. Sadly, he drew Nat, who seems motivated and I expect will return to early SV status, where she was one of the top players. I could see this being another 6-7 win campaign for Nat if my hunch is correct. The obvious downside and risk is things falling short early and never rebounding due to the time off or wavering motivation, but with xavgb and a seemingly motivated team arround her, I really love the fit. Curious what she comes up with in this tier, too, as Nat is one to build her own teams.

SS OU: SpookyZ vs RaiZen1704

BW OU: Monai vs Rewer - Conflicted here as I have gulped down the full container of Monai kool-aid at record speed pre-season, but Rewer had a strong 2024 and is the conventional favorite. Monai has done very well in smaller tournaments and showed great range in his teams. I have seen him win with everything short of stall and, while there is an emphasis on bulky-offense, he can bring out a lot of different Pokemon and cores within it all. I think he also is much better at picking teams into specific opponents and playing end-games than he was during his 2-7 debut; pair this with the support of BW veteran Raiza and, in my opinion, Monai is a dark horse of this BW field. Rewer has been fine historically and has very crafty support in Brine, but even he will admit he never popped off in SPL BW yet.

SV OU: pdt vs lax
SV OU: Laroxyl vs Danny

SV OU: Fogbound Lake vs emforbes - Really enjoy watching emforbes play and I think his teams/games will continue to be exciting this season -- the core of him and lax could really pop off. His SCL was below where I would expect him, but seeing him on ladder and throughout OLT has been cool. Obviously a strong overall player across formats, too, with a strong sheet record despite the recent 3-6. Fogbound is the real highlight for me here though -- what are we getting here? Is he going to be close to his SCL peak or will we see him bottom out in OU? I genuinely do not know him well and we have not teamed before, so it is a big question mark to me. He could be one of the best or worst in the pool, and I would not be shocked either way. Bolding emforbes for now just because I have more trust there, but curious overall.

SV OU: oldspicemike vs bhkg
SS OU: ChrisPBacon vs Hayburner

BW OU: watashi vs MeEsSm - I do not know what to make of watashi in BW. I do not think he is super passionate about the tier, I think he mainly plays it during a small handful of tournaments, and I am not positive as to how much he follows it during other times. This metagame differs from last SPL's, but it is not super hard to make up the difference at least. What I can say is watashi is a consistently good, but not quite elite, performer in officials who is capable of building his own teams and varying playstyles. This alone probably puts him at a decent record in a shaky BW pool so long as his timing and selection is not bad. I wonder if he ends up elsewhere eventually as I would honestly already rank mars similarly overall though and I think watashi can plug holes that pop up in a variety of generations. Keep your eyes open for mars to make a big impact one way or another though as I rate mars quite high. For watashi though, I think he may be running into MeEsSm at an awkward time. MeEsSm has a much smaller sample and probably a lot more motivation to find a way, especially with his debut being on a team with strong management and high expectations. mars probably knows MeEsSm decently well, but having no SPL or similar data to go off of does mean a lot. I see this as a coming out party for MeEsSm personally, who I expect will use something proactive and look to get ahead earlier on with aggressive plays unless ABR has already corrupted him (or, even worse, Excal has, in which case anything is possible). He is very active in the tier, he will come up with something suited for the occasion, and he will know how to navigate virtually any early game just from recent experience and prep. MeEsSm's resume is kind of lacking for an SPL starter, but what has convinced me has been how comfortable he is taking risks in battle, which I think will translate here. What worries me and what could stand in the way of his first victory is late games -- they have plagued MeEsSm before in invitational and the guy is probably going to feel nervous. Hopefully he stays calm and makes the right decisions, but I definitely think that will be a defininig factor in his rookie season either way. I will bank on him keeping steady and living up to my high hopes for his teambuilding with my vote of confidence here.

SV OU: LpZ vs 3d - I like 3d coming into this SPL a lot. His level of effort is very high and this is a format that is going to reward that. LpZ is a fine opponent, but his best days have been in lower tiers and it is a mismatch in terms of OU comfort given this. I think if 3d comes out with something fresh, then his experience and confidence will make a big difference. LpZ feels like a candidate to have a better second half as he gets more experience playing and preparing in the tier, but a win here could be a sign that he is ahead of schedule and could go positive. Just think 3d is better in OU in particular and will be smart approaching the game, especially on a loaded Tigers team filled with good compliments to 3d.

SV OU: S1nn0hC0nfirm3d vs Storm Zone
SV OU: leng loi vs JJ09LIE
SV OU: DAHLI vs DugZa
SS OU: damien the genius vs Ox the Fox - Ox seemed to start returning to form late last year. 11.5k felt light and I expect him to pop off tbh

BW OU: dice vs Sergio Aguero - I do not know what to feel about Sergio quite yet. He had a really strong 2024 that was capped off with a circuit championship over Sergi, who was arguably the best BW player for a few months between Invitational and Circuit. Sergio's range does not feel quite as established as someone like dice, who he faces, but his plays are clearly at an SPL level. Honestly, I came into the tournament kind of low on Sergio, ranked him near the bottom, and was not sure he would sign-up or be in the field before he joined late after winning circuit, so maybe I just was not fully in the know or maybe I am a hater. But I have done some digging since and am honestly impressed. His HO game in finals against Sergi was downright dominant as he never gave up tempo and sequenced perfectly, he had a similar showing against Raiza prior, and it is hard to poke too many holes into his performance. I do not see him loading anything too bulky here and I wonder if dice will capitalize on that though or if Sergio will expand his comfort zone -- these type of adjustments fascinate me personally. As for dice, if he is in the zone, you gotta bold him here and against most. Preparing for him is nearly impossible, he is no slouch in the builder, and his style just fits the generation so well. I think dice is someone who is most likely to advance the tier with either new cores/strategies altogether or sets nobody else would even consider, so I am hyped for all of his games by default. Will be cool to see what both come up with here.
 
Won vs Crying, gg

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ou-814393?p2

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It seems atleast to me that the administration is investing a lot to the viewer experience this SPL and its great. Just suggesting that some kind of a spoiler-filter would be great in the first message of this thread or in the schedule spreadsheet so that I don't immediatelly see the results if I want to watch the game. Also is there a way to watch the games live? I don't know how this works
 
Veexliat said:
It seems atleast to me that the administration is investing a lot to the viewer experience this SPL and its great. Just suggesting that some kind of a spoiler-filter would be great in the first message of this thread or in the schedule spreadsheet so that I don't immediatelly see the results if I want to watch the game. Also is there a way to watch the games live? I don't know how this works
Click to expand...
As a career replay watcher I would recommend The replay thread as it lists all games without results. You can also check out the tours discord where you can set up notifications for live games and replays are listed there too spoiler free
 
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