Smogon Snake Draft III - Finals

OU: ABR vs Tace: I would pick Abr against most anyone, but this being the finals as well as assuming ABR will schedule to put himself as one of the last two games makes me favor him even more being that he has been in far more high stakes games than Tace.
OU: Twixtry vs Welli0u: i've recently been informed the lower tier superstar the well is 6-0 in ou, So i would be remised if I were to predict against him even though I am high on twix.
OU: ima vs Insult: two very cool dudes, I think ima with all this support in building is really thriving, and I see him finishing with the 9-2.
OU: le LLiolae vs Corazan: lelliolae had an awesome olt and has had a solid snake too, he's pretty varied in his team choices and his play. That being said I think i woulda rocked with mana here. He has played more big games and regardless of his record I feel he has played a super solid tour playing wise. Speaking of solid tours cora is like 7 or 8-2 luck aside thats extremely impressive and he just beat tricking last week.
DOU: Ezrael vs emforbes: Jon is mega fire and made one of the best emotes of all time but emilio is equally fire and I do not know a thing about doubles
UU: robjr vs Charmflash: Rob was on the brink of going 0-5 I believe but has really rebounded the past few weeks. I think that pearl will be in try hard mode this week and they will be ready to beat bliss or ditto.
RU: Alpha Rabbit vs roman: both players have had pretty solid tours, I tend to again favor the guy with pearl support here although I am sure roman will have plenty of outside of the team help.
NU: Sjneider vs Garay oak: to me this is probably the closest game of the series. Record wise neider is far more impressive. However garay after a bad start has won two in a row, and Garay when he is on a streak is one of the scariest people to play. I have to go with Neider because he's been brilliant all tour but Garay can def take this one a virtual toss up in my eyes.
PU: Teddeh vs Xiri: I know going into the tour Teddeh had said he was not going to have a ton of time and I think that has showed a bit. If I thought he was fully invested I would be bolding him here, But xiri has had an outstanding tour, and I'm sure he will go all out for this.
LC: jake vs Luthier: I feel like Lc can be pretty variance heavy, But jake seems rather good at account for swanky stuff and has played super constant all tour. If he preps for clampearl or webs I think he has it.

Taipans 6-3 Doubles as a scratch
 
Gonna make some quick predictions based on recent tournament results and my own personal views cause why not.

Terminus Taipans (7) vs (3) Lake of Rage Leviathans

OU: ABR vs Tace
OU: Twixtry vs Welli0u
OU: ima vs Insult
OU: le LLiolae vs Corazan
DOU: Ezrael vs emforbes
UU: robjr vs Charmflash
RU: Alpha Rabbit vs roman
NU: Sjneider vs Garay oak
PU: Teddeh vs Xiri
LC: jake vs Luthier
 
Terminus Taipans (6) vs (4) Lake of Rage Leviathans

OU: ABR vs Tace - hard to root against #1
OU: Twixtry vs Welli0u - hard for me to pick one, but i probably think well is better
OU: ima vs Insult - ima's been on fire this tour
OU: le LLiolae vs Corazan - interesting one, both went pretty far in an indiv too. i'll give it to the olt dude
DOU: Ezrael vs emforbes - dude's been an absolute beast
UU: robjr vs Charmflash - i'm gonna go with the upset here; the charming flasher will win
RU: Alpha Rabbit vs roman - also even but i'd favor roman a little, both are two newcomers who are doing pretty well and considering what roman used last week (i'm a fan), might be some interesting shit
NU: Sjneider vs Garay oak - after sjneider's week 9 game i gotta bold him LOL
PU: Teddeh vs Xiri - the king of stall vs the dad of stall. no contest
LC: jake vs Luthier - jake's been on fire this tour, and i think in general he makes fewer mistakes and uses more solid stuff in the builder; it's been in large part execution too. i think luthier is capable of bringing out something to catch jake offguard or make smart plays to catch his overaggression, and of course if he reels in a good matchup he should be fine easily. i doubt there's really an even game here, because both aren't really afraid to use stuff with a pretty high risk attached to it (though it's kind of a risk you have to take). should be an interesting one, but i have to favor the dude who's 8-2
 

Mannat

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Won SPL Predictions
OBS crashed so no video this time :(

ABR vs Tace - Definitely the most exciting matchup of the round, with two of smogon's most lucky players as of late facing off. They had a very close series in OLT recently in which ABR just squeaked out a win against Tace, so I'm excited to see the rematch. ABR definitely has the edge on Tace in the building department, but Tace has managed to do a solid job giving himself strong matchups over the course of this tournament. I'm interested to watch how this game unfolds from a playing standpoint, as Tace is the kind of aggressive player that ABR usually feasts on. ABR's ability to make aggressive "punishing" plays, such as double attacks predicting double switches and such have been a key in some of his most noteworthy performances in recent memory and I'm interested to see how that factors in here. Additionally, ABRs a much more consistent player with experience in numerous high pressure situations, ranging from OST finals to SPL tiebreaks, so he's going to be favored by a good bit here as long as TaceFreeze doesn't strike again.

OU: Twixtry vs Welli0u - Both of these guys are kind of solid "plug and play" players that can use teams and run with them fairly easily, so this matchup is one that can go either way. Well is 6-0 in OU this tour and has significantly more tournament experience between tournaments like RUing in SPL X as well as individual tournament games against top level competition, most notably his recent Smogon Tour run. Additionally, I feel like Twix has a tendency to bring some shaky teams and trips up in games more than Well does in spite of being able to perform and beat some strong players. Well just seems like the model of consistency from his performance as of late and I don't see him stopping that trend, and that makes it pretty tough to pick against him in this matchup.

OU: ima vs Insult - Yet another exciting matchup in the OU for this series comes between ima and insult. Prior to this tour, insult would've been a fairly simple choice for the win between these two, but ima has had a breakout tour. He's closed the gap between him and insult in this snake, putting up a fantastic 8-2 performance and proving a lot of doubters wrong. Ima's unique playstyle doesn't necessarily lean heavily towards an offensive or defensive focus, clearly showing signs of some of his major building influences in ABR and xtra. It's hard to pin down for opponents trying to prep for him, and I think that gives him a natural edge against most players. That being said, I feel like insult still has the edge on ima with regards to in-game execution, and he should be able to take this game if he doesn't beat himself in the builder with weird picks like regular zam and azu trying too hard to cteam ima's unique style.

OU: le LLiolae vs Corazan - Another super close game, between two of the hotter players on smogon right now. Liolae is coming off of an appearance in OLT finals and some nice wins over top level competition earlier this snake whereas Corazan has been tearing up the field this snake, with a nice 3-0 record in OU specifically. Both players take their fair share of risks in game, and I feel like that oftentimes leads to mistakes in-game. Lio in particular reminds me of players like Lopunny Kicks and Sacri when they were starting out in that he can sometimes take the aggression too far and lose from advantageous positions. In spite of that, Lio has a strong edge with regards to in-game play as of right now, though Cora does seem to bring more solid teams overall. I know I've mentioned experience a lot, but it's important with regards to being able to stay focused in high pressure situations like this, and that's the main reason why I give lio a slight edge over the newer Cora.
DOU: Ezrael vs emforbes - Not a doubles player, nor do I claim to know anything about this tier whatsoever, but these guys are both phenomenal players, so I'm hyped to tune in for the game live if I can.

UU: robjr vs Charmflash - This is one of the more interesting UU matchups in recent memory. Charmflash is coming off of a nice win against Adaam for his first UU win of the tour and seems to be finding his groove in the tier, but I'm still of the opinion that rob is easily a top 2 player in this UU pool in spite of his record and he seems to have found his footing in these playoffs, so I don't see him losing to Charmflash. A lot of credence has been given to Pearl's team support in predictions that I've read, and for good reason, but I can't help but feel like UU's current metagame is one in which there's not as many "autoloss matchups" as there are in OU. For this reason, I feel like rob is definitely favored in this matchup, as he's nearly unbeatable on the playing field using a team that enables him to play with his usual aggressive style and I believe it's going to be difficult for Charm to keep up with him if he doesn't get a significant advantage in the builder.

RU: Alpha Rabbit vs roman - Picking against the experience for once here! I feel like while rabbit is still a fantastic RU builder, he's had some trouble figuring a way to translate that building skill to the playing field. On the other hand roman, who's a slightly worse builder than rabbit, has had a pretty smooth transition to RU, with an impressive win over Ajna and sporting a solid 4-2 record. These two are still quite new to the tournament scene, so mistakes are definitely probable in this game just out of nervousness. I still think that rabbit has the potential to trash anyone he wants to if he can get over his nerves and play his game, but he's just not been able to in snake as much as in other settings, so I've got roman winning this one.

NU: Sjneider vs Garay oak - This is an exciting rematch from their week 2 bout. Sjneider has come to finals sporting the best NU record in the pool and looking invincible in nearly every game he's played, whereas Garay has looked a lot more shaky and is coming in with a negative record. Though, Garay has won 2 games in a row, so he's coming in with some momentum and he's one of the best NU players around when he's on a hot streak, so he shouldn't be counted out. A lot of NU players seem to take issue with Sjneider's teams for various reasons, usually because they appear to be weak to some common mons on paper. Regardless, his teams have been winning so there's no reason to doubt his team choices here. Nerves are sure to be a factor for Sjneider as a newcomer, but I still have faith in him to overcome those nerves and come out with the win in this pivotal matchup.

PU: Teddeh vs Xiri - I'm no PU savant, but Xiri has looked fantastic from what I've seen from him in the last 8 weeks or so, and Teddeh has been one of the better lowertiers players on the site for a while now, with his incredible SPL 9 run and 2018 Slam run coming to mind. As someone who isn't too familiar with this tier, it's tough to get a read on this game, so I'm not gonna be able to predict either way.

LC: jake vs Luthier - Rounding out the matchups for these finals is a bout between two strong LC players in jake and Luthier. Jake has been lighting the world on fire this snake, sporting a fantastic 8-2 record and beating seemingly everyone in sight. Both guys don't seem to have a problem with bringing more risky picks to try and get a matchup advantage, and it's paid dividends for them at times (see: Clamperl), but it's obviously a double-edged sword from a prepping standpoint. In terms of actually playing the game, Luthier still has a fairly short-sighted view of the game as a player and doesn't think more than a couple turns ahead, whereas jake is a much more solid player that's less prone to making potentially game losing mistakes. Luthier still makes some nicely aggressive plays that can give him an early advantage, but I think that Jake's more steady playing style coupled with his tournament experience gives him a solid edge here.
 
Hey, gl cool part of the abrs (ted, jake and rob), i hope you guys overcome the supreme luck that the oppositing team has and get the rings.

Id also like to publicly talk about KING RU. Alongside tricking and osh, he was easily one of the most valuable parts of the bakers, as both player and team mate. Dudes insanely underrated and im happy we noticed his value before the draft (Mariano wanted to even pick him a bit sooner but i knew people would ignore his recent results, the only reason i didnt pick him later was to not risk letting him go to like pearl or smt), and i hope he keeps stunning in future tournaments. This community is cancer dont let em say you arent good but dont respond anything either, just show your results and they will start sucking you dick BOP.
 
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