NOCWhy Is There A Gun In My Popcorn? 2: Old Country Boogaloo [GAME OVER Town Wins]

MewtwoHidden

I really don't like that fenrir post im ngl. the post afterwards acknowledging that he just posted a wallpost in rvs doesn't make it better.

CaffeineBoost

Puzzle Hunt Champion
I played on MS last year but days were too long for me and I got lynched in my first day of my first game. Then I quit

bonerman

Fenrir Aesir

If you're confused who I am put two and two together, What are synonyms of boner and man?

I really don't like that fenrir post im ngl. the post afterwards acknowledging that he just posted a wallpost in rvs doesn't make it better.
He urges necessity more as scum and it's way too early to assume he's fishing for good impressions

Samoyed

i think this is town mewtwo?

Aura Guardian

Hi everyone, I'm here. Does anyone remember how the last popcorn had good odds with pure randing?

I wrote up a couple programs to check if that's still the case.

calcWin calculates a pure village win. winWithDraw counts draws as wins.
Python:
``````def calcWin(village, mafia, vengeful):
if (village <= 0): # village eliminated
return 0
elif (vengeful >= village): # village cannot avoid elimination
return 0
elif (village == 1 and (mafia + vengeful) > 1): # mafia wincondition
return 0
elif ((mafia + vengeful) <= 0): # mafia eliminated; town still alive
return 1
elif (village >= 1 and mafia == 1 and vengeful == 0): # village cannot lose
return 1
else:
den = village + mafia + vengeful - 1
if (den <= 0):    # something very wrong
return 0
x = calcWin(village - 1, mafia, vengeful) * (village - 1) / den # hit town, can't self-hit
y = calcWin(village - 1, mafia, vengeful - 1) * vengeful / den # hit vengeful
z = calcWin(village, mafia -1, vengeful) * mafia / den # hit regular mafia
return (x + y + z)``````
Python:
``````def winWithDraw(village, mafia, vengeful):
if (village <= 0): # village eliminated
return 0
elif (vengeful > village): # village cannot avoid elimination
return 0
elif (village == 1 and (mafia + vengeful) > 1): # mafia wincondition
return 0
elif (village == 1 and vengeful == 1): # counting draw as a win
return 1
elif ((mafia + vengeful) <= 0): # mafia eliminated; town still alive
return 1
elif (village >= 1 and mafia == 1 and vengeful == 0): # village cannot lose
return 1
else:
den = village + mafia + vengeful - 1
if (den <= 0):    # something very wrong
return 0
x = winWithDraw(village - 1, mafia, vengeful) * (village - 1) / den # hit town, can't self-hit
y = winWithDraw(village - 1, mafia, vengeful - 1) * vengeful / den # hit vengeful
z = winWithDraw(village, mafia -1, vengeful) * mafia / den # hit regular mafia
return (x + y + z)``````
Python:
``````>>> calcWin(11,4,3)
0.5567612160248714
>>> winWithDraw(11,4,3)
0.6873275508921516
>>> winWithDraw(11,4,3) - calcWin(11,4,3)
0.1305663348672802
>>> 1 - winWithDraw(11,4,3)
0.3126724491078484``````
31.3% lose, 55.7% chance of win, and 13.1% chance of tie (rounding; yes that's 100.1%)
DO WE LIKE THOSE ODDS? DOES ANYONE DISAGREE WITH MY CALCULATIONS?

I suggest we just shoot according to random.org and hope. Odds are still in our favor if we miss the first time.

CaffeineBoost

Puzzle Hunt Champion
Hi everyone, I'm here. Does anyone remember how the last popcorn had good odds with pure randing?

I wrote up a couple programs to check if that's still the case.

calcWin calculates a pure village win. winWithDraw counts draws as wins.
Python:
``````def calcWin(village, mafia, vengeful):
if (village <= 0): # village eliminated
return 0
elif (vengeful >= village): # village cannot avoid elimination
return 0
elif (village == 1 and (mafia + vengeful) > 1): # mafia wincondition
return 0
elif ((mafia + vengeful) <= 0): # mafia eliminated; town still alive
return 1
elif (village >= 1 and mafia == 1 and vengeful == 0): # village cannot lose
return 1
else:
den = village + mafia + vengeful - 1
if (den <= 0):    # something very wrong
return 0
x = calcWin(village - 1, mafia, vengeful) * (village - 1) / den # hit town, can't self-hit
y = calcWin(village - 1, mafia, vengeful - 1) * vengeful / den # hit vengeful
z = calcWin(village, mafia -1, vengeful) * mafia / den # hit regular mafia
return (x + y + z)``````
Python:
``````def winWithDraw(village, mafia, vengeful):
if (village <= 0): # village eliminated
return 0
elif (vengeful > village): # village cannot avoid elimination
return 0
elif (village == 1 and (mafia + vengeful) > 1): # mafia wincondition
return 0
elif (village == 1 and vengeful == 1): # counting draw as a win
return 1
elif ((mafia + vengeful) <= 0): # mafia eliminated; town still alive
return 1
elif (village >= 1 and mafia == 1 and vengeful == 0): # village cannot lose
return 1
else:
den = village + mafia + vengeful - 1
if (den <= 0):    # something very wrong
return 0
x = winWithDraw(village - 1, mafia, vengeful) * (village - 1) / den # hit town, can't self-hit
y = winWithDraw(village - 1, mafia, vengeful - 1) * vengeful / den # hit vengeful
z = winWithDraw(village, mafia -1, vengeful) * mafia / den # hit regular mafia
return (x + y + z)``````
Python:
``````>>> calcWin(11,4,3)
0.5567612160248714
>>> winWithDraw(11,4,3)
0.6873275508921516
>>> winWithDraw(11,4,3) - calcWin(11,4,3)
0.1305663348672802
>>> 1 - winWithDraw(11,4,3)
0.3126724491078484``````
31.3% lose, 55.7% chance of win, and 13.1% chance of tie (rounding; yes that's 100.1%)
DO WE LIKE THOSE ODDS? DOES ANYONE DISAGREE WITH MY CALCULATIONS?

I suggest we just shoot according to random.org and hope. Odds are still in our favor if we miss the first time.
Man you put in an awful lot of work to say absolutely nothing lmao, I like your style.

BLOODYRAIN10001

oh, it's my buddy python
thanks for being easier to make short programs like that than C++ Python

but yeah, 55.7% of the time I win all the time

Aura Guardian

Just to clarify: I am seriously suggesting that we consider random shots. Random shots are immune to tunneling and bussing. They are immune to WIFOM. They give us a passable winrate, and better than the mafia has.

And, because of the game format, it's immune to the scum not voting randomly or inserting bad targets.

Samoyed

Just to clarify: I am seriously suggesting that we consider random shots. Random shots are immune to tunneling and bussing. They are immune to WIFOM. They give us a passable winrate, and better than the mafia has.

And, because of the game format, it's immune to the scum not voting randomly or inserting bad targets.
boring as fuck but I like it

BLOODYRAIN10001

Just to clarify: I am seriously suggesting that we consider random shots. Random shots are immune to tunneling and bussing. They are immune to WIFOM. They give us a passable winrate, and better than the mafia has.

And, because of the game format, it's immune to the scum not voting randomly or inserting bad targets.
Fair enough, I agree with this. Plus, isn't the win rate higher than projected since it doesn't account for people who have had the gun being cleared? (if you did account for that, my bad, I didn't look too closely, reading code is harder than coding code, at least for me)

BLOODYRAIN10001

of course, that isn't a "truly random" method of shooting since it avoids confirmed town, but in that case you just use RNG again
or maybe just take the list of living players and randomly sort it before starting to go down it and shooting the first person who's not confirmed town, that means you only have to do it once

Aura Guardian

I did; that's the -1 in assigning
den = village + mafia + vengeful - 1
as well as
* (village - 1) / den # hit town, can't self-hit

But there can only be one conftown at a time, unfortunately.

BLOODYRAIN10001

I did; that's the -1 in assigning
den = village + mafia + vengeful - 1
as well as
* (village - 1) / den # hit town, can't self-hit

But there can only be one conftown at a time, unfortunately.
didn't notice that, my bad
yeah, I'm willing to go with 55.7% then

BLOODYRAIN10001

oh, I didn't realize the GunBearer died if they shot town, that's why I didn't realize
if they didn't that'd be horrible for scum, yeah

Clarinet

Now I know votes don’t count for anything in this game

A good start: vote clarinet
oi

Clarinet

didn't get any notif that game started

Clarinet

im samoyed

im cute dog so you wouldn’t shoot me
this blatant buttering

Clarinet

I really want to kill this guy for this post
same, Caffeine's image was vile and that post was horrible

but is it scum? I'm trying to think why would he open in such a manner

MewtwoHidden

I mean lets try not to just rand people please. I think we can do a lot better than 55%.

MewtwoHidden

hi clarinet you are a god <3

Aura Guardian

To be clear, M2H: Is two posts ago a claim that you believe 55.7% vs 31.3% is insufficient compared to the normal strategy?

same, Caffeine's image was vile and that post was horrible

but is it scum? I'm trying to think why would he open in such a manner
I agree that I don't really like what Caffeine's done, though I'd extend it to most of his posts, not just that one.

MewtwoHidden

To be clear, M2H: Is two posts ago a claim that you believe 55.7% vs 31.3% is insufficient compared to the normal strategy?

MewtwoHidden

so yes, I am saying that 55 v 31 is insufficient.

Samoyed

when we don’t have a clue we rand.

MewtwoHidden

Yeah but you can still get better chances to win by process of elimination and by clearing people.