Smogon Snake Draft 2018: LC Discussion


Snake Draft Introduction

Yahallo fellow Little Cuppers! The second iteration of SSD is near, use this thread to discuss about the tour, metagame trends, replays, predictions etc. I will be updating this thread weekly for replays and such.



Potential LCers:

Goldenrod Gliders: trash
Terminus Taipans: Rodriblutar, Kingler12345, Plas
Berry Forest Bushmasters: Corporal Levi, shiloh
Shinto Ruin Serpents: teal6, talkingtree
Cianwood Cobras: jake
Lake of Rage Leviathans: Finchinator, OP, KingKdot
Lanakila Nagas: Kushalos, Heysup, HT
Black City Mambas: dcae, miltankmilk
Sootopolis Sidewinders: Sken, tko
Ambrette Astrotias: Tricking, Dundies



[BUSH] Corporal Levi: 8-1
[SERP] teal6: 7-4
[TAIP] Kingler12345: 2-2
[SIDE] Sken: 2-2
[ASTR] Dundies / Eternal Sprit: 3-5 / 1-0
[NAGA] Heysup: 5-6
[COBR] jake: 4-5
[LEVI] OP: 4-6
[MAMB] dcae: 1-3
[GLID] trash: 1-3
 
Last edited:

Merritt

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So the two teams that are vaguely worrying, as always, are teams without a clear backup for LC. A mildly interesting note is that both are in the Sun division for Stage 1.

While trash has internal help in the form of the illustrious Manager “ggggd” Pablo, the backup if trash falls off the back of a pickup truck is somewhat worrying. I know that lax knows his way around LC, but the rest of the team I don’t know if I can see playing LC with the big names in the Sun division. Whatever backup there is will definitely have team support from Pablo or whoever they get to help who wasn’t drafted, and don’t get me wrong there are definitely good Pokemon players in general on that team, but they’re probably hoping trash doesn’t have a nervous breakdown because their plan B looks threadbare from here.

The Cobras also only really have one little cupper and granted Jake is a hell of an LC player, but again it’s very similar to the Gliders. Manager who knows his way around LC (this time cs) and no clear backup if Jake falls into a sinkhole or gets shanghaied to Guam.

Moving away from the Sun division, the Moon division has some players I’m really excited to see match up. dcae has been riding hot for a while now, Kinglernumbers is somewhat underrated for the actual skill he does have, Dundies is a PU main, teal is just one of those players who really does know the game well, and I still believe OP has a strong case for the best LC player right now. They’ve also all got teammates who know LC to a good degree and can help them prepare, so I’m expecting the Moon division to have some of the most interesting games.

Not too much more to really discuss until the weeks start, so best of luck to all the players!
 

sister

Banned deucer.
Damn trash telling it how it is
Anyway my 2 cents:

It's often hard to make predictions for team tours focusing solely on the 1v1s because, after all, it is a team tour. And while no team stands out as the obvious victor, unlike some other LC teams (*cough* *cough* squirtles), it's important to focus on the team as a whole and what each member brings to the table. With that in mind, I think I'd put my money on the Terminus Taipans taking it all. While their team name may not be as good as the Nagas or Mambas their line-up is looking pretty stellar. In general you've got August and bro fist, two very accomplished players. But on the LC side you've got Kingler12345 and Plas. Even if Plas doesn't end up battling much (imo Kingler would be the safer choice for most matches) his knowledge of the metagame and team building skills are way passed proven. If trash's above predictions are correct, and my knowledge of how the Snake works doesn't elude me, Kingler would be up against teal6, OP, dcae and Dundies. Obviously all are great LC players but are match-ups I think Kingler could take. Plas may be underrated in comparison to other LC threats, but I definitely could also see him pulling some clutch wins if he needs to sub in. Even then, the team has some other great players that, with Plas + Kinglers teambuilding/meta knowledge, may even be able to pull off some wins. If I was into gambling I'd put it on the Taipans winning it all.

I know I just spent the last wall of text praising the Kingler/Plas core but looking at it in a LC-only lens you definitely cannot rule out the Ambrette Astrotias, even if they have easily the worst name in the tour. Nothing needs to be said about Dundies' run in LC, he is easily one of the best players and is definitely capable of handling every other LC main in the meta. And though Tricking is the only other LC member listed for that team, Hogg, lighthouses and Eternal Spirit have proven themselves strong forces in SM LC, and make for great teammates, even if they themselves are not doing the actual battles.

Black City Mambas are also up there, and not just because they have easily the best name in the tour. dcae is cool and having miltankmilk as a partner is even cooler. Either of those players can make some strong runs imo. Jake may appear to be the only notable LC main of Cianwood Cobras (decent name) but Chill Shadow has had some consistently strong showings in LC tours so there is definitely support there.

Sken and tko share a lot of the same characteristics I mentioned with Kingler/Plas, too. I think both players are around the same skill level so I'm interested to see which ends up doing the bulk of the battles. I'm most excited to see what kind of teams they bring to the table.

I wish I could post more replays but finding good replays from tours is such a pain in the ass.

Anyway I spent like 2 hours on this post that is just me musing and I wanna go to bed. Definitely excited for these match-ups and I can't wait to see how it turns out. Competition is certainly going to be tight, and even if my predictions are wrong I'm confident LC is in for a great snake.
 

Corporal Levi

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On taranteeeno's request, a brief introduction to each of the players -

Goldenrod Gliders:
trash!

trash is one of the less proven starters of the draft. He's generally looked solid across exhibition and LCPL, with positive records in LC for both and solid performances playing wise outside of one or two games. However, his big claim to fame is as a teambuilder; it was his builds that carried his current snake draft manager, ggggd, to a 6-4 record last snake and to the 2017 circuit finals. After spending hours upon hours each week pouring his heart and soul into building the majority of the Bunnelby's teams during LCPL (which he did NOT care about, by the way), it's become clear that he may be the single strongest teambuilder in the USM metagame. He also has the support of ggggd himself, but pablo is a notoriously poor builder so I don't really see this being worth considering.

However, trash does not have experience at the top level of play; the question is whether he will be able to adjust to the nerves of a trophy team tournament. If he is unable to do so, then the LC slot for the gliders will be in a rough spot, as none of their other players have serious LC experience.

Terminus Taipans:
kingler12345, rodriblutar, plas

Frequently ranked not only among the greatest LCers, but the greatest Pokemon players alive, the loaf is the best thing since sliced bread. Kingler12345 was the first LCer to see a good amount of success when he won the LC Open of 2015, and he has continued to impress over the years, most recently going undefeated in LCPL. This will be his fourth team tour playing LC after SPL 7 and 8 and the previous snake draft, and although his records in all of these were poor, things will change this year; his skill ceiling shoots for the stars but goes far beyond.

The taipans also have good LC players that don't click fake out twice in a row, though it's unlikely that they will actually be playing LC. Plasmagby looked rather disappointing in LCPL after being touted as one of the LC community's most promising new players, but nevertheless has a strong grasp of the metagame and has shown that he has what it takes to play at a high level through his spring seasonal performances. Rodriblutar looked fairly solid during LCPL and is generally ranked among the best non-LC mains at LC.

Berry Forest Bushmasters:
me, shiloh

we love little cup

Shinto Ruin Serpents:
teal6, talkingtree

This year, teal6 will (most likely) finally be able to play LC in a trophy team tour. He has seen some LC success in the past, with a semifinals LC Open run last year and a decent overall LCPL record over his three seasons; more importantly, he is an accomplished tour player overall in both UU and RBY. While teal has far less LC experience than the other LC starters, he will have Starmaster's support, who has been one of the top LCers for several years now; this should be enough for teal to find success anyways.

The other serpent with significant LC experience is talkingtree. Though he only has a mediocre LCPL record to show, talkingtree has shown significant interest in LC in the past and likely won't be a pushover if he does need to play the tier.

Cianwood Cobras:
jake

Though his LC debut in SPL 8 was rather underwhelming, jake has stuck around to become one of LC's more valuable contributors. He has proven himself to be a strong competitor, having cemented himself as a capable builder and solid player across LCPL 6 and 7 despite ending with only a neutral record in both due to some misfortune. Both he and his manager, Chill Shadow, made it to the top 6 of the LC circuit; similarly to trash's case, Chill Shadow is generally not known for his teambuilding (though still much better than pablo), but he can still serve as a good sparring partner. Unlike trash, there aren't too many concerns regarding jake's ability to perform under pressure, as he has SPL experience from his NU days.

Lake of Rage Leviathans:
op, finchinator, kingkdot

I feel like I call OP consistent in every prediction, and it's been completely true recently, managing to start off 0-4 in both the last snake and spl 8. Along with Kingler and Heysup, OP is one of the few who has been starting in LC since spl 7, and this will remain the only season he went positive in a trophy team tour if he doesn't turn things around this year. He staged a partial comeback in both snake and spl 8, though, and outside of those and the No Johns minitour, OP has consistently been tearing it up. He was a quarterfinalist for last year's LC Open and this year's swiss, as well as the winner of the spring seasonal; his team tour records aren't barren, either, having finished the latest LCPL with a 7-2 record for an all time LCPL record of 26-11. OP will be coming into the season looking like a favourite, so let's see if he can start doing well from the get-go this time around.

There is little reason to sub OP out even if he looks bad early on, considering his tendency to grow more powerful both as the season drags on and as the week approaches Sunday, but he definitely has strong LC players to test with on his team. Finchinator has been moderately involved with LC for some time; he had a strong performance for the last two LCPLs, made it fairly deep into the spring seasonal, and has seen success in at least one minitour. kingkdot beat me p badly for lcpl, probably the best bw lcer right now

Lanakila Nagas:
kushalos, heysup, ht

During his glory days in ORAS, heysup would frequently find himself first on lists of the best LCers, and between his veteran status and a fantastic SPL 7 performance, it wasn't hard to see why. Though his record in SPL 8 wasn't as impressive, he looked very solid as a player and a builder nonetheless, and his status as a top LCer stayed intact. There were claims that he was washed up for LCPL 6, and then again for the first snake, but both times, he came back looking reasonably strong. These claims resurfaced once more for LCPL 7, though, and this time, it looked like they have been proven true; he ended the season 0-2 in SM LC, and neither of his losses were very pretty. It remains to be seen if he can get back in shape should he start this season.

Kushalos hasn't seen as much LC success after his finals LC open run in 2016; however, he has been a mainstay in LCPLs for several years now. In addition, he has played other lower tiers for team trophy tours; while his knowledge of the current metagame will be below average, a passable amount of LC experience and good mons ability overall should be enough for him to succeed if he starts over Heysup.

HT reached LC Open semifinals with trash's teambuilding back in 2016, but to be honest he's looked kind of terrible as an LCer otherwise. He will likely have trash's support on top of his own team's on the off chance that he has to play the tier.

Black City Mambas:
dcae, miltankmilk

For the sake of keeping any hype surrounding him, we will assume that dcae's LC career did not exist before 2017. dcae is one of LC's most successful new users, having reached finals for both spring seasonal and swiss.

milktankmilk looked very strong during LCPL 6, and managed to make a bit of a comeback after a rough start during LCPL 7. He and dcae teamed together for that, so they should have some synergy working together.

Sootopolis Sidewinders:
sken, tko

Sken is incredible. I'd consider giving him a 10 on a ladder ranking, but I accidentally typed a 1. whoops

His confidence understandably crushed after having been benched for blarajan last snake, tko has since quit LC several times, and can frequently be found claiming that LC and/or Pokemon sucks. However, when he plays at his best, the moments of brilliance that allowed him his undefeated record during LCPL 6 manage to shine through. Should he get around the nerves that made him fumble during the first round of last snake, he will make for a dangerous sub if sken is unable to play.

Ambrette Astrotias:
dundies, tricking

A fairly good performance last snake, a gorgeous LC Champion banner, and an 8-1 record in LCPL all point toward dundies being one of the best LCers of today. He attempts to quit every two weeks, alternating between switching over to a Real tier or just quitting mons as a whole, but never succeeds, because the lc community loves dundies and dundies loves the lc community. By recent records alone, dundies may be going into this snake draft looking like the single strongest player.

On the other hand, tricking had no problem ditching the little cup community for bigger things, I guess he only liked fran. He was certainly one of the stronger LCers for a period of time in ORAS, and has at least kept up in LCPLs + subbing in for LC in trophy tours since then. An extremely successful tour player overall, tricking will have a much easier time getting into the current LC metagame than comparably accomplished players if dundies needs to play another tier.
 
effort post cuz my last one was garbage but i actually care about this tour:

i think LC, to many people's surprise, is gonna be a big hit this go around. all that talk about "low quality" of LCPL was mainly due to the fact that, for whatever reason, literally like 85% of the good players were concentrated on literally two teams. our team did not put in an iota of effort until the finals and sort of even then which also resulting in my first heartbreaking LCPL loss ever.

that said, the talent pool is pretty good here, all things considered. i know i'm going to be ranked either last or near there, but, and I hope this doesn't come across as haughty, it should say something about the relative quality of a pool of players if the one who has the most playoff experience is coming dead last in the consideration.

i know a lot of these dudes pretty well - i consider levi an absolute powerhouse of a player so of course fucking tony had to get him lol. but, genuinely, i think he's super strong and will perform exactly to expectations, which is to say, very well.

kingler is immensely talented and i really am looking forward to playing him. great team presence, really good guy, overall a very solid, very good pick.

dundies is the one i have my eye on a lot. he too is a fantastic teammate and really makes you feel like the man when you're playing, so i think he'll contribute to a strong atmosphere. he's a player with a lot of other experience as well across multiple tiers (which most LC players in this tour don't necessarily have, mostly being confined just to LC) so i know he knows "pokemon" well and not just "LC" well.

i can comment less on the other players because i'm not AS familiar with them, but i've been doing my scouting and everyone seems up to par well enough. on my end, i have starmaster backing me up as always, but i think we're at a new level. whereas levi and co. are probably used to me HLing star five minutes before my scheduled match begging for a team, i've been inspired since the northeast run to the WCOP win and seeing great players like ABR and finch and co. working their ass off to go into matches in tip top shape.

in stark defiance of what i have done the previous 9 team tours i have played on smogon, i now am actively trying to build and come up with cool ideas and test on my own, but im fortunate enough to have an absolute veteran who would probably be ranked #1 or #2 in this list if he were not tourbanned (cwl) backing me up every step of the way and star's my best buddy anyway so we got chemistry. i'm looking forward to bringing some new meta shit, i think approaching this tier with an outside eye can open a lot of possibilities (no, not just larvitar) that can work out and i've already invented a few new techs that i think are really neat. with star to pin them down it'll be a blast of a tour.

oh kush is also really good, i forgot he's playing LC but i scrolled up and remembered. so he'll be a hard battle. also OP is quite good too but i beat him last time i played so, by the transitive property, i am the better LC player. well, that's all, peace.
 
power ranks are now out, and can be found here: https://www.smogon.com/articles/snake2-power-rankings

there's some neat stuff actually in these ranks, and while im not going to do "my own" ranks what i'd like to talk about is specifically my thoughts on each individual player on the list, what they've got on the big stage in the past, and primarily what their biggest challenges/expectations are going to be throughout this tournament

1. corporal levi - team tour record: 5-3
i said it in my preview above, but i think levi's an incredible player. his spot is very well deserved on this list and is entirely uncontroversial. that said, i'm approaching these reviews more with a look at how a given player's presence will effect not only his SSD performance in LC, but rather, a more holistic approach.

levi will get a good result in this tournament, almost certainly. knowing him, he isn't likely to suffer from nerves terribly much, so only having one major team tour and no trophy tours in his past probably isn't even in his head the way it will be for some of the other players on this list. he doesn't care if smogtours thinks he "deserves" to be there and really cares more about LC than Tournaments/Snake, which isn't the case for a lot of newcomers in the team tour scene. this will be one of his biggest strengths as i think he'll be able to play up to his own ability constantly throughout the tournament.

that said, in terms of what he adds to the team, this will likely also be a fairly big negative. levi, for all that i respect him, has that one hilarious log where he refers to "level 100 players" as if it were a derogatory term. i think that's funny as hell but also a bit telling - the dude isn't going to be testing / building OU, and likely won't contribute a ton to the jerk. that said, ABR probably has that covered all on his own, and ik that tony and abr chose him very specifically, so as long as he wins, that's likely all they care about.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TOUR: getting the wins necessary to justify lack of contribute in the whole. levi is not the sort of player that will drag up his teammates by their neck to cross the finish line for the trophy. he IS the type of player who could realistically lose 0 or 1 time this entire tournament. he will need to make sure he falls in the latter group to really live up to the hype, but, if anyone will, i think it's him.

2. OP - team tour record: 12-14
admittedly i know less about OP than i should. the LC community, fwiw, rates him incredibly highly and he has put up good numbers in the past. his team tour record is about average, but is a bit low for someone ranked this high on the list. unfortunately i can't comment much about his mentality, i am genuinely unsure if he will be pressured by his ranking and the relative expectations to live up to the big stage with hundreds of viewers and a passionate team that'll be surely desperate to win. i can say from experience that being expected to be a big time winner for a given team is a tough position and one that's hard to live up to.

in terms of overall contribution to the team, probably fairly similar to levi in that i don't think OP does much in any other tier. his LCPL showing was incredible, though, so i get the feeling that he has a degree of fire in him to win when his back is against the wall.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TOUR: proving that his ranking wasn't an undeserved perusal of recent, non-trophy tournament records and that he can live up to the billing thrust upon him by the mainers

3. Kingler12345 - team tour record: 14-14
the loaf is back at it again this snake draft. after a disappointing performance last time around, i think it would be a foolish move to think that will happen twice. kingler is genuinely a very good player and one that a betting man would consider odds on favorite to end with a solid record.

kingler contributes a ton to a team environment, will be genuinely fun to hang out with and will spur his team on to achieve more, so i think in that regard, he is an incredibly good pick, especially amongst the LC community which can often have fairly isolated players representing the tier on the big stage. kingler is no stranger to the environments and has proven time and time again to be a favorite so i applaud his choice.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TOUR: overcoming a lack of notable finishes and disappointing records in playoff scenarios, aka, winning when it really matters. kingler has the goods and is on an incredibly good team almost everyone would consider locked in playoff material - his regular season will be important, sure, but i think how he does when the format switches to weeks and, potentially, in the finals is a much more important part of how he is viewed in retrospect.

4. Dundies - team tour record: 5-4
dundies enters this tournament in a peculiar state when viewed with an "outsider" lens. many tournament regulars might not be as familiar with him as they should, but personally, i think he is a dynamite player w/ a really good impact on a given team. his previous outing was fairly average which i'm sure he'll admit, but provided he doesn't have a sophomore slump, i expect a slightly better record this time around at the least.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TOUR: proving once and for all he should be a mainstay in team tournaments through definitive, outright wins

5. Heysup - team tour record: 32-35
by far the most veteran player in the lineup, heysup falls to a pretty mediocre 5th rank placing for someone of his stature. again, unfortunately, not a player i know terribly well, so i apologize for not having too much in the way of insight. however his last SSD performance was quite good, and i think he will be eager to repeat. whether or not everyone else will let him is a different matter

i dont really believe too much about "motivation" to be frank - good players are good players, and on his day i've seen heysup be an incredible player. so there's no excuses to be had here, either he does what he's capable of, in which case, he'll have been a very great value pick, or he slumps and gives more fodder to the anticrusts. for the sake of the tournament i hope we see the brilliant version game in game out

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TOUR: proving he's still got it

6. zeb - team tour record: 19-20
im not calling you jake. that said its kinda funny LC has two former head TDs starting this year lol.

i love zeb and he was a great person to interact with, but i think this might be a make or break tournament for him. the PR writeup said it as well, he's known for always being around tours, but never really being the superstar. i think, should zeb want to really push on and get into the spotlight, its time for him to put it up. average performances (relative to the big stage) mean that he will have a lot to prove, and with a starting berth at hand, it's high time to grab the reigns and do it.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TOUR: showing that he shouldn't be "the bench presence" any more and should be a nailed on starter - cementing himself as a mainstay for SPL/WCOP/SSDs in the future. key, dominant wins will be important here, likely even more than the sheer volume of them.

7. dcae - team tour record: 3-5
while performing well in the spring seasonal and stuff is always cool, for me, i don't really necessarily find it comparable. i'll be frank, i didn't even know that those tournaments existed, and personally, only ever play LCPL and LC Open. i imagine a lot of talented players are more or less the same, and tour culture as a whole has, to my knowledge, been hyper concentrated on trophy tours and semi-official team tours. so while the PR likes performance in these one-off circuit tours, i think personally, i don't value them terribly highly.

again, a player i simply don't have a lot of data on. i imagine, though i could be wrong, that after such an extended period gone from the game the nerves might creep back in, or potentially, dcae may not be used to the more intensive pace of smogon team tournaments in 2018 compared to yesteryear. i don't think its really the environment where you can roll up with whatever, do minimal scouting and expect to pump out good records without an absurd amount of talent, and this SSD should be no different. that said, i really have no idea if he's the type to put in that effort, nor where his ceiling is as a player, so he's probably my biggest question mark of this entire tournament.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TOUR: acclimating to an environment where your opponent's resident team tryhard will know everything about your teams and playstyle including how many times you run timid on magnemite as opposed to modest or whatever. then, subsequently overcoming that and keeping up with big names that should ideally be incredibly motivated.

8. sken - team tour record: 8-13
sken's a really nice guy and one i enjoy interacting with. i think he'll definitely be a positive team presence, but this is one of the cases where i actually almost fully agree with his PR ranking. a player who shows really really good highs with weird, but cool teams, but also some less impressive lows. sken's had a fairly high degree of exposure to the whole tour scene, so i think if he has a good mindset, he can do well, but i find a lot of myself in him in that i think he can vary quite wildly from game to game.

again, i hope to see the high version for some sick ass replays.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TOUR: keeping up a solid level of performance that i know he's capable of, or, in turn, coming back from a loss or two without tilting

9. teal6 - team tour record: 17-16
bit weird but i figure it'd be fair to give an objective look at myself.

i think that i lack the metagame knowledge almost everyone else has in droves, which is going to be a big problem for me particularly in the beginning as i get used to playing this meta on the big stage. my personal philosophy is that pokemon isn't an intensive game, its really a combination of sheer talent + metagame familiarity, and while im OK in the former i think i'm lacking a lot in the latter, so that'll be a big hurdle to overcome.

i'm not a huge tester and can't contribute to the other tiers really at all so i'm useless as hell there.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TOUR: similar to sken, hitting the high levels that i'm definitely capable of based on past LCPL runs, past LC Open runs and some past team tours. grinding back to respectable results if things dont go my way earlier on in the tournament.

10. trash - team tour record: 0-0
our only debutant, trash may be a bit disheartened to have been ranked last. but hey, at least it means you don't have anything weighing you down! that said, again a player i'm just simply not familiar with, but i hope being a complete fresh face doesn't hurt his mentality. SG is pretty good at LC too, test with him and stuff.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS TOUR: very simple - proving it was not a mistake to draft him and getting picked up again come SPL time.
 
teal's analysis of almost everyone seems to be pretty much spot-on for me. to OP's part i could probably add that his mentality seems to be fairly strong regardless of bad starts, as evidenced by his last 2 tournaments (where he started off like 0-4? or something and ended up with passable records)
 
Nothing too surprising in the rankings but I do personally disagree with many of the exact placements. The one that sticks out most to me is the good poster above, teal. I feel the metagame knowledge aspect is very overrated, especially given he has one of the very best LC teambuilders/players supporting. This combo got to open semis last year and went 2-0 in SM in this LCPL. I expect good things and would've absolutely placed teal higher if I was one of the rankers

One thing I found interesting was the sorta top 4 thing going on, with 4 of us having a mean rating in the 2's and then a jump to the next best rank at 5. Most tiers have a pretty defined "best" player whereas it's rather disputed for LC. I think I'm rated too highly, I've never had particularly impressive records against top level players, I just farm the noobs in less prestigious tours well. Kingler might've been my pick for #1, when he cares and puts the effort in, I find him the scariest. I think Levi is less consistent as a player/generally lower skill ceiling, but is also far more threatening than everyone else as a builder; there's absolutely nobody better at nailing team matchup than him. Dundies of course also plays extremely well and I gained a lot more respect for his building style this LCPL. You could easily argue a case for any of these guys to be the best LC player right now.

I'm excited for this, in particular I enjoy the meta trend shifts we usually see in these things. kinda weird looking back at last snake's games, we used way too fucking much snubbull and kabuto
 

dcae

plaza athénée
is a defending SCL Championis a Past SCL Champion
Possible matchups for Phase 1 and 2.

Sun Divison:
Heysup vs. jake
Heysup vs. Sken
jake vs. Corporal Levi
Corporal Levi vs. trash
trash vs. Sken
Heysup vs. Corporal Levi
Heysup vs. trash
jake vs. trash
jake vs. Sken
Corporal Levi vs. Sken

Moon Division:
dcae vs. Dundies
dcae vs. Kingler12345
Dundies vs. teal6
teal6 vs. OP
OP vs. Kingler12345
dcae vs. teal6
dcae vs. OP
Dundies vs. OP
Dundies vs. Kingler12345
teal6 vs. Kingler12345

Some thoughts I had abt the tournament that I shared with some ppl but I think the two divisions are super interesting. Sun division has a lot of the more interesting builders and I'm no doubt sure the prep/stuff they will put out will be wild asf. Moon division has 3 of the top 4 ranked LCers and though it prob won't be as wild as Sun division due to the historically more standard building, it should enjoy some of the highest level lc matches.

I think an aspect that hasn't been talked about enough is how some players will face each other potentially up to 3 times in the same team tour and twice in the regular season, which adds a different dynamic than previous team tours. It will be interesting to see how this will play out and affect the kinds of games we see as the tournament continues.
 
yahallo! the phase one matchups have been announced.

Sun Division
Heysup vs. jake
Heysup vs. Sken
jake vs. Corporal Levi
Corporal Levi vs. trash
trash vs. Sken

Moon Division
dcae vs. Dundies
dcae vs. Kingler12345
Dundies vs. teal6
teal6 vs. OP
OP vs. Kingler12345

really excited to see these matches mainly levi because of his unique builds during officials. one of the biggest highlight match of this phase is OP vs. Kingler12345. while that game may be the main highlight match, i dont think any of these games are worth missing out! im looking forward to playing in my first offical and starting off with two friends who i looked up to during oras. ill try to update this post for scheduled games, so if you know when a game is please do tell me. feel free to post your thoughts on these matchups and other things as the tour goes on!
 
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https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7lc-392559
gonna give some of my thoughts before/during the game.

during the building process i wanted a solid team that matched up well vs a standard onix balance team, which was what i was expecting. ferrospritz covered many threats while foodig provided momentum and some offensive pressure. i added vully and tirt for another fighting/flying check and ways to beat abra/wingull. my team was weak to mp mag + abusers which unluckily sken brought.

at team preview i like to take my time to see what sets he would possibly have and what my win condition is. i saw that he had mag and knew this was alr a tough mu. the sets i assumed were bj ferro/scarf mp mag/fastfoo/wa onix/otr spritz/z wingull, which i was correct for the most part. my wincon for this game was weakening mag and trying to win with dig + foo.

onto the game (gonna only include the more "important" turns), i led vully and he led foo.
t1: i knocked and he revealed being slowfoo, most likely 15 def as he stayed in.
t4: i got in tirt vs wingull and sr'd since gull isnt a huge threat
t5: most likely z water since he used scald, so i made the midground play expecting it or if foo/ferro to came in
t7-8: was a misplay from me since moonblast killed wingull most of the time and getting chip on mag was important, but i wished and passed to foo
t12-13: i didn't want to risk foo and tirt was basically useless since it got burned
t18-19: debated on hjking again on roost, but like before i didn't want to risk foo and basically lose to ferro/onix
t20-21: same mistake as before not going to foo on mag, since it didnt 2hko at that range
t27-28: after i wished i should have went ferro cause spritz was near useless at this point
t30-31: knocked with ferro to rk with dig, then t31 he fsr dkiss which is a huge misplay (moonblast killed) cause 3 hit bseed into eq killed. having z eq for late game stuff would have been nice (mainly the ability to ohko either ferro/foo/onix) and possibly change the outcome of the game.
+5 252+ SpA Spritzee Moonblast vs. 84 HP / 148+ SpD Eviolite Ferroseed: 11-13 (50 - 59%) --- i was at 45%
t33: was tempted to eq banking on choke (onix mag foo won at that point for him if he just flashed) which he did and the game basically ends here. i also should have went foo instead of vully, but it didn't really matter.

not rly happy with my plays for the most part (played poorly and too passively). if you enjoyed this post and want more (my games and others), im willing to do more if theres enough support! gg sken
 
alright since people liked my previous post just gonna double post and do an analysis on dundies vs teal! ill do an analysis of most games if no one does them after ~24 hours and if im free.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7lc-392009

ill go over my thoughts (what i think the sets are--assuming i never saw the replay/game live--and wincon) on team preview.
teal: most likely z wingull/fastfoo/evio pursuit pawn/scarf bunny/either evio or bj (check dmg to confirm which one) ferro/defensive spritz. the wincon for teal is most likely scarf bunny, using wingull to weaken pawn and foo knocking mons for bunny to clean late game. i like teal's team choice because this abuses the usual dundies teams.

dundies: mareanie/z wingull/evio pawn/fastfoo/lo or evio dig/chespin. p much a typical dundies team. imo this mu seemed v difficult for dundies since there wasn't rly anything that stood out to win with besides weakening everything and trying to win with dig/foo. bunny + gull pressured his team too much, as gull weakens pawn and bunny forces mareanie foo or chespin which means gull comes in for free.


for the game ill go over key turns and how to find out oppen sets and stuff. ***for me i try to set up a game plan early with sets assumed and adjust it as the oppen's sets are revealed
t1-2: fake out dmg on mareanie reveals that he most likely isnt id cause of hp numbers (23 hp tends to be id). teal prob expected knock or scald which ferro doesnt mind too much. mareanie reveals tspikes which is really good vs teal's team since foo/bunny/spritz doesnt appreciate poison dmg.

t6-9: these turns are really important for teal cause he is able to weaken pawn for bunny and remove tspikes + sr from the field without letting poison spread.

t10-14: uturn dmg on dundies' foo revealed that he is 21 hp, which is most likely fastfoo. t12 teal reveals that hes evio ferro and the following turns he predicts amazingly and got hazards up vs foo/pawn. at this point of the game bunny is looking like a huge threat with pawn gone and sr + 2 spikes up. i honestly thought the game was over at this point since spritz and foo pressures everything, weaken mareanie with hazards and constant attacks, and spritz basically wins once gull blows z and teal knocks chespin. he also had pawn + bunny to presssure (assuming one of them was scarf)

t17: (previous turns revealed spritz was bulky cause of dmg rolls and hp #--27 is usually wish) this is a major misplay by teal as spritz walls 4/5 of the remaining mons and ferro wasn't rly needed at this point of the game, it was able to switch in and knock either mareanie or an incoming switchin.

t19: based on sr dmg on wingull, the wingull is 21 hp (not rly important but good to know)

t22: teal should have went bunny as it got a kill, if it was scarf. even if it wasn't, dundies needed wingull to beat mienfoo and should fear qa. also pawn coming in basically revealed it was scarf. i was also told that it was z normal agili tect bunny, which basically won if he got agili off and didnt get burned/dodge hurricane (dundies wouldn't have went for it p sure).

t25-26: i think teal should have just hjk'd or uturn since dundies didn't need chespin (also hjk killed everything bar chespin) and wouldn't risk foo. at t26 dundies gets off a free spike ensuring a favorable roll for diglett vs bunny, if it wasn't lo.

t28-31: foo dies to gull's scald and got rk'd by scarf pawn. dundies reveals scarf dig and cleans with eq late game.
***do you guys prefer spacing or no spacing between turns?


dundies played really well even with a p bad mu and took advantage of teal's misplays during the game. near the end he was able to pressure with gull after killing ferrospritz and made safe but good plays late game to secure the win with scarf dig. teal played the early game amazingly and had some major misplays which ultimately led him to lose. good fight from both side and hope teal recovers from this loss. im looking forward to the games next week :) and mostly my battle vs levi!

if theres anything u guys want me to add in my future posts or anything, pm/vm me! also i hope my fellow little cuppers analyze their games, short or long doesn't matter, cause i would love to hear your thoughts too.
 

dcae

plaza athénée
is a defending SCL Championis a Past SCL Champion
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7lc-393569

im going to put some quick thoughts behind the endgame and a couple other turns bc i noticed ppl in lc discord weren't fully following what happened.

t8 fake out here was not the optimal play, dundies would not have risked his vull getting chipped for free with my foo set unrevealed, i should have knocked here and it would've opened up my endgame much better.

t12 had a feeling it'd be energy ball gastly but since ferro died i didn't really have an opportunity to scout without compromising mienfoos health.

t21 since i was down i had to play super aggressive, uturning there was high risk high reward af

t26-27 the only way i could've won at this point was if dundies assumed i was fastfoo because gastly was unable to ohko his foo set (bc i didnt knock it t8) so him going foo instead of vull was a big bailout for me. from here i lost if dundies used fake out > hjk to ohko my foo so i had to hard gast.

t28 was a clean 50/50 that decided the game, i managed to win it and had foo in, enabling me to either ohko his vull or chip his foo for gastly clean with hjk, game is basically over here.

t29 double miss didnt matter bc my foo survived hjk and chipped dundies' foo for a good chunk, placing it in sludge bomb range for gastly which meant there were no more 50/50s to risk btwn psychic and sludge to kill vull and foo.

was a fun game, gg bro
 
i'm done with both of my first phase games, so now i will comment on them. really night and day between them.

me vs Dundies was an absolute fucking thriller, i had a really good time with that match and frankly thought i played very well with what knowledge i had. that said, exactly what i said in my predictions happened - i was explained to later that i could have bluffed QA with the bunny and got an agility off (i was Z Return) and maybe had a shot at winning there. as well, i was unaware that it was scarf diglett (but i did consider the possibility) so i had thought that i had the game wrapped up with scarf iron head with pawn, which won so long as it got the roll vs mienfoo (it was like 50/50 iirc). dundies is a beast to play, he's smart and incredibly strong, but i want to fight him again as i've gotten better even more over these past weeks.

vs OP just ended and uh, kinda shitty. he DCd and lost with a real low timer, and ojama is telling me i should feel like shit rn, which i kinda do. that said, i think i played up to the point where the DC happened quite well. once his abra was gone i think i just needed to get a 75% chance roll on mag at the very worst to win w/ zigzagoon, so i really do think i was in a great position, but the game ended incredible lame and wasn't as fun as i'd have hoped.
 
you don't have anything to feel bad about teal, it's entirely not your fault. My mag didn't have a hidden power so it lived after rocks 68.7% of the time with the 36 def EVs, giving me still a good shot at the game. lame and dumb ending but o well, I'll try to stop toeing the timer line so closely in the future - my internet had never failed me before today that I remember.

one thing I might've done differently that game would be when I went to abra on foongus and used sub. I didn't think anybody used 16 spdef vullaby anymore and I should've considered it more. Abra could've easily gotten one kill and then further momentum after it dies to diglett/scarf pawn in that matchup but it did way, way less because I didn't get rocks up before using it.

I should be playing kingler in about 4h 20mins from this post for those interested
 

jake

underdog of the year
is a Tournament Director Alumnusis a Site Content Manager Alumnusis a Team Rater Alumnusis a Senior Staff Member Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnusis a Researcher Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Top Contributor Alumnusis a Smogon Media Contributor Alumnusis a Top Dedicated Tournament Host Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnusis a Past SPL Champion
i'll do this too! me vs heysup

i really wanted to bring a couple cool techs vs heysup, especially recycle mag since he usually just relies on tanking mag hits with evio mons and trapping with diglett.

t3: i uturned because i was concerned about the bulkyfoo that lives hjk after knock damage and koes back (i was fastfoo). double crit lol
t13: if he was hp grass i always live at this percentage. i also crept foongus with my spread specifically to knock it
t16: i had no idea what jangmo-o would do. i couldve knocked, but i felt like i had a comfortable lead and my vullaby was ultimately going to win the game, so i was afraid of risking it to like some z-move bullshit. i calced it out and recyclemag 3hkoed sdef on top of chances to crit and drop, so if he was some sdef boosting bull i could comfortably uturn into mag to handle it. maybe could've knocked here, but with regards to the unknown i think it was ok

me vs levi

im mad i didn't make better plays in the opening sequence, but levi capitalized. protect vull is something i was messing with lately and it's cool to see it come alive in this game.

t4: i timered myself down here a lot because it was a pivotal turn. i had to pick what to lose, and of all of my pokemon, trapinch probably provided the least usefulness, and i was prepared to sack it to rolls. evio ferro was my plan for dealing with spritzee, but levi torched that with zmm vulla.
t6: i bullet seeded in case he knocked because if he knocked and i rocked i look like an absolute fool and lose another pokemon. maybe if i thought it through better i couldve determined whether or not he died to bb + barbs damage after a knock, but yea.
t7: i hard frill anticipating a hjk.
t8: at this point, wingull is my wincon, and i need chip on ferro, knock spritz, and chip down grimer. i wisp because every other play loses me some momentum, save maybe going
t10: i kind of regret this one, because i should have knocked his ferro here. i guess it's a 50/50: does he go foo? but staying in to get rocks is always his better play, and i can get rocks after if i win the tie. i also probably want to defog later, so knocking was always the better play.
t18: another tough play, because he can knock or wave. he got the call right and waved my foo, even though it was ultimately his safer play. i probably shouldve read into it better
t20: i maybe shouldve gone into gull here, but i was scared of him getting highroll sneak into poison into gull death and i lose.
t24-25: i needed to roost at least once, despite risking poison, because i couldn't win if he highroll sneak + poison because gull dies. he probably should've kept sneaking because i'd never be out of moonblast range unless i got real lucky.
t26: crit mattered but it was an advantageous roll for me
t27: i needed hurricane confusion or a crit
t28: maybe i should have scalded here, but it was a 50/50 between wish and moonblast. his moonblast drop on me also sucked:

0 SpA Frillish Hex (130 BP) vs. 212 HP / 76 SpD Spritzee: 13-16 (48.1 - 59.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after burn damage

Possible damage amounts: (13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 13, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 15, 16)
t38: this was a horrible play from me because fake out buys me nothing except a paralysis chance. i either had to make the play expecting knock/uturn, or make the play expecting him to stay in and hjk. he lost nothing by staying in and hjking this turn, so that one was all on me.
t39: to complete the throw, i sacked my frill on a one-time prayer of cursed body rather than letting my foo die and putting it all on ghostfish's shoulders.

i could've played this endgame and the earlygame way better, probably the whole game better in general, but i think i did ok. alas we will play again for open

gl next round everyone
 
nyanpasu. phase 2 is up

Corporal Levi: 2-0
Sken: 2-0
jake: 1-1
Heysup: 0-2
trash: 0-2

dcae: 1-1
Dundies: 1-1
Kingler12345: 1-1
teal6: 1-1
OP: 1-1

Sun Division
Heysup vs. Corporal Levi
Heysup vs. trash
jake vs. trash
jake vs. Sken
Corporal Levi vs. Sken (9/16 - 4:00 pm)

Moon Division
dcae vs. teal6
dcae vs. OP
Dundies vs. OP
Dundies vs. Kingler12345
teal6 vs. Kingler12345

***times in gmt-4

like last time ill put scheduled games after the matches if i get them. moon division has lots of amazing games such as dundies vs op/kingler, but the other games are also great! while sun division has two 2-0s facing each other, who will end with the undefeated record after this game :o and will they continue their streak after/before that game to the only 4-0 record in lc. looking forward to all these matches like last phase and hope for some great games. ill post my thoughts vs levi later this week, so while u wait post ur predictions and thoughts on this phase!
 
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sister

Banned deucer.
Here are the usage stats I counted for this round. I know this will all be compiled eventually but I thought it would be interesting to discuss the Pokemon and sets used in this phase of the tournament.

Pokemon - # of Uses - Usage %
Mienfoo - 15 - 75%
Vullaby - 14 - 70%
Diglett - 9 - 45%
Ferroseed - 8 - 40%
Spritzee - 8 - 40%
Magnemite - 7 - 35%
Wingull - 7 - 35%
Pawniard - 6 - 30%
Onix - 5 - 25%
Foongus - 4 - 20%
Gastly - 4 - 20%
Trapinch - 4 - 20%
Tirtouga - 3 - 15%
Abra - 2 - 10%
Mareanie - 2 - 10%
Snivy - 2 - 10%
Timburr - 2 - 10%
Vulpix-A - 2 - 10%
Zigzagoon - 2 - 10%
Bunnelby - 1 - 5%
Chespin - 1 - 5%
Chinchou - 1 - 5%
Clamperl - 1 - 5%
Elekid - 1 - 5%
Frillish - 1 - 5%
Grimer-A - 1 - 5%
Jangmo-o - 1 - 5%
Kabuto - 1 - 5%
Pancham - 1 - 5%
Sandshrew-A - 1 - 5%
Shellder - 1 - 5%
Staryu - 1 - 5%

Any big surprises? What was your favorite set that saw light in the phase? While I'm sure it's influence behind the scenes was pretty strong, I am a little surprised to see Foongus pretty low down. Maybe players have lost their taste for obnoxious synthesis wars. Spritzee stands tall as one of the best walls in the tier, and I'm not surprised to see it used the same amount as Ferroseed; the two make an incredible core. As offensive Spritzees become more common, it only gets more scary, very few Pokemon can boast the ability to go from such degrees of defensiveness to offensiveness. My favorite offensive Spritzee set so far is the NP + Draining Kiss set Sken used vs. trash.

Magnemite is also interesting. I can't help but wonder if its usage is owed to the popularity of Wingull / Vullaby or solely by its own merits. While Scarf is definitely the dominant set, Sturdy + BJ had a few uses as well. It's amazing that Magnemite remains so heavily used even in a metagame dominated by Diglett, though I've always found the 4D-chess tier mindgames you have to play when dealing with the match-up to be pretty fun.

Finally, the two kings, Mienfoo and Vullaby. Mienfoo's roles seemed to stay relatively consistent throughout the phase, which isn't surprising, the power of U-turn into Z-Tect Dig is still as scary as ever. And Mienfoo's offensive and defensive qualities alone remain unmatched. Vullaby saw a bit more variation in its sets. Even the seemingly rare Z-Mirror Move got a use in Levi vs. Jake and Nasty Plot saw a lot of mileage, too.

And there's the things we DIDN'T see. Sticky Web was never used. Ponyta, Carvanha, Croagunk, Doduo and Mudbray are the only A rankers to not see play yet. I wonder if we'll see anything wild from them in the next phase.

Anyway, there were some really fun battles to watch and I look forward to the next round.
 
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