-
Check out the relaunch of our general collection, with classic designs and new ones by our very own Pissog!
-
Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
Viva la Mafia - Game Over. Corleone Family wins!
- Thread starter Jackal
- Start date
good luck everyone, I am currently working on a pm to send to one of the people in this thread but I'm not saying who ;)
Oh I'm sorry grandfather cookie :(
Hi. I'm a Freelancer with an alliance checking role. Serendipitously, I checked Virgin Killer last night (for some reason his name was out of place on the list of recipients of the PM we all seem to have received) - and he's a Freelancer. "Holy Fuck" looks to be a good lynch target.
ok i'll post here what i said in #havana
atm we have four roughly equal factions, and to me it makes the most sense if three factions gang up on one to eliminate it as soon as possible, while those three 'landgrab' all the freelancers they can. Once that faction is gone, then the game will change.
Right now as a freelancer I have no reason not to lynch a member of a faction. By lynching a faction member that faction will be weakened compared to the other three, and although it may be a faction that recruited the most members last night, I will disregard this possibility on the basis that I have no way of confirming or disproving this. I will also assume that after the lynch is over that all four factions will try to deny that they are that faction, and that I have a 3/4 chance of joining a faction that hasn't been weakened by this lynch. Therefore, any freelancer is more likely to benefit from lynching a faction than lynching anyone else. As a faction, there's similarly a 3/4 chance whoever gets lynched isn't from my team, benefiting me.
Lynching a neutral benefits everyone equally, so it doesn't offer an advantage to anyone in particular, and lynching a freelancer confers a minimal advantage to whoever acquired the most freelancers tonight.
In short: lynch the strongest faction member possible to maximise the benefits if you're a freelancer, and in this case Holy Fuck appears to be a decent candidate for such.
EDIT: For anyone worried about being singled out as a particular alliance because of voting according to my logic, the only thing such a vote says about your alliance is that you're not with the votee, since freelancers and other factions alike have good reason to follow this lynch.
EDIT2: my initial statistical analysis of this scenario was possibly flawed and, looking at the first lynch, doesn't matter since everyone's too scared to vote.
atm we have four roughly equal factions, and to me it makes the most sense if three factions gang up on one to eliminate it as soon as possible, while those three 'landgrab' all the freelancers they can. Once that faction is gone, then the game will change.
Right now as a freelancer I have no reason not to lynch a member of a faction. By lynching a faction member that faction will be weakened compared to the other three, and although it may be a faction that recruited the most members last night, I will disregard this possibility on the basis that I have no way of confirming or disproving this. I will also assume that after the lynch is over that all four factions will try to deny that they are that faction, and that I have a 3/4 chance of joining a faction that hasn't been weakened by this lynch. Therefore, any freelancer is more likely to benefit from lynching a faction than lynching anyone else. As a faction, there's similarly a 3/4 chance whoever gets lynched isn't from my team, benefiting me.
Lynching a neutral benefits everyone equally, so it doesn't offer an advantage to anyone in particular, and lynching a freelancer confers a minimal advantage to whoever acquired the most freelancers tonight.
In short: lynch the strongest faction member possible to maximise the benefits if you're a freelancer, and in this case Holy Fuck appears to be a decent candidate for such.
EDIT: For anyone worried about being singled out as a particular alliance because of voting according to my logic, the only thing such a vote says about your alliance is that you're not with the votee, since freelancers and other factions alike have good reason to follow this lynch.
EDIT2: my initial statistical analysis of this scenario was possibly flawed and, looking at the first lynch, doesn't matter since everyone's too scared to vote.
