Playoffs Smogon Tour 25 Playoffs - Finals [Won by blunder]

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1. ABR VS. 16. FLCL
clear highlight. flcl brings hard hitting shit across all 3 whereas abr specializes in having the right cores to be able to maneuver around things in such a way that he chokes them out in a divide and conquer approach that harkens back to when julius caesar used skarmory alongside a cursing rock type to counter all forms of curselax. it works pretty well and i dont see much stopping his 2+ year hot streak now. that said flcl is one of 2 finalists from last season and consistently plays fiercely which makes him a contender in any game with his powerful teams so its a series to watch out for. looking forward to see how flcl will try to predict/avoid/subvert/outmaneuver/overpower abrs general tactics

2. Ojama VS. 15. Elodin
bw game will either be a complete stomp in ojamas favor (45%), close-ish but generally commanded by elodin (30%), or a very close back-and-forth ojama takes a solid win from (15%). interested to see what theyll bring. ojama looks clearly better in sm/bw although i think elodin is no slouch there and the teams will be strong on both sides. burger can be kinda hit or miss so i think oj is quite favored

3. Empo vs 14. Mounts
empo goes big or goes home in sm/oras usually barring the occasional ferro starmie clef lopunny team with twaves galore. hes one of those guys who always gets oras starmie to work because it just fucking burns and paralyzes everything. mounts plays a steady solid game. oras game will be a treat but i think mounts' slower more consistent approach will win out over empos fast-paced instant gratification style. both have a habit of looking like fish out of water aka the best bojack episode in bw and i think its kinda split which direction that goes in although again leaning toward mounts juuust a little. expecting some outside teams and some tier-centric shakiness. both are great at sm but empo might be a little more at home, however mounts has shown excellence there as well so he has a legit shot and thus seems to be pretty favored overall. has his work cut out for him though, italian empoleon is a strong player. expecting an alright to great series

4. SoulWind vs 13. undisputed
on one side, ost finals as well as killer tour records in sm + oras and well-known for his longtime dominance of bw while making what feels like his 50th tour playoff appearance. hes always got access to the latest and best teams around so i wouldnt bet on him getting outmatched in that department. on the other side, while not known for sm and oras at all undisputed has shown up pretty big in bw and has a pretty darn good pokemon track record himself. pretty hard to go against sw though. overall if dumb shit (ymmv) doesnt happen we are nearly guaranteed an excellent back-and-forth series

5. bro fist vs 12. Mix
mix is strange cause he asks everyone whos ever played in a tournament for the team they used yet 99% of the time chooses to only use the stupid ones. wait thats bro kappa my bad, although i still might not be wrong. obviously theres also the unflattering italian associations so that with the puzzling team choices makes this one wildcard of a series. that said i still think the dont-be-stupid approach has the higher chance of winning out in the face of lets-see-what-happens variance

6. Blackoblivion vs 11. Googly
cannot wait for 2 wacky stall teams + whatever pops up in bw. probably goth rain stall or something. i'm sure bo will go with his usual hard-hitting bo that tends to shred through defensive stuff while having a solid backbone and that kinda consistency tends to work if you play smart which he does thus earning the bold here but googly seems to have a knack for pulling wins out of his ass in the unlikeliest of scenarios so whos to say

7. Blunder vs 10. Odeio Stall
maybe i'm just out of the loop but i have legitimately never heard of this (apparently brazilian) phenom. ive heard tell of some fishy stuff lol god have mercy. anyway as it so happens my insight is restricted to blunder, as aways, looking pretty strong, and also as always, having top tier teams to choose from

8. We Three Kings vs 9. Energy
laurel can play normally but tends to simultaneously have his head in some totally weird fucking airspace which can translate to the battle and also tends to use bullshit in bw whereas w3k is pretty solid and no nonsense teamwise across the 3 while never taking himself out of games and being just aggressive enough to thwart someone who might think he just switches back and forth with his thumb up his ass
 
1. ABR vs. 16. FLCL
2. Ojama vs. 15. elodin
3. Empo vs. 14. Mounts
4. SoulWind vs. 13. undisputed
5. bro fist vs. 12. Mix
6. Blackoblivion vs. 11. Googly
7. blunder vs. 10. odeio stall
8. We Three Kings vs. 9. Energy
 

CTC

Banned deucer.
is a defending SPL Championis a Two-Time Past SPL Championis a Two-Time Past WCoP Champion
Big Chungus Winner
DONDICTIONS

Predictions r useless in a game heavily dictated by chance but there’s still levels to this shit
for player types ill be referring to https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/the-sorting-dex.3630899/

ABR v FLCL: yall gonn call me crazy but this is not by chance. Flcl clickin ass is unpredictable as shit and will go for some hair pullin ass luck plays and will never not click twave etc. that being said, abr should still outplay, he is the better player and isn’t unlucky. However, brains says abr but gut says flcl cuz he’s gonna pull some stupid ass shit since abr prepares very mu heavily and with respect to the meta, flcl might just pull some heat and pull this upset cuz don’t get me wrong he can make big plays and he is good enough as to not get outplayed like some of the bads in playoffs.
Technical analysis:
This is a classic thinker v clicker mu with abr donning the CRV player type vs fooly's NPV/NPX style of clickery. one is calculated while the other is intuitive, so itll be easy for abr to seize momentum in good mu (which abr does better than anyone else) but hard to overcome bad mu since u already know fooly clickin supereffective moves every turn. reactive vs proactive playmaking favors fooly because CLICKITY CLICK, but he has the foresight to know when to click. the last category of team building goes to abr cuz his teams are generally better rounded but those r speaking in terms of vs meta threats, so what if fooly brings some sunflora heat who knows. consistency, teambuilding, and playing the odds wise abr trumps flcl in all 3 but hey my gut tells me fooly takes this 2-1 curtesy of


Ojama v Elodin: kingpin kingpin kingpin just jumped over dumpman, I mean how tf is elodin even in playoffs this man sposed to be banned after foolishly challenging the goat to banbattle bo3 but I generously allowed him to remain. Having known elodin from carrying him spl6 and also having known Ojama from facing him/watching i can tell the skill difference is immense, and I’ll be shocked if this one turned out to be an upset
Technical analysis:
ojama i think is a classic CPV while elodin is probably a NRX. respectively, one is a well rounded player whos versatile and unpredictable while the other is more turn by turn and predictable both in style and building. this shit sways heavily in ojamas favor but then again u never know if elodin can swig one off ojama's plate to make it at least a worthwhile 2-1

Empo v Mounts: lesser of the two evils. These two rlly r middle of the road ass players and this pelicans v blazers ass matchup won’t be seeing much hype nor will it live up to the hype it won’t have. U ever heard Eminem’s album w Royce da 5’9 from way back in the day “bad meets evil”? Well this shit is “bad meets badder”
idk much about these 2 but empos garbage and cheeses while mounts i think i roasted for being bad in spl so yea idk bad meets badder sums it up

Soulwind v Undisputed: swoaty is just too good at these gens, and even in his weakest of the 3 aka oras undi still doesn’t have an edge cuz tho he’s a good player iirc st tiers moved past adv and dpp a few years back no shade. On top of that swoaty playing at peak performance LeBron James in this bitch he could potentially win 3 this year that’s unheard of since hugoat (and abr technically within a year’s span)
Technical analysis: swoaty is one of the most consistent and good players for a long time, boasting a CPX type while undi idk what his is and have insufficient data to conclude. however undi has been rlly good in old gens and that translated well to him making playoffs in these new gens, so ill assume he carried his calculating approach and proactive style, making him also a CPX. this is a mirror but sw has the edge of having played newgens longer and probably being just better at newgens (partly due to experience). prolly goin to be 2-0 if sw wins game 1

Bro fist v Mix: John is one of the top players across all 3 gens and mix is one of the players of the 3 gens. That about sums it up
technical analysis: classic CPX and one of the best and most consistent mans of all time. mix a clicker and the skill diff is there, johns not gonna lose this shit maybe 1 to mu so 2-1

BlackOblivion v Googly: bo played pretty well in spl and he made it to st finals so im gonna assume he is pretty consistently competent. Googly only cheeses. For the sake of smogon do not let cheesers get any amount of clout and accolades
idk much about both but iv seen bo play pretty solidly and aggressively while using some non standard shit, so i can say hes CPV while googly plays aggro stall which makes him NPX so idk i think this favors the all arounder with heat techs. bo 2-1

Blunder v Odeio Stall: year after year I been said “blunders gettin this shmoney” but Lady Luck time and time again has foiled his attempts. This time I’m gonna say fuckit and reverse jinx him into winning it all. Blunder has the highest highs of this entire player pool meaning he can outplay the fuck outta anyone here, but my nigga can also fall victim to one clickin ass move or one instance of luck, but hopefully the hotheaded 7godblundboi can overcome the autism (no shade, blunders mons prowess and shortcomings i believe is some form of autism) and get buckets this tour. Btw odeio stall is like 12 or some shit if he wins I’m recruiting IDM odeio as my new protege
technical analysis: blunder also a CPX supposedly but plays more like a NPX some days, but if he can keep a cool head,,, nah no way hes winning, dude got stall in his name this guy a bonafide CRX idc what anyone says goatdeio stall winnin 12-0

We Three Kings v Energy: toughie cuz idk too much about w3k but Iv seen decent games involving dude and his teams/playstyle is solid aka not too good or bad. On the other hand laurel can make some heat plays and tkae games off top players but can also play absolutely dogshitly like that one game in spl, so this one is a toughie, givin it to the more consistent lookin guy off gut.

side note: i think most of the consistent mfs trump the clickers in these mus but flcl is an exception because hes able to play amazing games showcasing that he knows how to play and thinks ahead but i guess he only thinks like 2 turns ahead and not THAT far so yea maybe im givin him too much credit. however my gut tells me he just matches up very well vs abr out of everyone in this entire round with the exception of blunder and maybe soulwind.
i think the top 4 players of this round are in no order abr blunder soulwind john but id be surprised if any of them got eliminated EXCEPT abr and blunder cuz they got matched vs goats.

BLUNDER LOSIN r1 BROS REVERSE JINX HIM
oh yea btw i made a spreadsheet for the probability of each player's chances of winning check it out *SPOILER ALERT*
 
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Hi CTC,

Instead of flaming Empo and I & writing huge walls of text pointing at each little mistake committed by players who know their shit (picked in spl, reached advanced stages of multiple official tournaments), why don't you play a bit of pkmn ?

To me and to many people who started playing in tours relatively recently, you're just the dude who invented AV Spiritomb with Rock Tomb and Icy Wind. What an incredible feat. So yeah, please join the race next time, lack of time & effort isn't an excuse given the effort you put in your analysis !

Tenderly yours,

A middle ass road player
 

CTC

Banned deucer.
is a defending SPL Championis a Two-Time Past SPL Championis a Two-Time Past WCoP Champion
Big Chungus Winner






middle of the road = average. i dont make assumptions my goatnalyses r based on empirical evidence. brodie u lost vs anyone half decent while getting donated vs nihilie, who i think i can splatter peanut butter on my keyboard and let my dog lick it and itll still click the right buttons to beat, znain, who is average like urself so props for that, and xray, who is the definition of "filler" spot in tournaments much like clippers or raprors in the playoffs year after year. i mean no shade brodie but u need 2 put up numbers first cuz im p sure av tomb w icy wind and tomb has a higher winrate on ladder than u do in spl (btw that set is genius thanks for reminding me)
sincerely, your OG's OG
 
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Lavos

Banned deucer.
1. ABR (SM, ORAS, BW) VS. 16. FLCL - really not close, flcl is great at the live tour aspect and makes some crazy plays but abr is on another level and it would be crazy to give the edge to fooly in any of these. don't get me wrong, flcl is a very good player and deserves to be here, he just got handed the hardest possible matchup. not to mention abr's hungry to add another color of trophy to his rapidly growing collection.
x factor: that fucking liepard team

2. Ojama (SM, ORAS) VS. 15. Elodin (BW) - very hard to predict against ojama, i was tempted to give him the clean sweep but elodin has really impressed me with his ability to think through his games and make the most of matchup advantages. if there is any tier where he can knock off the kingpin, it's bw. however the skill and experience gap is probably insurmountable in the other 2 gens, ojama's sm in particular is very impressive and i expect him to be a prime contender for the trophy this year.
x factor: anything can happen between spl teammates

3. Empo (SM, BW) vs 14. Mounts (ORAS) - empo's oras has never really impressed me, he falls into the trap of many good but not great players where he'll overextend his team to compensate for a particular weakness and leave himself exposed to a surprise factor that he didn't account for. however, sm is somewhat more forgiving in that regard, and as long as he keeps his builds solid he should take that one. bw will almost certainly be the decider and in that i favor empo for his trademark aggressiveness which often pays the greatest dividends in 5th gen.
x factor: can empo pick 3 teams in a row that aren't complete garbage?

4. SoulWind (ORAS) vs 13. undisputed (SM, BW) - undisputed should be a higher seed this year but couldn't earn points during week 8 as the result of a very questionable decision, so this matchup by all rights shouldn't have happened but i am so glad it did. this is by far the highlight series of round 1 and the comparison/contrast between the two players is incredible. both these competitors have made several very deep runs in previous smogon tours but could never take home the trophy, however soulwind's following has seemingly continued to grow with exclamations of "goat" with every double switch he pulls, whereas undisputed has largely flown under the radar, quietly establishing himself as one of the top sm ou players while still being favored for his old gen prowess in team tours. both also have strong roots in bw so i am expecting a highly competitive series. however based on recent play alone i give the edge to undisputed, he has been playing truly no-holds-barred whereas soulwind always maintains a cautious style in game openings and will only take risks when pressured. a great matchup and one to watch live if possible.
x factor: soulwind breaks his computer getting haxed by mael in ost finals, and this series never happens

5. bro fist (SM, ORAS, BW) vs 12. Mix - very little to say about this one, bro fist is obviously an established talent whereas mix seems to be more of a live tour specialist who can never get it together in a true series. prove me wrong?
x factor: the permanent burden of ciele's power rankings, which will be with john for the rest of his days

6. Blackoblivion (SM, ORAS) vs 11. Googly (BW) - oblivion is really spectacular in sm and oras, he is one of those players who almost never chokes a lead away and his consistent balanced style with both offensive and defensive tools on every team should reward him against googly's often goofy playstyle and near ubiquitous utilization of odd threats on every team. bw is most conducive to that sort of thing so i'll give that one to googly, but i'm expecting convincing victories for bo in the other two. kind of a weird matchup, they are almost stylistic opposites.
x factor: blackoblivion's europoor internet

7. Blunder (SM, ORAS, BW) vs 10. Odeio Stall - jesus fucking christ. rey and eo died for this?
x factor: blunder in playoffs

8. We Three Kings (SM, ORAS, BW) vs 9. Energy - ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
x factor: laurel plays coked up at a party while all his friends watch and cheer him on, lending him the strength he needs to reach victory.

pretty good games overall, may the best player of the worst gens win :blobwizard:
 
Too many good games, won't bother with predictions and guesses. So many deserving a trophy. I'll go with FLCL/blunder/empo to win this tour, they deserve.
 
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