Metagame [SPOILERS] ULTRA SM - Speculation & Discussion

[PenguinGengar]

What do you all think of Mamoswine?

Honestly, even though it didn't gain anything new, this thing looks promising since it takes on so many of the predicted new threats (Gliscor, Naganadel, AV? Tyranitar, Klefki) and things that have been running around OU for a while anyway (Landorus-T, Toxapex, Tapu Koko, Heatran, maybe some Magearna) based on typing alone.

The standard OU set does a lot more in USUM with the newer threats in place, but if someone has an idea for a better set feel free to share:

Mamoswine @ Life Orb
Ability: Thick Fat
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Earthquake
- Ice Shard
- Icicle Crash / Icicle Spear
- Stealth Rock / Knock Off

 

[OldAmberPlays]

So, if AV Ttar is really going to be a set and not a meme, I think it should be like this:

Tyranitar @ Assault Vest
Ability: Sand Stream
EVs: 248 HP / 180 SpD / 80 Spe
Careful Nature
- Rock Slide/Stone Edge
- Pursuit
- Earthquake
- Avalanche

----------------------------------------
0 Atk Tyranitar Pursuit vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Blacephalon: 186-218 (75 - 87.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
-----------------------------------------
+2 252 SpA Naganadel Devastating Drake (195 BP) vs. 248 HP / 180+ SpD Assault Vest Tyranitar in Sand: 213-252 (52.8 - 62.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

0 Atk Tyranitar Avalanche vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Naganadel: 286-338 (99.6 - 117.7%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO (with sandstorm damage, it's gone)
-----------------------------------------
-1 0 Atk Tyranitar Avalanche vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Landorus-T: 324-384 (101.2 - 120%) -- guaranteed OHKO
-----------------------------------------
0 Atk Tyranitar Rock Slide vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Charti Berry Volcarona: 294-348 (94.5 - 111.8%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO (again, with sandstorm, it's gone)

+1 252 SpA Volcarona Savage Spin-Out (175 BP) vs. 248 HP / 180+ SpD Assault Vest Tyranitar in Sand: 302-356 (74.9 - 88.3%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
-----------------------------------------
80 EV's in Speed is to outrun Mega Mawile and do AT LEAST this:

0 Atk Tyranitar Earthquake vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 154-182 (58.3 - 68.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
-----------------------------------------
If the Speed EV's are unecessary, so move it to Sp.Def or Def (56 is enough to endure a Adamant Lando-T's EQ and kill it with Avalanche), but I think it's fine the way it is. Tell me what you guys think about it :)

 

[IronedSandwich]

Speaking of going to ubers - Ultra Necrozma will obviously be banned and Dusk Mane Necrozma will probably but what else?

Personally I doubt Poipole, Stakataka and Naganadel* will but Blacephalon, Dawn Wings Necrozma and Zeroara I'm unsure about, and who knows, maybe Toxapex will become such a meta-defining force it becomes bannable.

*at least, I don't think it's as likely as the ones i listed as unsure about

 

[Selihido]

Speaking of going to ubers - Ultra Necrozma will obviously be banned and Dusk Mane Necrozma will probably but what else?

Personally I doubt Poipole, Stakataka and Naganadel* will but Blascephalon, Dawn Wings Necrozma and Zeroara I'm unsure about, and who knows, maybe Toxapex will become such a meta-defining force it becomes bannable.

*at least, I don't think it's as likely as the ones i listed as unsure about

It’s a debatable point obviously but my guess is all the new necrozma forms will be banned (Kyurem B was a pretty rare case from my understanding). Naganadel is definitely an “on the fence” thing that will be hotly debated at the start of the meta at the very least. The clown, zeraora, and pex will certainly be in OU for the foreseeable future. But it’s all speculation at this point, so who knows - maybe we’re dumb for even trying to guess.

 

[Of Moose & Men]

Yes, both Necrozma forms will start off banned, same happened to Kyurem who only fell due to being tested.

Only way we will see Dawn Wings Necro is through a suspect test. Until then, it will be Ubers.

WAY too early to speak on anything else.

 

[TheMohZone]

Speaking of going to ubers - Ultra Necrozma will obviously be banned and Dusk Mane Necrozma will probably but what else?

Personally I doubt Poipole, Stakataka and Naganadel* will but Blascephalon, Dawn Wings Necrozma and Zeroara I'm unsure about, and who knows, maybe Toxapex will become such a meta-defining force it becomes bannable.

*at least, I don't think it's as likely as the ones i listed as unsure about

the Necrozmas will go to Ubers straight off as is the norm. They (read: Dawn Wings, the dissapointment) could be resuspected at a later date. The rest will start in OU and work their way down tiers or be banned, until they settle, like any other pokemon in any other gen.

 

[Gary]

As Finch said in SQSA thread, both Necrozma forms will start off in Ubers, regardless of what people think of them on paper. This is how its been every generation; all cover legends are automatically banned regardless of BST, shitty movepools, typing, etc. It's just like a precautionary measure. Now if, and that is IF, the council decides that one of the Necrozma forms is very underwhelming and could potentially be balanced in OU and the tier doesn't currently have any other broken Pokemon to worry about, than yeah it could drop. But just remember, even Kyurem-B started off in Ubers before dropping to OU. No matter how bad the Pokemon may look, it's going to start off in Ubers.

All of the other Pokemon that are being released are fair game though, so basically; Naganadel, Zeraora, Blacephalon, Poipole (this mon is LC lol), Stackataka, and w/e else I missed. Obviously Ultra Necrozma will start off in Ubers too because lol hello.

 

[INSANE CARZY GUY]

Kommo got a lot of great coverage, it has a fairly decent defensive typing, defensive abilities and isn't weak to rocks - could it be possibly a great CB Mon, similar to Zygarde?

Usually in SM, CB Kommo would suck due to not having something like DrainPunch/CC in its arsenal, but right now I see a CloseCombat spamming "Terrakion" with an actually useful defensive typing(Bug, Water, Fire, Grass, Dark resists):

Adamant Variant

EXAMPLE:
Close Combat
Iron Head/PoisonJab
Outrage/ThunderPunch/Earthquake
Ice Punch

calcs

-1 252+ Atk Choice Band Kommo-o Ice Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Landorus-Therian: 348-412 (109 - 129.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Kommo-o Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 132+ Def Celesteela: 225-265 (56.5 - 66.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery(Protect though)
252+ Atk Choice Band Kommo-o Outrage vs. 252 HP / 192+ Def Toxapex: 160-189 (52.6 - 62.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Kommo-o Iron Head vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Tapu Lele: 324-382 (115.3 - 135.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Kommo-o Close Combat vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 163-193 (48.9 - 57.9%) -- 96.9% chance to 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Kommo-o Close Combat vs. 200 HP / 0 Def Magearna: 255-300 (72.6 - 85.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252+ Atk Choice Band Kommo-o Ice Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Tapu Bulu: 212-250 (75.4 - 88.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Grassy Terrain recovery
252 Atk Tapu Bulu Wood Hammer vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Kommo-o in Grassy Terrain: 122-144 (41.9 - 49.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Grassy Terrain recovery Proof for neutral bulk! Even if Jolly outspeeds it, it doesn't matter

However, the main reason I posted this is that due to its other set options, having a solid switch-in for Kommo isn't as easy as it looks.

The standard for being a band user is so high that not even azumaril is used often and it's stabs, knock off, aqua jet and lure moves was pretty amazing and bulky.

It's not the same I know but as a band user garchomp hits harder and faster I think it should use it's new stat booster+attack with a pursuit/sableye counter to get ruin of ghost You can't soften

 

[Shurtugal]

Did everyone notice that Tapu Lele didn't get Trick? But yet TAPU FINI did!! Tbh Trick on Tapu Fini is going to be lowkey good, I've already had huge success with Scarf Tapu Fini in THIS SM metagame, as odd as that sounds, and personally will be playing USUM just to try the set with Trick over Defog. It'll arguably be one of its better sets in USUM too, as its very good at beating Greninja and luring things out like Tapu Koko :-).

My thoughts on everything else:

Defog Landorus-Therian is just dumb, as if there wasn't enough reason to use it... I always see Landorus-Therian as evidence that our metagame isn't balanced because no **one** pokemon should garner that much usage, and now it's only going to skyrocket. I can see Landorus-Therian becoming a potential stall Pokemon with leftovers + protect + wish support, since it can now SR/Defog, and Landorus is very good at sponging up attacks from common stall threats in like Mawile & Banded Tyranitar.

Rotom-W getting Defog is actually kind of good, but not sure if Wash will be a huge contender as its bulk is very thin and can only really go into defense or special defense and not both, so it isn't a one-all pivot, especially since dropping Wisp/Split will have big issues in some situations: lack of Pain Split reduces Rotom-W's utility/longevity, while Wisp makes it useless against things it should be beating like SD Mega Scizor. It'll just depend on the team I guess.

Gliscor doesn't really have the room for Defog IMO. Not to say it won't be used or that it would be bad, but it will be competing with Landorus-Therian. Actually now that I think about it, Gliscor could also be a good Pokemon on stall now that it has poison heal + defog legal, although it wouldn't be cohesive with Heal Bell + opposing Knock Off spam.

Toxapex with Knock Off? It can't really drop Scald as it relies on 30% burn rate to be even remotely threatening to things like SD Scizor / DD Gyarados / etc., and it needs Recover and Haze, leaving on Toxic/Toxic Spikes as a replaceable move, but both of these attacks are really outstanding on Pex, so finding room for Knock will not be so easy. Same principles apply to Tapu Fini, as it will likely not have room for Knock Off either.

Y'all talk about Serperior/Tornadus-Therian Defog, but Thundurus getting Defog is probably better thanks to Prankster, though not sure if it will be practical in our metagame when we have Defog Tapu Koko. (I think I saw Tapu Koko Defog mentioned in the pastebin; why is it not listed in the OP wtf Defog Koko will be amazing)

Those Sticky Web users will not be relevant in OU at all lol. Those Pokemon do not see usage at all and giving them Sticky Web will not change this when Shuckle (or Smeargle, I guess) is the best Webs setter(s) anyway. Buzzwole will also still be bad, seeing as how it doesn't really have a strong niche in our metagame. Hydregion getting Defog would have been nice in XY maybe, but uhhhhh, in our Fairy-type dominant metagame you gotta be shitting me to even mention it, because the only niche it ever saw in our metagame was briefly at the beginning of SM OU as a Choice Scarf user, because it's really a sub-optimal Pokemon when you consider how many dominant Fairy-types we have (Koko Lele Magearna etc.).

Thought: Defog-spammy metagame might make Defiant users like Bisharp better, especially if Landorus-Therian becomes a common Defog Pokemon, with Intimidate further buffing Defiant Pokemon.

Gunk Shot Ash Greninja would have been very good early SM OU when Tapu Fini was the only counter to it; now, it shouldn't be very good at all, seeing as it only hits a Pokemon that our community has decided is trash (tip: it's very good, actually). Fini doesn't have that dominant usage anymore, and Gunk Shot really doesn't hit anything (Clefable) that Hydro Pump isn't going to hit harder tbh. Maybe if Gunk Shot was a special-attacking move I could see it being a powerful neutral poison attack, but it's physical, so specs greninja wouldn't benefit from it, you'd probably be running Z Poison.

Heal Bell Magearna isn't even worth mentioning when its best sets are either offensive Z move or the Assault Vest pivot, it just really has no business using Heal Bell ever imo.

-.-.-

Quick question: is two Z moves per battle legal in Wifi battles / legal in competitive Pokemon? Because if it is I'm logging out of Smogon and PS so quickly you have no idea lol

EDIT:

Please do not make any Deoxys form back into OU, it has NEVER worked out EVER!! Same for Genesect, Landorus-Incarnate, and Aegislash THANKS

 

[Sabbio]

So, my message was canceled, but since it was a longish post and my point still remains, I'll write it again.
Regarding Kommo-O's possible OU set.

Kommo-o @ Dragonium Z
Ability: Bulletproof
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Close Combat
- Outrage
- Earthquake
- Dragon Dance

I believe running an Adamant nature should be fine, as his bulk lets him do that quite comfortably; given, of course, that all the opponent's Fairies have been removed. Moreover, while Adamant Kommo-o doesn't do much already, Jolly's damage output is laughable.

vs Steela:

252 Atk Kommo-o Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 132+ Def Celesteela: 136-162 (34.1 - 40.7%) -- 53% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

+1 252 Atk Kommo-o Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 132+ Def Celesteela: 204-241 (51.2 - 60.5%) -- 91.8% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

252+ Atk Kommo-o Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 132+ Def Celesteela: 150-177 (37.6 - 44.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

vs Pex:

252 Atk Kommo-o Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Toxapex: 136-160 (44.7 - 52.6%) -- 22.7% chance to 2HKO

252+ Atk Kommo-o Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Toxapex: 148-176 (48.6 - 57.8%) -- 96.1% chance to 2HKO

I won't even include the damage vs Venu because it's straight up hilarious.
Using Draconium though:

+1 252+ Atk Kommo-o Devastating Drake (190 BP) vs. 248 HP / 88 Def Venusaur-Mega: 352-415 (96.9 - 114.3%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO

252+ Atk Kommo-o Devastating Drake (190 BP) vs. 252 HP / 216+ Def Landorus-Therian: 241-285 (63 - 74.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

All the while, +1 Adamant CC, or even Jolly for what matters, 2HKOs Steela. If rocks are up and if running an Adamant nature, it won't even be able to Leech seed stall you out. Heavy Slam will do quite the nifty damage though.
Aside from this though, I can't really see it truly shine in OU tbh. On paper is a decent sweeper I guess, maybe between C+ or B- at best. Too bad the speed is atrocious. Most of the time you'll generally prefer Zyggy over this though, but I can see it work, expecially due to CC.
I can see it putting in work in UU though, even with the Z avaiable to use.

 

[GnralLao]

I just went to see the Serebii Pokédex, and they show Zeraora having 122 base Attack (not 112) and, most importantly, Naganadel having 127 base Speed (not 121)!, meaning even Scarf Greninja won't be able to revenge kill it after a speed boost.

If these numbers are accurate, their viability could be bumped to greater heights (less so for Zeraora than Naganadel, but still).

 

[Gary]

I just went to see the Serebii Pokédex, and they show Zeraora having 122 base Attack (not 112) and, most importantly, Naganadel having 127 base Speed (not 121)!, meaning even Scarf Greninja won't be able to revenge kill it after a speed boost.

If these numbers are accurate, their viability could be bumped to greater heights (less so for Zeraora than Naganadel, but still).

It still shows Zeraora at 112 Attack. Naganadel is indeed 127 Speed though. Guess we'll see.

 

[matthewc20090]

I just went to see the Serebii Pokédex, and they show Zeraora having 122 base Attack (not 112) and, most importantly, Naganadel having 127 base Speed (not 121)!, meaning even Scarf Greninja won't be able to revenge kill it after a speed boost.

If these numbers are accurate, their viability could be bumped to greater heights (less so for Zeraora than Naganadel, but still).

it says its 121 still for me

 

[MC Squared]

It still shows Zeraora at 112 Attack. Naganadel is indeed 127 Speed though. Guess we'll see.

Someone should confirm this to the dataminers

 

[Gary]

Yeah it's back to 121. I think they're just making mistakes, so I'd assume the original 121 is probably still correct.

 

[thesecondbest]

Well if it's a UB aren't all stats supposed to be prime numbers? 121 is not (11 squared) so maybe it is 127 oh god. But then the BST doesn't add up to a multiple of 10 so i'm confused either way. Well anyways we'll find out soon when the games come out.
Also can we retest Lando-I? Keep aegi/ and genesect banned but lando-i suffers from legality of gren and the speed tiers being past 101 nowadays, especially if Nagandel isn't banned. That being said this should probably be done 3 months into USUM if at all, so don't do it yet.
And no ribombee will not see use. if at all i see araquanid running webs as generally it has a hard time finding 4 moves it wants to run.

 

[Toshiro46]

Well if it's a UB aren't all stats supposed to be prime numbers? 121 is not (11 squared) so maybe it is 127 oh god. But then the BST doesn't add up to a multiple of 10 so i'm confused either way. Well anyways we'll find out soon when the games come out.
Also can we retest Lando-I? Keep aegi/ and genesect banned but lando-i suffers from legality of gren and the speed tiers being past 101 nowadays, especially if Nagandel isn't banned. That being said this should probably be done 3 months into USUM if at all, so don't do it yet.
And no ribombee will not see use. if at all i see araquanid running webs as generally it has a hard time finding 4 moves it wants to run.

121 still makes sense in the context of them possibly nerfing Naganadel's and the Fusion's speeds, which checks out with their BST. 127 doesn't make sense in that context or just generally with the BST

And so long as Zeraora's other stats are listed as the same its attack can't be 122, given the 600 BST for mythicals and all.

 

[Azure]

I'm especially excited for zeraora. I can see it being a really solid bulk up cleaner, with its excellent speed tier, ability to circumvent typical electric checks like ferrothorn and general defensive nuisances such as mega scizor, and has a pretty scary presence in the late game. Other than that it could also be a solid wallbreaker, opening up holes for partners to take advantage of, thanks to its coverage.

Naganadel will be incredibly frustrating. Its speed, movepool, ability and typing will allow it to act as not only a terrifying late game sweeper, but also a highly destructive early game wallbreaker, and a total nuke to balance. I think its too early to judge whether or not this pokemon will be broken, but it should definitely have an eye kept on it.

I dont see defog lando being used a whole lot. Its simply outclassed by so many other defoggers like mew, zapdos and fini for example, the former two even having instant recovery. It simply needs and prefers to set rocks up on pokemon that it can defensively check, and i feel defogging off of these pokemon instead will probably be very situational, and makes it a lot harder to punish switches.

 

[robopoke]

I have a theory that considers 121 as more logic:
There are 7 Ultra Beasts with 570 BST. The 8th, Necrozma, has 600 BST and is considered perfect. He cannot use HP Fighting for example. So something like 1-7 imperfect, 8th one is perfect. 7 is a prime number btw. What about the 9th-11th?
All of them except for Naga have Stats that are prime numbers and their BST is 570.
Naga however with 121 Spe has 1 Stat that is not a prime number. So it is even of lesser "value" than the other Ultra Beasts. Therefore its BST is also of lesser value which is 540 instead of 570/600. 540->570->600. The difference is always 30. 570 is standard.

Conclusion: For every Stat that is not a primenumber you lose 30 BST if you have Beast Boost as an ability.

 

[FCKNfuego]

I dont see defog lando being used a whole lot. Its simply outclassed by so many other defoggers like mew, zapdos and fini for example, the former two even having instant recovery. It simply needs and prefers to set rocks up on pokemon that it can defensively check, and i feel defogging off of these pokemon instead will probably be very situational, and makes it a lot harder to punish switches.

So much people are saying this but I doubt it will be this way in practice. Lando is the definition of role compression. This is just another role for it to compress all over. It can defog just as easily on all the mons that it can set up rocks on.

Calling it now, this thing is gonna be used....a lot and It's gonna be p good at it.

 

[Sabbio]

So much people are saying this but I doubt it will be this way in practice. Lando is the definition of role compression. This is just another role for it to compress all over. It can defog just as easily on all the mons that it can set up rocks on.

Calling it now, this thing is gonna be used....a lot and It's gonna be p good at it.

Prob is going to be used as a filler move on the scarf set on offensive builds.

 

[Lennart]

Couldnt Stakataka find at least a small niche due to the fact that it naturally checks Naganadel and Mega Mawhile ( Assuming Focus Punch wont be common ), for instance?

 

[exasperation123]

No, because other mons do it better and actually serve other useful roles on the team. Such as heatran

 

[Lennart]

It faces Competition from Tran but it has Tools like Trick Room to set itself apart from beeing useless and Banded Sets would allow it to have some nice surprising offensive presence while still checking Naganadel and Mawhile. Furthermore I think Recycle looks cool on paper with the "new" buff of it ( in conjunktion with a 50 % berry ) and it has the Option to serve as a Trapper with Block though I serverly doubt that this Set has its Chance to shine on the Ladder because of obvious reasons ( you most likely wont be able to effectivly use this set because you arent able to defeat the pokemon which are likely to switch in on you )

 

[Gary]

Well the games went live in Japan and PS is just waiting for the boss to get online and implement the USUM changes, so might as well lock this now that no more speculation will be needed soon.

In the next coming week, look out for a new metagame discussion thread (kill me), as well as a new Viability Rankings (PLZ KILL ME) and probably revamped projects.