Smogon Snake Draft III - Semifinals

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Hikari

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Tournament Rules and General Guidelines



Matchups:



Terminus Taipans (6) vs (2) Ambrette Astrotias

OU: Mana vs ZoroDark
OU: Twixtry vs Tamahome
OU: ABR vs Updated Kanto
OU: ima vs Cdumas
DOU: Ezrael vs Mint16
UU: robjr vs Lycans
RU: Alpha Rabbit vs HarrisIsAwesome
NU: Sjneider vs Jrdn
PU: Teddeh vs false
LC: jake vs Shrug



Lanakila Nagas (3) vs (7) Lake of Rage Leviathans

OU: ramboss vs Insult
OU: Tricking vs Corazan
OU: Kebab mlml vs Tace
OU: Jimmy Turtwig vs Welli0u
DOU: Nails vs Kiichikos
UU: Adaam vs Charmflash
RU: Kink vs roman
NU: Ren-chon vs Garay oak
PU: Ktütverde vs Xiri
LC: Osh vs Luthier

Deadline will be November 3rd, 10:00 PM EST.
 
Last edited:

z0mOG

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OU: Mana vs ZoroDark - (50/50) Starting off with a coin-toss wow. I'd probably rate zoro's ability to play higher than mana's but I'd 10x over expect mana to show up better prepped. Mana is innovative and forward-thinking, Zoro will probably fall back on comfort and not take much time of his own to see that the team is a success. Zoro is really good at assessing gamestate and playing exactly how he needs to to win. Mana is never a slouch, but there are a few instances where I think he shows lapses in judgment, and he also has (comparatively) less experience in these higher pressure PO type games than Zoro, so it's a tough call to me.
OU: Twixtry vs Tamahome - (35/65) Tamahome is playing mostly good pokemon whereas I think twixtry is falling a bit short of what it takes. Tama has also been more varied in his team choices than I'd have expected him to be going in to this tournament, which should keep the taipans builders on their toes. The experience in high pressure situations is a total lopside, and I think Tamahome is a conventional favorite to win should he not get styled on in the builder.
OU: ABR vs Updated Kanto - (55/45) I'm anticipating this game to deliver on the hype for sure. In my perception, Kanto's playstyle matches very strongly into ABR's, and he is on an upswing in terms of results showing that he is a consistent threat to be reckoned with. However, I'll favor ABR because I'm not big on the teams Kanto has been using and I think he will have to change it up to not start off from the backfoot due to ABR's innovative means of counter-picking.I think that (if they weren't matched now), this likely would've been a possible tiebreak OU game, at least given how Kanto has looked the strongest of the Astros OU.
OU: ima vs Cdumas - (55/45) Probably a traditional upset to favor ima if one didn't know as much about the two battlers as (I'd like to think) that I do, but I believe ima has shown a lot of growth in his ability to play whatever style fits the game and look strong. Cdumas started off a lot stronger than he finished whereas ima has been great all tour, but records aside I think that ima will be able to outplay if he does his own thing. I expect an even, no-nonsense duo of teams with neither playing starting with too good or bad of a matchup.


OU: ramboss vs Insult - (35/65) I'm just not sold on ramboss's playing nor his ability to prep. It feels like his teams are all, in some way, matchup gambles that either win or lose before he can begin to play the game. Personally, I think insult can be a bit linear in his team choices and a lot of his losses come from this, but as a player he definitely has proven to be good at assessing gamestate and playing to a win condition early. I feel like I don't have much to comment on ramboss's ingame prowess just because it feels like his games often don't come to that.
OU: Tricking vs Corazan - (55/45) Corazan is a surprisingly good battler, he pulls the trigger like any veteran player and also has the god-touch of RNG, making him a potent kingtoppler. I don't really think that there is a huge playing discrepancy between these two guys. However... Somehow, nobody has been able to figure out how to overcome Tricking's total reliance on the same team every single tournament game he plays. Just prep for ditto chansey skarm and it'll be a fair fight, seriously. Get charm to build corazan's team and it's (50/50).
OU: Kebab mlml vs Tace - (40/60) I sincerely hate watching tace play. Every game it just feels like he boosts up a sweeper until he crits or freezes, which he usually does. But he has been playing well this snake and his style seems to work so I can't fault it at all. Lucky and good is scarier than just good. Kebab is really wild in his approach to the game, giving me the impression that he'd just as easily beat someone considered way better than him as he'd lose to someone seen as way worse than him. I don't have strong opinions on the team selections, but I do think tace's player identity is stronger.
OU: Jimmy Turtwig vs Welli0u - (40/60) Welli0u has kind of fit in as just a stand-in "good player" at this stage in his career, and doesn't really overattach to any one team or playstyle. He is the type to always coast to victory vs players weaker than he is ingame. Jimmy is, in my opinion, still not a stable OU slot and it shows to me in the way he seems to plan out his games, not really having the touch of a more seasoned gen 7 player. His record this season was solid, albeit vs weaker players, but I don't consider welli0u to be someone that Jimmy can rely on his jack-of-all-trades skillset to beat handily.
 
First time doing predicts :)

(1) Taipans vs (4) Astrotias

OU: Mana vs ZoroDark - I favor ZoroDark's playing ability higher that Mana's, but I predict Mana will get matchup with the help of ABR. Unclear.
OU: Twixtry vs Tamahome - Solid edge to Tamahome in playing ability, if he doesn't get horrendous mu he should win.
OU: ABR vs Updated Kanto - Hard not to favor ABR, but Kanto has showed good form this tour however so I expect a good game.
OU: ima vs Cdumas - ima has been great this tour, also worth noting Cdumas has lost his last 4 after starting 4-1 which isn't good.
DOU: Ezrael vs Mint16 - Ezrael has been on fire. He also drop-kicked me in DOU Seasonal so yeah.
UU: robjr vs Lycans -Neither has had the best tour of their lives, but rob with pearl support is still a force. Slight Edge.
RU: Alpha Rabbit vs HarrisIsAwesome - rabbit has struggled this tour, Harris has looked p good in his first two showings and has Evi and Feliburn behind him. Solid Edge.
NU: Sjneider vs Jrdn- Close one, both have been solid this tour, slight edge to Sjneider mostly due to team building.
PU: Teddeh vs false - false has been doing good this tour sitting at a 5-3 record, Teddeh is at a 4-4 but has gotten unlucky at times, overall I think Teddeh is a stronger player however. Moderate Edge.
LC: jake vs Shrug - Don't know much about LC but jake has performed well this tour

Overall: Taipans 6-3, can see Zoro and one or more of the lower tier games winning however.
In case of tiebreak Taipans have to be favored. ABR + Ezrael should win and it is unclear to me what the Astrotias would pick.

(2) Nagas vs (3) Leviathans

OU: ramboss vs Insult - Upset pick, I think Insult is great but I predict ramboss will have some Italian team that goes well with his aggressive playstyle and win.
OU: Tricking vs Corazan - Woatli
OU: Kebab mlml vs Tace - idk here, Tace has been solid enough I guess.
OU: Jimmy Turtwig vs Welli0u - Welli0u has been solid, but this man Jimmy won with regular gardevoir + golduck last week. I think that Jimmy has shown enough that he is capable of being a SM starter, though he has had his ups and downs.
DOU: Nails vs emforbes - emforbes has been strong since starting 0-2, expecting him to keep on rolling. Solid Edge.
UU: Adaam vs Charmflash - Adaam won UU Open + Slam and has a 6-3 record playing good mons right now so hard not to favor him, however I've seen Charmflash bring some wild things in UU, and think that he is a strong player as well. Slight Edge.
RU: Kink vs roman - King RU pulling up with the best RU record, I actually think roman is really good though. Slight Edge.
NU: Ren-chon vs Garay oak - Garay has not had the best time this past month, but I expect him to be able to pull through for 1-2 more weeks with good performances that Garay has shown before in the past.
PU: Ktütverde vs Xiri - Xiri has been fire this tour, with a 7-2 record and piloting interesting teams well. Ktut has been middling in my eyes. Solid Edge
LC: Osh vs Luthier - Again don't know much about LC, while I do like Luthier he has had his ups and downs this tour, and Osh has been good this tour. Luthier might be able to matchup fish and get an easy win as he has done in the past.

Overall: Bakers 6-4. Close series, as expected of a 2 vs 3 seed matchup.
Not gonna predict tiebreaks because both teams have solid options, Tricking will be a favorite in OU though, so maybe Bakers are favored if it comes to that.
 
OU: Mana vs ZoroDark - I rated mana very highly after going back and watching his SPL games, while I think that he is rather predictable in what he may bring his playing ceilings are extremely impressive, and I would like to think he would play his best in this game so ill give him the edge.
OU: Twixtry vs Tamahome - Tama has brought a ton of different types of builds this tour and has played a tier that is likely not his first choice quite well. I am a big fan of twix and think he's super good, but in a high stakes game ill take the guy who's had a more varied approach and has nearly 140 tour games under his belt.
OU: ABR vs Updated Kanto - Glad to see kanto do as well as he has this tour and if this were week 6 or 7, I would have this closer to a toss up with how good of form he appeared to be in. However I believe he is 1-3 in the last 4 weeks and you need to be peaking when playing ABR. That said I think Kanto def has the ability to take this but seems silly to predict against ABR being that he's the best overall player in the game.
OU: ima vs Cdumas - Pork chop man has had a sensational tour and has all the support in the world to help him get a solid matchup here.


OU: ramboss vs Insult - Insult has had a good showing this tour, I think he's been on the wrong end of a phew very tough match ups but playing wise he has impressed me a lot. Ramboss is a high variance guy so he could certainly take this but ill go with the guy I feel has a much higher floor.
OU: Tricking vs Corazan - Has been without a doubt the most impressive player this tour. Cora has put together a very good record too albeit has had good fortunes in a few of the games but could certainly put up a fight.
OU: Kebab mlml vs Tace - another instance of variance against a relatively high floor. I think kebab has very high peaks when playing and could bring anything under the sun but assuming even mu I think tace takes this most of the time.
OU: Jimmy Turtwig vs Welli0u - The well seems to be very comfortable in sm ou something i would not have predicted at the beginning of the tour.
 
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