NOC Why Is There A Gun In My Popcorn? 2: Old Country Boogaloo [GAME OVER Town Wins]

Okay, to make sure I have everyone:
Flyhn Duskfall98 Samoyed Fenrir Aesir #MAGiCVLGiRL_TRVP_B3VTZ Cancerous WaterLily3 Texas Cloverleaf

I removed the highlight on Flyhn because of pose 1,124. Including him below though in the questions for completeness.

Gunbearer here:
Dusk, Flyhn, Sam:
Congratulations on being on my dont-shoot list.
1) Who should I shoot, and why?
2) Is there someone in this trio that I should remove from my don't-shoot list, and why?
3) Is there someone I should ADD and why?
4) If I'm right about the four of you, I have 2/5 to hit scum, 2/5 to hit VENGEFUL scum, and 1/5 to hit village. Any thoughts on the Vengefuls?

Magic, Cancerous, WaterLily:
1) Why should I not shoot you?
2) Who should I shoot instead?
3) Can you make a compelling case to remove someone from my lock-town?
4) If so, who should I replace them with? If not, can you make a case for me to add someone?

Fenrir:
Same questions as Magic, Cancerous, and WaterLily but here's another:
5) Why should I not get rid of an idler now to make sure the mafia don't wreck us by handing you the gun when I finally hit a Vengeful?

Texas:
Same questions as Magic, Cancerous, and WaterLily but here's another:
5) You went after me for quite a bit there. Is there a reason I should remove you from my high priority list?
 
Okay, to make sure I have everyone:
Flyhn Duskfall98 Samoyed Fenrir Aesir #MAGiCVLGiRL_TRVP_B3VTZ Cancerous WaterLily3 Texas Cloverleaf

I removed the highlight on Flyhn because of pose 1,124. Including him below though in the questions for completeness.

Gunbearer here:
Dusk, Flyhn, Sam:
Congratulations on being on my dont-shoot list.
1) Who should I shoot, and why?
2) Is there someone in this trio that I should remove from my don't-shoot list, and why?
3) Is there someone I should ADD and why?
4) If I'm right about the four of you, I have 2/5 to hit scum, 2/5 to hit VENGEFUL scum, and 1/5 to hit village. Any thoughts on the Vengefuls?

Magic, Cancerous, WaterLily:
1) Why should I not shoot you?
2) Who should I shoot instead?
3) Can you make a compelling case to remove someone from my lock-town?
4) If so, who should I replace them with? If not, can you make a case for me to add someone?

Fenrir:
Same questions as Magic, Cancerous, and WaterLily but here's another:
5) Why should I not get rid of an idler now to make sure the mafia don't wreck us by handing you the gun when I finally hit a Vengeful?

Texas:
Same questions as Magic, Cancerous, and WaterLily but here's another:
5) You went after me for quite a bit there. Is there a reason I should remove you from my high priority list?
good post will answer late I m in car
 

Flyhn

Mafia Champion
1) Who should I shoot, and why?
2) Is there someone in this trio that I should remove from my don't-shoot list, and why?
3) Is there someone I should ADD and why?
4) If I'm right about the four of you, I have 2/5 to hit scum, 2/5 to hit VENGEFUL scum, and 1/5 to hit village. Any thoughts on the Vengefuls?
1) WaterLily. The most likely scumflip based off my meta theory, and if my theroy's wrong it still gives info. We still have ONE misshot left, and if we can solve the game with it I'd say it's worth it.
2) It matches my own town block exactly, so I'd say no
3) ^ no
4) I don't have any indication on who the Vengefuls are, but i think it's optimal to hit one of each between Goon and Vengeful with our first two shots, so if anyone else has any kind of read for Vengeful vs not, all power to you. Hitting a goon gives us ONE extra misshot that we can afford, JUST IN CASE someone in the townblock turns out to be a wolf, and Vengeful hits make sure we don't get TOO much of a number advantage back, since that would make hitting scum less likely
 

Flyhn

Mafia Champion
About where scum would place their partners when they make a readslist. I doubt there'd be any category that doesn't have at least one scum in it, since the optimal thing to do would be spread your partners out between each one.
 
About where scum would place their partners when they make a readslist. I doubt there'd be any category that doesn't have at least one scum in it, since the optimal thing to do would be spread your partners out between each one.
1) That does not make sense, scum can always put their partners together for WIFOM
2) That's not even about what meta is
 

Flyhn

Mafia Champion
1) That does not make sense, scum can always put their partners together for WIFOM
2) That's not even about what meta is
1) Well, if they did and you end up flipping town, we'll effectively know who they are then given how few people in how few categories are still alive
2) Meta is anything that isn't about direct tone reads, and the definition of what meta means isn't really relevant right now anyway
 
Go ahead and shoot waterlily, who's ignoring my probe and hoping I forgot about it.

Fenrir is likely vengeful based on his virtue of giving no fuck this entire game.
Texas same reasoning but less strongly.
Idk bout deepwolf but if we're lucky it won't matter.
 
Okay, to make sure I have everyone:
Flyhn Duskfall98 Samoyed Fenrir Aesir #MAGiCVLGiRL_TRVP_B3VTZ Cancerous WaterLily3 Texas Cloverleaf

I removed the highlight on Flyhn because of pose 1,124. Including him below though in the questions for completeness.

Gunbearer here:
Dusk, Flyhn, Sam:
Congratulations on being on my dont-shoot list.
1) Who should I shoot, and why?
Imo either Lily/Fenrir or cancerous. Lily has been consistently weird throughout the game and constantly making weird posts. I don’t really agree with the reasons of flyhns push on them but I would be fine with them getting shot on other merits. However, I would consider: the high chance that they are vengeful. I think they’re probably past the point of being bad at mafia.

Fenrir has gone AWOL and though I townread him for quite a bit looking back most of his posts are big fillery walls. This shot is as good as any and I think we have a good chance of hitting scum with it. Usually fenrir continues throughout the game as town but flakes as scum.

Cancerous hasn’t convinced me they’re Town yet - but they’re last on my list for now because they’re at least making an effort. Toni is just w/e. It’s frustrating to have him play and blank out a slot and I would be in favour of blacklisting him temporarily unless he makes a commitment to play more

2) Is there someone in this trio that I should remove from my don't-shoot list, and why?
I don’t think any of us should be removed at this point. If you were liked forced to remove one I’d say maybe Flyhn? I think he’s probably town but some of his posts and pushes are pinging me as being nonsensical.

3) Is there someone I should ADD and why?
Magic has been consistently Town for me throughout this game and they are personally in me do not shoot pool.

4) If I'm right about the four of you, I have 2/5 to hit scum, 2/5 to hit VENGEFUL scum, and 1/5 to hit village. Any thoughts on the Vengefuls?
Vengefuls are probably someone like Lily/Fenrir/Cancerous who are looking scummier? It’s not necessarily indicative though as scum want to preserve their Vengefuls as much as possible.
 

Flyhn

Mafia Champion
tl;dr
His remaining unidentified townread is Sam, who is basically top town right now
Townleans most likely has 1 scum
Neutral/Scumleans have the remaining 3 between them, split 2-1, though I'm unsure which one's the 2
I've been saying this for a while. WaterLily's the only one of the scumleans from DS that isn't dead/holding the gun right now. Even if she's town, that tells me for certain that none of the scumleans were actually scum, and there's also only two neutrals left barring myself, so they're both likely scum too, and if WaterLily isn't they both DEFINITELY are as far as I'm concerned

WaterLily flips, either a scum's dead already or the game is solved barring my townlocks being incorrect. Which is why we need to hope that if scum, WaterLily's a Goon and not Vengeful. We need numbers back to give ourselves an extra misshot just in case that IS the case
 

Flyhn

Mafia Champion
To be clearer since I'm apparently having problems being clear with my thoughts

IF LILY IS TOWN, THAT MEANS THE SCUMTEAM IS TEXAS/MAGIC/CANCEROUS/FENRIR DUE TO PURE POE, unless Sam or Dusk is deepwolf THE GAME IS SOLVED

IF LILY IS SCUM, THAT'S A GOOD SHOT ANYWAY


That's the crux of my push right now
 

Flyhn

Mafia Champion
tl;dr
His remaining unidentified townread is Sam, who is basically top town right now
Townleans most likely has 1 scum
Neutral/Scumleans have the remaining 3 between them, split 2-1, though I'm unsure which one's the 2
Though back to this... this isn't really set in stone. I'm leaning that Townleans could very likely have two now, and HAS TO if Lily flips town
 
Aura Guardian I want a Texas shot, you flipping town means he's back to the slot's contributions having amounted to nothing and it's insane that the slot has gone ignored this long. I'm uncertain about Flyhn but I'll get back to you on him after I've done some re-reading. I still think WaterLily's interactions with Clarinet point to her being town and don't want her shot. Flyhn's sudden push on her baffles me.
 
Magic, Cancerous, WaterLily:
1) Why should I not shoot you?
2) Who should I shoot instead?
3) Can you make a compelling case to remove someone from my lock-town?
4) If so, who should I replace them with? If not, can you make a case for me to add someone?

Texas:
Same questions as Magic, Cancerous, and WaterLily but here's another:
5) You went after me for quite a bit there. Is there a reason I should remove you from my high priority list?
1. we cant afford to misfire any more
2. fenrir and lily are good shots purely on poe targets, i'd consider cancerous and dusk as well
3. probably not, there's some plausible situations where they wouldn't be town (deepwolfing, ate to self-clear, etc), but it's a tough case to make and not really a productive line to go down right now when we need to hit scum
4. n/a
5. i hit two scum on a meme list, thought there was a reasonable chance you'd make it 3 for 4. in your shoes i'd have to decide whether i had planned that or have just been putting in minimal effort

at the moment i'd say to decide how much you trust dusk and i soul reading each other, i think shooting me is probably optimal play at some point because we'll need to clear through my part of the PoE, but we can't afford to hit me until we get a little breathing room by hitting scum first
 
1. we cant afford to misfire any more
2. fenrir and lily are good shots purely on poe targets, i'd consider cancerous and dusk as well
3. probably not, there's some plausible situations where they wouldn't be town (deepwolfing, ate to self-clear, etc), but it's a tough case to make and not really a productive line to go down right now when we need to hit scum
4. n/a
5. i hit two scum on a meme list, thought there was a reasonable chance you'd make it 3 for 4. in your shoes i'd have to decide whether i had planned that or have just been putting in minimal effort

at the moment i'd say to decide how much you trust dusk and i soul reading each other, i think shooting me is probably optimal play at some point because we'll need to clear through my part of the PoE, but we can't afford to hit me until we get a little breathing room by hitting scum first
if Texas is scum he is vengeful from this post
 
I notice similarities between his answer style in question 1 to lily.
Which was a type of "what do you do for the town" question that was used to just say a variant of, "don't, I'm town" (not either's exact words) instead of actually giving a "why"
 

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