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NOC Town of Salem 2 Mafia: Revival - WON BY THE MAFIA AND THE WITCH
- Thread starter Ehmcee
- Start date
I don't know I think joey d1 confuses me even more than lechen d1 I mean if this guy was mafia what the hell was he doing pushing and attempting to flash wagon his teammate all day 1 it just doesn't make any sense
the evie thing is weird too because that would actually be really useful for joey to not bring up and just let evie die because that's such a powerful role so why would joey do that in lieu of pushing his teammate. that has to be some deep level strategy. tbh joey always get me as mafia so maybe I do have to give him the benefit of the doubt and think that's in his mafia bag
going with my assumption celever is town here
a fairy (8): Celever, Miyami, des121, Alice Kazumi, Evie, Aura Guardian, Jalmont, joey
Aura Guardian (5): Lechen, Dead by Daylight, HydrogenHydreigon, a fairy, ElectricityCat
No Vote (1): AirC
this is such a weird breakdown I really have no clue what the mafia was trying to accomplish AG was just going to do whatever to not get voted. Miyami and Alice look like two scum votes parked on non-scum to avoid the issue of not being on at deadline for the most part. if joey is town then dbd is scum ???
dbd is really all over the place with his votes d1 going from des to evie and then landing on AG??? also why did this guy watch AG on night 2...what was the point of that. why would you WATCH someone you thought was MAFIA?
ok also dbd has 1 page of posting since day 1 which is just lol. he's sadly really fallen off the face of the earth. people disappearing and avoiding posting unfortunately is quite a mafia tell but idk.
I need to get my laundry and eat so later I'll need to look at the dbd tinfoils to see if this is even possible.
without thinking about mech and just using my "reading abilities" I think I go cel > joey/Alice > dbd > Miyami >>> lechen. going to have to look at the mech to see if that fits in a bit per the above paragraph
we probably should have hammered this guy asap
well I guess I didn't vote and idk if I even posted this day so my fault
sorry, I've been rather busy the past few days + didn't reread much, will respond now
Regarding the Miyami/Joey war:
Will be back later, ping me with any questions please. Currently up to page 51 after re-reading today's interactions.
If you had read my reasoning, I was willing to vote anyone that day who was not a fairy - I thought fairy was a terrible vote on that day compared to attempting to untangle the D1 knot, or failing that, a flashwagon onto a more suspicious person. That's why I went from des to Evie and then to AG - both were competing flashwagons to what I saw as a terrible main wagon
Regarding the Miyami/Joey war:
I think this has a really simple answer - it isn't expected, and it's easy for an experienced mafia player to instruct the mafia to form a lie like such.
Will be back later, ping me with any questions please. Currently up to page 51 after re-reading today's interactions.
Fine I’ll check in I guess lmao
Hydro did a lot of work but yeah he forgot that Lechen can’t kill Joey for towncred so I’m not sure it amounted to anything sorry fren
We’re basically just gonna have to come up with a vote. Jalmont wanting to go for Lechen is a little weird to me but there’s a decent case for it
The main trouble with everything here is Alice’s alignment is necessary to discover before we can solve deeper. Like, maybe Lechen’s kill failing is ok if Alice was moling and knew where it was headed, she could have actually had scum target Joey twice in that event to block the kill
And yeah, her knowledge of transporter targets could mean DBD isn’t proven because scum would reasonably self-target
Is it possible for us to be fine even if she is town, because if it is then it might just be the necessary information gathering vote here
Hydro did a lot of work but yeah he forgot that Lechen can’t kill Joey for towncred so I’m not sure it amounted to anything sorry fren
We’re basically just gonna have to come up with a vote. Jalmont wanting to go for Lechen is a little weird to me but there’s a decent case for it
The main trouble with everything here is Alice’s alignment is necessary to discover before we can solve deeper. Like, maybe Lechen’s kill failing is ok if Alice was moling and knew where it was headed, she could have actually had scum target Joey twice in that event to block the kill
And yeah, her knowledge of transporter targets could mean DBD isn’t proven because scum would reasonably self-target
Is it possible for us to be fine even if she is town, because if it is then it might just be the necessary information gathering vote here
Ok not really it’s 5-3-1 rn we do have to get it right lol
Icl I just don’t really know what to do
Lechen is the likeliest hit in my opinion but Jalmont being the person pushing him worries me
But that would happen for anyone bc the conftown haven’t been here so much, and Jalmont’s posting is stupidly towny lpl
Icl I just don’t really know what to do
Lechen is the likeliest hit in my opinion but Jalmont being the person pushing him worries me
But that would happen for anyone bc the conftown haven’t been here so much, and Jalmont’s posting is stupidly towny lpl
My solve right now, I think, is Miyami/Celever + 2 of Lechen/JALMONT/Alice (probably in that order of likelihood? but idk about JALMONT/Lechen together after JALMONT's posting today)
Read-based:
My core belief that leads me to this conclusion is the gamestate we are in right now. Entering the day, it is 5-4 and there is no obvious vote for today. Mafia needs just one misvote to win. If I were mafia, I wouldn't just roll over and let town figure out what to do - mafia needs to be active today and really push the narrative along to eventually lead people to a misvote. And I think Miyami/Celever are both essentially doing that, though through very different approaches.
At the start of the day, most everyone was still planning on entertaining the town leader meta - give results to Hydro and let him compile them with the towncore, and then he would report his findings and we would analyze them. I'm not saying we would've had Hydro simply tell us who to vote and do that, but coming into the day there was a decent chance that there would be a mechnically guaranteed-evil vote today, which would buy us another day of results and discussion. It didn't work out that way, but no one knew that until the massclaim.
Miyami, however, went into the day guns-blazing and immediately publicized her results and tried to start a vote on me. Why would she do this? I acknowledge that if she were a town and had her Psychic results, from her perspective I would be confirmed evil. But this is essentially a "trust me bro" source. It would be a huge misplay from town to follow these results blindly, so the public callout at the start of the day kind of has no purpose.
Celever, on the other hand, took the other possible approach. Celever has been very active all day controlling the vibes of the thread. In multiple message he has diminished my solving as far fetched theories. I acknowledge that the Roxie thing is a bit of a far fetched theory, but he is downplaying my posts to only entertaining that theory. I am attempting to cover all bases by acknowledging all possibilities, while he is trying to drive the narrative in a specific way. He is building up to be the one who "has to" choose a vote, since he is the major gameplayer today. And that is his end goal, in my opinion. Whoever he ends up choosing will be the vote he thinks is most realistic townie to get other townies on, which sounds at the moment from his posts like Lechen (if Lechen is a townie) or Alice (if Lechen isn't).
In terms of overall reads:
I townread Miyami d2, but it wasn't really off of much. She posted inquisitively as you would expect a new player to do, and I think she put up a good facade that seems townie but could really be any alignment. As I'm writing this I wonder if this could mean Miyami is the witch? It makes a lot of sense to me thinking that Miyami's d2 was un-informed because she hadn't contacted the mafia yet, but then switched to informed d3 or d4 when she got into contact with them and shared information. I think tunnelling me today is simply bad townie play - the "concrete" evidence against me only comes from her perspective and it's not realistic to expect townies to just hop on that vote blindly.
I scumread Celever day 2 for thread presence and his thread presence today, as I already mentioned, has just driven this further in the scum direction in my opinion. This was my read on Celever, and I think it still rings true.
Mechanically:
Miyami is my strongest personally for obvious reasons but I acknowledge she's not confirmed scum from anyone else's POV. I do think people are way understating how easy a Psychic claim is for an evil to make, and if you look at all of Miyami's results they would be perfectly easy to fake. And not to mention she has disproportionately rolled names that were alignment-confirmed by the time she had to claim (the evil in her n1 (af), the innocent in her n2 (Evie), two non-evil of her n3 (des/hyhy), and the innocent of her n4 (hyhy)). Obviously the n3 is the one that stands out but I think it really makes sense for her to force herself in to a 50-50. If she stays a Psychic claim with no useful results, that's super sus by d5 - but if she's in a 50-50, people will be less likely to vote her.
I want to reiterate, because I feel like people are glossing over this a bit, Celever's claim is reliant on a townie having lied to Hydro. If AirC really visited Celever n3 as he claimed he would to Hydro, he would've died to Celever's alert. And it's pretty much impossible for AirC to have been witched - Ecat and AirC were transed with each other, so the witch would've had to target Ecat (a transporter, which would do nothing). Even if theoretically the witch knew where the tranport was going, they wouldn't SAVE a townie from dying. The only thing watering down the implications of this is that Lechen's claim also has significant problems - it's reliant on mafia doing some very specific visits to prevent his kill from going off. I've already established that I think there is a world where Celever/Lechen to be scum together, but even putting that aside - in my opinion, mafia playing very specific mechanics is more possible than a townie lying to the confirmed townie town leader.
I centered this post around just Miyami and Celever because I really feel like there's not enough known right now to make a call on the other 3 in my solve. JALMONT didn't have much d2 content and has come back today mostly coming to negative conclusions towards Lechen, which sort of makes them into a 50-50 (not a locked 50-50 at all, just in my head). Alice was townie enough d2 and on to be in the towncore, so I think we really need concrete evidence before we try to vote her otherwise we will just look stupid from turning on one of the towncore.
At the moment I will have a really hard time voting for anyone other than Miyami or Celever.
Read-based:
My core belief that leads me to this conclusion is the gamestate we are in right now. Entering the day, it is 5-4 and there is no obvious vote for today. Mafia needs just one misvote to win. If I were mafia, I wouldn't just roll over and let town figure out what to do - mafia needs to be active today and really push the narrative along to eventually lead people to a misvote. And I think Miyami/Celever are both essentially doing that, though through very different approaches.
At the start of the day, most everyone was still planning on entertaining the town leader meta - give results to Hydro and let him compile them with the towncore, and then he would report his findings and we would analyze them. I'm not saying we would've had Hydro simply tell us who to vote and do that, but coming into the day there was a decent chance that there would be a mechnically guaranteed-evil vote today, which would buy us another day of results and discussion. It didn't work out that way, but no one knew that until the massclaim.
Miyami, however, went into the day guns-blazing and immediately publicized her results and tried to start a vote on me. Why would she do this? I acknowledge that if she were a town and had her Psychic results, from her perspective I would be confirmed evil. But this is essentially a "trust me bro" source. It would be a huge misplay from town to follow these results blindly, so the public callout at the start of the day kind of has no purpose.
Celever, on the other hand, took the other possible approach. Celever has been very active all day controlling the vibes of the thread. In multiple message he has diminished my solving as far fetched theories. I acknowledge that the Roxie thing is a bit of a far fetched theory, but he is downplaying my posts to only entertaining that theory. I am attempting to cover all bases by acknowledging all possibilities, while he is trying to drive the narrative in a specific way. He is building up to be the one who "has to" choose a vote, since he is the major gameplayer today. And that is his end goal, in my opinion. Whoever he ends up choosing will be the vote he thinks is most realistic townie to get other townies on, which sounds at the moment from his posts like Lechen (if Lechen is a townie) or Alice (if Lechen isn't).
In terms of overall reads:
I townread Miyami d2, but it wasn't really off of much. She posted inquisitively as you would expect a new player to do, and I think she put up a good facade that seems townie but could really be any alignment. As I'm writing this I wonder if this could mean Miyami is the witch? It makes a lot of sense to me thinking that Miyami's d2 was un-informed because she hadn't contacted the mafia yet, but then switched to informed d3 or d4 when she got into contact with them and shared information. I think tunnelling me today is simply bad townie play - the "concrete" evidence against me only comes from her perspective and it's not realistic to expect townies to just hop on that vote blindly.
I scumread Celever day 2 for thread presence and his thread presence today, as I already mentioned, has just driven this further in the scum direction in my opinion. This was my read on Celever, and I think it still rings true.
In terms of the vote on day 2, Celever started the vote on a fairy - which I still think was logically correct when he started it, so I'm not going to scumread him for that. But I do want to acknowledge that by voting for a fairy, he avoided taking any side on the other vote that was brewing (Evie or AG), which turned out to be Town vs Scum.
Mechanically:
Miyami is my strongest personally for obvious reasons but I acknowledge she's not confirmed scum from anyone else's POV. I do think people are way understating how easy a Psychic claim is for an evil to make, and if you look at all of Miyami's results they would be perfectly easy to fake. And not to mention she has disproportionately rolled names that were alignment-confirmed by the time she had to claim (the evil in her n1 (af), the innocent in her n2 (Evie), two non-evil of her n3 (des/hyhy), and the innocent of her n4 (hyhy)). Obviously the n3 is the one that stands out but I think it really makes sense for her to force herself in to a 50-50. If she stays a Psychic claim with no useful results, that's super sus by d5 - but if she's in a 50-50, people will be less likely to vote her.
I want to reiterate, because I feel like people are glossing over this a bit, Celever's claim is reliant on a townie having lied to Hydro. If AirC really visited Celever n3 as he claimed he would to Hydro, he would've died to Celever's alert. And it's pretty much impossible for AirC to have been witched - Ecat and AirC were transed with each other, so the witch would've had to target Ecat (a transporter, which would do nothing). Even if theoretically the witch knew where the tranport was going, they wouldn't SAVE a townie from dying. The only thing watering down the implications of this is that Lechen's claim also has significant problems - it's reliant on mafia doing some very specific visits to prevent his kill from going off. I've already established that I think there is a world where Celever/Lechen to be scum together, but even putting that aside - in my opinion, mafia playing very specific mechanics is more possible than a townie lying to the confirmed townie town leader.
I centered this post around just Miyami and Celever because I really feel like there's not enough known right now to make a call on the other 3 in my solve. JALMONT didn't have much d2 content and has come back today mostly coming to negative conclusions towards Lechen, which sort of makes them into a 50-50 (not a locked 50-50 at all, just in my head). Alice was townie enough d2 and on to be in the towncore, so I think we really need concrete evidence before we try to vote her otherwise we will just look stupid from turning on one of the towncore.
At the moment I will have a really hard time voting for anyone other than Miyami or Celever.
Lol I have no interest in choosing the vote I tried to call to arms Hydro / Evie / DBD when I woke up so they can choose it
Why is my solving and theories scum but yours aren’t
I’m drinking beer and playing ace attorney I have basically not posted today irl lol
Why is my solving and theories scum but yours aren’t
I’m drinking beer and playing ace attorney I have basically not posted today irl lol
Also I don’t think I actually downplayed your solving that much, I did point out that the me/Lechen killing Roxie and both claiming TK theory was flawed which you agreed with and then later randomly reverted back to before you agreed with it
I didn’t downplay that Roxie could be mafia and got Ehmcee to confirm the possibility. I even looped that theory into my later solving
So I’m not sure what you’re trying to call out, I take on your valid points and disregard the invalid ones it’s how we solve
I didn’t downplay that Roxie could be mafia and got Ehmcee to confirm the possibility. I even looped that theory into my later solving
So I’m not sure what you’re trying to call out, I take on your valid points and disregard the invalid ones it’s how we solve
Finally, one of the reasons I felt you were likely scum is because of your D1 wagonomics lol. You accuse me of not taking a side that day when I did take sides the whole time, I think I was literally asleep when the Evie wagon materialised (which was therefore after the wagon I started on a fairy had hardcore run its course) and even with that I came into D2 stating I townread Evie
That point about me is actual disinformation because the choice was never provided to me in a conscious state, and you messed up the chronology of the day by stating I started the a fairy wagon to get out of making a read on Evie. There was no read I was ever faced with making on Evie lol
That point about me is actual disinformation because the choice was never provided to me in a conscious state, and you messed up the chronology of the day by stating I started the a fairy wagon to get out of making a read on Evie. There was no read I was ever faced with making on Evie lol
Whereas Joey’s D1 gameplay was refusing to vote until right at the end of the day so that’s actual fence sitting yk
I don’t think it’s THAT scummy (it’s a little bit), but from that gameplay to then say that about my unconscious body is pretty telling lol
I don’t think it’s THAT scummy (it’s a little bit), but from that gameplay to then say that about my unconscious body is pretty telling lol
RE: the lechen kill on joey
in a alice scum world:
in a alice scum world:
- lechen could be lying about being archer and is scum
- or lechen is in fact archer and mafia knew joey would be targeted and double targeted him
- so 50/50
- incredibly unlikely mafia know to double target joey
- so lechen likely lying about being town
- assuming we're in setup 3, there is a mafia killing, mafia support, and mafia deception role left
- the mafia killing roles could not visit joey and since a mafia member killed in the night it must have been mafia support and mafia deception that double targeted, leaving joey as mafia killing
- The mafia support roles that work are consort (? idk if roleblocking stops them from killing, if it does then it cant be this), consigliere, and recon (? idk if this counts as a visit)
- The mafia deception roles that work are disguiser, framer, forger, janitor (? probably doesnt count as a visit if they didnt die), and hypnotist
No it’s good work and it’s helpful, I alluded to it before but it’s nice to see it broke. Dow .
Janitor I’m p sure does just pull off the action, it seems like they prime the target to be cleaned at any time and then if the target dies by any means the janitor learns the role. I worked it out earlier because there is a very clear question of “why have we only had one janitor kill when the janitor has 3 shots”.
I think there are two working theories that come from this.
Theory A) This is likelier to me, which is I think the janitor has been cleaning their own scumbuds, either including Roxie or not. I believe this to be likely due to the inspector claim(s) where mafia had an express interest in ensuring their fakeclaims would match investigator results.
I.E. in worlds where Lechen and Joey are scumbuds together, for example, and Lechen has been channeling results to joey for his fake tracker claim, they’ve likely either cleaned Lechen or both of them. That way, if we vote Lechen out, we don’t immediately realise that joey could’ve easily lied about all his results using Lechen’s information.
That’s the example that springs to mind but it’s not the only one; a consigliere and Alice works for this too, among probably other possibilities.
Theory B) They just haven’t been using it.
This is the town!Lechen universe. We’re on Day 5, the only way the archer shot could be blocked by scum!Alice is if the janitor still had shots to use. I do not consider it likelier than Theory A because it’s better to get mileage out of a role than to not.
This is a lot of what backs Lechen up as scum because the janitor necessarily must have been idling in order for them to block Lechen’s kill, even if Alice is also scum
fwiw i just checked with hyhy but a hypnotist charge only gets spent if the person they cleaned actually died
presumably also meant janitor not hypnotist lmao
that's actually fascinating though I would have never expected that to be the mechanic lol
so they can just clean whoever until 3 roles actually get cleaned on death, wild stuff
Yeah- i had 2.5hrs of sleep last night and only woke up for like 15 min- cut me some slack
Joey: His last pages he seems to be focused on his theories that I honestly not sure of their possibility but I like the intent. This is not alignment indicative for me. On one hand scum does benefit from a confusing thread and this helps achieve that. On the other hand I've seen many townies in danger of being voted out having the best reads/theories because they know their own alignment. This means this slot is probably going to be solved by mechanics. He was supposed to die via either archer kill or veteran kill so no idea what actually happened there.
Celever: He also has his theories but reads as more confident than Joey? Him saying I'm claiming scum based on my post... well I think that looks more towny than scummy, seems like he was sure of his theory about me being a mole and was not happy at all with my answer. The problem is that some things he is calling out Joey for also applies to him so that may be scum theater. This thread looks scum dominated so I'd not be surprised. Mechanically this is one of the worst slots along with Joey and Lechen. Claiming a newbie didn't listen to whatever Hydro told him and that's why he didn't kill is not a good defense.
Lechen: I'm unsure of his thoughts right now because he seemed fine with Celever last night but he is in a 50/50 which is confusing. He is approaching this way less focused on the 50/50 that his counterpart. I'm still trying to understand how his archer failed if he is actually town. I mean if we take celevers defense at face value it could be that townies lied again, please stop if that's the case. No idea why scum would target joey, unsure of their supportive role.
Dead By Daylight: Same as above regarding posting... He is likely town based on being last night target. I mentioned earlier that there is a possibility of mafia self-shooting, that implies that DBD would be suspicious enough to be targeted with a transport, which to be fair I was the one who did the orders and ended up being like that. Prio to being the kill target I'd say he was not in inmediate danger of being voted out so maybe not my best theory. He wasn't particularly trusted either. I'll leave solving this slot for later.
Jalmont: Definitely better posting that during d2. Feels purer than the other active posters, or at least the agenda seems better hidden. I laughed when Hydro messaged me to change the vote to AirC and the reason being Jalmont confusing doctor and bodyguard. I'd say doctor claim is easy to fake as mafia with things like hypnotist existing but I have a hard time considering that mafia as a group didn't manage to claim something in their investigator pool result. Especially when there are 2 investigators and bodyguard is worse claim than doctor. I think this might be the lost townie.
Miyami: Posting has been good it's actually surprising it's her first mafia, looked a bit better in d2 but can't blame her I think most people lost the sauce here. In a world where DBD is town this slot is suspicious based on setup alone. There would be too many investigatives (DBD, Hydro, me, Joey???). She got a wildly convenient result claim as psychic that I think was a bus. Unsure if she would risk getting a townie voted out but Joey was not in inmediate danger at the time so it could be mafia preparing for later, hard to tell. If she is town I would start looking at DBD but not before coming for Joey.
I wish I could for my opinion better I've been making this post for quite a while. I just feel mentally blocked
. I'm unsure if to propose a vote because I feel like I'm trying to shoot at something I have good odds at hitting but my luck has not been the best lately... hopefully that doesn't also applies to this game. I have no idea about what the confirmed townies are thinking.
Celever: He also has his theories but reads as more confident than Joey? Him saying I'm claiming scum based on my post... well I think that looks more towny than scummy, seems like he was sure of his theory about me being a mole and was not happy at all with my answer. The problem is that some things he is calling out Joey for also applies to him so that may be scum theater. This thread looks scum dominated so I'd not be surprised. Mechanically this is one of the worst slots along with Joey and Lechen. Claiming a newbie didn't listen to whatever Hydro told him and that's why he didn't kill is not a good defense.
Lechen: I'm unsure of his thoughts right now because he seemed fine with Celever last night but he is in a 50/50 which is confusing. He is approaching this way less focused on the 50/50 that his counterpart. I'm still trying to understand how his archer failed if he is actually town. I mean if we take celevers defense at face value it could be that townies lied again, please stop if that's the case. No idea why scum would target joey, unsure of their supportive role.
Dead By Daylight: Same as above regarding posting... He is likely town based on being last night target. I mentioned earlier that there is a possibility of mafia self-shooting, that implies that DBD would be suspicious enough to be targeted with a transport, which to be fair I was the one who did the orders and ended up being like that. Prio to being the kill target I'd say he was not in inmediate danger of being voted out so maybe not my best theory. He wasn't particularly trusted either. I'll leave solving this slot for later.
Jalmont: Definitely better posting that during d2. Feels purer than the other active posters, or at least the agenda seems better hidden. I laughed when Hydro messaged me to change the vote to AirC and the reason being Jalmont confusing doctor and bodyguard. I'd say doctor claim is easy to fake as mafia with things like hypnotist existing but I have a hard time considering that mafia as a group didn't manage to claim something in their investigator pool result. Especially when there are 2 investigators and bodyguard is worse claim than doctor. I think this might be the lost townie.
Miyami: Posting has been good it's actually surprising it's her first mafia, looked a bit better in d2 but can't blame her I think most people lost the sauce here. In a world where DBD is town this slot is suspicious based on setup alone. There would be too many investigatives (DBD, Hydro, me, Joey???). She got a wildly convenient result claim as psychic that I think was a bus. Unsure if she would risk getting a townie voted out but Joey was not in inmediate danger at the time so it could be mafia preparing for later, hard to tell. If she is town I would start looking at DBD but not before coming for Joey.
I wish I could for my opinion better I've been making this post for quite a while. I just feel mentally blocked
. I'm unsure if to propose a vote because I feel like I'm trying to shoot at something I have good odds at hitting but my luck has not been the best lately... hopefully that doesn't also applies to this game. I have no idea about what the confirmed townies are thinking.
How does the extension thing work, I want to sleep as well.