3 bans seem likely. Potentially as early as later this weekend.
Since voting is taking place soon I'd like to take the opportunity to comment on 2 of the mons on the radar. Hopefully this changes the minds of some of those voting.
Chi-Yu is a strong breaker, no doubt. However, we've seen similar levels of power in OU before at the speed tier, viz (calculating against Arceus due to balanced defenses):
252 SpA Choice Specs Beads of Ruin Chi-Yu Overheat vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Arceus: 373-439 (97.9 - 115.2%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO
252 Atk Choice Band Victini V-create vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 313-370 (82.1 - 97.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO (gen 5-8 legal, probably legal gen9 once available)
252 Atk Choice Band Teravolt Kyurem-Black Outrage vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 307-363 (80.5 - 95.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO (gen 5-7 legal)
so it takes more than raw power to break a pokemon.
People are using Chi-Yu in high ladder and, from what I can tell, people aren't using things like Blissey, Specially Def TTar, or Dashburn to check it (despite what some people might claim). So what are
people using to check Chi-yu? I personally didn't have many problems with Chi-yu during my reqs run (although I did spam CB Ttar + physically def Toxapex + TankChomp to be fair), so I wanted to do an analysis of Chi-Yu counterplay in the OU tier. For simplicity, we're going to assume Chi-yu is running the following set:
Chi-Yu @ Choice Specs
Ability: Beads of Ruin
Tera Type: Fire
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
- Dark Pulse
Note: Pokémon A counters
Pokémon B if Pokémon A can manually switch
into Pokémon B and still win every time, even under the worst case scenario, without factoring in hax. (see: https://www.smogon.com/smog/issue32/checks-and-counters
). I will keep the list to B ranks and above (so no meme picks like Dashburn).
For now, we'll assume the defending pokemon has to switch into Stealth rock, while Chi-yu is at full health and can Terrastialize, while the defending pokemon cannot Terrestialize. Keep in mind the list of counters will often be longer than this because Chi-Yu does not always want to Terra.
These pokemon can Counter Chi-yu multiple times over the course of the game.
Has Recover to do this over the course of the game, and can even run covert cloak to ensure it doesn't get haxed via Dark Pulse.
- 252 SpA Choice Specs Beads of Ruin Tera Fire Chi-Yu Overheat over 2 turns vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Blissey: 510-602 (71.4 - 84.3%) -- not a KO
Heals up with Rest to ensure Chi-yu can't break it over the course of a game; also sets up Rocks to make sure Chi-yu takes 25% on switch-in.
- 252 SpA Choice Specs Beads of Ruin Tera Fire Chi-Yu Overheat over 2 turns vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 210-248 (51.9 - 61.3%) -- not a KO
Has Roost to stay healthy over the course of the game, and outspeeds and KOs Chi-yu with EQ if it tries to stay in.
- 252 SpA Choice Specs Beads of Ruin Tera Fire Chi-Yu Overheat vs. 252 HP / 152 SpD Roaring Moon: 249-293 (60.1 - 70.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
These pokemon can switch into Chi-yu and win 1v1.
Takes any hit, even Tera Fire Overheat, and forces Chi-yu out with the threat of EQ, and can even set Rocks to make Chi-yu take 25% on switch-in:
- 252 SpA Choice Specs Beads of Ruin Tera Fire Chi-Yu Overheat vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Garchomp: 332-391 (79 - 93%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
- 0 Atk Garchomp Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Tera Fire Chi-Yu: 324-384 (129 - 152.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
And that's it! That's all the Chi-Yu counters in the current metagame. Don't worry though, there are more ways to beat a wallbreaker than countering it; wallbreakers would quite frankly be pretty bad if they had a lot of counters because it means they would be getting walled instead of wallbreaking. Instead, wallbreakers quite frequently have a lot of Checks, and this is how most teams handle them. Let's see the list:
Pokémon A checks
Pokémon B if, when Pokémon A is given a free switch
into Pokémon B, Pokémon A can win every time, even under the worst case scenario, without factoring in hax. (see: https://www.smogon.com/smog/issue32/checks-and-counters
). I will keep the list to B ranks and above (so no meme picks like Dashburn).
: These pokemon can switch into anything but Tera Fire overheat and win 1v1.
- CB can switch into any move other than Tera Fire Overheat and force it out with Banded Aqua Jet.
- AV variants don't get 2hkod by moves not named Tera Fire Overheat, and can KO back with Liquidation or 2HKO with Aqua Jet (or OHKO with SR chip)
TTar easily tanks a hit if Chi-yu doesn't tera and forces it out:
- 252 SpA Choice Specs Beads of Ruin Chi-Yu Overheat vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 145-171 (42.5 - 50.1%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO
- Roaring moon tanks any hit if Chi-yu doesn't Tera, and forces it out with the threat of EQ:
- 252 SpA Choice Specs Beads of Ruin Chi-Yu Overheat vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Roaring Moon: 216-254 (61.5 - 72.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Can force Chi-yu out if it doesn't Tera with the threat of EQ, and can set up Rocks to ensure it takes 25% on the next switch.
- 252 SpA Choice Specs Beads of Ruin Chi-Yu Overheat over 2 turns vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Vessel of Ruin Ting-Lu: 407-483 (79.1 - 93.9%) -- not a KO
These pokemon win against Chi-Yu 1v1 with a free switch, even if Chi-Yu chooses to Tera.
KO's with EQ.
Multiscale tanks and hit and KOs back with +1 eq, or Earthquake + Espeed.
KO's with Draco Meteor:
- 252 SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Chi-Yu: 226-267 (90 - 106.3%) -- 37.5% chance to OHKO
KO's with Wave Crash.
Scarf KO's with Power Gem
Outspeeds and KO's with EQ
Scarf Ditto checks every offensive mon out there
Scarf Rotom KO's with Hydro Pump
Close combat has a chance to KO even if Chi-yu decides to Tera.
These pokemon force Chi-Yu to Terra to win 1v1.
HJK ko's if Chi-Yu doesn't terra
Scarf Focus Blast KO's if Chi-Yu doesn't tera
Heals back up with Drain Punch if Chi-Yu doesn't tera, and if Tera is availbile can even Tera to halve the damage from Fire STAB.
KO's with Secret Sword if Chi-yu does not Tera.
If Chi-Yu does not Terra, Fighting STAB OHKOs (and OHKO's anyway if Chi-yu has taken Rocks chip)
Takes anything but Tera Fire Overheat and KO's back with EQ
Mach punch KO's if Chi-Yu does not tera.
Close Combat KO's if Chi-yu does not Tera.
Banded First Impression KO's if Chi-Yu does not Tera.
Toxapex: Can Scout moves (other than a predicted Psychic) and switch into the appropiate resist (or switch into something that can take overheat after a -2 drop)
Good Prediction: Predicting between Fire/Dark resists (viz: Cendeluge + Iron Valient) can be enough to beat Chi-yu in a game
Overall, I view Chi-Yu as a mon that punishes the metagame's over centralization around Great Tusk + Recover Gholdenego metagame. Other ground types (Garchomp, Ting-lu, Iron Treads) have a better matchup against Chi-Yu. I've also seen more Scarf Gholdenego in high ladder matches to punish Chi-yu when it attempts to use Gholdenego as a way to get a kill against offense.
In addition, I don't think it's too much to ask stall to run a Blissey to counter Chi-Yu, nor it is too much to ask Balance to run 2+ Hard Checks/Soft Counters (Viz: TankChomp + Azumarill or Roaring Moon + Azumarill or CB Tar + TankChomp or CB Tar + Ting-Lu, or other combinations), or a Hard Check + 2 other Checks (Roaring Moon + Iron Treads + Rotom-W, among other combinations); and offense can easily run multiple (4+) checks--in fact, it's easy enough to build a team full of the checks on this list.
There's also the opportunity cost of running Chi-Yu to consider. I suspect Chi-yu's usage will continue to drop over the month even if it's legal due to competition with Cinderace as an offensive Fire-type; Cinderace's Court Change is super valuable in a hazard centric metagame like this one, and Cinderace has a pivoting move with U-turn to boot. Over time, I suspect people will regard Chi-Yu as just another strong breaker, like Banded Victini or Kyurem-Black, instead of something that needs to be banned.
I'll write up my thoughts on Annaliape later.
Oh, and please ban Chien-Pao.