We are already in the last week of the regular season.
Every team can still dream to reach playoffs. Of course, some odds are more likely than others. The only thing which is confirmed is that Aesthetic Articunos are already guaranteed to be in PO but not necessary first seed. Lets make quick odds on how likely teams can reach playoffs or first seed for AA.
Aesthetic Articunos (Managers : Jamez, Temporal Totodile)
Current seed : 1
Points : 7
Battle differential : +10
Team faced this week : Zweilous
Aesthetic Articunos are guaranteed to make playoffs with 7 points. Congratulations to them! Even if they lose this week and We Sawk and the third seed manage to win their game, they would be above the third seed in terms of points. However first seed is not a certainty yet even if it is very probable.
We Sawk is the only team which is able to reach them but even when betting on a AA lost and a getting a win themselves, they would tie in terms of points. In that case, the battle differential will matter and with a BD of 0 for We Sawk, they need a stomp in one of the confrontations (probably both) to make it happen. The table below summarized each scenario what would lead to this result if every game is played this week. If the BD points are the same, Aesthetic Articuno and We Sawk will have to fight in a bo3 to determine the winner. If Aesthetic Articunos want to be first seed without looking at We Sawk results, they need to at least tie at 4-4. However, even if in losing, they still have a really good shot to stay first.
| Aesthetic Articuno (BD Tie) | We Sawk (BD Tie) | Aesthetic Articuno (WS victory) | We Sawk (WS Victory) |
|---|
| 0-8 (L) | 5-3 (W) | 0-8 (L) | 6-2 / 7-1 / 8-0 (W) |
| 1-7 (L) | 6-2 (W) | 1-7 / 0-8 (L) | 7-1 / 8-0 (W) |
| 2-6 (L) | 7-1 (W) | 2-6 / 1-7 / 0-8 (L) | 8-0 (W) |
| 3-5 (L) | 8-0 (W) | | |
We Sawk! (Managers : Ho3nConfirm3d, Boat)
Current seed : 2
Points : 5
Battle Differential : 0
Team faced this week : Lunala
We Sawk! has had a great run up till now but unfortunately their place in playoff is not guaranteed yet. What is especially interesting and close in these playoffs is than the 2nd, the 3rd and the 4th seed don't face each other during this week, which makes the second and the third place quite dependant on the results of other matchups. Every team can choke a week, it won't be the first time that we see that happen.
Anyway, if We Sawk want to get a guaranteed place in playoffs regardless of the results of the other teams, they need to win. In the event of a victory, they would reach 7 points, which is unreachable for Gliding Grookey and the Zealous Zweilous, who are currently third and fourth respectively.
A tie would already be more problematic. With 6 points and a Battle Differential of 0, in this scenario, they could tie in terms of points with Grookey & Zweilous who currently both have 4 points and who could reach potentially 6 points if they win. If Gliding Grookey wins the week when We Sawk Tie, Grookey would automatically become second seed per BD. With a BD of -2, winning 5-3 for Zealous Zweilous would perfectly tie Sawk, both in Points and BD. In that case a Bo3 will be organized. If they win more than 5-3, We Sawk could be immediately knocked out despite a tie.
A loss for We Sawk! would mean that Grookey/Zweilous would directly qualified if they both win their confrontation. It would also mean that Grookey doesn't even need to win, a tie would be enough.
Are these scenarios likely though? Not really, though, just possible. The thing is :
- if either Grookey or Zweilous lose they week, We Sawk is qualified.
- We Sawk has to face Lunala, currently the last place team in the standings (They lose 2 versus, they tied two others).
- Zweilous also have to win versus Articuno this week who have never lose a versus until now.
Betting on a We Sawk lost into a Zweilous win is therefore not the most probable scenario. This means We Sawk has a good chances to make playoffs, even though probably not in first seed.
Gliding Grookey (Managers : Quantum Tesseract, Catalystic)
Current seed : 3
Points : 4
Battle Differential : +2
Team faced this week : Mankey
Contrary to our two previous teams, this week is decisive for Gliding Grookey if they want to reach their qualification in playoffs. I'm sure they will propose really interesting and competitive builds for this week of competition. They have nevertheless a little advantage with a better battle differential than the current second and fourth seeds.
If Gliding Grookey wins the week, they are almost guaranteed to qualify for the playoffs. Theoretically there is a scenario where they win 5-3 and Zweilous wins 8-0 against Articunos where they are not qualified if We Sawk also wins but this scenario is so unlikely that it's not necessary to comment on it any more. Zweilous winning 7-1 is a little bit more probable but in this case, they would tie and a Bo3 will be organised.
If they tie, it depends on what the other teams do honestly. With 5 points, they can be qualified if We Sawk loses the week since they would tie and their battle differential is less important. If Zweilous loses or ties the week against Articunos, they are also qualified. However, if We Sawk wins and Zweilous as well, a tie would lead to their elimination.
If they lose, they have to pray on a Zweilous loss to hope to be still qualified. However, even if Zweilous lost, they can still be eliminated if Mankey beat them at least 6-2. It means that every battle in this confrontation will have a huge impact. I'm looking forward to seeing this monkeys battle.
Zealous Zweilous (Managers : zio, Landon)
Current seed : 4
Points : 4
Battle Differential: -2
Team faced this week : Articuno
Zealous Zweilous can still do it with a good preparation against Articuno. However, their low battle differential score makes that they don't have other choices to rely on the victory and on the Gliding Grookey, and maybe also We Sawk, being defeated.
Zealous Zweilous cannot lose this week. If they lose, their battle differential will crush them to at least -3 if there is a dead game, stuck with 4 global points. At this point, both Articuno and We Sawk would be qualified, regardless of the result. To get the third place, they would need a scenario impossible where Gliding Grookey are stomped 1-7 to be higher than them in their battle differential ratio. However, Grookey being stomped 1-7 means that Monkey will be at 4 global points (they would tie with Zweilous Zealous!) and with a battle differential of +2, which means that they would end up in third place. If Zealous Zweilous lose this week, they would therefore be eliminated.
Can they tie though? Yes they can. It's risky though, because with 5 points, they will have to rely on a Grookey loss against the Mankey. If Grookey tie, the Zweilous battle differential will once again play against them and they would be eliminated. If they tie, Grookey needs to lose.
If they win, they have to bet on a loss/tie of Gliding Grookey or on a choke from We Sawk against Lunala or both. They can still theoretically make playoffs if both Sawk & Grookey win by stomping Articunos 8-0 & if Gliding grookey can only win 5-3 respectively but this scenario is realistically unlikely to happen. A 7-1 Zweilous 5-3 Grookey would make them tying.
Mankey Monkes (Managers : Skysolo, Marjane)
Current seed : 5
Points : 2
Battle Differential: -4
Team faced this week : Grookey
Odds start to become weaker and weaker but there is still a scenario not too farfetched where Mankey Monkes can reach playoff. However, losing and tying are not valid options. They first absolutely need to win. Second, Aesthetic Articuno need to beat Zweilous Zealous.
In this situation, Aesthetic Articuno and We Sawk are already qualified. Zweilous Zealous are already eliminated since their battle differential will be either lower than the one of Grookey or than the one of Mankey. The question would be in this case how much do they need to win versus Grookey. With 4 global points each, they would tie and therefore the Battle Differential will matter. Since Grookey has +2 in BD and Mankey -4, they need to win at least 6-2. In that case, BD of Grookey would be at -2 and Mankey would be at 0 and therefore they would be in theory the third seed.
In theory because they still have to watch the result of Lunala. If for some reason, they win 7-1 against Sawk, Lunalas could be third seed.
Star Road Lunala (Managers : Dragonillis, LBDC)
Current seed : 6
Points : 2
Battle Differential: -6
Team faced this week : We Sawk
The scenario to have Star Road Lunala in playoffs is, I will be honest, really unlikely. However, perfect comebacks exist and I know Dragonillis is manager of this team and with him, every odd is possible. Flinch three times in a row? He will try. Freeze half of the opposite team? It wouldn't be the first nor the last time he manages to do that. So with this mind, here is what Lunala needs to accomplish to be in play-off:
- Beating We Sawk at least 7-1
- Aesthetic Articunos wins against Zealous Zweilous
- Mankey Monkes wins versus Gliding Grookey 6-2.
- If Mankey monkes wins with 7-1, Lunala needs to 8-0 against We Sawk.
In that case, Gliding Grookey, Zealous Zweilous, Mankey monkes, Lunala will both have 4 points. Both Grookey and Zweilous will be have negative BDs, when Monkey and Lunala would be at either 0 or 2 BD. It would end in an extension with a BO3 between two teams. I will be honest, if Lunala managed to reach playoffs, I will create a role Odd legend to every member of Lunala.
~~~
I hope to see really good battles this week. Good luck everyone ~
And I used a lot of numbers here, I may have messed up somewhere, I'm still only human, who knows. If you see any mistakes, let me know.
