Disaster Area
formerly Piexplode
This thread is simply to work out the average damage to jynx in jynx vs alakazam, assuming Alakazam leads with Thunder Wave and then spams Stoss, and Jynx spams LK. After that I'll do what happens when Jynx uses Blizzard once and then spams LK. I'm ignoring the probably of 255s here since the effect is fairly negligible.
First Scenario:
HP Lost * Probablity
0 * 3/4 * 3/4 = 0
100 * 7/16 * 9/16 = 24.61
200 * 7/16^2 * 9/16 = 21.53
300 * 7/16^3 * 9/16 = 14.13
393 * [1-9/16* (7/16^3+7/16^2+7/16+1)] = 14.40
Total = 74.67 = ~75HP is your 'expected' value of HP loss when you spam LK versus lead alakazam.
Second Scenario:
Part 1: Probability of a freeze
9/100*(3/4+3/16+3/64+3/256)=27/100*(1+4+16+64/256)=85*27/25600=8.96%.. i.e. it's pretty much a lossless assumption to assume 9% chance of a freeze (accuracy * frz chance basically).
Part 2: Assuming you use blizzard successfully the first time, HP Loss in the 91% scenarios where you fail to freeze, to find the average HP loss, on the basic assumption that Alakazam doesn't recover at all [flawed - but this is amended later].
100 * 3/4 * 3/4 = 56.25
200 * 7/16 * 9/16 = 49.22
300 * 7/16^2 * 9/16 = 32.30
393 * [1-9/16* (7/16^2+7/16+1)] = 32.91
Total = 170.68 = ~171HP expected value of loss of using Blizzard then spamming LK, where blizzard is used successfully on the first hit.
Part 3: Assume same + 1 FP
200 * 3/4 * 3/4 = 112.5
300 * 7/16 * 9/16 = 73.83
393 * [1-9/16* (7/16+1)] = 75.22
Total=261.55
Part 4: Assume same + 2 FPs
300 * 3/4 * 3/4 = 168.75
393 * 7/16 = 171.94
Total=340.69
Part 5: Assume same + 3 FPs
Total = RIP Jynx 393
In the 18.55% chance that you crit then Alakazam will typically recover, so assuming it does that, then you can weight the value of Blizzard then LK with a 81.45% value and of not using Blizzard with a 18.55% value, i.e. when using one blizzard your expected HP Loss = 74.67 * 0.1855 * 0.9 + (1-[0.1855 * 0.9]) * 3 * [170.68/4 + 261.55/16 + 340.69/256 + 393/(256*3)]=164.56HP ~ 165HP. So with an extra Blizzard thrown in, you risk taking on average 90HP (nearly 1 seismic toss) of extra damage for a ~9% chance to freeze.
First Scenario:
HP Lost * Probablity
0 * 3/4 * 3/4 = 0
100 * 7/16 * 9/16 = 24.61
200 * 7/16^2 * 9/16 = 21.53
300 * 7/16^3 * 9/16 = 14.13
393 * [1-9/16* (7/16^3+7/16^2+7/16+1)] = 14.40
Total = 74.67 = ~75HP is your 'expected' value of HP loss when you spam LK versus lead alakazam.
Second Scenario:
Part 1: Probability of a freeze
9/100*(3/4+3/16+3/64+3/256)=27/100*(1+4+16+64/256)=85*27/25600=8.96%.. i.e. it's pretty much a lossless assumption to assume 9% chance of a freeze (accuracy * frz chance basically).
Part 2: Assuming you use blizzard successfully the first time, HP Loss in the 91% scenarios where you fail to freeze, to find the average HP loss, on the basic assumption that Alakazam doesn't recover at all [flawed - but this is amended later].
100 * 3/4 * 3/4 = 56.25
200 * 7/16 * 9/16 = 49.22
300 * 7/16^2 * 9/16 = 32.30
393 * [1-9/16* (7/16^2+7/16+1)] = 32.91
Total = 170.68 = ~171HP expected value of loss of using Blizzard then spamming LK, where blizzard is used successfully on the first hit.
Part 3: Assume same + 1 FP
200 * 3/4 * 3/4 = 112.5
300 * 7/16 * 9/16 = 73.83
393 * [1-9/16* (7/16+1)] = 75.22
Total=261.55
Part 4: Assume same + 2 FPs
300 * 3/4 * 3/4 = 168.75
393 * 7/16 = 171.94
Total=340.69
Part 5: Assume same + 3 FPs
Total = RIP Jynx 393
In the 18.55% chance that you crit then Alakazam will typically recover, so assuming it does that, then you can weight the value of Blizzard then LK with a 81.45% value and of not using Blizzard with a 18.55% value, i.e. when using one blizzard your expected HP Loss = 74.67 * 0.1855 * 0.9 + (1-[0.1855 * 0.9]) * 3 * [170.68/4 + 261.55/16 + 340.69/256 + 393/(256*3)]=164.56HP ~ 165HP. So with an extra Blizzard thrown in, you risk taking on average 90HP (nearly 1 seismic toss) of extra damage for a ~9% chance to freeze.