XY Suspect Testing Round 1 np: Michael Jackson - (extreme)Speed Demon (READ POST #1278)

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I would argue having several
(Assume this is greater than 10) checks is much better (for the game, not Luke) than having one or two counters and no other real checks.
The problem is that most of its checks don't work for half of its sets, so if you guess wrong, you're screwed
 
Alright, here's my promised long post. The goal of this post is not to convince you that Mega Lucario is not uber. I don't think I can single-handedly convince everyone that Mega Lucario isn't uber so he won't get banned. Rather, the goal of this post is to convince the reader that the argument against Mega Lucario isn't as strong as it's normally thought, and that it's completely unwarranted for the people here to think that it's a one-sided argument. Rather, I think it's an argument with equally strong sides for both uber and non-uber proponents.

As you all know, there are 3 characteristics to consider before naming a Pokemon "uber." Smogon defines these characteristics as follows:

Offensive Characteristic: A Pokémon is uber if, in common battle conditions, it is capable of sweeping through a significant portion of teams in the metagame with little effort.
Defensive Characteristic: A Pokémon is uber if, in common battle conditions, it is able to wall and stall out a significant portion of the metagame.
Support Characteristic: A Pokémon is uber if, in common battle conditions, it can consistently set up a situation in which it makes it substantially easier for other pokemon to sweep.

Now there's a mistake in these definitions in that one is supposed to use "if and only if" instead of "if" for definitions, but that's not really relevant on Smogon. What is relevant is that Mega Lucario fits into one of these characteristics. It's obviously not the defense characteristic since he has really poor defensive stats: have you ever seen a RestTalk Lucario? The other two characteristics, on the other hand, are significant. The offense characteristic is the one I will be discussing the most throughout this post, since Lucario is generally used as a lategame sweeper, though he can be used to open holes in the opponent's team for other sweepers as well. By discussing the offense characteristic we can understand whether or not he fits into the support characteristic for uber Pokemon as well.

Mega Lucario--who gets STAB for Steel and Fighting type moves--has 145 base attack and 140 special attack, along with 112 base speed, and decent enough bulk to survive most attacks. His ability is probably what has caused people to consider him uber: Adaptability, which increases STAB to 2x instead of 1.5x. This means that Close Combat does significantly more damage compared to LO Lucario: in addition to not losing health after every damaging move, he also does a lot more damage due to his higher attack stat and Adaptability. For the sake of comparison, Mega Lucario does at least 144% damage against the most common Blissey whereas LO Lucario can only manage 115% against the same Blissey. Adaptability is one of the two main reasons people consider him uber.

But Mega Lucario is an extremely strong special sweeper as well. At 140 base special attack, a number comparable to his base attack, he has even fewer counters as a special sweeper, though he generally does a lot more damage as a physical sweeper. Nasty Plot can be used to deceive the incoming Landorus-T or Gliscor and you can OHKO them with Flash Cannon, or hit another incoming Pokemon really hard with it. Lucario's unpredictability is easily the second of the two main reasons he is considered uber. I don't think that Adaptability is as impressive as people think it is; I'm convinced that if he is to be considered uber at all, it's due to the second reason, his versatility.

Some have taken issue with what I define as checks and counters. For the sake of simplicity, I'll go with Smogon's definition of both. There are some issues with these definitions, but I'll accept them as true.

Pokémon A checks Pokémon B if, when Pokémon A is given a free switch into Pokémon B, Pokémon A can win every time, even under the worst case scenario, without factoring in hax.
Pokémon A counters Pokémon B if Pokémon A can manually switch into Pokémon B and still win every time, even under the worst case scenario, without factoring in hax.

Notice that going by these definitions, Pokemon like Charizard have no counters. This is because there is no one Pokemon who can switch

Let's list and consider each one:

Checks to most sets:

Talonflame (he can take a hit from ES at full health, and he can take a hit from BP and VW after SR)
Genesect (with the exception of Vacuum Wave sets
Greninja (he can take a hit from both ES and BP, but not VW)
Conkeldurr
Breloom
Starmie (can take a hit from ES in additon to VW and BP)
A bunch of Scarf users, ranging from Garchomp, Rotom-W, Heatran, and so on.

You'll notice that a lot of these depend on Vacuum Wave. That is why I said check to "most" sets. If Lucario goes with Vacuum Wave, he's going to be a victim of Talonflame. If Lucario goes for ExtremeSpeed or Bullet Punch, he'll still be unable to deal with Genesect. No matter what move you go with you're still screwed against a check one way or another. Bu since only 32% of Lucarios have Vacuum Wave, you can generally use Genesect against him--and you can certainly use Genesect against him if he uses SD. You can always use Talonflame against him if he uses NP. No matter what priority move Lucario chooses there will be many reliable checks to deal with him.

Cripplers:

Sableye
Klefki
Thundurus
Salamence
Manectric
Landorus-T

All these Pokemon are ones who can somehow paralyze him, or lower his attack, preventing a sweep. Lucario isn't very good if he's paralyzed, and if you have an Intimidate user, you can try to play around him by Intimidating him until you can get a nice hit on him. These may not be checks or counters but they're still worth mentioning.

SD Lucario w/ Ice Punch:

Aegislash
Mega Venusaur (Sleep Powder)
Jellicent
Bulky Gyarados
Bulky Zapdos
Bulky Moltres
Bulky Volcarona

Aegislash is a solid counter to SD Lucario with Ice Punch. Aegislash can even take a hit from SD Crunch Lucario, though, so death is not guaranteed if you get the prediction wrong here. Mega Venusaur with Sleep Powder is a decent counter to every single variant of Mega Lucario, as are Bulky Gyarados, Zapdos, Moltres and Volcarona. Jellicent can burn Lucario with Ice Punch with no problems and take a hit from even SD Crunch Lucario.

SD Lucario w/ Crunch:

Aegislash (with good play)
Gliscor
Mega Venusaur (Sleep Powder)
Bulky Gyarados
Landorus-T
Bulky Zapdos
Bulky Moltres
Bulky Volcarona

You aren't guaranteed to take on Aegislash if you use Crunch here. I consider it a bad idea to use Crunch for a few reasons: the only reason you want Crunch is for Aegislash, who has King's Shield! It's not even guaranteed you'll win for certain. On the other hand, you will win for certain against Landorus-T and Gliscor. I think it's pretty clear that Crunch is an inferior choice, but it is still worth considering. You are now countered by Gliscor and Landorus-T as well. It's clear that this set has some hard counters.

NP Lucario w/ Dark Pulse, Flash Cannon, Aura Sphere:

Bulky Gyarados
Mega Venusaur
Bulky Zapdos
Bulky Moltres
Volcarona

This set has few real counters, but it has more checks than usual due to having no priority moves. For example, Alakazam, Talonflame, Genesect and so on all have an easy time against him.

NP Lucario w/ Vacuum Wave over Dark Pulse:

Aegislash
Bulky Gyarados
Mega Venusaur
Bulky Zapdos
Bulky Moltres
Bulky Volcarona

This set has some advantages; it can't be checked by Genesect and Scarf Heatran, for example. Unfortunately Dark Pulse is handy against Aegislash, who can't use King's Shield against you. I'm not going to consider Lucario with Vacuum Wave over Aura Sphere. He can't get past the most common Pokemon in the game, Rotom-W (who usually sports Calm nature with 252 SpD EVs according to usage).

What do we have to learn from these considerations? It's true that Mega Lucario is ridiculously strong thanks to Adaptability, but surprisingly enough, he still has some pretty good counters in the OU metagame. This is due to a phenomenon known as the "four moveslot syndrome" or 4MSS for short. Since the reason Mega Lucario is so dangerous is generally due to Swords Dance or Nasty Plot, if he picks one move over another, a lot more things can counter him. If he doesn't have a priority move, he's checked by a lot more things. If you go with Crunch over Ice Punch, he's countered by more things. And so on. So Adaptability is not that much of an issue, though I grant he wouldn't be uber without it. What really is an issue is his unpredictability.

Another observation is that each given Lucario set has many counters: it's his unpredictability that makes him so dangerous. And I agree; I think it's a problem that the opponent has to play the guessing game with Lucario when he comes in. But think of it like this: Charizard might be even more unpredictable than Lucario is, but no one thinks he's uber. You have to play the guessing game whenever Charizard comes in, and he has no solid counters for both of his sets at the same time. Is Charizard uber? Of course not. So just because a Pokemon has no counters for both sets at the same time, it doesn't mean they're uber.

You'll also notice that many of these counters are weak to Stealth Rock. This is because Fighting's resists, Flying and Bug, are both weak to SR. These Pokemon who can counter Lucario are Zapdos, Moltres, Volcarona and Gyarados. It's generally assumed by most of the debaters here that SR will always be up, with no cost whatsoever. This is naive to say the least. In real competitive play at a high level, SR is not that easy to set up for multiple reasons:

1. It can cost 2 turns to set up SR if you start the match with your SR lead: one to use SR and one to switch out. If you don't start with your SR lead, it costs 3 turns: one to switch in, one to use SR, one to switch out. The best time to use SR is when, for example, you bring in SR Heatran into Talonflame. Then it only really costs one turn, but this may not always happen.
2. One word: Defog. SR isn't as big of a threat as it used to be in the previous generations, since a lot of teams nowadays pack Defog. If the opponent manages to use Defog, you'll need to take a few turns to use SR again for your Mega Lucario's sweep.

These turns you lose using SR are precious. You lose momentum when you could have been doing something else, and in some cases, if your opponent keeps up the offensive pressure, you might not even be able to set up SR at all. Furthermore, some have argued that Defog + Rapid Spin costs the same amount of turns. This is true, but this doesn't detract from the point that SR has costs. I am merely making the claim that SR cannot be taken for granted as everyone thinks it can be here.

Another reason why Moltres, Volcarona, Zapdos and Gyarados do make good counters to Lucario is that you'll generally want to use Defog and/or Rapid Spin along with them. This is especially true if you pack Pokemon like Moltres, Volcarona and Talonflame in your team. Why on earth would you use them without Defog and/or Rapid Spin? Seems kinda silly, right? It's really hard to assume that the opponent will always have SR up all the time.

Let's consider the final point of this post, now. That Mega Lucario will always have SD or NP in every situation. Almost everyone thinks it's the easiest thing to set up in the world, even for a fragile sweeper like Lucario! This is far from the truth. I'll credit Kairyu_Gen1 for expanding on my analysis of how hard it is for Lucario to set up SD/NP:

Rotom-Can WoW physical set, or 2HKO special set. If it uses the wrong move though, it'll either get set up on and 2HKO'd by CC or get set up on and 3HKO'd by Aura Sphere
Aegislash-This one mostly depends on prediction. Whoever wins the mind games wins the fight
Talonflame-OHKO's with flare blitz and almost OHKO's with BB. Luke's either switching out or dead
Genesect-OHKO's with flamethrower and blaze kick. Also outspeeds 1st turn and every turn with a scarf
Greninja-Has a 68% (really 54% factoring the miss) chance to OHKO with Hydro Pump, but is always 2HKO'd by vacuum wave. Greninja will either win or cripple most of the time though, and Luke can never set up
Charizard-is outsped and OHKO'd on the 1st turn. Luke can't OHKO without boosts even if it does outspeed anyway
Lucario-Do I need to say it?
Heatran-OHKO each other, but Luke is faster
Gliscor-Physical set's toast unless it has ice punch, but the special set can 2HKO with flash cannon, but will be left with about 10%. I'd just switch out, but if you're ok with a +2 Mega Luke at 10%, then feel free to stay in
Garchomp-Always run from the EQ
Azumarill-without thunderpunch, either OHKO'd by superpower, or 2HKO'd by STABs. Special set can 2HKO Flash Cannon, but it won't work on either AV, lefties, or Sitrus sets
Scizor-Finally a safe one. Scizor's best option is to U-Turn out, dealing very little damage. You'll get very safe set up
Ferrothorn-Easy set up and OHKO. You'll probably get a leech seed and maybe some recoil damage though. Careful about Twave too
Tyranitar-Blue, unless it has Fire Blast or Earthquake, I'd just KO to be safe
Conkeldurr-Get out, it'll just kill you
Excadrill-You both OHKO, but Luke's faster
Dragonite-2HKO'd by coverage moves
Venusaur-Kinda messy theoretically. You can be 2HKO'd by HP Fire, or 3-4HKO'd by Giga Drain, or seeded, or put to sleep. If it has HP fire or sleep powder, you want to run. If it doesn't, you can set up 2 boosts and OHKO with either CC or Flash Cannon
Mandibuzz-special sets can set up and KO, taking ~66% damage in the process, but physical sets will get stalled out or KO'd by foul play
Gengar-You OHKO each other, but Gengar's faster at first
Espeon-If you have a dark move, you should have no trouble. It can set up screens, but it has to guess which one to do since it'll only have 1 guaranteed turn
Mamoswine-You OHKO each other, and Luke's faster, but watch out for sash
Goodra-Physical sets can OHKO (93% chance) with CC, but you'll be left with -1 Def, SpD, and possibly Spe. Goodra always OHKO's with fire blast anyway
Alakazam-OHKO each other, but Alakazam's faster
Landorus-T-Run from the EQ
Togekiss-If you have a steel STAB (other than bullet punch), you're good. If not, you'll probably get Twaved
Skarmory-Luke can boost, then OHKO (only 88% chance on CC), but it risks the whirlwind or taking 50% from BB
Breloom-OHKO each other, but Mach Punch goes first
Infernape-Run, you'll be outsped and OHKO'd
Volcarona-OHKO'd by fire STABs
Kairyu's analysis here demonstrates how difficult it is for Lucario to get a boost. For the vast majority of this list, Mega Lucario has no business setting up at all either because he's so fragile, or he's vulnerable to status, or he has so many weaknesses, or both. Even for the Pokemon who he can OHKO, like Tyranitar, Heatran and Excadrill, they can prevent him from setting up! In fact, out of this list, there are only 3 Pokemon it can set up for sure on: Espeon, Scizor and Ferrothorn, since Skarmory can just Whirlwind him away. The main thing to learn from Kairyu's analysis is that it actually is really hard for Mega Lucario to set up, and there's no reason to assume it will always have SD or NP up.

I'll sum up some of what this overly long post is trying to say for the more lazy people:

1. The main reason Mega Lucario should be considered uber is due to its unpredictability
2. But unpredictable and uncounterable Pokemon are not necessarily uber. See Charizard.
3. There are a couple mistaken assumptions the Mega Lucario for uber proponents make:
3a. SR will always be up. This is false; SR grants the opponent from 1 to 3 free turns to do other things and as a result you lose momentum. Also, Defog and Rapid Spin are a lot more common this generation.
3b. Mega Lucario will always be able to use SD or NP easily. This is exaggerated and false.

What I've been trying to convince the reader is that this argument is not one-sided at all, and I hope this at least partially convinces you that the discussion on Mega Lucario's going to uber is more controversial than it is thought to be. He doesn't necessarily fit the offense or support characteristic because he has many counters depending on a given set. Mega Lucario is a great Pokemon, but not so great that he should automatically be considered uber materal.
 
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Albacore

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Yikes, that's a long post. Some points you make are correct, like a Pokemon having no hard counters doesn't mean it's Uber (see gen V Hydreigon), and users of Lucario counters having a couple of spinners on their team (I use Talonflame and have 2 Spinners) but I will correct you on a couple of things you say that aren't really true :

-Not every MLucario has to run SD or NP. I've already highlighted this in a previous post. It makes it easier to switch and gives you better coverage.
-You seem to believe there exists only the physical SD set or the special NP set, when MLucario can easily go mixed.
-Charizard may be uncounterable in the same way that MLucario is, but there's one main difference : Charizard is much, MUCH easier to revenge kill. It's slower, has no priority, and has more weaknesses and fewer resistances.
 
Checks or counters to individual sets aren't particularly important for Lucario. You just don't get the option of scouting its set without losing a Pokemon doing so. Even if you could carry a counter to every single Lucario set, if you choose the wrong one to send in, you're likely going to have to sacrifice it because either a) your counter to Luke's actual set will be 2HKO'd switching in, or b) you risk Luke boosting on the switch and sweeping you regardless. I'm not going to go so far as to say that the existence of counters to its individual sets is irrelevant, but it's nowhere near as important as you're making it out to be.

If I could propose a more relevant way to decide if something is broken under the Offensive or Support (wallbreaking) characteristics; if as the defensive player you have to sacrifice substantially more, on average, to negate the threat, than the opponent needs to sacrifice in order to pose the threat, then that threat should be considered broken.

This is clearly true of Lucario. Counters to individual sets don't substantially lower the average damage it will do while in play. Neither do Stealth Rock weak counters, since the work needed to keep Stealth Rock off the field (which must necessarily on average outstrip that needed to lay it in the first place) contributes to the average damage done by Lucario. Essentially, as the defensive player you will almost invariably have to sacrifice far more than the Lucario user to keep it at bay; by my criteria, it's broken.

Charizard isn't comparable to Lucario because a), the work needed to get it in safely and pose a threat is much greater (especially a sustained threat in the face of Stealth Rock), b) it can be forced out more easily, and c), the things that force it out (moreso for Char-Y) can be offensive threats in their own right, preserving some offensive momentum. This isn't the case for Lucario.
 
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My final impressions.
For my opinion, Genesect should have more reasons to be Uber than Mega lucario. Even though Mega Lucario has no counters and Genesect has Heatran, I see more broken for Genesect because his more destructive power at +0, being way more bulky (even though it usually has a -Def nature), the most used version (Choice Scarf specially based), his U-turn is either too fast (meanigng you can't deal with him) or is too powerful (specially at +1). I found Mega Lucario to be a formidable threat, it could be broken but I don't see as much as broken as Genesect in my opinion. Why? His poor bulk, specially from the special side when the attack is not resisted, and the inability to guaranteed 2HKO at +0 to some bulky pokemon with nothing but Close Combat. I'm sure that Lucario without Close Combat is not broken but I wouldn't suggest a Lucarionite + Close Combat (or Lucario + Close Combat) complex ban.

About Deoxys-S, it's not broken anymore. I doubt that the Life Orb set is "Uber worthy" (It's a serious threat, of course) but my main attention is the Hazard setters. Given the changes in Defog (with many good users) and the return of Excadrill entry hazards are less prevalent. Also, the threat of Defog reduces hazards even more because it's uncompatible with hazards setters (you can only have Stealth Rock with Defog). This mean is practice, the only common hazard is Stealth Rock and mainly to deal with Charizard, Talonflame, Pinsir, Dragonite (Multiscale broken), etc. Gen IV leads are viable, but not that threatening.

And even though I know this thread is only to talk about the current suspects, I talk about two species that I think should mention; Aegislash (mixed sets, benefits from beiung slow, the only pokemon that can abuse WP well (Dragonite can't reliable abuse at 99,9%), very prediction reliant and King's Shield (and halves the attack if you hit from it))and a surprise, Shaymin-Sky* (his brokeness is NOT that obvious, too many weakness, Air Slash is not that great, Seed Flare has many 1/4 resists in the Top, even without Genesect, and it could reduce Rotom-W usage).

*And by it, it doesn't mean that Darkrai (because the two are usually "related" for being in the same generation) should be given a test. Grass types has a hard time in the OU metagame right now (even with Gene gone, see Rotom-W usage), Darkrai is obviously broken.

and my predictions:
Mega Lucario: Ubers
Genesect: 50/50. I'm inclined for OU if the requirement is 66,6%.
Deoxys-S: OU w2ith less than 20% of Ubers vote.

Clair said:
if as the defensive player you have to sacrifice substantially more, on average, to negate the threat, than the opponent needs to sacrifice in order to pose the threat, then that threat should be considered broken.
Except how common are stall teams in the Gen VI metagame. The most common playstyles are Offense, Bulky Offense and Balanced. Semi.stall teams are a bit rare while Stall teams are more rare than rain teams. And this is happening in Ubers, in OU and in UU. Please, not make a pokemon broken based on stall team when those have "UU usage (2.2% on teams)".
 
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...

About Deoxys-S, it's not broken anymore. I doubt that the Life Orb set is "Uber worthy" (It's a serious threat, of course) but my main attention is the Hazard setters. Given the changes in Defog (with many good users) and the return of Excadrill entry hazards are less prevalent.
...
Problem is, when opponent will have DEOXYS-S + OFFENSIVE TEAM... you may have Excadrill, but you might have no chance for using Rapid Spin (Ghosts)...
Excadrill 2!!!HKO her with his STAB...

Definately reason for her to be in OU is Defog, but I can see only two viable Defoggers against offensive teams - Skarmory and Mandibuzz... and both can be taken down with Electric move. RESULT? Playing Deoxys-S + Ghost + Electric (for example Aegislash @ Air Balloon and Manectric Mega) is too strong in my opinion.

You might need to use Defog, to blow away SR and Spikes but you have to stop Aegislash as well from Sweeping... you have to choose your priority...
there might be situation in which you either blow away SR and Spikes or stop Aegislash, but not both.

I think it is definately the strongest Spiker, SR, Taunter... Too much speed, Defenses aren't too bad, pretty good movepool against Pokémon that are super-effective on her.

I would argue having several
(Assume this is greater than 10) checks is much better (for the game, not Luke) than having one or two counters and no other real checks.
How can be check better than counter? That's bullshit.
Every counter is check as well,
Counter > Check
 
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Mega Lucario in the right hands takes out at least one Pokemon and that usually could be the thing keeping you in the battle altogether. Genesect on the other hand doesn't have the same team ability. It isn't an out and out destroyer on most teams. The pro ban for Genesect seems to be a lack of appreciation for what it does and it is a great scout.
With the scarf Genesect, keep the rocks up and reduce the amount of times it can switch in so it then gets forced into using another move. It then is locked in something not ideal and switching out isn't an option it can then die. If it had bullet punch then Genesect could be more suspect and problematic but I feel its only revenge killing move in terms of priority is a weak extreme speed compared to what bullet punch could achieve.
Sometimes it is easy to sit there and cry to ban something you can't tackle but I have lost to all three suspect Pokemon and with a clear mind can only say that using a Mega Lucario is the only one from the list that leaves a sour taste in my mouth. I have seen some poorly made up teams get the cracks paved over by Lucarios access to boosted priority STAB attacks that make him far too powerful for just one Pokemon to check or counter which makes him too strong for what is available right now in OU. Sure Genesect hits hard and can be a nuisance but there is a big use for him for a reason. It is a fantastic pivot but has plenty of things in the Overused tier capable of neutralizing it over time. It is a Pokemon that takes a bit to wear down rather than just a one on one situation so if you know the U-Turn is coming then check and carry on taking out the things making it stronger.
The shift gear set can hurt if you set it up well but again it can be chipped away as it isn't as durable as other steel pokemon.

Deoxys is fine.
 
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How does Mega Lucario fare against Impish Intimidate Gyarados? I put that set into bReakMyTeam and didn't see any Mega Lucario sets pop up.

*Edit: Just did the math manually and found that a +1 Mega Lucario will do 45.1%-53.2% damage on a Close Combat Switch in vs a 252 Hp/252 Def Intimidate Assault Vest Gyarados.

The Special variants will do much worse versus the same Gyarados set for a max of 31.2% - 36.8% with Dark Pulse at +2.

Thunder Punch was a guaranteed OHKO with the Physical Set at +1 and 56.8% - 68% unboosted with the Special set.

With this set a Gyarados can fire back an Earthquake for 68%-81.1% back. Of all the sets it seems that the Physical is the most broken on Mega Lucario.

You can slap a Ground Gem for a guaranteed OHKO on either set but the chances of the Physical set still coming out on top are roughly 50/50 and that's without counting the SR weakness on Gyarados.

**Edit the last: Did the SR calcs and found that it becomes impossible for Gyarados to do anything to either set after SR damage only if boosted to +2 (Intimidate calculation included for the Physical set). However, personally, I don't understand how anyone can let a Mega Lucario get a free boost but that's just me. By this same logic a +2 Mega Garchomp is just as bad to switch into.

***Edit nothing to see here: Unboosted Special Lucario gets a guaranteed OHKO on Gyarados after Stealth Rocks with HP Electric.
 
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Albacore

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You can slap a Ground Gem for a guaranteed OHKO on either set but the chances of the Physical set still coming out on top are roughly 50/50 and that's without counting the SR weakness on Gyarados.
Ground Gem doesn't exist in XY. Also, and more importantly, you can't wear both Assault Vest and Ground Gem.
Unboosted Special Lucario gets a guaranteed OHKO on Gyarados after Stealth Rocks with HP Electric.
Thunder Punch could be somewhat viable, but HP Electric (or anything besides maybe Rock or Ice) is a pretty stupid idea on MLucario.

AV Gyarados seems like the best Mega-Lucario counter overall, I'm glad you brought it up. The physical set has 30% chance to 2HKO, and the special set, as you said, can't touch it, while Gyarados can 2HKO back with Earthquake. SR and Thunder Punch are definitely issues, though. Not sure how viable AV Gyarados is in general, though.
 

alphatron

Volt turn in every tier! I'm in despair!
I still see a lot of people using deoxys-S as a pure suicide hazard setter on the ladder and my only question is "why?"
 

Jukain

!_!
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I still see a lot of people using deoxys-S as a pure suicide hazard setter on the ladder and my only question is "why?"
Yeah Deoxys-D is 20x as bad.

Okay everyone: The characteristics are not official means to determine banning anymore. It has been this way since BW. A Pokemon does not have to fit a characteristic to be broken. Doesn't fit characteristic =/= not broken.
 
I still see a lot of people using deoxys-S as a pure suicide hazard setter on the ladder and my only question is "why?"
If your team needs a hazard setter that can get the hazards up and get out of the way like hyper offensive teams do, who else would you suggest? Deoxys-S does the best job of any Pokemon in the metagame. Also the LO set tends to lose momentum as it gets one hit off and then immediately has to run for dear life. It will get the occasional late game sweep but it's frailty means it either OHKOs its target or gets OHKOd in return. That often makes LO Deoxys-S high risk/high reward. Both sets are incredibly viable in the OU metagame and I don't think either set, or the combination of both, should make it Uber. But, when arguing which set is better, I would give the (slight) edge to the hazard setter.
 
Mega Lucario... where to start. Well, lets take a look at its stats. First of all, it gets the powerful ability Adaptability, which doubles the power of the moves that are the same type as the pokemon... Considering lucario can run 2 sets, special or attacking. It is a quite unfair pokemon until after teh first turn. You don't know until it either uses its attacking move or SD/NP, which is a bit unfair. Also, it gets a monstrous 145 attack and 140 sp atk. After a NP or SD, its stats absolutely sky rocket. With its ability, and its good movepool, it has potential to OHKO almost every pokemon with CC or High Jump Kick that doesnt resist it after an SD. It also has 112 speed, which outspeeds a lot of pokemon in the OU tier that are not choice scarfed. So in other words, this thing is a monstrous sweeper.

My opinion on Mega Lucario: ban it.

Genesect:

For now, genesect isn't really a threat to me. Almost all the time you will see choice scarf sets. Now, I understand that this thing gets download, but is it really that bad? I mean usually it just comes in to get a u turn off, since it works very well with the choice scarf set. But a lot of other choice scarf users can outspeed this guy and KO him, such as salamence with fire blast.

My opinion on Genesect: He can stay

Deoxys S: no words, just dont ban it its not even that gr8 lol
 
Mega Lucario... where to start. Well, lets take a look at its stats. First of all, it gets the powerful ability Adaptability, which doubles the power of the moves that are the same type as the pokemon... Considering lucario can run 2 sets, special or attacking. It is a quite unfair pokemon until after teh first turn. You don't know until it either uses its attacking move or SD/NP, which is a bit unfair. Also, it gets a monstrous 145 attack and 140 sp atk. After a NP or SD, its stats absolutely sky rocket. With its ability, and its good movepool, it has potential to OHKO almost every pokemon with CC or High Jump Kick that doesnt resist it after an SD. It also has 112 speed, which outspeeds a lot of pokemon in the OU tier that are not choice scarfed. So in other words, this thing is a monstrous sweeper.

My opinion on Mega Lucario: ban it.

Genesect:

For now, genesect isn't really a threat to me. Almost all the time you will see choice scarf sets. Now, I understand that this thing gets download, but is it really that bad? I mean usually it just comes in to get a u turn off, since it works very well with the choice scarf set. But a lot of other choice scarf users can outspeed this guy and KO him, such as salamence with fire blast.

My opinion on Genesect: He can stay

Deoxys S: no words, just dont ban it its not even that gr8 lol
I'm sorry but your arguement is flawed. You said that a lot of Pokemon that aren't scarfed get beaten by Lucario, but then said that Pokemon that are scarfed can beat Genesect. Your logic therefore dictates that Pokemon that aren't scarfed will also be beaten by Genesect, but Scarfed Pokemon can beat Lucario.
 
I'm sorry but your arguement is flawed. You said that a lot of Pokemon that aren't scarfed get beaten by Lucario, but then said that Pokemon that are scarfed can beat Genesect. Your logic therefore dictates that Pokemon that aren't scarfed will also be beaten by Genesect, but Scarfed Pokemon can beat Lucario.
The difference is Mega Lucario has 3 types of base 80 power priority, which lets it beat many Scarfers, whereas Genesect will always move after faster Scarfers.
 
The difference is Mega Lucario has 3 types of base 80 power priority, which lets it beat many Scarfers, whereas Genesect will always move after faster Scarfers.
Genesect also can get Extremespeed. And if it gets a Download boost, it can hit about as hard as Mega Lucario's Extremespeed even uninvested and considerably harder if invested.
 
Genesect also can get Extremespeed. And if it gets a Download boost, it can hit about as hard as Mega Lucario's Extremespeed even uninvested and considerably harder if invested.
The Choice Scarf set is what was being discussed and that set never runs ExtremeSpeed. Pretty much every other set does, but the set being discussed does not.
 

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Another thing I'd like to bring up about mega lucario is that it can absorb knock offs all day.
I like to have an aegislash to lure knock off from the likes of mandibuzz and bisharp, switch in with my non-mega lucario, get the justified boost, and even though I probably won't sweep (sometimes that happens too) I usually just end up taking out two pokemon. It's a really fun core to play with :P
Anyway.

Notice that going by these definitions, Pokemon like Charizard have no counters. This is because there is no one Pokemon who can switch
This is pretty irrelevant, but I'm pretty sure Eo Ut Mortus used a sap sipper azumarill with toxic/protect/scald/something else. This azumarill CAN check both charizards.
Also, unpredictability isn't all that matters here. Both charizards are much much easier to revenge kill, have much less weaknesses, and are pressured by SR much much more.

Cripplers:

Sableye
Klefki
Thundurus
Salamence
Manectric
Landorus-T

All these Pokemon are ones who can somehow paralyze him, or lower his attack, preventing a sweep. Lucario isn't very good if he's paralyzed, and if you have an Intimidate user, you can try to play around him by Intimidating him until you can get a nice hit on him. These may not be checks or counters but they're still worth mentioning.
Salamence, Manectric, and Landorus-T are all pretty irrelevant because they lose to the special set. And besides, manectric doesn't have intimidate, its mega manectric that does. Lando-T loses to the special set unless its scarf, Salamence loses to ice punch from physical or flash cannon from special. Salamence only helps on SD variants without ice punch and then there's no reason to use it over lando-t.

SD Lucario w/ Ice Punch:

Aegislash
Mega Venusaur (Sleep Powder)
Jellicent
Bulky Gyarados
Bulky Zapdos
Bulky Moltres
Bulky Volcarona

Aegislash is a solid counter to SD Lucario with Ice Punch. Aegislash can even take a hit from SD Crunch Lucario, though, so death is not guaranteed if you get the prediction wrong here. Mega Venusaur with Sleep Powder is a decent counter to every single variant of Mega Lucario, as are Bulky Gyarados, Zapdos, Moltres and Volcarona. Jellicent can burn Lucario with Ice Punch with no problems and take a hit from even SD Crunch Lucario.

SD Lucario w/ Crunch:

Aegislash (with good play)
Gliscor
Mega Venusaur (Sleep Powder)
Bulky Gyarados
Landorus-T
Bulky Zapdos
Bulky Moltres
Bulky Volcarona

You aren't guaranteed to take on Aegislash if you use Crunch here. I consider it a bad idea to use Crunch for a few reasons: the only reason you want Crunch is for Aegislash, who has King's Shield! It's not even guaranteed you'll win for certain. On the other hand, you will win for certain against Landorus-T and Gliscor. I think it's pretty clear that Crunch is an inferior choice, but it is still worth considering. You are now countered by Gliscor and Landorus-T as well. It's clear that this set has some hard counters.

NP Lucario w/ Dark Pulse, Flash Cannon, Aura Sphere:

Bulky Gyarados
Mega Venusaur
Bulky Zapdos
Bulky Moltres
Volcarona

This set has few real counters, but it has more checks than usual due to having no priority moves. For example, Alakazam, Talonflame, Genesect and so on all have an easy time against him.

NP Lucario w/ Vacuum Wave over Dark Pulse:

Aegislash
Bulky Gyarados
Mega Venusaur
Bulky Zapdos
Bulky Moltres
Bulky Volcarona

This set has some advantages; it can't be checked by Genesect and Scarf Heatran, for example. Unfortunately Dark Pulse is handy against Aegislash, who can't use King's Shield against you. I'm not going to consider Lucario with Vacuum Wave over Aura Sphere. He can't get past the most common Pokemon in the game, Rotom-W (who usually sports Calm nature with 252 SpD EVs according to usage).
You basically just proved yourself wrong throughout all this. The very fact that if its special or physical has different counters alone is enough to prove that its broken. But you took it one step further and you even listed counters for variants of either physical or special. It has that many "possibilities" of checks, but then what? You're essentially sacking a pokemon just to find out that its actually physical with extremespeed and since rocks are up your talonflame actually isn't a check.

What do we have to learn from these considerations? It's true that Mega Lucario is ridiculously strong thanks to Adaptability, but surprisingly enough, he still has some pretty good counters in the OU metagame. This is due to a phenomenon known as the "four moveslot syndrome" or 4MSS for short. Since the reason Mega Lucario is so dangerous is generally due to Swords Dance or Nasty Plot, if he picks one move over another, a lot more things can counter him. If he doesn't have a priority move, he's checked by a lot more things. If you go with Crunch over Ice Punch, he's countered by more things. And so on. So Adaptability is not that much of an issue, though I grant he wouldn't be uber without it. What really is an issue is his unpredictability.
Every Mega luke carries priority. Even if its not true, then almost nothing can switch in. It's not even about playing the guessing game, or which set has more counters. Its the fact that if you predict wrong, you just lost a pokemon. The simple fact you have to sack a pokemon to find out what it is makes it broken. It doesn't matter how many counters what set has if those counters are all mauled by a different and still viable set.

Another observation is that each given Lucario set has many counters: it's his unpredictability that makes him so dangerous. And I agree; I think it's a problem that the opponent has to play the guessing game with Lucario when he comes in. But think of it like this: Charizard might be even more unpredictable than Lucario is, but no one thinks he's uber. You have to play the guessing game whenever Charizard comes in, and he has no solid counters for both of his sets at the same time. Is Charizard uber? Of course not. So just because a Pokemon has no counters for both sets at the same time, it doesn't mean they're uber.
Charizard is a terrible example to compare it to. Sure, they're both unpredictable, but there are important differences that set it apart. First off, charizard has an incredible amount of offensive checks. That also applies to mega lucario, but lets take it a step further. Charizard has NO access to priority, meaning that it can't beat opposing priority or opposing scarfers unless it gets a speed boost, which only Char-X can do (ignoring flame charge Char-y, roost is better) Lastly, it takes a little off of your mind that the opponent has to bring charizard in when stealth rocks aren't up. This pressures them to reveal what charizard you are early-game, where it won't be as devastating to make a mistake.

You'll also notice that many of these counters are weak to Stealth Rock. This is because Fighting's resists, Flying and Bug, are both weak to SR. These Pokemon who can counter Lucario are Zapdos, Moltres, Volcarona and Gyarados. It's generally assumed by most of the debaters here that SR will always be up, with no cost whatsoever. This is naive to say the least. In real competitive play at a high level, SR is not that easy to set up for multiple reasons:

1. It can cost 2 turns to set up SR if you start the match with your SR lead: one to use SR and one to switch out. If you don't start with your SR lead, it costs 3 turns: one to switch in, one to use SR, one to switch out. The best time to use SR is when, for example, you bring in SR Heatran into Talonflame. Then it only really costs one turn, but this may not always happen.
2. One word: Defog. SR isn't as big of a threat as it used to be in the previous generations, since a lot of teams nowadays pack Defog. If the opponent manages to use Defog, you'll need to take a few turns to use SR again for your Mega Lucario's sweep.

These turns you lose using SR are precious. You lose momentum when you could have been doing something else, and in some cases, if your opponent keeps up the offensive pressure, you might not even be able to set up SR at all. Furthermore, some have argued that Defog + Rapid Spin costs the same amount of turns. This is true, but this doesn't detract from the point that SR has costs. I am merely making the claim that SR cannot be taken for granted as everyone thinks it can be here.

Another reason why Moltres, Volcarona, Zapdos and Gyarados do make good counters to Lucario is that you'll generally want to use Defog and/or Rapid Spin along with them. This is especially true if you pack Pokemon like Moltres, Volcarona and Talonflame in your team. Why on earth would you use them without Defog and/or Rapid Spin? Seems kinda silly, right? It's really hard to assume that the opponent will always have SR up all the time.
The same exact logic you have shown me can also be applied to defog, but it isn't even smart to lead with defog.
1) It costs 3 turns to get rid of hazards too: One to come in, one to defog, and one to pivot out. This also isn't to mention that you might have to heal up your defogger because a lot of good defoggers (mandibuzz, zapdos) are weak to SR, meaning they're pressured to heal a lot more often if they want to tank any hits.
2) One Word: Bisharp. Bisharp can come in on a lot of defoggers, grab a defiant boost, and go to town on the opponents team. This pressure the opponent even more to keep rocks on their field, meaning their luke checks are forced to take more and more damage until they can't even check luke.

These turns you lose getting rid of SR is precious too! You lose momentum when you could be doing some other shit, and if the opponent keeps up offensive pressure, you might not be able to defog at all, meaning that rocks stay up, luke checks weakened, blah blah blah. With the correct offensive pressure and/or a bisharp, its not hard to keep rocks up or take advantage of it. I'm also making the point that it isn't as easy to get rid of SR as you say, even if defog exists.


Let's consider the final point of this post, now. That Mega Lucario will always have SD or NP in every situation. Almost everyone thinks it's the easiest thing to set up in the world, even for a fragile sweeper like Lucario! This is far from the truth. I'll credit Kairyu_Gen1 for expanding on my analysis of how hard it is for Lucario to set up SD/NP:

Kairyu's analysis here demonstrates how difficult it is for Lucario to get a boost. For the vast majority of this list, Mega Lucario has no business setting up at all either because he's so fragile, or he's vulnerable to status, or he has so many weaknesses, or both. Even for the Pokemon who he can OHKO, like Tyranitar, Heatran and Excadrill, they can prevent him from setting up! In fact, out of this list, there are only 3 Pokemon it can set up for sure on: Espeon, Scizor and Ferrothorn, since Skarmory can just Whirlwind him away. The main thing to learn from Kairyu's analysis is that it actually is really hard for Mega Lucario to set up, and there's no reason to assume it will always have SD or NP up.
I don't think you get how things "set up." There are, in my eyes, three types of "set ups."
1) The bulky kind. They take a hit thanks to great typing/bulk and boost. Sometimes they can recover and amass multiple boosts, sometimes they get multiple boosts either way. You usually need more than one to cleanly sweep, but its not always necessary.

2) The Frail kind. They cannot take a hit, but if you somehow set them up, they're monsters. They only need one free turn to wreck havoc and destroy lives, but they cannot take a single hit for their life. They tend to set up on the switch.

3) The "Cro" kind. These guys are usually mono-attackers, with the format of moves generally consisting of attack/set up/rest/sleep talk or /sub/set up/attack/attack. They're bulky and hard to stop, but they always need atleast 2 set ups to even sting anything.

So let's see which one mega luke is.
.....
Didn't take too long to guess that its #2, right? So let's use an example, paint a scenario.

Let's say that the opponent has a volcarona and a mega lucario.
You have a heatran, and the rest of your team gets completely raped by volcarona. Heatran is your only answer to volcarona.

Let's additionally say that mega lucario is in, and it is up against your Heatran. You have a gyarados in the back, but its only at 40%, and rocks are up.
You have two options right now:

1) Let heatran stay in on lucario and attack. If lucario chooses not to set up, you're dead, and now you get owned by volcarona.
2) You switch out as Lucario sets up, and rapes your team.

These are the type of situations that lucario wins in. For frail boosters, they have to put the opponent in a predicament where they don't want to sack their pokemon, but if they do, they lose against something else. Thus, they are inclined to switch into something that can answer to unboosted lucario, but get smacked around by a boosted hit instead. That's generally how lucario works. Don't confuse mega lucario with a bulky booster that takes a hit and then does its thing. Lucario isn't like that.

This is also ignoring the fact that lucario can come in on knock off, grab a +1 from justified, mega evolve, and go on a rampage from there itself! You tried to keep up offensive pressure and tried to not let it set up, but its sweeping you anyway!

I'll sum up some of what this overly long post is trying to say for the more lazy people:

1. The main reason Mega Lucario should be considered uber is due to its unpredictability
2. But unpredictable and uncounterable Pokemon are not necessarily uber. See Charizard.
3. There are a couple mistaken assumptions the Mega Lucario for uber proponents make:
3a. SR will always be up. This is false; SR grants the opponent from 1 to 3 free turns to do other things and as a result you lose momentum. Also, Defog and Rapid Spin are a lot more common this generation.
3b. Mega Lucario will always be able to use SD or NP easily. This is exaggerated and false.
I agree with #1 and #2, but charizard is not comparable to lucario at all. That's explained above
#3a. SR might be tough to set up, but its also tough to get rid of. You lose momentum and what not. SR gets pretty good distribution too, and its users (heatran, tyranitar, garchomp, lando-t) are all top tier pokemon. You're also losing momentum by getting rid of hazards, opponents can definitely take advantage of that in the same way you lose momentum to set it up.
#3b No it won't be able to set up all the time, it is false, and it isn't that hard to prevent it from setting up. But the simple fact you usually have to sack a pokemon to prevent it from setting up and sweeping you is good enough. The luke player can bring it in on a defensive pokemon you need for something else (a common scenario) and threaten a boost or open holes for the said booster to clean up.

What I've been trying to convince the reader is that this argument is not one-sided at all, and I hope this at least partially convinces you that the discussion on Mega Lucario's going to uber is more controversial than it is thought to be. He doesn't necessarily fit the offense or support characteristic because he has many counters depending on a given set. Mega Lucario is a great Pokemon, but not so great that he should automatically be considered uber materal.
All right, All right

He doesn't necessarily fit the offense or support characteristic because he has many counters depending on a given set.
See what's wrong here?

Depending on a given set
This

If one sets counters are mauled by another set, and both sets are threatening, then we have a really big problem. This is the situation with mega lucario.
You could argue that common pokemon appear that check both sets, but some of these pokemon aren't easy to fit onto teams, aren't gauranteed to even do their job (rocks could be up, defog might exist but you can't gaurantee that SR isn't up at any give time) and share common weaknesses.
The only real strong check to all sets out there is mega venusaur, and that's using your mega! That limits teambuilding severely.

I've addressed every one of your arguments in the most respectful manner that I can do so, so I hope that you too have changed your mind and can see how mega lucario is broken.

The Choice Scarf set is what was being discussed and that set never runs ExtremeSpeed. Pretty much every other set does, but the set being discussed does not.
That's wrong, we're banning genesect here, not choice scarf+genesect combo (Not that you could do that anyway). Genesect as a whole is a really good pokemon and you can't just ignore that it has access to the best priority move in the game, even if its not run on the most common set. Sure, the choice scarf set is whats being discussed, but you still can't ignore the possibility that genesect isn't scarfed. Scarfsect is like the weakest set it can run anyway.
 
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I discussed bout Genesect several pages ago regarding how it's not "broken"; well, Mega Lucario is the exactly opposite in my honest opinion.
Guessing why, obviously. Well, its typing and its power also by normal form itself, let it find a lot of chances to megaevolve, reaching 115 base speed, the same as Starmie, Raikou.. just outspeeded by Greninja, Deoxys-S (suspect), and less used Alakazam, Weavile, Tornadus-T, and obviously scarfers (but SD, Plot n Mixed got respectively Bullet Punch, Vacuum Wave n ExtremeSpeed)

The main problem of Mega Lucario is that you can't exactly know its set unless you made it boost (so it's pretty unpredictable, you may guess what set runs but you won't know this), and make it reach +2atk/satk at 355 speed can mean "GG", or at least the loss on one Pokèmon.

Losing almost necessarily one Pokèmon (sacking it or other ways) to stop it is just a valid reason to consider it as "broken". You can remember Landorus ban from BW OU? The argument was kinda this -- unpredictability -- STAB+another boost (Adaptability for ML, SheerForce+LO for Lando) -- good speed (ML got many more speed than Lando). Lucario also got amazing priorities as I said, 2/3 STAB+Adaptability.

Also, there isnt a counter for BOTH SETS. And running one counter for SD MLuke and one counter for NP MLuke is TOO much centralizing imo. Ban.
 
Problem is, when opponent will have DEOXYS-S + OFFENSIVE TEAM... you may have Excadrill, but you might have no chance for using Rapid Spin (Ghosts)...
Excadrill 2!!!HKO her with his STAB...

Definately reason for her to be in OU is Defog, but I can see only two viable Defoggers against offensive teams - Skarmory and Mandibuzz... and both can be taken down with Electric move. RESULT? Playing Deoxys-S + Ghost + Electric (for example Aegislash @ Air Balloon and Manectric Mega) is too strong in my opinion.
Well, if they're dedicating half of their team just to keep one layer of Spikes+SR on the field, they kind of deserve to keep it. You can also just switch Mandibuzz into Aegislash and Defog from there, or just spin with Excadrill who gives absolutely zero shits about Aegislash. I honestly find Deoxys-D a lot more threating, as it can stay alive to setup the hazards again if the situation calls for it, but then again, everyone on the ladder is just being dumb and using it as a slower Deoxys-S.
 
Here's my breakdown of the various threats from what I've seen on the ladder during this suspecting period. Unfortunately didn't have much time to make a proper run at getting reqs, but was able to test enough of a diversity of teams to get a decent idea.

Lucarionite: There are enough checks to either physical or special sets that it's not an especially huge strain on teambuilding to carry both. However, essentially the problem is that the percentage play usually has you end up risking sacking a mon to find out the set, and then if you have the check dealing with it. If your check on that side of the physical/special spectrum got worn down, well tough tits. So on offensive teams this kind of approach to checking either set works well, but if you're running stall and can't afford to sac a mon, well tough tits. Its weird, because in this meta offense, whether of the bulky or more frail HOish variety, tends to reign supreme, so having checks to threats and sacing mons doesn't seem completely out of the ordinary, because that's what you're doing anyway to deal with even definitely non-broken threats. But yeah, for stall its pretty tough. At the end of the day, I'm still not sure about this item, and whether or not it can definitively be called broken.

Genesect: The elephant in the room with this poke is the way volt-turn is such a dominant strategy in the current meta. For me, whenever I played opponents higher on the ladder it seemed like carrying 3 volt-turn mons was average on their teams. Once again you just have to look at the offensive nature of the current meta to find out why this is the case. The ability of mons like gene, rotom, landorus, etc, to either create favorable matchups or bring in threats for free is crucial to the success of many offensive teams and frankly just wins games. Gene's variety of sets are certainly threatening, but honestly, its the ability to wear down checks with stab u-turn and bring in teammates is clearly what puts it over the top, not the sweeping power of its sets or even its download ability. Unless the meta shifts more towards stall, I think this problem with volt-turn mons will remain, and I don't think its exclusively a problem of genesects, or a particularly good argument for banning a mon. So overall, I don't think that Genesect deserves a ban, because all of its sets are in my eyes, not broken.

Deoxys-Speed: Its frail. Its main stab move halves its sp attack power. Still, LO set is very useful as a revenge killer, and you can mix up its moveslots to get some "surprise" kos. I just don't think it ever really nets enough of an advantage with either that set or hazard lead to really call it broken in any sense.
 
Genesect: The elephant in the room with this poke is the way volt-turn is such a dominant strategy in the current meta. For me, whenever I played opponents higher on the ladder it seemed like carrying 3 volt-turn mons was average on their teams. Once again you just have to look at the offensive nature of the current meta to find out why this is the case. The ability of mons like gene, rotom, landorus, etc, to either create favorable matchups or bring in threats for free is crucial to the success of many offensive teams and frankly just wins games. Gene's variety of sets are certainly threatening, but honestly, its the ability to wear down checks with stab u-turn and bring in teammates is clearly what puts it over the top, not the sweeping power of its sets or even its download ability. Unless the meta shifts more towards stall, I think this problem with volt-turn mons will remain, and I don't think its exclusively a problem of genesects, or a particularly good argument for banning a mon. So overall, I don't think that Genesect deserves a ban, because all of its sets are in my eyes, not broken
Do you think Volt-Turning would go down if Gene was banned? I mean, when Blaziken was on the ladder I saw heaps of Baton Pass teams. He's gone now I don't see many. If in gen 5 we banned Politoad for example, we would've seen less rain teams. I think the reason Volt-Turning is so popular is mostly due to Genesect.
 
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