The Everything NFL Thread - 2016-17 Season

[WaterBomb]

You know, I was reading some hero's post and for funsies thought I would run some numbers. I am going to post the career stats of all four of those "interchangeable" QBs he mentioned (Brady, Rivers, BB, and Romo) and see who can identify who they are. To make this more challenging, I am going to remove total yards completely and change TDs/INTs to a simple ratio. These results may surprise you: there's also a bonus 5th qb thanks to pretzels.

QB 1:
7.9 YPA
64.1 comp %
1.88:1 TD-INT ratio
94.1 Passer Rating

QB 2:
7.7 YPA
64.4 Comp %
2.01:1 TD-INT ratio
94.7 Passer Rating

QB 3:
7.5 YPA
63.8 comp %
3:1 TD-INT ratio
97.2 Passer Rating

QB 4:
7.9 YPA
65.3 comp %
2.12:1 TD-INT ratio
97.1 Passer Rating

QB 5
7.7 YPA
65.3 Comp %
2.15 TD-INT ratio
96.5 Passer rating

Who can guess which is which? Let's see!

 

[Pretzels]

You know, I was reading some hero's post and for funsies thought I would run some numbers. I am going to post the career stats of all four of those "interchangeable" QBs he mentioned (Brady, Rivers, BB, and Romo) and see who can identify who they are. To make this more challenging, I am going to remove total yards completely and change TDs/INTs to a simple ratio. These results may surprise you:

QB 1:
7.9 YPA
64.1 comp %
1.88:1 TD-INT ratio
94.1 Passer Rating

QB 2:
7.7 YPA
64.4 Comp %
2.01:1 TD-INT ratio
94.7 Passer Rating

QB 3:
7.5 YPA
63.8 comp %
3:1 TD-INT ratio
97.2 Passer Rating

QB 4:
7.9 YPA
65.3 comp %
2.12:1 TD-INT ratio
97.1 Passer Rating

Who can guess which is which? Let's see!

I know em all

But you should add this one

QB 5
7.7 YPA
65.3 Comp %
2.15 TD-INT ratio
96.5 Passer rating

 

[TheValkyries]

So the thing that never really gets talked about when evaluating Brady is that he went 199 in the draft for a reason. He is not a talented passer. Period. Full Stop. His arm strength can only get a ball out to 15 yards with any accurate consistency. The only time he's ever had a deep ball in his life is when he's throwing to some of the best pass catchers in the history of the game. There are two reasons Brady excels and they are his understanding of his own limitations and his understanding of defenses.

People always love to put Peyton on the pedestal of cerebral magnitude but in reality a ton of what Peyton did was after the snap arm-talent based. It's those things that lead him to be preyed upon by smart defenses in playoffs who would improvise on his known tendencies and be placed they normally shouldn't be (Troy Polamalu being the bane of his existence is a good example). Brady has been far better throughout his career at never being fooled by defensive disguises and making the right decisions. He knows before the snap what coverage you're going to drop into and how he has to look left at a deep post so that his right side crosser will be open in the midfield. Again Peyton did those things too but he was never able to acknowledge and adjust to defenses also being smart, whereas Brady does.

The other thing Brady does is he copies Aaron Rodgers as much as possible because he knows Aaron Rodgers is a monstrous freak of QB excellence. There is no better pocket presence in the League than Rodgers and there is no one better on the run. Brady understands he can't make the throws into the Windows Rodgers throws to but he knows that by copying the technique he can eke out as much from his own limited skillset as he can. This is why Brady's pocket presence has markedly improved over the past few seasons, moving his feet more, manipulating pass rush to reengage with blockers when they gain an edge. His own improvement in that area has improved his offensive line play as well.

The analogy I'd make for styles of QB play is like a food chain. Aaron Rodgers is your Apex Predator, Peyton Manning is a more Mid-Tier Predator, and Brady is like a skittish herbivore like a Deer who just is hyper alert and runs away at the first sign of danger.

All 3 get fed but Rodgers and Manning will have more diverse and robust diets whereas Brady subsists off of whatever he can get. Manning gets eaten more often than Brady or Rodgers but for entirely different reasons.

But success isn't only how much you eat and how much you don't get eaten right? Just as it isn't limited to total statistical performance. They're good markers but not the whole picture. So yes Brady is relatively statistically unimpressive but you're comparing a herbivore QB to Predators and missing the context of that.

 

[some hero]

You'd think he'd have a greater appreciation for a QB that has 2 turnovers the entire season

Especially since he watches Eli Manning turn the ball over twice a quarter every game

Brady is one of my favorite players to watch. I love the way he stands. No fear. It's something else. If anyone wants to watch quintessential Brady the '12 season is his best and my favorite. My frustration on that post is because every article or fan or commentator or whatever these days all say something like "greatest season... at age 39!!". It's annoying.

 

[TheValkyries]

Why isn't my post getting any likes that was quality shit from me fuck you all for being haters.

 

[some hero]

I liked it. I have liked Brady for a while like i said above but mostly because he's really fun to watch. Brady and the way he stands. Brees the way he scans the field. Eli and his fidgety movement. Rodgers with his perfect body motions etc I just never saw him as one of the greats because i try to focus more on individual performance instead of impact on the game. Maybe i'll create another top qb list using other standards.

 

[xJownage]

joe montana has a 2:1 td:int and a 92.3 passer rating for his career and he's still widely regarded as the best ever. clutch and winning are two stats you can't track that matter much more than base stats (are you really gonna call kirk cousins one of the top qbs all time based on his stats alone???)

 

[JackTheGordie]

Are we gonna be doing brackets in a separate thread again or should we just post them in here?

 

[WaterBomb]

I'd prefer a separate thread but I don't have time to set it up or track it so someone else will have to

 

[Pretzels]

Why isn't my post getting any likes that was quality shit from me fuck you all for being haters.

I disagree with to much of it.

Brady has the best pocket presence of all time and there's no one else remotely close to him in the NFL this season

Brady has the best sack percentage in the NFL at age 39, and his pocket presence this season has been ungodly.

This season Rodgers isn't even in the Top 10 and his oline allows the least amount of pressure in all of football.

For instance Andrew luck's line allows the most pressure in football and he took 41 sacks this season. Rodgers took 35 and his oline allows the least. Which shows that many of the sacks that he takes are on him, not his oline.

Brady also had the best DVOA on deep and intermediate throws in the NFL this season despite not having great pass catcher. Former lax player and well known 3rd interchangeable white Patriots receiver Chris Hogan leads the NFL in YPC for gods sake.

Brady hasn't just markedly improved his pocket presence these last few seasons, hes completely reversed his career arc by improving on every single facet of his game at an age where most quarterbacks fall off the map entirely.

In short, At age 38 and 39 Tom Brady has been CLEARLY superior to Aaron Rodgers (who is still in his prime) in every single non volume metric (and would be superior in those too if not for you know what) this season and last season.

Despite having FAR inferior protection arguably inferior pass catchers.

 

[TheValkyries]

Pocket Presence isn't just avoiding getting sacked, pocket presence is stuff like when a defender sprints to the outside trying to turn the corner knowing to take a step up into the pocket to keep the blocker between you and the edge rusher. This is something Rodgers has been doing forever just in his sleep and while I agree that Brady's presence is superb he only developed it to its current level by copying Rodgers.

I mean: holy fuck

And Brady's statistical failings against Rodgers are not just in volume it's in averages as well. Rodgers attacks the field in ways Brady simply doesn't have the ability to. Rodgers ekes more out of every ball than anyone else in the league.

And for the record Rodgers has a significantly worse receiving corps than Brady. Rodgers USED to have a great one but now all the talent has either left or is too aged/injured. Rodgers is throwing to recievers who can barely catch and have difficulty getting open and is so mind numbingly good that it fools you into thinking they're good.

Look! Some more Cian Fahey Tweets.

 

[xJownage]

Pocket Presence isn't just avoiding getting sacked, pocket presence is stuff like when a defender sprints to the outside trying to turn the corner knowing to take a step up into the pocket to keep the blocker between you and the edge rusher. This is something Rodgers has been doing forever just in his sleep and while I agree that Brady's presence is superb he only developed it to its current level by copying Rodgers.

I mean: holy fuck

And Brady's statistical failings against Rodgers are not just in volume it's in averages as well. Rodgers attacks the field in ways Brady simply doesn't have the ability to. Rodgers ekes more out of every ball than anyone else in the league.

And for the record Rodgers has a significantly worse receiving corps than Brady. Rodgers USED to have a great one but now all the talent has either left or is too aged/injured. Rodgers is throwing to recievers who can barely catch and have difficulty getting open and is so mind numbingly good that it fools you into thinking they're good.

Look! Some more Cian Fahey Tweets.

yes because cobb/nelson/adams/cook < edleman/hogan/mitchell/bennett. I could pull you wow plays like that from guys like blake bortles, that isn't a support for an argument for a position where the most important thing is consistency (and aaron rodgers' sack total is a major drawback).

 

[WaterBomb]

Rodgers' sack total is naturally going to be higher because he extends plays in ways brady just can't. Brady is going to throw it away much more often than he's going to escape a collapsing pocket and scramble to find an open guy. These guys are both great qbs but have different approaches so it's not really fair to use a stat like sack total against one of them when it's a by product of their risk/reward style. The same argument has been used against bb for years, when that ability to extend plays is actually something a lot of coordinators covet. Brady's strength lies in his unparalleled ability to read defenses pre snap, adjust, continue to read post snap and VERY quickly make a decision. Brady doesn't HAVE to scramble because he's able to make his decision before the pocket even collapses in the first place (most of the time). This is also a highly coveted skill, and it's his particular style. It also leads to more "throw aways" than Rodgers likely has. So pick your poison here, but both of these qbs are incredible for different reasons.

 

[bludz]

I want to point out how ridiculous the giants D has been this season before the playoffs start. They are currently second in the league in points allowed with 284 and the pats number 1 at 250. The difference? the Giants have faced an onslaught of offensive oriented teams with 9 of their 16 games against top 16 Offenses. That is a brutal schedule and to have allowed so little points against those opponents is crazy. The pats on the other hand only faced 4 teams with such offenses and one of them without their starting qb(steelers). They also played 6 games against teams with bottom 6 Os. The Giants D has the potential to shut down any offense and the Giants have the potential to win the SB. Off course it's not guaranteed and worth watching because of their offense, but right now the Giants are the most underrated and dangerous playoff team.

Another way to put it in perspective is that the Giants have allowed fewer touchdowns than any other team, and they've played 84 more defensive plays than the Patriots who own the best scoring defense.

Also just to weigh in on this discussion... to me, Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL. He possesses all the physical tools that you could ever really want at the position. Tom Brady is great, quite possibly the goat, and he is certainly better at some things than Rodgers - mostly the mental aspect of the game, although Rodgers is quite good at that too - but to me Rodgers is a guy who is capable of practically single-handedly lifting a team to victory with mind-blowing plays that nobody else can make. Tom Brady I think needs more help from the supporting cast because his greatest advantage is putting them in the right plays at the right time. Rodgers literally gives his guys an extra few seconds to get open even if they can't get open on the play design. And don't get me wrong, I think Brady is incredible.

 

[Pretzels]

Pocket Presence isn't just avoiding getting sacked

Of course its not all of it, but its a huge part of it.

And for the record Rodgers has a significantly worse receiving corps than Brady.

Jordy Nelson is far better than anyone Brady has.

And Brady's statistical failings against Rodgers are not just in volume it's in averages as well. Rodgers attacks the field in ways Brady simply doesn't have the ability to. Rodgers ekes more out of every ball than anyone else in the league.

Since KC killed old Tom Brady in week 4 of the 2014 season and new Tom Brady rose from his ashes like a phoenix, hes been superior to Rodgers in almost every facet of the game according to every statistical outlet there is.

That's a fact, not an opinion

This is Brady this season compared to the Second best QB Matt Ryan (who's going to be MVP)

This is Rodgers compared to Ryan

You link those tweets with all those amazing throws which is great, but literally all it shows is that Aaron Rodgers can make amazing throws.

Just because Rodgers has the ABILITY to do things Brady can't do doesn't mean hes been superior to Brady.

If we judged QBs by their ABILITY instead of their execution Cam Newton would be the best QB in the NFL every single year.

You can Drool over Rodgers talent all you want, but he hasn't been better.

You've proved that he has the ABILITY to be better but for whatever reason hasn't been.

And as you well know it takes more than just ability to be better than Brady

 

[some hero]

This is some exciting stuff. Let me grab some popcorn. How will thevalkirie respond?

I'd still take romo over Brady any day.

 

[bludz]

the above graph clearly needs to be sourced because Tom Brady is the best short yardage back in the league so i dont know how his rushing stat is so low

 

[xJownage]

This is some exciting stuff. Let me grab some popcorn. How will thevalkirie respond?

I'd still take romo over Brady any day.

also romo being better than brady LOL you basically proved my bias point.

 

[Stallion]

All this QB arguing and discussion is futile, everyone knows that Justin Tucker is the MVP

 

[TheValkyries]

See that's the thing though Pretzels is that those graphs aren't just raw statiscal analysis which was my original point, to truly appreciate any of these top guys you have to take the stats and the context in which they're gained. I agree that Rodgers has not outperformed Brady but he has outplayed him. Which is a seemingly useless nuance but an important one to recognize imho.

While Jordy Nelson USED to be better than all but Gronkowski on the Patriots he has not at all been the same guy this year, since he's been struggling to get open at all in his route running. He's clearly lost a step and now relies on Rodgers to get him the ball and "throw him open" rather than giving Rodgers places to put the ball and being open. In that regard Julian Edelman has been consistently better than Jordy Nelson this season because while Brady is great at throwing recievers open (within a certain distance) Edelman also excels in the Patriots offense at getting separation off of who he's lined up against. Add in Running Backs who Brady can line up against any linebacker and have them win and get separation in Dion Lewis AND James White as well as Marty B being Gronkowski-lite we have recievers who can fairly consistently get open for Tom Brady whereas Rodgers (like WaterBomb said) can buy time and still not have anyone really be open.

Really the most significant difference is Brady averages less than 1 mistake a game whereas Rodgers toes a line of risk/reward that can get him punished and sometimes does, so Rodgers has more (any) bad games than Brady but he also blatantly has better peak/ceiling games than Brady (read: what he did against the Vikings and the Lions in the last two weeks).

So for Rodgers to perform as well as Brady he needs to get a little help from his teammates and his offensive system that he simply doesn't get. But this doesn't mean Rodgers hasn't been mostly playing at the peak of his capabilities which are stupidly ridiculous. To contrast Brady ALWAYS plays at his peak which isn't as high as Rodgers but the CONSISTENCY is staggering. And also Brady does get to benefit off of the help around him (Matt Ryan gets to benefit the most; fuck you Killah and Julio Jones and Kyle Shanahan).

So like I've been saying the clear MVP is Zeke Elliot.

Fuck David Johnson.

 

[JackTheGordie]

Bracket thread is up: http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/2017-nfl-playoffs-pickem-thread.3591918/

 

[Killah]

man last year Kyle Shanahan was an idiot and outside of Julio all Matt Ryan's receivers were trash... this year he's a genius and Matt Ryan has a higher passer rating throwing to anyone but Julio who knows!!!

(not gonna argue that the Falcons don't have strong O weapons for the same reason I don't try to convince Matt Ryan is better than the top 3 QBs, they do and he isn't)

 

[Pretzels]

Really the most significant difference is Brady averages less than 1 mistake a game whereas Rodgers toes a line of risk/reward that can get him punished and sometimes does, so Rodgers has more (any) bad games than Brady but he also blatantly has better peak/ceiling games than Brady (read: what he did against the Vikings and the Lions in the last two weeks).

Ill take Brady's ability to do everything perfectly on 99% of plays over Rodgers ability to go above and beyond on 5-10 plays a game

I think the 3:15 mark of this video kinda explains what im talking about

 

[Randombobman]

Also the fact that Rodgers is a fucking douche and doesn't associate with his family any more
http://totalpackers.com/2016/11/aaron-rodgers-hasnt-spoken-family-years/

I know it doesn't matter on the field but you can be a decent human being while still being a star athlete

 

[WaterBomb]

Also the fact that Rodgers is a fucking douche and doesn't associate with his family any more
http://totalpackers.com/2016/11/aaron-rodgers-hasnt-spoken-family-years/

I know it doesn't matter on the field but you can be a decent human being while still being a star athlete

Unless you're actually one of his family members and have experienced this first hand it is none of your business and you don't know the whole story. How do you know his family isn't crazy and trying to cash in on his success? How do you know this isn't just some bs made by a disgruntled third cousin who is bitter because Rodgers wouldn't give him money? That article reeks of one sided bias, and either way whether it's true or not it's still his business and not ours.