Smogon Tour Season 28 Playoffs - Finals


@FMG shut
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16. McMeghan (BW, ORAS) VS. 4. Quaze (SM) - McM seems to stick to tried-and-true teams in SM which is an understandable approach to the tier but is one I don’t expect to hold up against Quaze’s superior teambuilding support from the italians which in combination with his playing ability should give him a solid edge. ORAS is a tier many consider to be Quaze’s best but Im not particularly impressed by it and I think Roro’s experience and comfort in the tier should be enough for him to take it. Not much to say about BW, Roro’s easily one of the best bwers of all time while Quaze hasnt shown enough proficiency in the tier to be bolded against such a tough opponent.

2. ABR (ORAS, SM) VS. 3. SoulWind (BW) - Very hype matchup between 2 of the most consistent STour qualifiers of recent time, SoulWind’s playing ability and building in BW is unmatched and despite ABR having become a BW powerhouse himself over the course of the years I don’t see SW losing this one. ORAS is once again the closest to being a toss-up of the three in my eyes, both have similar styles and have historically good results but I feel ABR is much more comfortable in the tier and will be 1 step ahead in the building department. Regarding SM I’m not a fan of how SW often relies on similar balance cores and structures which are usually surefire wins against weaker opponents but is something I expect ABR to take advantage of, decent edge altho it wouldn’t surprise me if SW took either SM or ORAS and made finals again

winner of sw vs abr to take the trophy oo


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16. McMeghan (BW 70-30, ORAS 55-45) VS. 4. Quaze (SM 45-55) - Definitely the more volatile of the two mus. First is the vet McM attempting to keep the 16th seed alive and cement himself as a skilled player in gens 1-7 after coming off his recent classic win. His opponent quaze, who is the 4th seed, also finds himself in semis after (afaik) not having played in this sort of high-level environment for a while. Starting in BW, going to have to pick McM as this is the gen he is best known for out of the 3. Going 3-1 in classic poffs whilst using the same team multiple times speaks volumes to his fundamental skill and experience in this gen. Only question mark here was raised last round vs John W, as after seeming to be in a winning position, made some questionable and overall passive plays leading to John fighting his way back into the game. A crucial edge miss however saved McM from an undetermined end game. Quaze has also shown to be knowledgeable of the bw metagame, picking up an overall well played win vs Malekith r1 despite a lucky crit and a questionable rapid spin. His r2 game vs FMG though was quite the dumpster fire, as he was possibly bailed harder than anyone I've seen before. A turn that I'm still scratching my head about now is when he toxiced a +2 reuni that was going to sweep him, and he did not even have a worry seed user in the back. FMG also made a questionable cm play which allowed him to be encore locked the next turn. The shitty sportsmanship alongside that bw game is not helping Quaze's case as I set this a pretty comfortable 70-30 win in McM's favor. Not much to go on in ORAS for quaze but he did accumulate 23 points during the regular season in this gen alone so I have high hopes this will be a close game. McM brought Mega Tar + Drill back to back weeks showing a preference in his ORAS builds. After a solid win vs Finch r1, I am willing to overlook the loss to the underdog John W as his mu was pretty tough with the twave ice beam bro + heracross combination. Finally in SM, Quaze has pulled back to back dominant wins due to some solid prep and good mus. McM similarly is 2-0 but his games looked much more shaky. Bailed like his bw game last round, Finch missed a crucial roll + an important edge leading to his loss. In his r2 SM game McM somehow got away with qding turn 2 with volc and bluffing hp ground vs a heatran. Confidence is probably the most discerning factor between these two players as McM is not afraid to bring some pretty wacky teams accompanied by some flashy plays that throw opponents off guard. Quaze on the other hand falls back on some pretty consisent balance builds in SM as well as cheesing bw with some celepass. Gonna go with the more consistent pick in SM as of late in Quaze, but I do see things being scary for quaze if he can't pull a good mu and is forced to outplay.

2. ABR (SM 60-40,BW 50-50) VS. 3. SoulWind (ORAS 45-55,BW 50-50) - Think everyone can agree that these 2 are the best cumulative gen 5-7 players on this site so it is always a special treat to see them go head to head. Not gonna go to in depth with this mu bc of how even these two guys are but I'll mention a bit about each tier. SM is imo ABR's best gen of the 3, with a perfect balance of solid builds + cheeky techs, prepping will be p tough for SW. ABR also somehow has the ability to will the game into his favor. It's already hard to gain an advantage vs him, but his comeback potential and ability to stay cool if things aren't looking well is one of his strongest attribute as a top player. SW is of course an excellent SM player as well. With a team choice that echoes Ojama, styled towards consistency, SW rarely finds himself facing an unbeatable mu. He knows the importance of gaining early momentum and staying on the offensive which for me, distinguishes the good players from the BEST players. My ORAS pick defo may be controversial to most, but I do like SW in this mu as long as he doesn't bring more alt stall. ABR made his name off of ORAS, and is no slouch, but I feel if SW pulls a decent mu, and scouts for the array of ABR techs he puts on his ORAS builds, he should be in a fine position. SW is more aggressive by nature, and in a tier like ORAS where ABR favors bulky builds that hate playing from behind, an early momentum advantage could be all thats needed to secure the win. Giving BW a 50-50 for who wins since they both have such varied team choice and playstyles that makes it hard to pinpoint any weaknesses. Hoping for a tight series and please no BW sun tyyyyy.

predicts looked p dry for this round so quickly wrote this up, sry for all the grammatical errors i prolly made but too lazy to proofread
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16. McMeghan VS. 4. Quaze - Despite another excellent SM performance from McMeghan, he surprisingly threw BW and let John W do what he wanted in ORAS. He should've lost that series, but even then, McMeghan will be the favorite here. Quaze was even more behind in his BW game than John W was, but somehow brought it back. It's hard to blame Quaze for staying in with Celebi, as Scarf Latios + regular Rotom-W is a reasonable guess, but his own Latios was technically free, and Celebi was incredible in the matchup, so an error nonetheless. In SM he took control early and rode a great matchup to a win. I definitely think FMG could've played better in both games, but Quaze deserved the win regardless. McMeghan will have to sharpen his gameplay to progress further, but everyone knows he's probably the best in the game when he does. I've been very impressed with his SM, and despite the throw, he's a clear favorite in BW too. Quaze has showed up with good meta picks so far, and if he continues to be smart with his team choices, he can definitely take this series if McMeghan isn't up to par, but the Belgian has reliably shown up when he goes deep in tournaments, and his recent trophy shows he's still got it, even if this isn't the best format for him. Regardless of who wins though, they won't be favored...

2. ABR VS. 3. SoulWind - ...against either of these two, the most prominent tour players for the last three years or so. Both players have been very convincing on their route so far. ABR kept his cool when Lopunny Kicks got a pretty large advantage in ORAS after a timely crit, and outplayed his way to a win, while controlling SM despite what seemed like a close endgame. SoulWind had a drop a game, but played extremely well in the other two against Pohjis. When going head-to-head, ABR is favored in the two most recent tiers, while SoulWind has BW. I don't think the advantages are very big, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if all three games went the opposite way. I think ABR has the info advantage as well, not having to play BW so far and reveal whatever metagame pick he has in store this time around. SoulWind has also started reusing previous playoff builds, meaning ABR could take note and open the history books if he wants to. I think ABR has been let off the hook too easy so far, as he's been allowed to run his typical builds without repercussions, but SoulWind won't allow that. I hope and believe the winner of this series win the entire tournament, as they're more deserving of their first tour trophy than McMeghan is of his second, and while SoulWind with a trophy is what the spectators on Smogon wish for the most, I've previously predicted that ABR ends Gen8 as the most accomplished player on the site (so something like 4 individual trophies), and I believe he grabs his second here.
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RIP Ladybug GANG :(
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I have already decided who the finalists are gonna be as well as the victor, if you're Anime Only then DO NOT click on the spoiler below:


You may think this tournament is a test of skill between hard-working competitors who put their time and efforts in to give their best possible performance but in reality, it is just an orchestration of yours truly meant for entertainment purposes only.​


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Before the series plays out I wanna make a last min prediction (goatnalysis coming I promise)

McM will beat Quaze and SW will beat ABR. Though mcm has shown signs of carelessness and hasn’t been playing his best mons thus far, he is by far better than Quaze and shows top level prowess ie his sm game last round. ABR is the best performer thus far having not even come close to losing a game, and has generally not made misplays. However, somethin tells me this one is bobo’s tour, and also SW has such a calculated aggressive style and solid teams that ABR can’t just cruise by any longer by staying in on everything to chip and waiting for scrubs to throw away their mons.
Sad semi-final for our man Soulwind
Game 1 : Freeze
Game 2 : The end was a sleep coinflip

Whatever, well play both, I hope we will have a great final.
honestly not surprised at all. as tho from my limited pov sw is among the goats especially in bw but on a normal day abr beats anyone in any tier. i dont think hes got them super flashy plays or sets(except for if hes up to smashing bengay w kiss or some bs like that) but hes just way too consistent for anyone being a competition to what i think is a perfect symbiosis of accurate team building as well as excellent ingame positioning. still rooting for mcm tho as old gens = best gens.despite hoping abr is continuing to step up in old gens as hes definitely a threat in any gen he touches which is always fun to watch especially w great competition around.

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