OU What Are The Odds: Gengar vs Jynx.

[Disaster Area]

The matchup between this pair of leads has been discussed quite a lot lately, and I figured it'd be a good idea to work out the odds. I'll look at 2 scenarios, in both cases assuming that the Gengar player's strategy is not to Explode turn 1. I'm also going to ignore 255s since in this scenario they should be fairly negligible (at worst impacting the 3rd significant figure).

Jynx tries to only Lovely Kiss Gengar:
Chance of Gengar successfully Sleeping Jynx without it waking up: 153/256*6/7=~18/35 =0.51..
Chance of Jynx successfully sleeping Gengar: 191/256*0.4=~3/10 = 0.3
Chance of nothing happening=13/70=0.1857..
Thus, the overall chances of:
Gengar victorious: ~12/19 = 63.1% (3 s.f.)
Jynx victorious: ~7/19 = 36.9% (3 s.f)

Jynx tries to KO Gengar with Psychic.
Jynx Psychic vs. Gengar: 159-188 (49.2 - 58.2%) -- 98.8% chance to 2HKO [becomes ~99.2% factoring in the possibility of a Spec drop, then ~99.3% when factoring in chance of a critical hit on the second hit]
Jynx Psychic vs. Gengar on a critical hit: 308-362 (95.3 - 112%) -- 71.8% chance to OHKO
We are going to work with the assumption that Gengar goes for Hypnosis at every opportunity.
T1 Jynx Asleep + Does not wake up: 459/896
T1 nothing happens: 153/1792
T1 Jynx does not Sleep: 103/256
-- Ignore the T1 does not happen by multiplying the other figures by 1792/1639 --
T1 Jynx Asleep | Gengar victorious: 918/1639
T1 Jynx not Asleep: 721/1639
-- Investigating the probabilities when Jynx does not fall asleep --
T1 Jynx Awake - Psychic critical hits and Gengar is KO'd | Jynx victorious : 0.718 * 721/1639 * 95/512 = 0.0586..
T1 Jynx Awake - Psychic critical hits and Gengar is not KO'd | Mark with x : (1 - 0.718) * 721/1639 * 95/512 = 0.0230..
T1 Jynx Awake - Psychic does not critical hit | Mark with y : 721/1639 * 417/512 = 0.3583..
-- Investigating x --
T2 Jynx Asleep | Gengar victorious: 918/1639 * P(X=x) = 0.0129..
T2 Jynx Awake and Gengar is KO'd | Jynx victorious: 721/1639 * P(X=x) = 0.0101..
-- Investigating y --
T2 Jynx Asleep | Gengar victorious: P(X=y) * 918/1639 = 0.2007..
T2 Jynx Awake and Gengar is KO'd | Jynx victorious: P(X=y) * 721/1639 * 0.993.. = 0.1565..
T2 Jynx Awake and Gengar is not KO'd | Go to Turn 3: P(X=y) * 721/1639 * 0.007.. = 0.0011
T3 Jynx Asleep | Gengar victorious: 0.0006..
T3 Jynx Awake and Gengar is KO'd | Jynx victorious: 0.0005..
Overall:
Gengar victorious: 77.4%
Jynx victorious: 22.6%

 

[WAZZUPYOSHI]

The poison types prevail...finally!

 

[froggy25]

63.05%
36.95%

The small difference is because you didn't use the exact hit % (153/256 for Hypnosis, 191/256 for Lovely Kiss).

 

[Disaster Area]

At least either way it's accurate to 2 s.f. and the minor diff isn't too huge of a deal. =]

 

[finally]

math :>

 

[Disaster Area]

:>>>>>>

 

[Disaster Area]

Time to do it with Egg, with its higher Special but lower critical hit rate!

Exeggutor tries to only Sleep Powder Gengar:
Chance of Gengar successfully sleeping Exeggutor without it waking up: 153/256*6/7=~18/35 =0.51..
Chance of Exeggutor successfully sleeping Gengar: 191/256*0.4=~3/10 = 0.3
Chance of nothing happening=13/70=0.1857..
Thus, the overall chances of:
Gengar victorious: ~12/19 = 63.1% (3 s.f.)
Exeggutor victorious: ~7/19 = 36.9% (3 s.f)

Exeggutor tries to KO Gengar with Psychic.
Exeggutor Psychic vs. Gengar: 190-224 (58.8 - 69.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Exeggutor Psychic vs. Gengar on a critical hit: 372-438 (115.1 - 135.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
We are going to work with the assumption that Gengar goes for Hypnosis at every opportunity.
T1 Exeggutor Asleep + Does not wake up: 459/896
T1 nothing happens: 153/1792
T1 Exeggutor does not Sleep: 103/256
-- Ignore the T1 does not happen by multiplying the other figures by 1792/1639 --
T1 Exeggutor Asleep | Gengar victorious: 918/1639
T1 Exeggutor not Asleep: 721/1639
-- Investigating the probabilities when Exeggutor does not fall asleep --
T1 Exeggutor Awake - Psychic critical hits and Gengar is KO'd | Exeggutor victorious : 721/1639 * 55/512 = 3605/76288 (=0.047255..)
T1 Exeggutor Awake - Psychic does not critical hit | Mark with x : 721/1639 * 457/512 = 0.39265..
-- Investigating x --
T2 Exeggutor Asleep | Gengar victorious: P(X=x) * 918/1639 = 0.2199..
T2 Exeggutor Awake and Gengar is KO'd | Exeggutor victorious: P(X=x) * 721/1639 = 0.1727..
Overall:
Gengar victorious: 78.002..%
Exeggutor victorious: 21.998..%

Otherwise, well approximated by 78% and 22% respectively.

 

[Disaster Area]

froggy25 I updated the Jynx calcs with the second scenario, with the correct accuracies, and it puts it about another 0.3% chance in favour of Gengar. I also did Exeggutor's calcs! :D

 

[McMeghan]

What's the point of this thread?
Don't wanna sound rude, but if you make it public like you did by posting in RoA, at least make it understandable/readable. I'm pretty sure almost everyone didn't even bother with the current presentation.
If this was only for self-keeping, I wouldn't mind, but since it's public, please do a little effort!

 

[Disaster Area]

Well, lead matchups are something pretty guarantee'd in RBY, there's a very small pool of leads, so understanding the exact probabilities of different scenarios is what makes it useful. I mean, just having the information available allows a player to make better choices.

The main information piece, if you want to ignore the calculations, is where it says at the bottom of each section:
Overall:
Gengar victorious: x%
Other mon victorious: y%

 

[Raish]

I actually found this pretty readable! He comments on what every line means so that you can get the data for each part of it and check his work if you want to. The only thing missing in terms of readability (which I probably didn't notice as a stats minor) would be showing the calculation of how the various chances come together to give that final result with good commenting of the calculation, but that would be as much work as the rest of the article put together so I can understand its exclusion.

 

[WAZZUPYOSHI]

Not bad. i knew Gengar was good, but I didn't think it was that good!

 

[Borat]

what the shits is this?

so gengar is "victorious" in the event he successfully lands a 2+ turn sleep? and jynx is "victorious" in the event she kills gengar? have i been gone so long that the word "victory" has different meaning?

 

[WAZZUPYOSHI]

maybe

 

[Disaster Area]

what the shits is this?

so gengar is "victorious" in the event he successfully lands a 2+ turn sleep? and jynx is "victorious" in the event she kills gengar? have i been gone so long that the word "victory" has different meaning?

I'm using victorious in the sense that it achieves what using that particular move sets out to achieve, i.e. Hypnosis Gengar is considered 'victorious' if it successfully sleeps the target, whilst Exeggutor and Jynx are 'victorious' when they either KO or Sleep Gengar. It's nothing more deep and meaningful than that, it was just my way of saying that the Pokemon had achieved what it set out to, and 'wins' the lead match-up.

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/victorious
2. of, relating to, or characterized by victory.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/victory
4. a success or superior position achieved against any opponent, opposition, difficulty, etc.:

 

[Borat]

i dont play much rby, but jynx attacking is absolutely the right move in this scenario. is gengar using hypnosis and risking an ohko even at all correct? for sleeping a jynx? who gets switches on chansey/zam/egg anyway?

 

[Disaster Area]

i dont play much rby, but jynx attacking is absolutely the right move in this scenario. is gengar using hypnosis and risking an ohko even at all correct? for sleeping a jynx? who gets switches on chansey/zam/egg anyway?

Well Jynx can go for an attack or it can go to sleep it. If it goes to sleep it it has a higher odd of doing one of either sleeping or KOing gar, than if it goes for spamming Psychic.

This is the only matchup gengar is even purported to win.

Pokemon is very much about risk vs reward, and these calculations here serve to inform those decisions when teambuilding and battling.

If you would like to learn more about RBY leads, read my smog article here: http://www.smogon.com/smog/issue39/leads-rby

 

[Borat]

yes but sleeping the gengar does what? gengar is the best sleeping pokemon in rby. there's no way jynx lk-ing a gengar is the right move, unless you're predicting gengar to switch out.

 

[BCE]

Jynx Psychic vs. Gengar: 159-188 (49.2 - 58.2%) -- 98.8% chance to 2HKO

why this low damage ? gen 1 psychic was not effective against poison ?

 

[WAZZUPYOSHI]

naw, gengar just got a real high special, 130 I believe. Jynx only has 95 special too, so...

 

[Disaster Area]

yes but sleeping the gengar does what? gengar is the best sleeping pokemon in rby. there's no way jynx lk-ing a gengar is the right move, unless you're predicting gengar to switch out.

Sleeping Gengar still puts you effectively 6-5. As I said, it's to allow the player to make a more informed decision whilst teambuilding/battling. I don't care if you think it's always wrong to try and send Gengar to sleep, it's still an option, and one that is more likely to be achieved than outright KOing it, therefore it is possible that a player may want to do it in battle. I don't care if you think it's bad, I'm not telling players what to, I am just giving them information with which to make decisions.

 

[Ortheore]

Jynx Psychic vs. Gengar: 159-188 (49.2 - 58.2%) -- 98.8% chance to 2HKO

why this low damage ? gen 1 psychic was not effective against poison ?

Psychic has always been effective against Poison. However in gen 1 SpA/SpD were combined into a single stat, which meant Jynx happened to have just 95 base special, whereas Gengar had 130. Consequently Gengar takes a much smaller amount of damage than you might expect.

As for Gengar staying in and sleeping Jynx, that's definitely the correct play in my eyes. The downsides of sleeping Jynx is that it can block Egg's explosion and potentially wake up on Chansey/Egg/Zam. On the other hand it's a Tauros/Lax punching bag, which makes actually attempting to wake up a high-risk endeavour. Putting off sleep means leaving a fresh Jynx in to spam Blizzard and you're either putting off para as well or you're throwing early para which makes it more difficult to sleep something. That's not worth switching out of a matchup that you're more likely to win anyway.

I don't think LKing Gar is a bad play exactly, since getting sleep off on anything is always good, but I can agree that going for the KO is generally better

 

[Borat]

i said nothing about gengar staying in. i'm only saying lk-ing is the wrong move for jynx unless you expect gengar to switch.

i'm all for facts, but i'm just pointing out there's a clear better play here imo. facts still relevant, but the jynx should definitely be attacking.

 

[Disaster Area]

If you attack you have a greater opportunity of Jynx getting slept, which is another downside. I think most of us would still Psychic with Jynx in the secnario, but it's important to know the odds. Plus, sometimes newer players might use Lovely Kiss versus a Gengar lead against you, so understanding the odds there is important too !

There's good and bad to both, all i'm doing is giving the info lol. You don't even play this tier to that high a level, I'd rather you stop trying to dictate right from wrong when I'm not suggesting either way anyway!

 

[Borat]

"that high a level"? ouch. and what level is that? there's no need to turn this into a pissing contest if you're half-agreeing with me anyway.