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Playoffs Smogon Tour 25 Playoffs - Finals [Won by blunder]
- Thread starter Luigi
- Start date
- Status
GO BRS
ELODIN VS ODEIO - FINAL
ELODIN VS ODEIO - FINAL
Go empo, blackoblivion, and elodin! Hf all!!
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Diophantine
Banned deucer.
ABR v FLCL
Ojama v Elodin
Empo v Mounts
Soulwind v Undisputed
Bro fist v Mix
BlackOblivion v Googly
Blunder v Odeio Stall
We Three Kings v Energy
Ojama v Elodin
Empo v Mounts
Soulwind v Undisputed
Bro fist v Mix
BlackOblivion v Googly
Blunder v Odeio Stall
We Three Kings v Energy
you're welcome for the memeDONDICTIONS
Predictions r useless in a game heavily dictated by chance but there’s still levels to this shit
for player types ill be referring to https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/the-sorting-dex.3630899/
ABR v FLCL: yall gonn call me crazy but this is not by chance. Flcl clickin ass is unpredictable as shit and will go for some hair pullin ass luck plays and will never not click twave etc. that being said, abr should still outplay, he is the better player and isn’t unlucky. However, brains says abr but gut says flcl cuz he’s gonna pull some stupid ass shit since abr prepares very mu heavily and with respect to the meta, flcl might just pull some heat and pull this upset cuz don’t get me wrong he can make big plays and he is good enough as to not get outplayed like some of the bads in playoffs.
Technical analysis:
This is a classic thinker v clicker mu with abr donning the CRV player type vs fooly's NPV/NPX style of clickery. one is calculated while the other is intuitive, so itll be easy for abr to seize momentum in good mu (which abr does better than anyone else) but hard to overcome bad mu since u already know fooly clickin supereffective moves every turn. reactive vs proactive playmaking favors fooly because CLICKITY CLICK, but he has the foresight to know when to click. the last category of team building goes to abr cuz his teams are generally better rounded but those r speaking in terms of vs meta threats, so what if fooly brings some sunflora heat who knows. consistency, teambuilding, and playing the odds wise abr trumps flcl in all 3 but hey my gut tells me fooly takes this 2-1 curtesy of
Ojama v Elodin: kingpin kingpin kingpin just jumped over dumpman, I mean how tf is elodin even in playoffs this man sposed to be banned after foolishly challenging the goat to banbattle bo3 but I generously allowed him to remain. Having known elodin from carrying him spl6 and also having known Ojama from facing him/watching i can tell the skill difference is immense, and I’ll be shocked if this one turned out to be an upset
Technical analysis:
ojama i think is a classic CPV while elodin is probably a NRX. respectively, one is a well rounded player whos versatile and unpredictable while the other is more turn by turn and predictable both in style and building. this shit sways heavily in ojamas favor but then again u never know if elodin can swig one off ojama's plate to make it at least a worthwhile 2-1
Empo v Mounts: lesser of the two evils. These two rlly r middle of the road ass players and this pelicans v blazers ass matchup won’t be seeing much hype nor will it live up to the hype it won’t have. U ever heard Eminem’s album w Royce da 5’9 from way back in the day “bad meets evil”? Well this shit is “bad meets badder”
idk much about these 2 but empos garbage and cheeses while mounts i think i roasted for being bad in spl so yea idk bad meets badder sums it up
Soulwind v Undisputed: swoaty is just too good at these gens, and even in his weakest of the 3 aka oras undi still doesn’t have an edge cuz tho he’s a good player iirc st tiers moved past adv and dpp a few years back no shade. On top of that swoaty playing at peak performance LeBron James in this bitch he could potentially win 3 this year that’s unheard of since hugoat (and abr technically within a year’s span)
Technical analysis: swoaty is one of the most consistent and good players for a long time, boasting a CPX type while undi idk what his is and have insufficient data to conclude. however undi has been rlly good in old gens and that translated well to him making playoffs in these new gens, so ill assume he carried his calculating approach and proactive style, making him also a CPX. this is a mirror but sw has the edge of having played newgens longer and probably being just better at newgens (partly due to experience). prolly goin to be 2-0 if sw wins game 1
Bro fist v Mix: John is one of the top players across all 3 gens and mix is one of the players of the 3 gens. That about sums it up
technical analysis: classic CPX and one of the best and most consistent mans of all time. mix a clicker and the skill diff is there, johns not gonna lose this shit maybe 1 to mu so 2-1
BlackOblivion v Googly: bo played pretty well in spl and he made it to st finals so im gonna assume he is pretty consistently competent. Googly only cheeses. For the sake of smogon do not let cheesers get any amount of clout and accolades
idk much about both but iv seen bo play pretty solidly and aggressively while using some non standard shit, so i can say hes CPV while googly plays aggro stall which makes him NPX so idk i think this favors the all arounder with heat techs. bo 2-1
Blunder v Odeio Stall: year after year I been said “blunders gettin this shmoney” but Lady Luck time and time again has foiled his attempts. This time I’m gonna say fuckit and reverse jinx him into winning it all. Blunder has the highest highs of this entire player pool meaning he can outplay the fuck outta anyone here, but my nigga can also fall victim to one clickin ass move or one instance of luck, but hopefully the hotheaded 7godblundboi can overcome the autism (no shade, blunders mons prowess and shortcomings i believe is some form of autism) and get buckets this tour. Btw odeio stall is like 12 or some shit if he wins I’m recruiting IDM odeio as my new protege
technical analysis: blunder also a CPX supposedly but plays more like a NPX some days, but if he can keep a cool head,,, nah no way hes winning, dude got stall in his name this guy a bonafide CRX idc what anyone says goatdeio stall winnin 12-0
We Three Kings v Energy: toughie cuz idk too much about w3k but Iv seen decent games involving dude and his teams/playstyle is solid aka not too good or bad. On the other hand laurel can make some heat plays and tkae games off top players but can also play absolutely dogshitly like that one game in spl, so this one is a toughie, givin it to the more consistent lookin guy off gut.
side note: i think most of the consistent mfs trump the clickers in these mus but flcl is an exception because hes able to play amazing games showcasing that he knows how to play and thinks ahead but i guess he only thinks like 2 turns ahead and not THAT far so yea maybe im givin him too much credit. however my gut tells me he just matches up very well vs abr out of everyone in this entire round with the exception of blunder and maybe soulwind.
i think the top 4 players of this round are in no order abr blunder soulwind john but id be surprised if any of them got eliminated EXCEPT abr and blunder cuz they got matched vs goats.
BLUNDER LOSIN r1 BROS REVERSE JINX HIM
oh yea btw i made a spreadsheet for the probability of each player's chances of winning check it out *SPOILER ALERT*
Abr vs Flcl
Ojama vs Elodin
Empo vs Mounts
Soulwind vs Undisputed
Bro Fist vs Mix
Blackoblivion vs Googly
Blunder vs Odeio Stall
We three Kings vs Energy
Ojama vs Elodin
Empo vs Mounts
Soulwind vs Undisputed
Bro Fist vs Mix
Blackoblivion vs Googly
Blunder vs Odeio Stall
We three Kings vs Energy
ABR v FLCL
Ojama v Elodin
Empo v Mounts
Soulwind v Undisputed
Bro fist v Mix
BlackOblivion v Googly
Blunder v Odeio Stall
We Three Kings v Energy
Ojama v Elodin
Empo v Mounts
Soulwind v Undisputed
Bro fist v Mix
BlackOblivion v Googly
Blunder v Odeio Stall
We Three Kings v Energy
Won, ggs
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen5ou-377216
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ou-377222
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6ou-377224
[23:04:11] +undisputed: I played really well and should've won 2/3
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen5ou-377216
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ou-377222
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6ou-377224
[23:04:11] +undisputed: I played really well and should've won 2/3
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The line SW edited in to his win post is taken out of context purely to taunt me.
I'm proud of the games I played this series. I put a lot of effort into practicing and preparing, and I think it showed in those games. I believe I played really well. Y'all can watch the replays and judge for yourselves.
I'm proud of the games I played this series. I put a lot of effort into practicing and preparing, and I think it showed in those games. I believe I played really well. Y'all can watch the replays and judge for yourselves.
GOATNALYSIS
Swoaty v Undisputed
i think sw played this series out very well with maybe jsut ONE or TWO mistakes or plays i disagree with across three games, thats very impressive. according to undi he also "played very well" but here we will analyze how he in fact threw away the series in which he had 2 games of superior matchup. I don’t doubt he prepped hard and played as best he could but in my predictions I said his experience or lack thereof would be his downfall in this series and it showed up in,,, well all 3 games (no shade, just the harbinger of objective analysis)
G1 BW: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen5ou-377216
this game looked very bad for sw right at lead mu, where id say its a bout a 3:7 in undi's favor. breloom coulda been the devastating toxic orb set and straight up demolished in the mid game, or take out 1 mon + save sash for revenge if its sash. however, it turns out that the loom was scarfed, which beats p much 5/6 things, so this shit should not even have been close. turn 1 lando falls asleep, and seeing as sw had no other leads vs possible sash loom, lando was the only option. sw probs couldnt tell what set the loom is just from lead spore since rocks lando is usually p slow, and sash loom can even be jolly which outspeeds most landos. turn 3 is a good play by undi but i retrospect seeing as he is scarf loom he had no reason not to make the plays he made 1-3 so its more attributed to the team structure (not sayin he didnt make the good plays tho). from the position of turn 3 soulwind is looking very bad because if that is sash loom he can get nailed by a potential focus punch w rachi, but that was the only play anyways. superpower comes out revealing scarf, and undi even goes ferro to get more chip on the slam or just to get up rocks. tbh at this point with rain up the thund easily walls zone and destroys the low rachi, so saccing ferro is questionable, but hey i guess rocks which is resisted by everythign but rotom is still good to have up for thund later on (which still ohkos everything bar rotom). but then again it makes sense undi just didnt realize zone usually has sunny day on weatherless maybe? sacking ferro for rocks a tiny bit of chip for loom makes sense, considering that undi lacked the experience to know that theyr all chople sunny day. however, why even risk chople tho, turn 9 was where undi makes a game turning play by tossing out the loom. i get that u can miss fblast but whats zone doing back tho? even more impressively u can go toed then thund and thunder into fb or double thunder if no bulk zone, since he cant go lando fearing agility. turn 10 hes forced to fb cuz no accurate moves or anything that guarantees the kill which gives band rak a kill there. i hope undi doesnt consider this sw lucking him cuz id say hitting fb cancels out w hitting 2 sedges. turn 15 i think dude shoulda gone for the roll because no way rotom vswitches, and hydro doesnt kill, so ps is the only play therefore giving u a chance to go for roll/confuse there. on the other hand i think he wanted to keep torn 100% so keld cant just surf sweep? idk i think cain is the play since he was already in a bad position. turn 16 i like the willow which will make it hard for tenta to solo the keld forever in rain, and also hitting thund bringing it into surf range. unfort it misses. double protect is unfortunate, but i think sw woulda just gotten more chip then clicked hydro til he died then gone for rslide if he had it w rak. not that big of a deal since undi didnt elect to set up on the possible sedge miss and killed terrak instead. i think turn 25 sw had to wish, so that hurricain is a good play ebcuase of crit/confuse chances, then going thund to try and set up. maybe this isnt even agility and is sub 3 attacks, but i think he has agility since loom and torn are the breakers and he needs some sort of boosting sweeper late game seeing as he can get rid of lati w scarf spore, also bslam damage suggests heavy bulk investment and modest thunder damage, therefore props to kevin s for at least maximizing his late game chances from maybe dodging a hydro at 20% to dodging slam para or hydro at just over 50%. i wouldnt say that the chances were good for kevin s tho objectively speaking, sure the willow dodge and double tect arent that big unless rak had slide, but its not like luck was in sw's favor because it was about 5050 the whole time. undi def threw this game in the dumpster tho.
G2 SM: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ou-377222
id say mu is about 4:6 in favor of undi here, seeing as lati has to be 3 att w ib fire or undi loses to kart, and if u have fire why wouldnt u have ice for scor on a fat team like this. moreover the rotom trick tech is amazing for zygarde. on the flip side reuni can sweep if scor is damaged or is defog, and zyg isnt z. undi can avoid the reuni sweep easily tho between setting up alongside w zyg/scor or tricking it. overall undi has more wincons since lati beats the entire team after clef is tricked and reuni is low. (gren no recovery)
this game played out pretty standard cuz i dont think sw coulda done much different. get up hazards and go to town w reuni, but undi def shouldnt have allowed reuni such a head start then gone to scor cuz why wouldnt u just go scor immediately tho, also sw's only misplay was signal beaming because the mosn that beat reuni are the two grounds, rotom tricked its item away, lati loses to shock even w cm, so theres no reason to ever signal. if he psyshicked the scor then the odds were even more in his favor. overall i think 1 para in liek 5 or 6 turns is reasonable, even tho its the worst turn it coulda parad on. thi sgame was p str8 forward. If I look hard enough I can make an argument for undi allowing the setup w reuni and then paralyzing it to force sw into sacking it to scor, but it’s so risky that he had no business putting himself in a risky position in this kind of matchup. Realistically the only way he loses after the t1 trick is if sw played immediately aggro w gren and hit every target w the right move (zone on ferro) and kept reuni for late game setup vs lati. Besides that sw rlly didn’t have a chance this game and I wouldn’t say undi “played well” besides that lead trick
G3 ORAS: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6ou-377224
Looking at mu if sw is mega zam and has taunt knock scor with band tar in the back then this mu is very very favorable for sw, but not unwinnable for undi because of the looming threat of megabro late. However Kevin s let hazards go up after getting skarm knocked and taunted, does make a good play to bait whip w keld (I think sw coulda gone zap on keld as a midgroujd for sword/skarm but in retrospect that play is risky if undi changed sets from the original team), but BAFFLING is the fact that he didn’t even defog the hazards away when sw got TWO layers of spikes and rocks up v stall. Undi must not know how stall works but u def don’t trade hazards, unless his plan was to kill the non mega zam with sharp and then pray that his slowbro beats the opposing mega bro? Or was he hoping hat the mega is tar and his bisharp+keld would win because other than those assumptions I don’t see any reason to trade hazards. Sw reveals the cm zam tech and proceeds to 6-0 and this shit wasn’t even close. 8=8
TLDR
G1: near unlosable mu but undi gave chances
G2: near unlosable mu but undi gave chances, but it worked out
G3: near unlosable mu but sw gave 0 chances
I don’t think u can argue undi outplayed sw in this series, to any degree. There’s def no argument that he “deserved” 2 wins considering the surprisingly even luck, and having 2 games of good mu and walking out w an L ain’t somethin to brag about.
No shade tho, objective analysis
Side note: my dudes been tellin me Mounts is a nice dude and that I was being a bitch for being mean so mb brodie I support u v Empo cuz that dude actually a poopyhead
Swoaty v Undisputed
i think sw played this series out very well with maybe jsut ONE or TWO mistakes or plays i disagree with across three games, thats very impressive. according to undi he also "played very well" but here we will analyze how he in fact threw away the series in which he had 2 games of superior matchup. I don’t doubt he prepped hard and played as best he could but in my predictions I said his experience or lack thereof would be his downfall in this series and it showed up in,,, well all 3 games (no shade, just the harbinger of objective analysis)
G1 BW: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen5ou-377216
this game looked very bad for sw right at lead mu, where id say its a bout a 3:7 in undi's favor. breloom coulda been the devastating toxic orb set and straight up demolished in the mid game, or take out 1 mon + save sash for revenge if its sash. however, it turns out that the loom was scarfed, which beats p much 5/6 things, so this shit should not even have been close. turn 1 lando falls asleep, and seeing as sw had no other leads vs possible sash loom, lando was the only option. sw probs couldnt tell what set the loom is just from lead spore since rocks lando is usually p slow, and sash loom can even be jolly which outspeeds most landos. turn 3 is a good play by undi but i retrospect seeing as he is scarf loom he had no reason not to make the plays he made 1-3 so its more attributed to the team structure (not sayin he didnt make the good plays tho). from the position of turn 3 soulwind is looking very bad because if that is sash loom he can get nailed by a potential focus punch w rachi, but that was the only play anyways. superpower comes out revealing scarf, and undi even goes ferro to get more chip on the slam or just to get up rocks. tbh at this point with rain up the thund easily walls zone and destroys the low rachi, so saccing ferro is questionable, but hey i guess rocks which is resisted by everythign but rotom is still good to have up for thund later on (which still ohkos everything bar rotom). but then again it makes sense undi just didnt realize zone usually has sunny day on weatherless maybe? sacking ferro for rocks a tiny bit of chip for loom makes sense, considering that undi lacked the experience to know that theyr all chople sunny day. however, why even risk chople tho, turn 9 was where undi makes a game turning play by tossing out the loom. i get that u can miss fblast but whats zone doing back tho? even more impressively u can go toed then thund and thunder into fb or double thunder if no bulk zone, since he cant go lando fearing agility. turn 10 hes forced to fb cuz no accurate moves or anything that guarantees the kill which gives band rak a kill there. i hope undi doesnt consider this sw lucking him cuz id say hitting fb cancels out w hitting 2 sedges. turn 15 i think dude shoulda gone for the roll because no way rotom vswitches, and hydro doesnt kill, so ps is the only play therefore giving u a chance to go for roll/confuse there. on the other hand i think he wanted to keep torn 100% so keld cant just surf sweep? idk i think cain is the play since he was already in a bad position. turn 16 i like the willow which will make it hard for tenta to solo the keld forever in rain, and also hitting thund bringing it into surf range. unfort it misses. double protect is unfortunate, but i think sw woulda just gotten more chip then clicked hydro til he died then gone for rslide if he had it w rak. not that big of a deal since undi didnt elect to set up on the possible sedge miss and killed terrak instead. i think turn 25 sw had to wish, so that hurricain is a good play ebcuase of crit/confuse chances, then going thund to try and set up. maybe this isnt even agility and is sub 3 attacks, but i think he has agility since loom and torn are the breakers and he needs some sort of boosting sweeper late game seeing as he can get rid of lati w scarf spore, also bslam damage suggests heavy bulk investment and modest thunder damage, therefore props to kevin s for at least maximizing his late game chances from maybe dodging a hydro at 20% to dodging slam para or hydro at just over 50%. i wouldnt say that the chances were good for kevin s tho objectively speaking, sure the willow dodge and double tect arent that big unless rak had slide, but its not like luck was in sw's favor because it was about 5050 the whole time. undi def threw this game in the dumpster tho.
G2 SM: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ou-377222
id say mu is about 4:6 in favor of undi here, seeing as lati has to be 3 att w ib fire or undi loses to kart, and if u have fire why wouldnt u have ice for scor on a fat team like this. moreover the rotom trick tech is amazing for zygarde. on the flip side reuni can sweep if scor is damaged or is defog, and zyg isnt z. undi can avoid the reuni sweep easily tho between setting up alongside w zyg/scor or tricking it. overall undi has more wincons since lati beats the entire team after clef is tricked and reuni is low. (gren no recovery)
this game played out pretty standard cuz i dont think sw coulda done much different. get up hazards and go to town w reuni, but undi def shouldnt have allowed reuni such a head start then gone to scor cuz why wouldnt u just go scor immediately tho, also sw's only misplay was signal beaming because the mosn that beat reuni are the two grounds, rotom tricked its item away, lati loses to shock even w cm, so theres no reason to ever signal. if he psyshicked the scor then the odds were even more in his favor. overall i think 1 para in liek 5 or 6 turns is reasonable, even tho its the worst turn it coulda parad on. thi sgame was p str8 forward. If I look hard enough I can make an argument for undi allowing the setup w reuni and then paralyzing it to force sw into sacking it to scor, but it’s so risky that he had no business putting himself in a risky position in this kind of matchup. Realistically the only way he loses after the t1 trick is if sw played immediately aggro w gren and hit every target w the right move (zone on ferro) and kept reuni for late game setup vs lati. Besides that sw rlly didn’t have a chance this game and I wouldn’t say undi “played well” besides that lead trick
G3 ORAS: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6ou-377224
Looking at mu if sw is mega zam and has taunt knock scor with band tar in the back then this mu is very very favorable for sw, but not unwinnable for undi because of the looming threat of megabro late. However Kevin s let hazards go up after getting skarm knocked and taunted, does make a good play to bait whip w keld (I think sw coulda gone zap on keld as a midgroujd for sword/skarm but in retrospect that play is risky if undi changed sets from the original team), but BAFFLING is the fact that he didn’t even defog the hazards away when sw got TWO layers of spikes and rocks up v stall. Undi must not know how stall works but u def don’t trade hazards, unless his plan was to kill the non mega zam with sharp and then pray that his slowbro beats the opposing mega bro? Or was he hoping hat the mega is tar and his bisharp+keld would win because other than those assumptions I don’t see any reason to trade hazards. Sw reveals the cm zam tech and proceeds to 6-0 and this shit wasn’t even close. 8=8
TLDR
G1: near unlosable mu but undi gave chances
G2: near unlosable mu but undi gave chances, but it worked out
G3: near unlosable mu but sw gave 0 chances
I don’t think u can argue undi outplayed sw in this series, to any degree. There’s def no argument that he “deserved” 2 wins considering the surprisingly even luck, and having 2 games of good mu and walking out w an L ain’t somethin to brag about.
No shade tho, objective analysis
Side note: my dudes been tellin me Mounts is a nice dude and that I was being a bitch for being mean so mb brodie I support u v Empo cuz that dude actually a poopyhead
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