UU UnderUsed Majors VI - Stage 2 Playoffs [Won by Pokemonisfun]

Estarossa

Estarossa

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pokemonisfun

Banned deucer.
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Analysis of Axelsior vs Amukamara (aka Liam) in stage 2, round 1 of UU majors

Disclaimer this is just for fun, both players are great, I don't have their teams, sorry for bringing this up as both players are out of majors now, but I did find this game to be among the best in round 1.

On preview it's not really clear who has a match up advantage, particularly as the teams are so similar with three Pokemon being exactly the same (Amoonguss+Thundurus+Conkeldurr) and the other three sharing similar typings, with the only major difference is that Liam has a Fairy type and Axelsior has a Steel type. One potentially important point though is that Axelsior's Conkeldurr is *probably* more deadly than Liam's because Axelsior can spam Facade rather freely vs several Pokemon and Liam's Hydreigon is *definitely* more dangerous than Axelsior's Krookodile because Axelsio has no Fairy. Regardless, it's going to be a very typical bulky offense game - tense dancing around with huge threats and both sides trying to get a decisive breakthrough with an offensive. Super exciting stuff in my view that allows for extremely high level play and neither player disappoints.


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Things do not start off well for Liam. He finds out quickly that his team has no good Amoonguss response and he ends up using most of his Conkeldurr's bulk to force out the Amoonguss instead of giving up most of his Amoonguss' health to do the same thing. I'm not exactly sure what I'd recommend to do for Liam but at least this highlights one metagame points; grasses can be very anoying if you don't have Steel Pokemon and in particular that they can use Sludge Bomb/Toxic make it even more annoying. Liam's only Toxic immunity can't really beat most Toxic users and it can't easily beat the opposing Amoonguss either.


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After Axelsior gets that early advantage with Amoonguss, he seems to give up all the ground he made and more. For example, he could have used Spikes if he had it on Skarmory on turn 6, particularly as Liam went to a more passive Togekiss instead of a more attacking Thundurus that turn, and on turn 7, Axelsior had the option to go Thundurus to exert serious pressure - Liam had no way to know Axelsior's Thundurus' didn't have Focus Blast yet. Staying in with Slowking for the majority of these turns let Liam set up rocks and get Hydreigoon in again, as well as cripple the Slowking. Axelsior does make a bit of progress vs Swampert but even that's mainly due to Scald burns only, and it's pretty clear that Liam is the one pressing after this sequence, which culminates in Hydreigon attacking again and Axelsior being forced to switch in a Toxiced Slowking to counter Hydreigon.

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So after Liam's "second" offensive (the first was Conkeldurr, the second was Hydreigon), Axelsior starts to play more actively and does a double to Thundurus on Togekiss but that doesn't do much as Liam goes to Hydreigon and they basically repeat the position, which lets Liam get more damage on Slowking. Axelsior tries and fails to heal Skarmory (presumably healing) on the Togekiss which lets Liam push his advantage even more by spamming Air Slash which nobody on Axelsior's team really wants to take. You could consider, at least in retrospect, the Wish on turn 24 an error. Liam could have just went Swampert or Hydreigon immediately instead of letting Togekiss take a Tbolt, which put it in Conkeldurr range easily. The Wish ended up being useless as Thundurus still OHKOd Swampert - this isn't something you can really fault Liam for, Axelsior's team looked too weak to Hydreigon to not use Focus Blast, but the earlier Wish means both Togekiss is low and Swampert is gone, making Conkeldurr an even bigger threat now.


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So Axelsior does get the KO on Swampert but that opens him up to Hydreigon again - however, Axelsior rightly notices that whenever Hydreigon KOs something (like the weak Skarmory) on turn 27, the next turn, Axelsior's own Conkeldurr gets an opening to basically get a free KO because Togekiss is too low to switch in (actually, it could have switched in on turn 28 as it took a no Guts Knock Off + Guts Mach Punch so maybe this was an option for Liam - it was very unlikely Conkeldurr would click Facade before Flame Orb Activated).

Axelsior smartly remembers the pattern of Conkeldurr getting KOs when it comes in for free when doing the Krookodile vs Amoonguss sequence and decides to let Krookodile die so Conkeldurr gets another free KO. Perhaps he should have set up Rocks if he had them to help get Hydreigon in Mach Punch range though, as Mach Punch only does 84% max to Hydreigon. Nevertheless, Conkeldurr claims another KO on turn 34 (these type of games make me think Conkeldurr is broken, but I digress, that's for another thread: post opinions on tiering action here: https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/np-ss-uu-stage-10-airplanes-latias-retest.3691692/)

Despite Conkeldurr doing great work - Liam still has a clear win path - sweep with Thundurus and use his own Hydreigon to beat opposing Thundurus.

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The position is really clarifying- this often happens in games vs good players at the end - Liam' remaining big threats are Hydreigon and Thundurus and those are the guys he has perfectly preserved. Basically all of these turns are now tense predictions and Liam gets a lot of them right, getting his Thundy safely vs his opponent's Thundy for example on turn 36. Where he messes up, it's pretty minor, the Psychic on Slowking switch in didn't hurt too much for example on turn 37. Getting Hydreigon in on a Psychic on turn 42 was actually somewhat important as a Thunderbolt could have put Hydreigon in Mach Punch range.

So because of Liam's relatively good play, he's rewarded with a KO of Slowking but that of course puts us in the same pattern - what to do about Conkeldurr when it shows up on the end of turn 43 (Amoonguss here was another option that I'd be interested if Axelsior considered as it could spore Hydreigon still, but Conkeldurr seemed right as Conkeldurr wasn't otherwise coming in).

The real question of course is on turn 43 and 44, was it better to just sacrifice Hydreigon? In other words, did Liam have a 100% or at least a certain win path (no prediction needed but not 100%) if he stayed in with Hydreigon? I think he did not. Axelsior's Amoonguss was at 100% because of Regenerator, 88% with Stealth Rocks, and so always tanked a Psychic from Liam's Psychic. If Hydreigon died to Mach on turn 44, Liam would likely send out Thundurus and spam Psychic to KO Conk after getting chipped ~26% on average by Mach Punch which is exactly putting it in range of 2HKO by Amoonguss Sludge Bomb, that does 37% on average.

So after Liam kills the Conkeldurr, Amonguss comes in and can either Spore (predicting Psychic), Sludge Bomb (predicting Volt) or go to Thundurus (predicting Volt). Sludge Bomb on this hypothetical turn 45 probably gave the best chances for at least a 50/50 as it would put Liam's Thundurus in Psychic range, making it at least a 50-50. If Togekiss came in (hard or via Volt switch) on hypothetical turn 45, then it would obviously take the hit and there's no clear way (for either side) to have a prediction free victory).

This analysis isn't close to complete but at the very least it shows there was no prediction free victory for either side if Liam stayed in with Hydreigon on Conkeldurr on turn 44, so switching to Togekiss wasn't a bad play, and that Axelsior clicked Facade instead of Mach Punch was pretty exceptional as well.

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The game actually isn't over still even though Axelsior continues to play well sand saves Conkeldurr. Amoonguss can finally pop the Spore and Liam's Thundurus on turn 47 has to switch into Amoonguss in order to keep Hydreigon alive to keep Sleep Clause up. Actually, he maybe had another option.

Liam could have let Hydreigon die and just Psychic the hypothetical turn 48, as Axelsior surely Spores. Liam then has to hope for either a 1 turn wake which guarantees victory - Thundurus will 2HKO Amoonguss and not be in Conkeldurr Mach Punch range or hope for a 2 turn sleep and good damage rolls, as noted earlier, Amoonguss does 37% to Thundurus on average with Sludge Bomb and Conkeldurr does 26% - so two Sludge Bombs and a Mach Punch should KO Thundurus on average, but low rolls could have let Liam win even with a 2 turn sleep.

The way Liam played, saving Hydreigon, he had to hope for the same low rolls AND not get Poisoned twice, which lowered his odds of winning.

So yes, the critical hit did matter but at this point, Axelsior was already favored - he either needed average or higher rolls OR one Sludge Bomb poisoning.


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Overall, a really excellent game by both players, that showed a lot of talent by both, definitely as fun as to analyze this as any of the SCL games I have went over. Liam showed a lot of finesses by playing around Thundurus very well at most stages of the game and Axelsior showed very ballsy predictions on turn 43 and 44 which paid off for him to have a favored ending. I'm sorry that neither of these players are still in but hopefully we can see more from them in UUSD.

I also hope they can comment (or anyone else) if they think my analysis is mistaken, which is might be.
 

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Mr.Bossaru

Mr.Bossaru

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Estarossa

Estarossa

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Round 3

Moutemoute  vs  Luirromen
xujing691691  vs  Harshal_08
pokemonisfun  vs  BigFatMantis
ProDigeZz  vs  Bye 1
Mimilucha  vs  Meru
KM  vs  IPF

Mr.Bossaru was replaced with a Bye for Round 3 due to getting banned after his series. Dj and Meru are scheduled to play later but I wanted to get this round out ASAP before I go to bed as I've got uni in the morning, so no extension should be needed there.

Round 3 deadline is Sunday 7th November at 11:59pm GMT-4.
 
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