Smogon Snake Draft IV - Semifinals

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kjdaas

this girl rly slapped some letters together huh
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>Spreadsheet<
> Schedule <
Shoutouts: Ticken for the sheet improvements and Serene Grace for the schedule sheet!

Tournament Rules and General Guidelines

Matchups:


Sky Tower Lindworms (5) vs (5) Lanakila Nagas

OU: beatiful vs Regnite
OU: Garay oak vs ima
OU: Jytcampbell vs Sacri'
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs robjr
DOU: umbry vs Tenzai
UU: Poek vs SoulWind
RU: Pepeduce vs atomicllamas
NU: Realistic Waters vs Ren-chon
PU: TJ vs Kink
LC: dcae vs Ninjadog

Tiebreaker:
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs Sacri'
UU: Garay oak vs SoulWind
DOU: umbry vs Tenzai


Rumble Hall Rattlers (6) vs (4) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Samqian vs FMG
OU: lax vs HANTSUKI
OU: talah vs mncmt
OU: Kebab mlml vs 1 True Lycan
DOU: Ezrael vs Qwello Lee
UU: CBU vs Lilburr
RU: Ajna vs snaga
NU: bugzinator vs Sjneider
PU: Vulpix03 vs Xiri
LC: Serene Grace vs Shrug

Deadline will be November 8th, 9:00 PM GMT-4.
Sky Tower Lindworms (0) vs (0) Lanakila Nagas

OU: beatiful vs Regnite
OU: Garay oak vs Ima
OU: Jytcampbell vs Sacri'
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs Robjr
DOU: Umbry vs Tenzai
UU: Poek vs SoulWind
RU: Pepeduce vs atomicllamas
NU: Realistic Waters vs Ren-chon
PU: TJ vs Kink
LC: dcae vs Ninjadog

Rumble Hall Rattlers (0) vs (0) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Samqian vs FMG
OU: lax vs HANTSUKI
OU: talah vs mncmt
OU: Kebab mlml vs 1 True Lycan
DOU: Ezrael vs Qwello Lee
UU: CBU vs Lilburr
RU: Ajna vs snaga
NU: bugzinator vs Sjneider
PU: Vulpix03 vs Xiri
LC: Serene Grace vs Shrug
 
Last edited:

Ununhexium

Orange Vanilla Coke
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Sky Tower Lindworms (4) vs (6) Lanakila Nagas

OU: beatiful vs Regnite
OU: Garay oak vs Ima
OU: Jytcampbell vs Sacri'
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs Robjr
DOU: Umbry vs Tenzai
UU: Poek vs SoulWind
RU: Pepeduce vs atomicllamas
NU: Realistic Waters vs Ren-chon
PU: TJ vs Kink
LC: dcae vs Ninjadog

Rumble Hall Rattlers (4) vs (6) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Samqian vs FMG
OU: lax vs HANTSUKI
OU: talah vs mncmt
OU: Kebab mlml vs 1 True Lycan
DOU: Ezrael vs Qwello Lee
UU: CBU vs Lilburr
RU: Ajna vs snaga
NU: bugzinator vs Sjneider
PU: Vulpix03 vs Xiri
LC: Serene Grace vs Shrug
 
Never writen predicts before, but I've been following this tour pretty closely, so here they are:

OU: beatiful vs Regnite - bea has been really strong recently, and considering that he no longer has OLT to prepare for, I think this one is his.
OU: Garay oak vs Ima - if ima doesn't get 8-3, after all the hype...
OU: Jytcampbell vs Sacri' - Everyone has been saying jytcampbell is underrated, making him no longer underrated, but nevertheless, Sacri is a stronger player, even taking out lax earlier in the tour.
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs Robjr - Eo is top of the sheet, and while robjr is good, Eo has been very consistent this tour. I expect him to win this in a strong showing.
DOU: Umbry vs Tenzai - Umbry has been doing very well this tour.
UU: Poek vs SoulWind - SW won this matchup last time they played, but I think that Poek still has a very real shot. They're both very good, and I think this will be a close game. Bolding Poek because I think he will pull off the upset.

OU: Samqian vs FMG - I have a very favorable opinion of FMG. Judging by his Classic results this year, he's clearly a good player, and I think that he has a lot of potential in current gen OU. Samqian has been strong this tour, but I think FMG will pull off the upset here.
OU: lax vs HANTSUKI - normally, I would bold lax 100% in this, but he had a bit of a slump this tour, and despite bringing in a win in his last match, I think that HANTSUKI has a strong chance to pull something off.
OU: talah vs mncmt - I think mence is much better than talah.
OU: Kebab mlml vs 1 True Lycan - Kebab beat Finch and had a very strong WCoP. He has not looked in WCoP form this tour, but I think the victory against Finch marks a potential return to form. This will be close either way.
DOU: Ezrael vs Qwello Lee - I have never been that high on Ezrael, he always seems to lose when I'm watching, but QL has not looked strong either.
RU: Ajna vs snaga - Ajna is so good.
 
Sky Tower Lindworms (5) vs (5) Lanakila Nagas

OU: beatiful vs Regnite: cheatwin being banned may have been a blessing in disguise for the lindworms, as beautiful has been a remedy to an otherwise weak on paper OU core (outside of eo, who is broken for SOME reason). lately beautiful has shown he has a pretty high ceiling as a player. still, his overall just solid record and a very weak OLT semis performance shows he still has some room to become more consistent at playing to his potential. regnite is the perfect opponent to prove this against. regnite is really solid, but he hasn't really had a breakout moment in this tournament. i don't think he will be a piece of cake for beautiful by any means, but if bea wants to show he can hang with the top dogs, beating solid players like this convincingly is a must.

OU: Garay oak vs ima: garay has looked fine, but not particularly great. granted, he had some pretty tough MUs for a lower tier mainer's first shot at OU, and ima is just another opponent in this trend for garay. in almost every ima predict, i've said something along the lines of his highs being really high but his lows being pretty low: this snake we are seeing ima at one of his highest peaks for sure. dominant and extremely confident play with some strong team choices has brought him a long way. strongly favoring ima on this one.

OU: Jytcampbell vs Sacri': jyt, like garay, has looked mostly fine this tour, but far from spectacular. unlike garay, however, jyt has not faced as many tough opponents. he did already face sacri, actually, and he lost. while the revenge factor is an interesting one for sure, i can't see a player like jyt pulling it off against a player like sacri. despite bringing literally the same shit since he stepped onto the OU scene in SM, sacri just wins games. he brings these boring ass teams that are just him mixing and matching from a pool of 15 or so pokemon, but he plays them perfectly and wins most of the time. there is definitely some room for jyt to beat sacri in the builder here, but even then, i don't think it would be enough to beat the sac.

OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs robjr: i cannot get a read on robjr for the life of me this tour. i think he's great, but for some reason i predict like all his games wrong. now it'd be cool as hell for him to prove me wrong here, but against an 8-1 eo... idk. eo isn't only sporting a good record, he's sporting a good record against a crazy lineup of opponents... definitely one of the hardest schedules anyone got in snake. not only that though, but he has looked extremely good in virtually all of those games. his aggressive play and distinct team choices should be enough to beat robjr.

DOU: umbry vs Tenzai
UU: Poek vs SoulWind: really hype one despite being an extinct lower tier metagame.
RU: Pepeduce vs atomicllamas
NU: Realistic Waters vs Ren-chon
PU: TJ vs Kink
LC: dcae vs Ninjadog: sort of an upset predict i suppose. while i'm not particularly knowledgeable on LC, the people i know that are have me convinced that ninjadog has gotten lucked like every other week... this one might be closer than the records show.

well i have this one going to tiebreaker... i'm not really sure what choices the teams would make. the lindworms having poek and the nagas having soulwind really complicates things. these are two top notch players, soulwind more than poek nowadays, but still. i guess the nagas could force a second OU slot since soulwind is certainly more familiar with the tier than poek, and i doubt the lindworms put any of their other 3 players into that TB except maybe beautiful if poek isn't feeling it. from there i guess the lindworms pick NU since it's either RW vs elodin or RW vs an OU main. this one would probably end up coming down to the default OU game, which i would assume is between eo and ima, and i am really 50/50 on which i would pick.

Rumble Hall Rattlers (4) vs (6) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Samqian vs FMG: the monkey gamer is back. despite a poor showing this tour, FMG is a better player than samqian by a pretty significant margin. when we get into playoffs territory where the pressure is really on, i think this type of consistency is important. i don't think FMG is a particularly killer player or anything, but he's pretty good. even though he has picked up a few wins this tour, samqian has not looked convincing in the bulk of them. i don't think he's a bad player; there's some potential there, but idk. despite FMG being historically better, you do need to factor in his poor performance this tour at least a little bit, and that definitely makes this game closer than one would think. i still think it favors FMG, but samqian could definitely win this one to gain some momentum for himself... just not too likely to me given his performances thus far.

OU: lax vs HANTSUKI: hantsuki is 2-0 in OU vs two fairly solid players, but lax is a clear step (or two) above regnite and jyt. as i predicted, lax brought it back last week when things were on the line. while i might not be as high on lax as most, it's undeniable that he is really clutch. i'm calling it now: if rattlers make poffs, whoever lax's opponent is, i'm predicting him to win. he just seems to do really well in these high pressure scenarios. hantsuki definitely has a wildcard factor to him, and he's no slouch on top of that, but lax is not the type of player to be thrown off by a question mark player.

OU: talah vs mncmt: mnc has more or less lived up to his round 1 billing this tournament. a nice record that is the result of some well fought games vs a pretty good lineup of opponents. he's been making a case for himself as one of the next big OU guys for sure. talah has looked really good this tour (other than that game vs tace, but his team had just clinched so i don't really care about it). in his game vs BK, he played solid, but the matchup monkey was definitely what got him there, but in his game vs vaboh, he really just outplayed. the thing is: vaboh and mncmt are two totally different leagues of player. talah's pretty good, but i don't think he's gonna be outplaying mncmt like that anytime soon. what he does have a good chance of doing though is beating mncmt in the builder. talah's builds have gotten the rattlers some consistently good matchups that have been met with consistently poor play from their OU core. i think there's a reasonable chance talah gets a strong matchup here, and i think he's been playing well enough to have a shot at winning if he pulls such a matchup. still, mncmt has bested better builders and better players lately, so it will be very hard.

OU: Kebab mlml vs 1 True Lycan: i think kebab has looked consistently out of his element this tour, and the recent wins don't convince me otherwise. while the baron hasn't looked as killer as he did in SPL, he has looked pretty good for the most part. this is the type of matchup i think he's good at winning... kebab's a really solid player overall but not some type of monster.

DOU: Ezrael vs Qwello Lee
UU: CBU vs Lilburr
RU: Ajna vs snaga
NU: bugzinator vs Sjneider
PU: Vulpix03 vs Xiri
LC: Serene Grace vs Shrug

both these teams have similar structures to me: well rounded with mostly strong lower tiers and mostly weak OU. as such, i think a lot of these games are actually really close, especially all the lower tiers except RU and LC. i do think the cobras have a bit better of an OU core and PU, so the difference more or less evens out. it really comes down to the UU, NU, and DOU games for me, all three of which are pretty tough to call. it's kinda crazy predicting against ezrael in semifinals of a tournament, but it's also kinda crazy that sjneider vs bugzinator wouldn't be heavily in neider's favor. lots of weird stuff here! as for a potential tiebreak... i'm not even gonna act like i got a clue LOL.
congrats to the four teams that made it this far, good luck everyone!
 
the serpents were super dick this year but i wanna thank avarice for all the help throughout this tour. you're one of the best supports i couldve asked for and i couldnt have won my games without your help. in addition to building me like 100 teams a week and giving fantastic ideas, you helped out other slots too. hope to see u in spl bro

congrats to the 4 teams that made playoffs. rooting for the rattlers and especially hoping for my man ajna to grab his third green ring
 

Askov

winds from the past
is a Tiering Contributoris a Past SPL Champion
Definitely we weren't the most active team but was a cool tour. Thanks for my managers for drafting me , thanks vivalospride and avarice (did an amazing job helping pu as well despite not being on the team) for helping me with prep and teams for my games and thanks to hs and Eternal Spirit for helping me w tests, vocês são fodas :heart:

Rooting for my friends in Cobras mncmt HANTSUKI Averardo Prinz , DoC l2p
 

Jaajgko

I will disband the soccer club
is a Tiering Contributor
Sky Tower Lindworms (7) vs (3) Lanakila Nagas

OU: beatiful vs Regnite
OU: Garay oak vs Ima Let's get it ima, 2 left!
OU: Jytcampbell vs Sacri'
OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs Robjr
DOU: Umbry vs Tenzai
UU: Poek vs SoulWind
RU: Pepeduce vs atomicllamas
NU: Realistic Waters vs Ren-chon
PU: TJ vs Kink
LC: dcae vs Ninjadog #freedcae

Rumble Hall Rattlers (5) vs (5) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Samqian vs FMG
OU: lax vs HANTSUKI
OU: talah vs mncmt
OU: Kebab mlml vs 1 True Lycan
DOU: Ezrael vs Qwello Lee
UU: CBU vs Lilburr
RU: Ajna vs snaga
NU: bugzinator vs Sjneider
PU: Vulpix03 vs Xiri
LC: Serene Grace vs Shrug
 
so, let's see who I want to win...

Lindworms have Eo, RW, Pepeduce and Poek with heat teams and Garay with good literal taste. Tenzoat, Eternoat, Mariano and ladder hero Storm Zone are not enough to avoid me showing preference for the cheaters.

I see Gym Leader Steel Angelo in Cobras, as well as old Wcop opponents FMG and TPP. However, Rattlers have Europeans, Samqiam ( the one win I did not deserve), Serene Grace ( who always ruins my fun when I ladder LC) and Vulpix03 ( who apart from having a cute avatar, always gives likes to my posts without a reason.

So, Lindworms vs Rattlers is the final I want to see :bloblul:
 
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