Announcement SV Monotype Suspect #7: White Ferrari (Chien-Pao Suspect)

[Leafium Z]

Who could have seen this coming! Given the results of the survey, the council has decided to immediately suspect Chien-Pao following the end of the last suspect. Taking the overall discussion that revolves around this Pokemon since its conception into consideration and also based on the last survey results, the council has decided that it is finally time to let the people decide Chien-Pao's fate.

Since its debut, Chien-Pao has always sparked discussion about its potential broken aspects, and it is not hard to see why. It has fantastic STAB coverage in Dark/Ice, a versatile movepool (including Swords Dance and priorities on both STABs), a blistering speed of 135, and its signature ability, Sword in Ruin, allowing its attacks to hit harder. This combination of treats can often put a restraint on the teambuilding process, forcing the metagame to warp around it in a way that some people might claim is unhealthy. It also must be noted that the Chien-Pao finds itself in two great types. On Dark teams, Ting-Lu and Sableye can provide hazard stacking + spinblocking to ease out Chien-Pao's work at cleaning weakened teams, while Meowscarada and Mandibuzz can be used to bring it safely to the field via pivot moves. On Ice teams, Alola-Ninetales can set up Snow but also Aurora Veil, providing multiple setup opportunities for the cat. Additionally, Chien-Pao can comfortably put in work with two deadly sets: Choice Band and Swords Dance, which demands different counterplay. Choice Band immediately allows Chien-Pao to hit like a truck, while Swords Dance makes quick work of defensive cores and abuse priority to threaten Pokemon that can otherwise revenge kill it. Icicle Crash also allows Chien-Pao to fish for a flinch against defensive answers, allowing it to sometimes break past otherwise answers such as Skarmory and Corviknight.

However, it is not all roses for the cat. While Dark/Ice is amazing as an offensive pair, it is definitely lacking defensively, with few relevant resistances and a glaring 4x weakness to Fighting, one of the most common attacking types in the game. Additionally, its bulk of 80/80/65 most definitely did not keep pace with SV's overall power creep, leaving it vulnerable to revenge killers/choice scarf users such as Iron Valiant, Great Tusk, and Urshifu-R, as well as priorities like Keldeo's Vacuum Wave. While its movepool is diverse with coverage moves like Sacred Sword and Psychic Fangs, it cannot run those and its desired STAB attacks, meaning it has to choose in the builder what matchups to excel in.

Chien-Pao has been at the center of tiering discussions since its introduction, and it is impossible to ignore its relevance to the metagame. The question at hand is if Chien-Pao truly pushes it over the edge and deserves to catch the ban hammer or the community believes that belongs in this metagame. With your thoughts and your vote, now is the time to find out!

Thoughts from the Council

With an effective 176 base attack and 135 speed along with unresisted offensive coverage, Chien-Pao is the dictionary definition of an unhealthy mon. There are ways to check it (i.e., Vacuum Wave + Wise Glasses Ursa) but they're honestly a bit suboptimal and I think we've become desensitized to the warping of prep that Chien causes.

Chien's ability to outpace most of the metagame due to its speed and priority options make it one of the hardest pokemon to revenge kill. Considering the damage it is capable of dealing on top of that, you get a harsh wallbreaker that is sometimes near impossible to handle defensively, and difficult to handle offensively. I believe this metagame will breathe easier with Chien Pao gone.

Chien Pao has long been the subject of unending debate within Mono. While I do not personally feel it is the most problomatic mon in the tier I do think a suspect is long past due. It's ability to flip games on their head with a late game Swords Dance, as well as the ridiculous power of Choice Band sets, have made it a centralizing force since the beginning of SV.

chien-pao is an incredibly strong pokemon with very little drawbacks to using. its raw power and ability+sets allow it to easily rip through the metagame and easily win games. additionally its present on two great types, each being able to support it in unique ways. its power with band on dark teams, esp given ting-lu's ability to hazard stack+mandibuzz's ability to keep hazards clear allows it to have perfect opportunitys to do massive damage to the opponents team, while on ice due to snow+veil it has great opportunities to setup. while it does not have the greatest bulk, that really does not slow it down due to how even when it swords dances it does so on forced switches allowing chien-pao to practically setup for free . overall the metagame would be healthier without its presence.

I've been pretty borderline or underwhelmed for a majority of DLC2 with Chien-Pao, but the survey results speak for themselves: it deserves a suspect. Previously, people have repeatedly mentioned "it's unbalanced" without giving much to back it up besides saying it's speed/attack/ability combined make it broken, but I haven't personally really seen that to be the case across team or individual tournaments. With two of its checks now having been suspected out, though, I've seen an uptick in it in replays over the past few weeks without Baxcalibur and likely will continue to see it now without Ursaluna-B becoming much more difficult to play around, exerting more pressure both in building and in games, and I definitely lean towards Chien-Pao needing to go.

Chien-Pao has been a hot topic in the ban/dnb discussions since the start of the gen. The fact that a mon can be this polarizing, with the pro-ban party and dnb party being pretty vocal about it speaks loads not only about its relevance on the metagame but in the community itself. On one side, if you look at its conjunction of skills, it's hard to believe such a mon is being allowed, but on the other side, it also came with a huge jump on power creep provided by SV as a whole. If it belongs healthily in the power creep or if it is infact overbearing, I am still gathering my thoughts and am excited to see everyone's posts about it.

Chien pao ability to break or sweep a game are know from a long time. Imo the best way to understand why I'm in favor of the ban is look some calc of that mon against his "check". Ovarall it's hard to revenge that mon due to his speed + his priority. If ur opponent put quickly the pressure and don't let u put hazard, u also have the problem of guessing the set of pao (is it classic hdb sd ? band ? scarf ?). Usually for have this information u have to check a set, but with pao make the bad decision can means -> lose ur game

There are a number of factors that make Pao an unhealthy factor in the metagame. With a base 120 Attack stat combined with the Sword of Ruin ability, the 'mon is already a dangerous threat to manage with no boosts. Access to SD, along with a variety of sufficient coverage and STAB attacks that can handle any defensive walls with the right combination make it a force to be reckoned with. Being one of the fastest 'mons in the metagame is just the cherry on the icing, and traditional speed control usually can struggle to handle it as well due to Ice Shard and Sucker Punch being viable priority options.

Feel free to post in this thread with your thoughts on Chien-Pao in Monotype. You are encouraged to post replays to prove your point.

In order to cast a vote in this suspect test, you must participate on the [Gen 9] Monotype ladder in which Chien-Pao will continue to be allowed. You must make a new account to ladder with. This account's registration date must be at earliest the day this suspect begins. You must prefix your account name with the tag: MCPS7 in order for your account to qualify. Tagging dhelmise to implement this on the ladder!

Acceptable:
MCPS7 Maroon

Unacceptable:
Maroon MCPS7

The requirement for qualification is at least 82% GXE and at least 40 games played. The suspect test will last just over two weeks until Friday May 17th @ 11:59 PM EDT (GMT -4). You will then have three days to cast your vote. Chien-Pao will require a 60% majority of voters in favor of banning it in order for it to be banned from Monotype.

Upon meeting the requirements, you must post proof of the qualification in the Voter Identification thread, which is separate from this thread and will be created closer to the end of the suspect. Do not post your proof in this discussion thread.

You may use this thread to discuss this Chien-Pao suspect or ask for clarification for any questions you may have. You may not use this thread to post one-liners or discuss topics unrelated to this specific suspect, such as possible future suspects. Please stay respectful when you post and follow all Monotype forum rules. Please also make sure to follow the Monotype tiering philosophy found here.

 

[maroon]

Same deal as last time. You may not use this thread to post one-liners or discuss topics unrelated to this specific suspect, such as possible future suspects. I will personally be strictly inforcing this rule, any posts violating this are subject to infraction!

 

[Dead by Daylight]

Very surprised this is happening so quickly after the Ursa-BM ban, although I figure we need to hold it now or after MPL. Anyways, not particularly surprised to see Chien next on the chopping block. I don't have an opinion on it, although I figure with Ursa-BM being gone it's next in line to be thrown out of the tier as that's one of the most prominent Vacuum Wavers gone. Cheers.

 

[Jahkem]

I’ll get the ball rolling on this thread.

Chien Pao is a prominent offensive threat in this tier. I foresee people mainly talking about Pao’s presence on Dark more so than on Ice. That’s what I will do also.

Dark, at one point, was the best type in the tier. Dark is still top 5, arguably top 3, type even today thanks to it hosting the best offensive core in Chien Pao and Kingambit. Not only that, Chien Pao has a excellent core to retreat behind throughout games in teammates like , , , , and occasionally based on how the Dark team is built. But as time has went on, people have continually adapted to Chien Pao’s presence in the meta by being mindful of it while team building and play making. The two sets that are ran are the common SD + Heavy Duty Boots sets and the nearly as common Choice Band set. Although, you can’t completely exclude the low ladder special Focus Sash + SD set. All things considered, the SD+HDB set is the most prevalent set that flips a number of games upside down.

I invite people to give their thoughts on what makes Chien Pao’s presence in the tier okay regardless if you are voting ban or supporting the ban side. Of course, express why it should go as well. I believe it’s important to express one’s pros and cons list that leads them to point towards Ban or DNB. Majority of qualified voters already know what they’ll vote prior to getting reqs and I want to know what led them to that decision before laddering for reqs.

 

[juleocesar]

My opinion on Chien-Pao is the following:

Not particularly very restrictive on the builder in the sense most types can account for it without handicapping themselves (Steel / Flying has Skarmory; Dragon has Archaludon, Fairy has screens klefki + primarina, Water has Primarina / Quaquaval (as long as it doesnt have psy fangs it can check pretty comfortably), Fighting has Zamazenta, etc). 98% of the paos are either choice band or hdb which have different counterplay but are straightforward to play against once u know their set. My only issue with this Pokemon is that it can inflict heavy damage with moves that can hax your opponent out (Icicle Crash flinch and Crunch def drops are a good examples of how it can ruin their planned responses for it). From a competitive perspective having it gone could favor a more skill-based gameplay which is very nice but overall I don't think it is broken in current meta, it is mostly a hard hitting frail wallbreaker and it is pretty good at doing its job, but nothing that pushes it over the edge IMO. SD + Ice Shard can be particularly troublesome for certain builds to deal with, though.

That being said I could be voting ban or no ban, still collecting my own thoughts (given we are in a new scenario after UrsaBM just got banned) and hopefully this suspect test period will help cement my final decision.

 

[LordWaniel]

Finally a mon I feel qualified to talk about. I've been running banded Chien-Pao on Ice ever since I started Gen 9 monotype. It's carried me through tough times and not-so-tough times alike. And at the end of it all I have to say:
This thing is broken as hell.
Ice and dark complement each other exceptionally well offensively, with no single type resisting both. Pao also boasts the incredibly reliable sacred sword as coverage into rocks and steels, as well as psychic fangs to hit fighting and poison supereffectively. Its speed allows it to outrun and OHKO most pokemon that would otherwise threaten it, and even those who naturally tie or outspeed it are at risk of being hit by a juiced up ice shard or sucker punch. Its main STABs crunch and icicle crash also have devastating side effects, with crunch dropping defense and icicle crash flinching. Either of these happening can force a sacrifice or turn a would-be check into a dead mon.
I haven't played with swords dance much but from the damage that band is doing, +2 Pao must be even crazier. These sets commonly run boots so while they want to boost up before sweeping, they have more chances to come in across a game. Its +2 priority can clean up weakened teams and +2 STABs can 2HKO even mighty walls like Toxapex or Corviknight. Sure it'll suffer from not being able to fit every coverage, priority, and STAB move it wants into one set, but the variations it can run are already hard to predict until it's already set up or fired off a powerful attack, especially when there's no hazards up to reveal its item. The way to deal with each set varies wildly too. Outplaying sucker punch is completely different from tanking banded ice shard or preventing swords dance sacred sword. Getting the set wrong can lead to losing a would-be check and sometimes losing the game outright.
Plus, Chien Pao has excellent support on Ice. The aforementioned aurora veil and snow boost its modest 80 base defense up to essentially over 200, letting it survive things it has no business surviving such as Scizor bullet punch or sacred sword from opposing Chien Paos. It also has Alolan Sandslash spinning away hazards for its banded variants and Froslass coming in on scarfed fighting attacks to disrupt the opponent with spikes and status. Plus, pokemon who are physically bulky enough to take multiple hits from Chien-Pao will often find themselves lacking against the special power of choice specs Kyurem. I can't speak much about its place on Dark, but from what I've seen it prefers using swords dance sets and enjoys good hazard support from Ting Lu.
That being said, Chien-Pao's role on current Ice teams is absolutely vital. It lives up to the type's identity as fast and frail offense when so many of its mons have middling speed. The combination of dark STAB and sacred sword allows Ice to break bulky Steel teams without needing to continuously switch on stealth rocks. Its high speed and power lets it keep certain fire type threats like Cinderace, Volcarona and Ogerpon-H from melting through Ice teams. Psychic fangs is a vital tool in the Fighting matchup and can force progress against Poison, which Ice is much weaker against now that Baxcalibur is gone. Its amazing priority can salvage situations that would otherwise be an instant loss, like facing scarf contrary Enamorus at +1 with no Froslass. It's a great anchor against last mon Kingambit, tanking +2 sucker punches when under snow and OHKOing back. And it's a natural predator of currently solid types like Ground, Dragon, Dark and Flying.
All these qualities make it irreplaceable on Ice teams, even by the similar but inferior Weavile. Yet, thinking about it now, the times I've ice sharded ground teams to death, crunched ghost teams to oblivion, flinched steels teams to win, and defense dropped poison teams out of commission outweigh any benefits that Chien Pao brings to the one type I chose to play. And though I'm not bothered by its presence thanks to my Avalugg walling it under most circumstances, without it I'd probably be relying on winning Chien Pao speed ties or fishing for Alolan Sandslash flinches to counter any Chien Paos I encounter. So yeah, while I'll miss one of my original monotype frost raiders dearly, the tier will go towards an overall healthier direction once it's gone and I will be voting ban if I get reqs.

 

[TheWyvernKing]

I agree with the sentiment that getting rid of Chien Pao could favor a more skill based metagame. I think we got used to it somewhat as a mon, but even so it stands out for how big of a threat it poses with incredible wallbreaking and late game cleaning capabilities. It's probably a mon, more than any other, that we see instantly win a game from a single icicle crash flinch. Not to mention, it's band vs. sd vs. all out attacker sets don't offer much room for misplay. While I tend to clown on sash abuse, I'd seen Sash Pao enough times, even on occasion at higher ladder for it to live rent free in my head.
I could've articulated my perspective a bit better but overall I think Pao is an unhealthy presence in our metagame.
I'll also point out, Ursaluna-BloodMoon was a mon that kept Pao in check. Ground had a notoriously unfavored Dark mu before BloodMoon dropped. While I think it was unhealthy before the Luna ban, I imagine Pao will become even more difficult to answer now than it was when we last took the tiering survey.

 

[DomadragonAlvaro]

at last! I have been facing several dark monotypes, chien pao is too versatile, with the ban of ursaluna dm, chien pao has a decent check out (the bold version of ursaluna and vaccum wave was one of the few answers to chien pao in some monotypes) Dark this one has enough offense with meowscarada, greninja, darkrai and kingambit. If we talk about ice, an aurora veil + snow + chien pao sword dance is devastating.

 

[pomfpomfpluff]

I just finished getting my monotype reqs by using the only Stall listed in the Samples forum. I did this suspect run with very little prior metagame knowledge, with most of it boiling down to spamming unga bunga HO teams for fun. In general I feel as if my understanding of how Monotype works in comparison to a "normal" tier improved substantially, hence why my opinion on Big Cheems also changed substantially throughout the process of my suspect run.

I was honestly quite underwhelmed with how Chien-Pao performed throughout my run. This could obviously be chalked up to Ladder being a joke, which even a newbie like me would agree with since I ran into this thing like five times, and it only really managed to accomplish anything once (Crash Flinches ;-;). But still, if something is suffocating enough to be banworthy, I'd expect it to at least be a competent breaker without needing to rely on luck (especially vs a team with literally no Ice resists). This combined with how both Mono Ice and Dark lack any braindead fat pivots that easily let it get in repeatedly and it's awful defensive typing, means that it's generally going to struggle to break fat teams in longer games.

But then I started using more than two of my braincells and managed to form a think; Stall isn't the only teamstyle people use in Monotype, in fact it's probably not a very good one at that! So I decided to boot up some braindead mono Ice HO and wham, Chien-Pao immediately becomes an issue. I was not expecting it to be as good of on offense killer as it is, especially to the extent that it does said Offense killing. Fat stuff besides hardcore Stall really isn't an issue because Specs Kyurem literally eats that for Breakfast, which puts you into a situation where it literally only needs to worry about cleaning lategame. And clean it does, you can literally slap a Life Orb on this thing and it will just OHKO neutral targets after Spikes with an unboosted Sucker Punch. It is truly ridiculous that a mon with 0 bad matchups against offense (accounting for set variety ofc) is so strong against literally every team in the builder except the one I so happened to steal from the Samples.

So what's my verdict?

TLDR: None of what's written above matters because my suspect philosophy boils down to 3 criteria.
1: Is it an Offensive mon? Ban em.
2: Is it a Fat mon I hate? Ban em.
3: Is it Chien-Pao? Ban em.

 

[Chaitanya]

I started to write a long ass post but I don't have time so I compiled some games last week and will 'briefly' mention my opinion.

last 7 rounds of ssnls + 3 recent sv cup rounds

0 Pao in the last 4 rounds of ssnls

(r10 ssnls)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2087132033-02k618khhdvo08g00u2l90w2dd3sthrpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2085203905-8rdjrfohpgz4a449sz2zs8c7mv701itpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9monotype-753709
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9monotype-753708

r9 ssnls
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9monotype-753195

r8 ssnls
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2073667434-hjq6508jug1ntvtw1ejwvhjszzrtz0kpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2075496408?p2
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2076613385-xdoot9u81occh8m1u6opi1dc31tz6rmpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2078021309?p2

r6 sv cup
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2107627527
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2104009800-jor0q9xklds4dyae509d36rtt8px9ivpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2104005798-2idkpk23lhu6e2kt8dgn2hu8ua1zux6pw

r7 sv cup
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2112841441
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2112087237-7x780lv8oo865ofqsxhvyzdlxhj3817pw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2111716243-n5sptd72sm7k5pwr2ewwqkrch9v523apw

r8 sv cup
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2116580814
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2115342256

only 17 total paos seen if i counted right.

6-11 record in these games. solid type variety overall which should be the goal of the tier. Doesn't look overly broken vs anything here, and runs into quite a few disadvantageous matchups. All of which are solid teams vs the majority of the tier. Hard to see any teams really over-prepped for dark.

I ran through ladder spamming rain and then steel. Saw pao 3 times and didnt have an issue with it. Team I was using is obviously solid vs dark, but I had a good record and didn't struggle excessively vs anything else either.

games v pao

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2120361181
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2120367856?p2
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2120374554?p2

I think we are still in a very very new meta post ursa ban and that this meta will take time to settle down again, but to me there is nothing indicating dark/pao are oppressive or broken. Lots of types are being used with success currently and people are still finding new ways to manage pao in more ways across types. In this thread alone I've seen arguments about usra being a pao check when really players have adapted to it and use things such as eball hoopa/knot gren/meow alongside pao. That ground mu is never going to be favorable with or without pao. Seeing arguments to ban it on ice?? which is a really bad type at this point. like what are we really doing... I have seen people use the dark mirror as an argument against banning pao. I think it's ridiculous. What mirror isn't annoying? What mirror doesnt contain some speed ties, or people creeping mirror mons for speed. It's part of mons. So is the probability management of the possible flinches. Especially with covert cloak around I think its an absurd argument to hang onto. Does it add to the threat? Definitely, as does the unpredictability of its set. But hazards and darks lack of removal enable you to collect enough information the first time it comes in to make an educated guess and play accordingly imo.

Personally a really easy decision to vote no-ban.

 

[Leafium Z]

Hello, ladies and gentlemen! Here we are in another divisive and Super Controversial suspect and, while I started the suspect kinda in the fence about Chien-Pao, I figured the pro-bans argument to be way stronger and more solid than the dnb party, which makes me way more inclined to ban the cat and I will detail the reasons down below.

Let's start by answering Chait's post by posting Scarfire's immediate response to his screenshot.

From here, we can pinpoint a few points of discussion that we can investigate further, those being:

- Every type is already naturally running answers to Pao
- It's usage is very low, therefore not warrant of action
- Yeah, dark mirror sucks, but all mirrors suck the same, right?

Every type run Pao answers

For the sake of simplification, let's assume this sentence is true (which even then it's a stretch) and say that yes, every type is running answers to Pao. The question at hand is: are those answers being ran because they are the best options for each type, or are they being run SPECIFICALLY to counter Pao? Flying is a good example for this; even builds with Skarmory often double down to having Body Press on Corvi (iron head + press) as a backup for Skarm being flinched. Having to account for your check being flinched and thus messing with another mons set because of it seems a bit messy. As was also brought up as an argument before, people having to rely on using suboptimal items like Covert Cloak Skarmory to avoid flinches from Icicle Crash so that this situation doesn't occur to begin with is a classic example of a teambuilding constraint that, by textbook, is unhealthy.

Going out of the two main sets, the vast majority of the types deal with one set but folds to the another and that isn't even taking into account the movepool, which also changes drastically how you react to it. Between Choice Band/SD sets, Ice Shard/Sucker Punch and its coverage, the only types that can comfortably scout it without instalosing if guessed wrong is Fighting and Fairy (and Keldeo Water). And all of this without even taking into account spikes pressure + spinblocking, courtesy of Ting-Lu and Sableye, and how the early breaking enables Kingambit to just do Kingambit things in the end-game.

Low usage, no action is needed

This is an argument that, in a personal level, is way too weak. It's the same argument used to prevent another controversial mon to get a suspect and while it technically can be applied to that, it most certainly cannot be applied to Pao. And I wonder if maybe the lack of usage/wins is related to the teambuilding warp that Pao causes, making everything build around the dark matchup? Before the suspect went up, 2 council members were talking about the past few weeks of Pao's performance in tours and it was even brought up a poor 3-4 record.

But after looking into the games, the 3/4 of the losses were to... Fighting and Fairy, and 2/3 of the wins were to... a HO Normal and a Rock.

It is hard to go entirely off usage stats as there could be a number of reasons behind it: scouting, players preference, poorly played games and many more. In the tour replays Chait has posted of Pao after those games mentioned before the suspect, they show weird HO Darks with Jugulis, Life Orb Pao Screens, Wo-chien and stuff. These can be a few reasons for Darks poor usage, but there is another reason that justifies it: nobody wants to risk loading into a Dark Mirror, which leads to the final topic.

Every other mirror sucks, Dark is no exception

Except it IS an exception. There is absolutely NO other mirror that, no matter how the entirety of the game is played, 99% of the times it comes down to a single speed tie. You can maybe make a case for Dragon if you really try and squeeze it, but even that it's not hard to play around to avoid speed ties. In Dark mirrors, it is not even possible to creep the important speed tie! No matter how both teams are built, no matter the skill level of both players, it will always come down to a Pao speed tie. Very skillful, I know.

Closing Argument

It's no surprise that SV came along with a major power creep. Mons that were behemoths in previous gens are irrelevant as new broken monsters have arised and, as mentioned by Trich in his thoughts, this might have desensitized us of what is strong and what truly pushes the boundaries. So let's remember Pao's traits once more: effective 177 Atk, 135 Speed, Dark/Ice STAB, Swords Dance, Priorities on both STABS, desired coverage, backed up by a phenomenal team support and more. If people thought it was fair until now, it's because we HAD to come up with crazy stuff to deal with it. Even though I am not a builder, I vouch for builder creativity and for how much breathing space the metagame will have without it. We have played with Pao for more than a year now, we stole games with it, we had games stolen because of it, and now I believe it's finally time to see it gone.

 

[Scarfire]

I started to write a long ass post but I don't have time so I compiled some games last week and will 'briefly' mention my opinion.

last 7 rounds of ssnls + 3 recent sv cup rounds

0 Pao in the last 4 rounds of ssnls

(r10 ssnls)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2087132033-02k618khhdvo08g00u2l90w2dd3sthrpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2085203905-8rdjrfohpgz4a449sz2zs8c7mv701itpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9monotype-753709
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9monotype-753708

r9 ssnls
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9monotype-753195

r8 ssnls
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2073667434-hjq6508jug1ntvtw1ejwvhjszzrtz0kpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2075496408?p2
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2076613385-xdoot9u81occh8m1u6opi1dc31tz6rmpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2078021309?p2

r6 sv cup
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2107627527
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2104009800-jor0q9xklds4dyae509d36rtt8px9ivpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2104005798-2idkpk23lhu6e2kt8dgn2hu8ua1zux6pw

r7 sv cup
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2112841441
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2112087237-7x780lv8oo865ofqsxhvyzdlxhj3817pw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2111716243-n5sptd72sm7k5pwr2ewwqkrch9v523apw

r8 sv cup
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2116580814
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2115342256

only 17 total paos seen if i counted right.

6-11 record in these games. solid type variety overall which should be the goal of the tier. Doesn't look overly broken vs anything here, and runs into quite a few disadvantageous matchups. All of which are solid teams vs the majority of the tier. Hard to see any teams really over-prepped for dark.

I ran through ladder spamming rain and then steel. Saw pao 3 times and didnt have an issue with it. Team I was using is obviously solid vs dark, but I had a good record and didn't struggle excessively vs anything else either.

games v pao

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2120361181
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2120367856?p2
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2120374554?p2

I usually save posting in thread until after I get reqs but between having a slow week and showdown being down rn, decided I might as well. I watched all of these replays, and while I would feel disingenuous going through each one and being like ummm this is invalid....so I will just be going over whatI'm observing in these games rq and anyone reading can draw their own conclusions of how much of a impact these have. I imagine many people didnt click them and just saw the wall of links and the 6/11 and called it a day so, figure this is important.

(r10 ssnls)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2087132033-02k618khhdvo08g00u2l90w2dd3sthrpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2085203905-8rdjrfohpgz4a449sz2zs8c7mv701itpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9monotype-753709
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9monotype-753708

So this first batch includes; a dark w/a jugulis over a sableye losing, a wo-chien dark losing to a fairy, a wo-chien dark beating an electric, and a Life Orb Pao Screens w/tauntlock roaring moon losing to flying. The Wo-Chien replays def seem like silly indicators of darks place in the meta rn, as does this bizarre screens. Even if I do look into them more, the wo-chien darks beat a D tier type, and lost to one of darks like 4 bad matchups. The Arken replay is the only one that seems mildly "real".

r9 ssnls
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9monotype-753195
Bug wins, huge.

r8 ssnls
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2073667434-hjq6508jug1ntvtw1ejwvhjszzrtz0kpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2075496408?p2
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2076613385-xdoot9u81occh8m1u6opi1dc31tz6rmpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2078021309?p2

Oh hey its me, losing dark vs fighting. Then we have standard looking Dark beating a ground team, which is def a favoured matchup due to pao-gren-meow. A dark losing to a dragon, this is a pretty fair shout, I'd say thats another good replay. And than another Dark beating ground.

r6 sv cup
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2107627527
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2104009800-jor0q9xklds4dyae509d36rtt8px9ivpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2104005798-2idkpk23lhu6e2kt8dgn2hu8ua1zux6pw

Dark beating ground. This dark losing to water is a tough call; up to whoever is reading this determine if this is 'valid" to them but I see a Quaq into a sableye-less dark team that is heavily relying on h-samu spikes, and I see a quag+samurott which limits what Gambit can pull late game. All the same there is a Meow and Jugulis doesn't seem awful here? Hard call. Oh, and another dark beating ground.

r7 sv cup
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2112841441
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2112087237-7x780lv8oo865ofqsxhvyzdlxhj3817pw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2111716243-n5sptd72sm7k5pwr2ewwqkrch9v523apw

Dark (Pao esp), taking a massive dump on normal. Dark losing to fairy. Dark losing to fighting.

r8 sv cup
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2116580814
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9monotype-2115342256

Dark losing to steel. Both standard builds, p valid showcase. I'd say this replay is solid. And lastly Dark losing to scrafty-okidogi-keldeo fighting.

So out of these wins and losses its either dark beating weird types/beating ground, and its losses are either with silly builds, to fighting/fairy/a random bug for like 6 of the Ls, and the like 3 I'd consider decent showcases (Leaf beating dark w/steel, Autumn beating dark w/dragon, Neko beating dark w/fire).

I also want to talk about your reqs replays, or your rather your opponent in 2 of them. While he may have struggled vs Tinka Fairy, that user is constantly near the top/at the top of the ladder using that same dark team. If you want some example of darks strong "usage", I'd say there is one right there.

Conclusion: Again, up to whoever is reading, I just wanted to go over the games again because its easy for people to see all the links and just assume they all are a perfect showing. Hope this maybe changes some perspectives.

 

[Chaitanya]

And all of this without even taking into account spikes pressure + spinblocking, courtesy of Ting-Lu and Sableye, and how the early breaking enables Kingambit to just do Kingambit things in the end-game.

Accounting for hazards from dark but ignoring that dark struggles to block any sort of hazards allowing you to figure out pao's item is... something

Except it IS an exception. There is absolutely NO other mirror that, no matter how the entirety of the game is played, 99% of the times it comes down to a single speed tie.

Historically there are several, and a few currently. ghost often comes down to speed ties, valiant stuff, volcarana stuff, heatran stuff, dragons forever, gren wars, mamo wars, victini wars. Keldeos. lots more. These have existed for multiple generations. They have never had any basis for being an argument for a ban while they were on much much more popular, centralizing types. It doesn't suddenly start now lol. Acting like there is NOTHING you can do to ease the traditional mirror at very little cost is comical or ineptitude.

But after looking into the games, the 3/4 of the losses were to... Fighting and Fairy, and 2/3 of the wins were to... a HO Normal and a Rock.

Fighting and fairy are gonna be good and v usable with or without pao. ho normal and rock can't say the same. I agree usage stats aren't everything but this does not help your argument

Conclusion: Again, up to whoever is reading, I just wanted to go over the games again because its easy for people to see all the links and just assume they all are a perfect showing. Hope this maybe changes some perspectives.

Very fair, thank you for doing what I was too lazy to do. Not all are perfect replays for sure. My main point of these replays were to show the 'it isn't too common on ladder but in tour play its a different beast' people that individuals are also tours! They are v often ignored in talking about 'tour meta' but these 2 tours in their later rounds only containing pao 17 overall across these many rounds is underwhelming, as was its performance. Sure they got some bad mus, but they also ran into very common things with a good mu. These types will stay common whatever happens with this result.

I think it's v important to realize that when types are going to be good regardless of whether pao gets banned or not, such as fairy or fighting, running into them and then implying things such as 'people are only using these types cause pao exists' 'tier is warped around pao' is an awful argument and just ways to try to confirm biases.

 

[Scarfire]

Accounting for hazards from dark but ignoring that dark struggles to block any sort of hazards allowing you to figure out pao's item is... something

As far as learning the item goes, while it is handy, one thing I've learned is SD boots w/crash sucker sword pretty much threatens every type in existence rn. Knowing its boots isn't that handy there. The only real instances where shard is better is vs Scarf Enam and Scarf Meow. Thing with the Enam matchup is, 99% of the time the flying player can't afford to gamble if its sucker or shard, so they are forced out regardless. And aside from Enam, there is rly no other mon that is forcing shard/sucker to be revealed, so you kind of just won't know until you decide fuck it I'm gonna go enam and see what happens (and some gamers might come to learn that Enam can actually die to +2 sucker after rocks, albeit a small chance). As far as Meow goes its simple as making it take hazards more than once, which as you said yourself, darks hazard control doesn't exist.

TL:DR most types get shit on by SD sucker, the one type that doesn't has no way to scout it, knowing its banded via rocks damage is handy but usually when Band Pao comes out its cuz smth is about to drop dead anyways. Value of the scout isn't as high as one would like it to be.

Historically there are several, and a few currently. ghost often comes down to speed ties, valiant stuff, volcarana stuff, heatran stuff, dragons forever, gren wars, mamo wars, victini wars. Keldeos. lots more. These have existed for multiple generations

I'm gonna assume the examples that apply to SV here are obviously Valiant, and then seemingly Heatran, and Dragons. As far as Valiant goes, the fighting mirror has both Zama and Sneasler as solid outspeed and OHKO options. Heatran speed ties can def decide whether or not one heatran runs over the other in a mirror, but the one thing here is the heatran does actually have to run the third move to make breaking the balloon possible, so rocks/wisp taunt sets are effectively dead. There is a limitation put on Heatran if it wants to make the mirror work (Will not deny that 3a Heatran is decent tho). That and if you do break the balloon and then lose the EP speed tie, you still have Treads to force it out/kill it. It is still likely a losing war, but options in how you approach the game exist. Dragon I'll rly need some examples...between Archaludon/Hoodra, dragon has soft switch ins to a lot and no fast mon speed tie needs to be taken unless u play poorly. Sure, the situation can come up, but it doesn't decide 9/10 games like Pao ones do. With Pao you need to either invest in a chople berry on your gambit, or run a scarf h-samu, the former of which would not exist without Pao, and the latter of which feels extremely mediocre on dark and takes up an important slot to cover the mirror.

Fighting and fairy are gonna be good and v usable with or without pao. ho normal and rock can't say the same. I agree usage stats aren't everything but this does not help your argument

Leaf can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm certain the argument he was making here was that the losses being against near unwinnable matchups and the wins being against very much non-meta teams makes both sets of games not really good examples of darks place in the meta, good or bad, ad was similar to what I was getting across in my last post.

"I think it's v important to realize that when types are going to be good regardless of whether pao gets banned or not, such as fairy or fighting, running into them and then implying things such as 'people are only using these types cause pao exists' 'tier is warped around pao' is an awful argument and just ways to try to confirm biases."

This was not what I was saying either lol, yes fighting and fairy are good. I was saying that you can't count off "oh it lost 11 times" when more than half were to those 2 types (and a bug).

 

[Chaitanya]

I'm gonna assume the examples that apply to SV here are obviously Valiant, and then seemingly Heatran, and Dragons.

They were just general examples, of course there are more in SV, such as ogerpon stuff across types, mamos on ground, flutters on ghost (not always same item sure but often enough they are) Gambit sequences. Some of these could be seen as broken but it would never be because of speed tie sequences. My answer to leaf was really just to show examples of stuff (old and new) that made mirrors speed tie dependent but have never been used as a serious argument against one.

I lost an mpl game with flying against scarf pao after it double flinched my cuno and i had scarf enam. I've seen sash paos a ton, and even mentioned in this thread. lokix exists, screens dark has been a thing forever. scarf darkrai is a thing, hell even muk takes sword + crash. lotta stuff u can do to get it into gambit ranges at +1/2 . the mirror absolutely doesnt need to be coming to a tie virtually every time.

argument he was making here was that the losses being against near unwinnable matchups and the wins being against very much non-meta teams makes both sets of games not really good examples of darks place in the meta, good or bad

by argument i just meant the ban argument. ur right the examples arent perfect. but easily losing to good, solidly common types works against the ban argument no?

Flying is a good example for this; even builds with Skarmory often double down to having Body Press on Corvi (iron head + press) as a backup for Skarm being flinched.

I have not seen this in agessss, and definitely not since bax was gone, u got any replays?

Once again, I agree that usage isn't everything and those replays aren't everything. Is Pao strong? fuck yeah. is dark overpowering? is it all over the place? none of the games played in the individuals or arguments suggests that to me. thats it from me tho


extend reqs deadline

 

[maroon]

Due to the PS outage we will be pushing back the deadline to get reqs by a day, you will now have until Friday April 17th @ 11:59pm -4 to submit your voter reqs. We will also be shortening the voting period to two days rather than the usual three so the results are posted before MPL Week 1 begins!

 

[TTK]

I got my reqs and I'll be voting ban, Chien Pao is one of many issues in the tier rn in terms of the overall power level being too high, which in turn leads to the really skewed viability of the 18 types. Its speed tier and damage is in a league of its own and there are very few defensive answers to it. Almost 3am so I'm not trying to write an essay but imagine a world where Grass might just be worth using or a world where Dark doesn't have Pao + Gambit (still really hate this mon but w/e)

It's time to get rid of these overtuned pokemon in our metagame and trust me, it's for the best.

 

[finncepti0n]

I am making this post as requested by Chaitanya.

First, I would like to establish where I agree with DNBers. Chien pao is very strong and overstat, but definitely has checks on most, if not all, types. It can definitely be played around and isn't broken, and that is reflected in the usage and win rate of dark [and ice].

With that being said, I still believe that chien pao is unhealthy for the metagame. This is because during prep before tournament matches it compels players to overprepare for it while losing out on more optimal options. Below I briefly go through chien pao's effects on each type and how people are forced to prep for it. Feel free to correct me, I don't have much time to practice right now so there could be many things that I may have missed:

Chien Pao Matchups

[fine] fairy
prim/azu (fine). The answers for fairy are pretty natural.

1 fire

Fire

speed control/ goug.
nothing switches into band pao after hazards (ting lu sup), sack sableye for twave (dark v fire [eject pack torkoal lead into ting to lead the momentum game? torkoal kinda buns tho. suboptimal])
can sack and then lock goug into raging fury (ice v fire).
forced to run scarfer (builder strain) even though fire does not have a very natural scarf user (infernape) or risk a large disadvantage by relying on sun + goug. can also run volcanion, but volcanion generally better sunless and then you lose out on h-wish, proto goug, sun boosted cudgel / pyro ball.

2 flying

Flying

forced to run id press corv / skarm. id press corv suboptimal and skarm has no defog (building strain)

[MAYBE] drag
arch + goug with ting lu hazards. arch gets worn down + meow support. goug is usually best swap in, but sableye / mandi can take a hit then sableye can click twave and progress is made on anything that it hits. mandi can u-turn, applying a lot of pressure bc goug player wouldnt wanna risk the toxic (coinflip i suppose)

3 steel

Steel

arch + skarm + ghold. hazards battle.

Skarm gets worn down with rocks up vs HDB pao and arch gets chipped by hazards. muk-a swaps into gholdengo. gholdengo gets worn down by hazards and can no longer swap into pao when hazards are up after one swap-in and swap-out. random crunch pao builds beat gholdengo.

Can choose to either pressure early by leading with hoopa-u / hydreig / gren or get hazards up early with ting (but risk hp of your ghold swap-in to archaludon body press) .

212+ Def Archaludon Body Press vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ting-Lu: 154-182 (29.9 - 35.4%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Leftovers recovery

Ting + sab are easy swap ins:

Sample Steel vs dark sequence

How does pao come in?: hoopa-u / gren / hydreig force double switches frequently. muk-a can force a double switch vs ghold.

1. skarm comes in on pao with rocks up. 252 Atk Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 100-118 (29.9 - 35.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock. 100% - (32% from crash + 12% from rocks) + 6% from lefties = 62%.
2. Sableye comes in on body press, spikes, or roost (likely roost, though it depends on team context and current threats).

IF Skarm used spikes or BP:
Sableye can use either W-O-W or encore (W-O-W is probably better) to either force skarm out at mid HP (so it can't swap into pao anymore) or risk having its lefties nullified by W-O-W. After it is burned it gets chipped eventually. If it is forced out it can't swap into pao anymore.

ELSE IF Skarm used roost:
Sableye can use either W-O-W or night shade (W-O-W usually better to have leverage in this scenario when it repeats). If skarm swaps out then the dark user makes progress, and the cycle repeats later. If skarm stays in, it gets chipped by night shade (100% - 30% + 6% = 76%. At this HP skarm can barely swap into pao [76% - 12% - %32*2 + %6 = %6]) and drops spikes OR has its lefties nullified by w-o-w and eventually loses the chip war.

In short, very scripted matchup. pao tips the scale even though a typical ice-dark pokemon would be less useful in such a matchup. it's the dark player's game to lose even though it's a neutral matchup. (sometimes a matchup can be favored one way but good play rewards the player in the unfavored position. In this case good play would not net any reward for the better player, however mistakes from the person playing dark would determine the matchup. This is uncompetitive.)

4 dark

speed tie coinflip. if both players are competent and running non-cheese/optimal dark teams then this entire matchup comes down to this 1 speed tie regardless of any progress made throughout the match. Hinging an entire matchup on a single speed tie is uncompetitive.

[fine] water
urshifu+ peli. the answers for water are pretty natural (fine)

5 ground
exca revenge / tusk. non-mandi teams may have trouble with exca, but with hazards chip + ice shard + ting lu / levitate / balloon. tusk gets walled easily by sableye/mandi. this forces suboptimal builds that lead to matchup fishing (RPS meta is uncompetitive)

6 psy
colbur slowbro (builder strain)

7 ghost
fm speed tie or scarf / mimikyu / scarf ghold (builder strain)

8 elec
rotom-w / iron hands

rotom-w is best answer but cant swap into band pao. iron hands gets walled by sableye and whittled down by hazards. forces elec to build with regieleki for rapid spin (builder strain).


fighting
zama / hands (in dark v mu the whole mu is just sableye + hazards vs val so this is irrelevant)

9 normal
ditto revenge kill/ speedtie. boots terapagos (muk-a support is an easy answer). forces suboptimal builds.

[maybe] poison

Poison

weezing-galar or pex. HDB pao can be handled but band pao is a threat.

252 Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Psychic Fangs vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 188-222 (62 - 73.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Choice Band Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Psychic Fangs vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Weezing-Galar: 224-264 (67.2 - 79.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Black Sludge recovery

neither pex nor weezing-g can swap into band pao. Normally it would be a 50/50 between swapping into muk-a or scouting with amoong / pex. muk-a gets chipped by hazards and is very important for the dark matchup.

Many poison builds have difficulty fitting hazards on the team, but even if they have hazards team support makes it trivial to hold pao for end-game clean / random taunt support from hydreigon on some dark builds.

[poison] would love hazards, but adding hazard setters isn't the easiest thing.
Overqwil requires a restructing of the defensive backbone and gives up something, Glimmora has major longevity issues and Clodsire has matchups like Flying where it legit can't do anything outside of clicking hazards.

- Penga

non-overqwil builds (which is most of them are since the tradeoff is losing the best standard spDef wall in poison [muk-a]) get whittled down vs band pao variants. As such, the dark user has the option to hold pao for later and pressure early with gren / hydreig / hoopa-u, or vice versa.

[Running overqwil over muk-A] is a big trade off as you need to run a different special mon like Glowking or Clodsire in return which do have their upsides (Glowking checks Latios better, Clodsire check Volc, both check Heatran) but come with their downsides (Flutter Mane is now much harder to dance around, hell ghost in general becomes rougher.)

- Penga

Along with support from the dark offensive core this matchup becomes very skewed although it is a neutral.

grass, rock, ice, bug - irrelevant

The point of this list is not to paint chien pao or dark as an omnipotent threat that can simultaneously run 4 builds, but to highlight how many viable/good possibilities you have to account for if you are prepping for a tour match. Even so, I still did not consider defog support, taunt support (except for the poison matchup), and random scarf variants on ice (because ice is largely irrelevant when prepping). In total, I counted 9 types (maybe 2 more if you include dragon and poison) that either have their matchups (vs dark specifically) decided by a script at preview, have their team diversity constrained because of pao, or just have their matchups very heavily skewed. This clearly demonstrates that it is centralizing because although there are other pokemon with very strong matchups into certain types (ex: primarina vs steel, scizor vs ice, etc.), they only heavily skew a handful of matchups or slightly skew a larger set of matchups. Meanwhile, chien pao has a noticeable impact on at least 9 types - which is over half of the viable metagame.

Another detail I would like to bring up is the usage of ghost and psychic. Both have viable builds, but are oppressed partly by the usage of dark. Removing chien pao would make these matchups more manageable and allow for ghost and psychic to be used more in the metagame, leading to more type diversity.

Additionally, removing pao would also lead to more team diversity as it would allow more flexibility in slots that are dedicated to dealing with chien pao.

The overpreparation for a pokemon is what leads to a Rock-Paper-Scissors meta, because you will end up having to give up some less common matchups to deal with things that are higher usage (think of all the teams that are unprepared for electric, espathra psychic, slush rush ice, volcarona, etc. as an easy way to understand this). This type of meta is a stereotype that the monotype community has been trying to distance itself from for a while. Although monotype is inherently matchup-based, matchup advantage and good prep should only give a reasonably-sized advantage and not lead to games where there's a predetermined decision path that leads to a guaranteed win, or even a guaranteed coinflip, in most matches. Sure, you can use more unorthodox tools, but in this meta it sacrifices too much to be considered. It's unreliable, is basically matchup-fishing, and often times only works because the standard meta is unprepared for it.


In short, although I agree that chien pao is not unmanageable and uncheckable, it still deserves to be removed from the metagame. Banning chien pao will lead to more team diversity within types, more type diversity, and a meta that is less prep-heavy/pre-determined. The game has evolved to the point where tiering no longer simply comes down to "do we ban this because it's unbeatable." Tiering should ultimately lead to the most competitive metagame possible.