Smogon Tour Season 28 Playoffs - Semifinals

1. Finchinator VS. (McMeghan VS. Xray) - This can honestly go either way because all these players are capable. I think roro will win vs xray in BW, ORAS will be close, and idk about SM. I was left with a bad taste in my mouth last season when McMeghan attacked SW's pex turn 1 (whatever season that was actually idr), but i have reason to believe his SM skills have improved. Xray is obviously good at ORAS and to a less degree than that at BW, and decent at SM. The winner of this has to play Finchinator who is pretty well rounded overall in BW/SM/ORAS compared to the two but I think McM has the best odds in winning BW+ORAS, winning here
2. ABR VS. 15. RedEmption - This should be a pretty straightforward win for ABR here, Imo Redemption is overrated: his team choices are poor most of the time and his playing skills are mediocre [from what ive seen]. His opponent isnt new to this tour at all, has a higher skill ceiling overall and is probably more motivated to win this season. Expecting a 2-0 win here
3. SoulWind VS. 14. Malekith - SoulWind is due for a win here and I think he is more favoured because of his insane motivation he has going into this. i think he won't let his guard down to potential cheese malekith might bring. anyway both of these dudes are more than good so this can go either way ultimately
4. Nichiru VS. 13. Empo - Yeah, this should be pretty straightforward as well. Nichiru has been cheesing more than half his games in the tour although he does know what he is doing pretty well. anyways, i dont think you can really expect to go far with cheesing empo. I would give him an edge in BW *maybe*, but I think ORAS and SM are empo's pretty confidently due to experience and skill level (should also note that nichiru has just been recycling others' teams this entire tour).
5. Quaze VS. 12. ima - ima is probably favoured here, quaze isnt bad but i think ima brings better teams and is a bit more skilled. this could go to 3 games for sure
6. FMG VS. 11. Lusa - hm, this is probably the most even closest to 50-50 MU imo, i would say FMG is slightly more favoured though. fmg does have the team advantage as he is pretty creative with his SM teams from what ive seen and as well lusa has been just reusing teams kind of like what i said for nichiru. could go either way, expecting a 2-1 win from fmg here
7. Pohjis VS. 10. Adri - idk much about either to make that good of a prediction (in OU). i think pohjis is definitely favoured as he is better rounded as a player.
8. Lopunny Kicks VS. 9. John W - pretty big edge to punny here, i think he's the better player, good building support, and has more experience
Can u shut up nerd


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RE: Nichiru

Situation: During week 5 of the regular season a user approached me asking me to investigate Nichiru, since they believed this to be an alt due to their recent join date and success in the tour up to that point. At the time I did the basic alt-checking procedure we do when we suspect someone is an alt, just the bare-bones stuff and didn't find anything damning. We didn't pay this any more attention until week 9 of the season, where Nichiru was poised to make playoffs with a good showing in the final tours. He did end up making playoffs and at this point the investigation was restarted with much more care put into it. After 1 day of investigating we were convinced Nichiru was an alt, but didn't know of whom. Earlier today we were able to find out that indeed Nichiru is the alt of a banned user that won't be named so as to not encourage other banned users to make alts.

Result: Nichiru is forum banned and disqualified, everyone below him in the standings moves up one spot. The new playoffs bracket is:

1. Finchinator VS. 16. McMeghan
2. ABR VS. 15. xray
3. SoulWind VS. 14. RedEmption
4. Quaze VS. 13. Malekith
5. FMG VS. 12. Empo
6. Pohjis VS. 11. ima
7. Lopunny Kicks VS. 10. Lusa
8. John W VS. 9. Adri
The deadline will also be pushed back 1 week to allow people time to prepare for their new matchups.


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Head TD
I saved up my predictions post knowing get backer wouldn't let anything happen to Smogon Tour.. :psywoke:

1. Finchinator VS. 16. McMeghan - McBoomer frequently wakes up sweating at 4 am after an intense nightmare about Z-moves brutally robs him of a good night's rest. I do favor Roro in BW when he's using some Scizor stuff he's probably used in three public replays already (despite Finch also being very comfortable there), but Finch's consistent success in SM and ORAS compared to Roro's preference for old gens make me think he'll come out on top. Finch's standard and arguably predictable team selection could prove fatal if Roro can prepare creative stuff that does well against them, though.

2. ABR VS. 15. xray - I think xray's ORAS is very good, but I think his level drops quite a bit in the other two tiers. ABR has gradually been improving in every single OU metagame and especially his BW is a lot better now than it was when he first started regularly qualifying for these playoffs; he's won a live tournament in all three metagames this season. I'd be very surprised if ABR lost this bo3.

3. SoulWind VS. 14. RedEmption - SoulWind probably has the biggest edge among all pairs for me here. I don't think he'll be threatened by RedEmption's playing level whatsoever, though he should be wary of extreme counterstyling/matchup fishing as I'm sure Red has a massive French army backing him up here. SoulWind also quietly played very well in Snake this season and is obviously about as experienced as it gets in Smogon Tour.

4. Quaze VS. 13. Malekith - Daddy... This is an interesting matchup between two unexpected qualifiers. Quaze vanished from the scene after WCoP 2018 and Malekith kind of stumbled into these playoffs just because he had a few free nights available and managed to score big early on in the season. That said, Malekith is way ahead of Quaze in terms of experience and a big threat in all three tiers assuming he's motivated to actually do well.

5. FMG VS. 12. Empo - I like both players but I rate Empo a bit higher across all three gens, especially in terms of consistency. I feel FMG can play very well on a good day but that Empo has had quite a bit more of those good days throughout the year. FMG could definitely take this series, but I think Empo takes this bo3 more often than not. I'm expecting some filthy teams Empo, don't let us down..

6. Pohjis VS. 11. ima - Pohjis. It's actually crazy how consistently comfortable of a time Pohjis has had qualifying for individual tournaments this year. ima is coming off a great Snake season but I've also seen ima play ORAS in WCoP... Pohjis leads the BW circuit in points this year and I think he has all the right teams ripped and stolen right into his builder to overcome Uxie Cloyster in BW and Chansey Skarmory Weavile in ORAS.

7. Lopunny Kicks VS. 10. Lusa - I actually had the pleasure of managing Lusa in the prestigious POCL this year and I've seen up close he's a good ORAS player in particular. He's obviously played in WCoP too and those of you that play untours like me will know he's won a LOT on the Brazilian forums. Having said that, Lop Kicks has really impressed the past year and I think he's a step further than Lusa in terms of playing ability. I'm sure Nintendi's Diancie Volcarona is gonna cause some trouble in ORAS, though!

8. John W VS. 9. Adri - This is fun matchup between two players that have really started knocking on the proverbial door this year. I'm going with Adri here because of how consistent he's been across all three metagames the past few seasons of Smogon Tour. After ending 17th in the standings for the past two seasons he's kept at it and finally made it in this time. I know him as a dedicated player that won't take these playoffs lightly after getting to know him during WCoP on Team Europe, so I don't doubt he'll be prepped and ready to go.

Good luck to everyone and let us know when you're playing! :blobwizard:

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