i dropped my resume the other day for a job titled "catastrophe modeling analyst"I suppose the risk that I am mostly thinking about that fails your scenario and your take is risk that I would define as "catastrophic." Catastrophic risk is risk that isn't calculable. The reason catastrophic risk makes a mathematical understanding of risk incoherent for me is that it's unable to define the nature of catastrophe. The consequences of a potential catastrophe are treated as unimportant because the risk is so negligible. And yet, catastrophes happen anyways and the risk becomes a reality. A mathematical understanding doesn't really treat these situations adequately in my opinion.
so i'm going to have to hard disagree with you on this one