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OU SPL XVII - RBY Discussion

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SPL XVII Introduction
Schedule
Spreadsheet

Hiiiii RBYers! With SPL XVII underway, ten teams will be competing for the glorious red trophy. This thread will be used to discuss RBY related topics, whether it’s about the players, power rankings, metagame trends, match analysis, and so on. Teams, replays, and usage stats can be found here.

Auction Results:
1767490714684-png.798377

Pricelist

RBY Player Cores (likely starters in Bold, manager support in Italics):
Alpha Ruiners - SaDiSTiCNarwhal, Prinz
Circus Maximus Tigers - Laroxyl, Genesis7
Congregation of the Classiest - Ctown6, M Dragon, London Beats
Cryonicles - Sceptross, Gilbert arenas
Dragonspiral Tyrants - LNumbers, BlazingDark, SoulWind, ABR
Ever Grande BIGS - Serpi, Mako, Larry
Indie Scooters - nicole7735, emma
Stark Sharks - GirlsSeeGhosts, mind gaming
Team Raiders - BeeOrSomething, Vileman
Wi-Fi Wolfpack - Isza, violet river
26.5k - Serpi
12k - nicole7735
10.5k - BeeOrSomething
10k* - Sceptross
6.5k - Isza
5.5k - Laroxyl
3k - Ctown6, GirlsSeeGhosts, LNumbers, SaDiSTiCNarwhal
-
 
SaDiSTiCNarwhal (USA) - Alpha Ruiners
splxvii_ruinersm-png.799528

2-6 SPL RBY | 2nd SPL as RBY Starter
9-10 Invitational
36-15 RBYPL/RBYWC
#20 Pokemon Perfect Rankings
Winter Seasonal 2023 Champion | Global Championship 2022 Champion | Summer Seasonal 2020 Finalist

Laroxyl (ITA) - Circus Maximus Tigers
splxviitigers2-png.799521

0-1 SPL RBY | 1st SPL as RBY Starter
8-6 Invitational
Invitational IV Semifinalist | RBY Circuit 2024 Champion | Global Championship 2024 Finalist

Ctown6 (USA) - Congregation of the Classiest
splxvii_classiestf2-png.799523

0-0 SPL RBY | 1st SPL as RBY Starter
6-8 Invitational
RBY Rising Stars 2023 Champion | Summer Seasonal 2023 Finalist | Winter Seasonal 2022 Finalist | Winter Seasonal 2023 Semifinalist | Summer Seasonal 2022 Semifinalist

Sceptross (PRT) - Cryonicles
splxvii_cryoniclesm-png.799533

10-10 SPL RBY | 3rd SPL as RBY Starter
15-9 Invitational
#17 Pokemon Perfect Rankings
Invitational IV Semifinalist | Invitational II Semifinalist | Winter Seasonal 2024 Finalist | Ladder Tournament 2024 Semifinalist | Global Championship 2024 Semifinalist

LNumbers (GER) - Dragonspiral Tyrants
splxviityrants2-png.799519

2-5 SPL RBY | 2nd SPL as RBY Starter
0-2 Invitational
RBY Rising Stars 2025 Champion | RBY Cup 2022 Finalist

Serpi (GER) - Ever Grande BIGS
splxvii_bigsm-png.799531

30-17 SPL RBY | 6th SPL as Starter
16-10 Invitational
49-15 RBYPL/RBYWC
1x OTT Champion
Global Championship 2025 Champion | RBY Circuit 2025 Finalist | Ladder Tournament 2025 Champion | Invitational VI Semifinalist | Winter Seasonal 2024 Champion | Ladder Tournament 2024 Champion | Summer Seasonal 2024 Champion | Global Championship 2023 Champion | Winter Seasonal 2021 Champion | RBY Circuit 2023 Finalist | RBY Cup 2023 Finalist | Global Championship 2022 Finalist | Summer Seasonal 2022 Semifinalist | Invitational II Semifinalist | RBY Cup 2021 Semifinalist | Summer Seasonal 2021 Semifinalist

nicole7735 (NZL) - Indie Scooters
splxviiscooters-png.799515

4-5 SPL RBY | 2nd SPL as RBY Starter
9-7 Invitational
18-14 RBYPL/RBYWC
Invitational V Finalist | Summer Seasonal 2023 Champion

GirlsSeeGhosts (CAN) - Stark Sharks
splxviisharks-png.799513

0-0 SPL RBY | 1st SPL as RBY Starter
0-0 Invitational
17-6 RBYPL/RBYWC
Summer Seasonal 2025 Champion | Global Championship 2025 Finalist | RBY Circuit 2025 Semifinalist | Tutored by emma

BeeOrSomething (USA) - Team Raiders
splxvii_raidersm-png.799525

0-0 SPL RBY | 1st SPL as RBY Starter
3-2 Invitational
20-12 RBYPL/RBYWC
RBY Cup 2025 Semifinalist | RBY Circuit 2025 Quarterfinalist | RBY Cup 2024 Semifinalist

Isza (USA) - Wi-Fi Wolfpack
splxvii_wolfpackf-png.799529

5-5 SPL RBY | 2nd SPL as RBY Starter
8-6 Invitational
Invitational V Semifinalist | RBY Cup 2024 Finalist

Tier 1
Serpi (GER) - Ever Grande BIGS
Sceptross (PRT) - Cryonicles
nicole7735 (NZL) - Indie Scooters

Tier 2
BeeOrSomething (USA) - Team Raiders
Laroxyl (ITA) - Circus Maximus Tigers
Isza (USA) - Wi-Fi Wolfpack
Ctown6 (USA) - Congregation of the Classiest
SaDiSTiCNarwhal (USA) - Alpha Ruiners
LNumbers (GER) - Dragonspiral Tyrants
GirlsSeeGhosts (CAN) - Stark Sharks​
 
Week 1 predicts (copying soda's formatting because I'm ripping her off and thought it was a good idea)

LNumbers > Laroxyl.
Probably going to be a slow burn set given that both of their playstyles tend to be very defensive from what I've seen. I feel like that matchup of styles will naturally favor Laroxyl as the veteran, because it's exactly the type of matchup Laro is comfortable with while having the better resume in recent years. However, LNumbers has been branching out in the teambuilder quite a bit (very very recently!), and with BD + Soulwind + ABR support, I think LNumbers' approach could be very surprising to us, Laro included. My mind says Laro is favored, but my gambler heart thinks we could get an early upset this week.

Sceptross > Bee.
Sceptross is a scary player, probably one of the strongest instinctive players in the tournament. A lot of matchups that would be favored into him feel nullified by somehow getting every tauros double/whatever read exactly right. I think Bee's offensive style will naturally matchup well into scept proactive game though, so I don't think this'll be a wash. Probably a very dynamic exciting set. Even if he loses as I predict, I think Bee will put up a great fight that will foreshadow future wins.

Narwhal > GirlsSeeGhosts
GSG has had a big year. I think on paper he's comparable to Narwhal based on credentials, but sophomore SPLs tend to be a bit more consistent than debuts. I think the prior experience with the tournament will give Narwhal the edge. Kind of a weak/lazy analysis tbh, but I feel like I haven't seen Narwhal play much comparatively this year, which makes it hard to judge. How does the Narwhal of the past I'm told about match up to the GSG of today? I honestly have no idea, so hopefully this game will give me something to latch onto for future weeks so I can write something more substantial.

Serpi > Ctown
The experience gap makes it difficult not to go with Serpi here, obviously he's been incredibly consistent and dominant for years, so I don't think an upset is likely.

Nicole = Isza
Two players who have been a little quiet the past few months, but I have no doubt have been doing rocky esque carrying of logs through the snow and other such chicanery. Still, I haven't seen them play much admittedly (being new to the scene and all), and credentials make them about equal, so how am I supposed judge who wins without my superficial metrics? This will be one I'll just have to go into expectations free and just see what happens I suppose.
 
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No insight again but here are my week 2 predictions.

Sceppy > Isza
Clark > Ctown
Serpi > Narwhal
Gsg > Bee
Nicole > Laro

I think this week is going to be very hype and w/e. I have yet to watch last weeks replays but im going to do it some time this afternoon. Told myself i wasnt gonna engage with SPL much because i usually dont really care about tours like this but holy shit there being so many people in the tier 2 (Referring to the tiers Emma put together in the OP) actually made me enjoy the 1 or 2 sets i managed to catch. Its no longer the old guard playing each-other for the thousandth time.

Im personally very excited to watch Nicole v Laro and Gsg v Bee in specific this week.
 
Last week I was 1/5 :(, let's do better this time!

Sceptross > Isza
Both players coming off of losses, but I think Sceptross' loss was less due to mistakes in the "pure" sense and more Bee having his number (good prep and punishing some of his riskier plays hard with a little luck). Isza I think made some bigger overall errors (cloy passivity g1 and letting tauros take unnecessary status/hits early on), so based on what I saw as well as what I wrote up in week 1, I think Scept will take this.

LNumbers > Ctown
Extremely tilting g1 for LNumbers last week, and I think that showed in his play g2, which I don't begrudge at all (my laptop would be halfway out the window if I had to play that). I think it'd be silly to take that set as anything indicative of what's to come though, so I still feel comfortable putting my exeggcutes in his camp, and predict he'll be coming back for blood after some distance from it.

Serpi > Narwhal
Nothing really new to say here, just being boring and going with the more decorated/established player.

BeeOrSomething > GirlsSeeGhosts
Bee had a great debut game. He almost got in trouble for the ice chansey + psyblizz mie thing (in the sense that traditional surfbolt on his team would've won on the spot), but such overcooks indicate a capacity to cook in the first place + mindfulness towards prep, which I believe will carry him to victory if he reigns it in a tad ;). The GSG Narwhal set had some cracks on both sides in terms of play imo, whereas Bee played pretty solidly throughout vs sceptross, so I feel confident in this prediction.

Nicole > Laroxyl
Felt like Nicole played well in her set. The Laroxyl set was pretty one sided obviously, so hard to judge there, but I'll be leaning towards Nicole based on what I've seen so far + greater spl experience. I have a feeling this will be a good one.
 
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Quick one because I'm sleepy and have been putting this off : l (4/5 last week!!!)

Narwhal > LNumbers
As I predicted, LNumbers came back with a vengeance last week with some very decisive wins, but I'm not quite ready to put him over Narwhal just yet (he won the rockets set after all!). I think Clark has the potential to boost up quite a bit throughout this tournament, which I'm excited to potentially see here.

Isza > GirlsSeeGhosts
Instinctively I want to put Isza below GSG based on the sheet, but that would be glib and churlish. Isza entered the season after a break into two of the strongest players in the tournament, and what rust I saw in week 1 seemed to be shed by week 2. It's important to keep perspective and not rely too much on recent sheet results when making these predicts.

That said, it's hard to ignore GSG's recent wins. He's definitely punching quite a bit above his power ranking (my only wrong predict last week)! One more upset and I'll have to stop calling GSG's wins "upsets" and probably start predicting in his favor. Until then it's very likely he makes a fool out of me once again (my third time betting against him, and perhaps my third mistake).

Serpi > Bee
Gerpi (see previous predicts), but I'm rooting for Bee.

Nicole > Sceptross
Two dominant sets last week. Nicole I was less familiar with, but she firmly demonstrated her place in the top 3 of this tournament. I also think these two play with each other a lot, so perhaps there will be some 4d tortles techs. I think knowing each other's playstyles/philosophies so well may lead to some true builder insanity in an effort to mix things up and fall out of predictable lines, so definitely the match of the week to look out for imo.

Laroxyl > Ctown
Laro still looked very good in defeat, so I don't have much reason to doubt the higher ranked player here.

And with that I fall to slumber, good night and thank you for reading :pikuh:
 
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Was 1/5 last week.

Bee > Clark
Laro > Narwhal - Laroxyl kinda the goat if he isnt playing serpi i feel.
Nicole > Ctown - Nicole gaps. Sorry Cloyster Town
Serpi > Isza - Serpi the goat lmao. I feel like if Isza gets lucky through reads or actual rng they can bring it home tho.
Sceppy > Makelith - Im gna be real i dont know who makelith is. He is getting rocked.
 
I'm going to be more brief in my predictions now because I think I'm going to start repeating myself more and more as the weeks go on. I might start diving into statistics and trends and such now that we have a couple rounds of data to do some actual analysis.

Anyway, here we go:

BeeOrSomething > LNumbers

Narwhal > Laroxyl
I've liked Narwhal's play, and I think his aggressive style may match up well into Laro's defensive style. Laro's team choices have also been fairly conservative (minus the back jolt!), so I think it's more likely that Narwhal can look for a good matchup potentially. To Laro's credit he did bring some aggression/mixups last week, but it may also be tempting to lean on some comfort after coming off of a loss. Definitely think an upset is possible here.

Nicole > Ctown

Serpi > Isza

Sceptross > Malekith
Interesting one, I've heard legends of Malekith from DPP, and their smogon account is very old, so they've surely booted up a copy of Pokemon red now and again. I'm excited to see what they can do.
 
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Predictions:
Sceptross > Serpi
Nicole > Girls See Ghosts
Laroxyl > Bee
Isza > LNumbers
Ct0wn > Narwhal
Scept vs Serpi is of course the highlight match (perhaps of the entire season!). When these two faced off last year in SPL, they each brought Rhydon 5/6 times, and I expect nothing less here given that both players prefer what some (not me!) would call "boring teams." Those naturally lend themselves well to Don's strengths I think, as you don't have to worry as much about the less common but absolutely devestating pokemon that rip Don structures apart.

Which leads me to something else:

Usage Winrate
| Zapdos | 20 | 26.32% | 45.00% |
| Rhydon | 18 | 23.68% | 55.56% |

Per week 3 (too lazy to do stats including w4). Rhydon teams seem to be doing very well for themselves thus far, while zap is slightly lower than others. This is corroborated by RBYPL usage stats, which show a similar divide in the bo5 slot, where the better players generally played. There are flaws with these statistics of course (the bo35 set between scept/spies, general issues with winrate as a stat, low sample size in the SPL statistics), but I think it's something worth looking out for, especially given that these Zap vs Don discussions have been floating around the forums for a couple months now. Perhaps there are some flaws in Zap teams that have gone unnoticed (at least by me), and I'll be trying to pay extra attention to these two. Perhaps the data is cooked and things will normalize though, idk, only time will tell.
 
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dangerk1d said:
Per week 3 (too lazy to do stats including w4).
Click to expand...
lucky for us the stats are done for you and rhydon apparently gigaflopped in w4 as it's now sitting at 48% wr

the only mons with positive winrates are jynx and gengar, this is fairly in line with latest trends as it seems people haven't really figured out how to maximally punish these structures. worth noting lead jynx is sub 50% wr too, but it jumps highly positive when you add in backjynx, so whoever's loading back jynx has probably figured out good structures that are hard to beat w it

we are in jynxgar dominance era until people figure out a strong counterstructure to either/both
 
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