GOATNALYSIS
The top 8 round had some heaty ass games so ill go over them briefly and highlight some of the most exquisite finesse moves
4. Soulwind vs 5. bro fist
BW https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen5ou-379335
this was a tough game for john right off the bat because sunny zone kills ferro for nite and also due to the looming threat of scarf lando which can uturn on the 1 switchin or eq everything for big damage. in order to break that team john needed to use bandnite/chomp to open up holes but even then the sweeper keld is checked by slowking, while lando revenges the dragons, so mu is about 4/6 against john.
lacking a good scarf uturn mu turn 1 (besides keld) john had to lead toed to put something to sleep, which is a good idea. slowking still walls keld even when sleeping, seeing as it can very likely be scarfed. going ferro on the ferro/chomp possibility was smart, as lando couldv been bad if uturning on a sd or staying in to eq on aqua tail. turn 3 sw makes a great read and predicts the band sp, while also having something to potentially deal with the dd nite (well if it was sub dd sarap from turn 0). sw then makes a great read to eq the switchin because the band nite was the only ground resist, but i think double sping was not a bad play because 3 things weak to sp on the uturn and slowking sleepin/nite needs scale. johns net was p bad tho so the pressure was prolly higher. great double back to nite to catch slowking/ferro, and this time john sp's again thinking that sw might stay in because chomp would be a huge threat with lando gone. this turn was huge because game couldv swayed completely in johns favor if the lando died or ferro died, so great read on sw's part. another trade happens and rocks go up, john needs to win this 5050 otherwise his team wont win the war of trading sacs. this time sw got him again w the leech read PHEWWWWWWWWWWWWW that was pretty fuckin fire. even tho i think maybe john predicted slowking or somethin to come in because this time sp was actually ok since it gets a kill. maybe john feared dd nite of any sort can set up on sp locked nite. john then trades ferro for 2 layers which he couldnt do much about. i think the toed doubling to nite sack was in anticipation of slowking on hiydro > sack nite to dd w aq tail dc chomp and win, which was rlly his only chance at winning at that point. however sw i think knew that toed didnt kill so he wanted to get rid of rain so that exca can still check chomp/put it in eq range of lando, but yea game was p over at that point. tho i think johns first/last superpower/outrage vs swithching out predict couldv been different, its rlly tough to make that play w bad mu, so props to sw for winning the mindgames there. very well played bw game on sw's part
SM https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ou-379352
i think the mu is pretty even here because if lati was ice then gren w spikes can do massive damage, it just takes 1 layer of spikes on the pex coming in and w rocks up, gren wins sooner or later. w defog, scor has an easy time w sw's only other check being his scor.
steelix tech does get rocks v pretty much everything so the zone trap was pretty smart. howeveer, did sw just assume no eq, even tho usually i run a sr ffang slam toxic/dtail set. john overpredicts and wants to do about 40 chip to the incoming scor and slams, and loses steelix very early which couldv been pretty bad because zone is the only other mon besides lati that couldv revenged scor at around half so taking that out wouldv been nice. john scouts the lati to see if it's defog, and the reveal p much shows that his scor can be pretty safe v that team. after a few turns of switching , john ofc cant risk trading burns cuz gren is a huge threat, so he goes lati then scor which is very smart to prevent scald spam from burning anything. john went scor predicting mag/pex to come out, but sw trusts that cain + z cain isnt comin out or tries to see if he can dodge the first cain which does like half, seeing as he can potentially heal up on pex and clef. john's scor pivot is smart because it beats gear/pex coming in, and also forces a sd war to get his gren in, which he does next turn. however, knowing how important spikes are to john sw decides to risk it and kill the gren, that shit was so balls out and payed off very hard because spikes wouldv put on so much pressure. at this point it seems that sw's mag is shift z so that isnt rlly a good mon vs cm clef int he back and pex, so he went zone to put on more pressure. john revelas the unexpected fb and takes out 1 of 2 things that can revenge scor, which is key. tbh i think sw coulda gone to gear because even if torn didnt have fb it couldv knokced the zone off, while gear rlly doesnt do anhything and can still switch into knokc or cain and get off somethin like a free ib fish vs the clef/pex. nvm so it turns out the gear wasnt even av, thats a weird lookin set. a few turns later john again overplays and sw reads that to get the kill on torn w lati, but if he z cained there the game couldv been verrrrry bad for sw since clef hadnt revealed ib yet, in which case john wins w scor. even tho that shit was balls out, it payed off for sw. i forsure think that on turn 30 sw shouldv sd'd again because he had a lead on the opposing scor, and no matter what he was gonna be +4 v +2 so he will get off a +4 hit guaranteed and then lati clicks psychic. the turns after that didnt rlly matter because once john's faster scor got to +2 sw absolutely needed to get another sd from turns 31-34, otherwise he can never be above 69% ish which is the +4 threshold and would die to johns faster +4 scor. overall i think sw kinda threw this game away towards the end despite making some very aggressive plays that payed off (facade on spikes and psy on knock were some HEATY plays phew), while john overpredicted a fair bit and got in a pickle early. thats why u speed creep guys word to cbb
ORAS https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6ou-379364
this shit was a whole ass highlight right here. john has only 2 things faster than mana and everything dies to +3, while sw has a hard time with gross and can only switch around for chip w zone or his own gross. overall sw had the slight mu edge due to scor being able to beat everything once gross dies. about 6/4 in sw's favor.
sw leads lati cuz theres a gross and a tar, best case it does chip and tanks sleep, and well it does just taht. sw takes initiative and goes scor to pressure into gross to hopefully chip it w zone, but that was too obvious as john destroys it w a hammer arm. at this point shit is lookin tough for sw because he rlly needed zone for gross. sw now takes the opportunity to take his kill w mana, and john reveals lack of tpunch (noone runs that shit anyways esp on a team w tran and rotom AND amoong). tbh i thin k gross coudv even hammered there idk maybe it was too risky and it probably was but hammer = no eq and thats an invitation for sw's gross to come in. the next play is tough because john cant tell if sw has eq cuz even with suit it can run eq seeing as zone helps w ferro, and sw just gets free huge ass chip on the gross. sw then proceeds to make another series of great plays to get rocks up seeing as his clef's hp doesnt matter, at least not as much as rocks. john got rox turn 12 but then again the rotom plays ensured that once clef gets rocks up he was gonna be on the back foot, so he rlly had to get rocks up in return. thats not greed since u cant rlly double, the only 2 things coming in on tran are scor on attack or mana on rocks/attack, so the only double is rotom, but that mon still takes rocks and has to volt/hydro into potential lati while the whole team is taking damage so i dont blame him for rocking. sw again makes the right play but then again that was the only play. if john went gross then he goes to his gross and suits it, ensuring manaphy the win pretty much. the game ended when gross died because sw's scor p much won too. damn if john's gross had eq and the zone died to it on the turn it died to hammer, then at that point john would be in a 7/3 situation. this just shows how 1 coverage move can change the mu of a whole ass game, props to both they played well but sw rlly pushed the limits of his advantage, but w hammer on gross i rlly doubt john couldv done much else except maybe staying in with gross on suit to hammer, but even then a few 5050s were in play. overall great series but damn bruh sw rlly went balls out in this bitch
14. Mounts vs 6. Blackoblivion
SM https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ou-379369
mounts has a very good zard x mu here, it doesnt even have to dd it can just 2ko everything. seeing as diancie is the mega and theres zero good regular lati sets that should be scarfed, so belt/spike gren can potentially put in work for bo esp since diancie literally 2kos everything. the team is kinda weak to sr ferro tho no lie. overall i think its a 6/4 mu in mounts' favor since diancie is only good on paper but it comes in literally on 1 mon that is torn using non uturn, and it never has a reason not to vs that team (or toxic as it was revealed early).
bo leads celes because ig the ferro/lando leads both beat diancie? ig he was forced to lead celes or give up free rox due to atrocious team building, i mena who has a team of 12 things walled by ferro w counter = knockoff prone leech prone steela doin 50 back. anyhow i htink instead of slammin bo shouldv been leeching because either the torn was goin koko then zard or hard zard, since risking flame into ferro is kinda bad (even if ferro comes in to leech, i doubt he wants to trade rocks for 50-60%). bo makes a series of good plays to get lati in, but the very obviously scarfed lati gave up free rocks. i mean if u look at it this way, either zard has no recovery and came inot potential leech (yea if mounts was retarded hed do that), or it was fire ground in which case he switches out of lati regardless if he believes it's scarfed. bo rlly needed to double again to his fire gren or whatever matches up v ferro, instead of dracoing which seems small/necessary, but basically loses him the game here because he proceeeds to fail to gain any momentum afterwards. again, bo goes gren into ferro and still chooses to fire, just hoping and praying that the thing which walls his entire team would stay in. the game pretty much ends here when koko gets the uturn off into knocked off steela, but i guess leeching on ft was throwy cuz what if it missed. bo then stays in w diancie for literally 0 reason. theres no logical reason to spike, because losing gren + a layer of spikes turns mounts' 7/3 gamestate to p much a losing one. gren isnt scarfed since ferro has rocks and lando thus has to be scarfed, so uturn is out of the picture. i guess bo just kind of gave up at this point hoping "what if he overpredicts, i have a gastro" but bruh u need hazards to make aggro plays otherwise he has no incentive not to force ur switch and switch out free of chip. the gunk came in wayyyyy too late and if this was gunk fire to begin with, he shoulda lead it and bluffed scarf gunk, worst case he leads it and fires, takes chip from uturn and does a fuckload to ferro tho this is all theorymon. yea bo's team was rlly fuckin bad, and bascially a team that loses to lead sr cm clef beat a team w 12 things walled by ferro where the 2 hp fire users never even got to hit shit. wow this game was pretty bad.
ORAS https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6ou-379380
this game is tough since cune is good vs the other team while scor is good vs mounts' team if gross dies. pretty standard first few turns but damn bo weak as shit to torn. if tran gets knokced off defensive talon beats half the shit, but literally nothin wants it w torn unless u go lead zor hard into scor which is risky as dick, or u just trick it w lati ig idk u dont need the speed but i think u wanna trick clef/cune more, but then again theresa gross so ull never get to trick. verdict: scarf latis fuckin dogdick in every gen. ok so cune roars the scor away into lati, but why did bo think keld was the play tho. if u predict the clef or the stay in, trick cripples one of the 2 and stops mounts' rocks basically. if ur goal is to win w scor u wanna chip the gross, so u either draco into sacking lati then go uturn w zor whatever (what do u even send out v talon)and not go keld which i guess does decent vs clef to stop rocks and beats the rest play. however gross still beats keld, psyshock, trick, and draco, so why tf wouldnt he go that. actually mb i forgot abut no immediate speed, so why not get the hydro off to potentially put gross at within 2 sr switches. at the very worst u hit torn for 75 and can go from there, playing pussy w the only breaker u had in an already like 2/8 mu rlly wont help. bo's team was so insanely weak to flying types and there happened to be 2 of them on mounts' team, if u replace serp w a rotom he p much wins htat guaanteed because keld fucks that team in the face, its just htat torn fucks him and OH SHIT hp fire tech on gross actually hit lmao ok that gross set is fuckin garbage and if mash didnt raise for another 2 turns that game was over. damn this game was again very bad with very tech heavy teams w glaring holes to general threats, like mounts getting 12-0d by shit like keld + pivots or any sd scor at any point, whereas bo gets fucked by torn w anything for scor.
mediocre series i was hopin for more.
to be continued
some niggas: "nobody trynn see this block of text bruh u old nigga u dont even play quit hatin on these youngins they played their best theres a reason they made it this far .... .. ."
me: title of this music video
The top 8 round had some heaty ass games so ill go over them briefly and highlight some of the most exquisite finesse moves
4. Soulwind vs 5. bro fist
BW https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen5ou-379335
this was a tough game for john right off the bat because sunny zone kills ferro for nite and also due to the looming threat of scarf lando which can uturn on the 1 switchin or eq everything for big damage. in order to break that team john needed to use bandnite/chomp to open up holes but even then the sweeper keld is checked by slowking, while lando revenges the dragons, so mu is about 4/6 against john.
lacking a good scarf uturn mu turn 1 (besides keld) john had to lead toed to put something to sleep, which is a good idea. slowking still walls keld even when sleeping, seeing as it can very likely be scarfed. going ferro on the ferro/chomp possibility was smart, as lando couldv been bad if uturning on a sd or staying in to eq on aqua tail. turn 3 sw makes a great read and predicts the band sp, while also having something to potentially deal with the dd nite (well if it was sub dd sarap from turn 0). sw then makes a great read to eq the switchin because the band nite was the only ground resist, but i think double sping was not a bad play because 3 things weak to sp on the uturn and slowking sleepin/nite needs scale. johns net was p bad tho so the pressure was prolly higher. great double back to nite to catch slowking/ferro, and this time john sp's again thinking that sw might stay in because chomp would be a huge threat with lando gone. this turn was huge because game couldv swayed completely in johns favor if the lando died or ferro died, so great read on sw's part. another trade happens and rocks go up, john needs to win this 5050 otherwise his team wont win the war of trading sacs. this time sw got him again w the leech read PHEWWWWWWWWWWWWW that was pretty fuckin fire. even tho i think maybe john predicted slowking or somethin to come in because this time sp was actually ok since it gets a kill. maybe john feared dd nite of any sort can set up on sp locked nite. john then trades ferro for 2 layers which he couldnt do much about. i think the toed doubling to nite sack was in anticipation of slowking on hiydro > sack nite to dd w aq tail dc chomp and win, which was rlly his only chance at winning at that point. however sw i think knew that toed didnt kill so he wanted to get rid of rain so that exca can still check chomp/put it in eq range of lando, but yea game was p over at that point. tho i think johns first/last superpower/outrage vs swithching out predict couldv been different, its rlly tough to make that play w bad mu, so props to sw for winning the mindgames there. very well played bw game on sw's part
SM https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ou-379352
i think the mu is pretty even here because if lati was ice then gren w spikes can do massive damage, it just takes 1 layer of spikes on the pex coming in and w rocks up, gren wins sooner or later. w defog, scor has an easy time w sw's only other check being his scor.
steelix tech does get rocks v pretty much everything so the zone trap was pretty smart. howeveer, did sw just assume no eq, even tho usually i run a sr ffang slam toxic/dtail set. john overpredicts and wants to do about 40 chip to the incoming scor and slams, and loses steelix very early which couldv been pretty bad because zone is the only other mon besides lati that couldv revenged scor at around half so taking that out wouldv been nice. john scouts the lati to see if it's defog, and the reveal p much shows that his scor can be pretty safe v that team. after a few turns of switching , john ofc cant risk trading burns cuz gren is a huge threat, so he goes lati then scor which is very smart to prevent scald spam from burning anything. john went scor predicting mag/pex to come out, but sw trusts that cain + z cain isnt comin out or tries to see if he can dodge the first cain which does like half, seeing as he can potentially heal up on pex and clef. john's scor pivot is smart because it beats gear/pex coming in, and also forces a sd war to get his gren in, which he does next turn. however, knowing how important spikes are to john sw decides to risk it and kill the gren, that shit was so balls out and payed off very hard because spikes wouldv put on so much pressure. at this point it seems that sw's mag is shift z so that isnt rlly a good mon vs cm clef int he back and pex, so he went zone to put on more pressure. john revelas the unexpected fb and takes out 1 of 2 things that can revenge scor, which is key. tbh i think sw coulda gone to gear because even if torn didnt have fb it couldv knokced the zone off, while gear rlly doesnt do anhything and can still switch into knokc or cain and get off somethin like a free ib fish vs the clef/pex. nvm so it turns out the gear wasnt even av, thats a weird lookin set. a few turns later john again overplays and sw reads that to get the kill on torn w lati, but if he z cained there the game couldv been verrrrry bad for sw since clef hadnt revealed ib yet, in which case john wins w scor. even tho that shit was balls out, it payed off for sw. i forsure think that on turn 30 sw shouldv sd'd again because he had a lead on the opposing scor, and no matter what he was gonna be +4 v +2 so he will get off a +4 hit guaranteed and then lati clicks psychic. the turns after that didnt rlly matter because once john's faster scor got to +2 sw absolutely needed to get another sd from turns 31-34, otherwise he can never be above 69% ish which is the +4 threshold and would die to johns faster +4 scor. overall i think sw kinda threw this game away towards the end despite making some very aggressive plays that payed off (facade on spikes and psy on knock were some HEATY plays phew), while john overpredicted a fair bit and got in a pickle early. thats why u speed creep guys word to cbb
ORAS https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6ou-379364
this shit was a whole ass highlight right here. john has only 2 things faster than mana and everything dies to +3, while sw has a hard time with gross and can only switch around for chip w zone or his own gross. overall sw had the slight mu edge due to scor being able to beat everything once gross dies. about 6/4 in sw's favor.
sw leads lati cuz theres a gross and a tar, best case it does chip and tanks sleep, and well it does just taht. sw takes initiative and goes scor to pressure into gross to hopefully chip it w zone, but that was too obvious as john destroys it w a hammer arm. at this point shit is lookin tough for sw because he rlly needed zone for gross. sw now takes the opportunity to take his kill w mana, and john reveals lack of tpunch (noone runs that shit anyways esp on a team w tran and rotom AND amoong). tbh i thin k gross coudv even hammered there idk maybe it was too risky and it probably was but hammer = no eq and thats an invitation for sw's gross to come in. the next play is tough because john cant tell if sw has eq cuz even with suit it can run eq seeing as zone helps w ferro, and sw just gets free huge ass chip on the gross. sw then proceeds to make another series of great plays to get rocks up seeing as his clef's hp doesnt matter, at least not as much as rocks. john got rox turn 12 but then again the rotom plays ensured that once clef gets rocks up he was gonna be on the back foot, so he rlly had to get rocks up in return. thats not greed since u cant rlly double, the only 2 things coming in on tran are scor on attack or mana on rocks/attack, so the only double is rotom, but that mon still takes rocks and has to volt/hydro into potential lati while the whole team is taking damage so i dont blame him for rocking. sw again makes the right play but then again that was the only play. if john went gross then he goes to his gross and suits it, ensuring manaphy the win pretty much. the game ended when gross died because sw's scor p much won too. damn if john's gross had eq and the zone died to it on the turn it died to hammer, then at that point john would be in a 7/3 situation. this just shows how 1 coverage move can change the mu of a whole ass game, props to both they played well but sw rlly pushed the limits of his advantage, but w hammer on gross i rlly doubt john couldv done much else except maybe staying in with gross on suit to hammer, but even then a few 5050s were in play. overall great series but damn bruh sw rlly went balls out in this bitch
14. Mounts vs 6. Blackoblivion
SM https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ou-379369
mounts has a very good zard x mu here, it doesnt even have to dd it can just 2ko everything. seeing as diancie is the mega and theres zero good regular lati sets that should be scarfed, so belt/spike gren can potentially put in work for bo esp since diancie literally 2kos everything. the team is kinda weak to sr ferro tho no lie. overall i think its a 6/4 mu in mounts' favor since diancie is only good on paper but it comes in literally on 1 mon that is torn using non uturn, and it never has a reason not to vs that team (or toxic as it was revealed early).
bo leads celes because ig the ferro/lando leads both beat diancie? ig he was forced to lead celes or give up free rox due to atrocious team building, i mena who has a team of 12 things walled by ferro w counter = knockoff prone leech prone steela doin 50 back. anyhow i htink instead of slammin bo shouldv been leeching because either the torn was goin koko then zard or hard zard, since risking flame into ferro is kinda bad (even if ferro comes in to leech, i doubt he wants to trade rocks for 50-60%). bo makes a series of good plays to get lati in, but the very obviously scarfed lati gave up free rocks. i mean if u look at it this way, either zard has no recovery and came inot potential leech (yea if mounts was retarded hed do that), or it was fire ground in which case he switches out of lati regardless if he believes it's scarfed. bo rlly needed to double again to his fire gren or whatever matches up v ferro, instead of dracoing which seems small/necessary, but basically loses him the game here because he proceeeds to fail to gain any momentum afterwards. again, bo goes gren into ferro and still chooses to fire, just hoping and praying that the thing which walls his entire team would stay in. the game pretty much ends here when koko gets the uturn off into knocked off steela, but i guess leeching on ft was throwy cuz what if it missed. bo then stays in w diancie for literally 0 reason. theres no logical reason to spike, because losing gren + a layer of spikes turns mounts' 7/3 gamestate to p much a losing one. gren isnt scarfed since ferro has rocks and lando thus has to be scarfed, so uturn is out of the picture. i guess bo just kind of gave up at this point hoping "what if he overpredicts, i have a gastro" but bruh u need hazards to make aggro plays otherwise he has no incentive not to force ur switch and switch out free of chip. the gunk came in wayyyyy too late and if this was gunk fire to begin with, he shoulda lead it and bluffed scarf gunk, worst case he leads it and fires, takes chip from uturn and does a fuckload to ferro tho this is all theorymon. yea bo's team was rlly fuckin bad, and bascially a team that loses to lead sr cm clef beat a team w 12 things walled by ferro where the 2 hp fire users never even got to hit shit. wow this game was pretty bad.
ORAS https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6ou-379380
this game is tough since cune is good vs the other team while scor is good vs mounts' team if gross dies. pretty standard first few turns but damn bo weak as shit to torn. if tran gets knokced off defensive talon beats half the shit, but literally nothin wants it w torn unless u go lead zor hard into scor which is risky as dick, or u just trick it w lati ig idk u dont need the speed but i think u wanna trick clef/cune more, but then again theresa gross so ull never get to trick. verdict: scarf latis fuckin dogdick in every gen. ok so cune roars the scor away into lati, but why did bo think keld was the play tho. if u predict the clef or the stay in, trick cripples one of the 2 and stops mounts' rocks basically. if ur goal is to win w scor u wanna chip the gross, so u either draco into sacking lati then go uturn w zor whatever (what do u even send out v talon)and not go keld which i guess does decent vs clef to stop rocks and beats the rest play. however gross still beats keld, psyshock, trick, and draco, so why tf wouldnt he go that. actually mb i forgot abut no immediate speed, so why not get the hydro off to potentially put gross at within 2 sr switches. at the very worst u hit torn for 75 and can go from there, playing pussy w the only breaker u had in an already like 2/8 mu rlly wont help. bo's team was so insanely weak to flying types and there happened to be 2 of them on mounts' team, if u replace serp w a rotom he p much wins htat guaanteed because keld fucks that team in the face, its just htat torn fucks him and OH SHIT hp fire tech on gross actually hit lmao ok that gross set is fuckin garbage and if mash didnt raise for another 2 turns that game was over. damn this game was again very bad with very tech heavy teams w glaring holes to general threats, like mounts getting 12-0d by shit like keld + pivots or any sd scor at any point, whereas bo gets fucked by torn w anything for scor.
mediocre series i was hopin for more.
to be continued
some niggas: "nobody trynn see this block of text bruh u old nigga u dont even play quit hatin on these youngins they played their best theres a reason they made it this far .... .. ."
me: title of this music video
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