Recent content by The Scientist

Codraroll, this thread lost all scientific/statistical viability a long time ago. I see no point in the thread at this point for the sake of data collection since so few people are following the established protocol necessary to make the data useful. However, it could be turned around if someone...

Melochi, I used the R statistical software to simulate binomial distributions for various probabilities (p=10/4096, p=8/4096, etc.). These distributions were based on n = 1,000,000 trials for different numbers of encounters. In other words, the simulated probability of encountering a shiny over...

kuro asuka, the suggestion is that there are 12 "active" patches, resulting in only 12 possible patches that can result in an encounter at any given second. Furthermore, one of these patches results in a shiny encounter. Is this correct? If this is true, then wouldn't the shiny encounter rate...

Question for those who have accidentally fainted or run from a shiny on XY/ORAS. Does the shiny dex entry still show up after the battle? In other words, can you view the shiny form in your Pokedex even without having captured it? Thanks!

I'm sorry, Space Dandy, I'm not familiar with the concept of formals. Can you elaborate on what you had in mind? Jikuumoogle, I obtained my all my friends in a short period of time before conducting the trials in order to have all friend safari Pokemon available. However, these tests were...

Below are results from 20 trials with tipping outside of the friend safari (shiny charm obtained). I tipped $1000 five times to the story teller in the Pokemon Center in Kiloude City before each trial. The trials took a lot longer than they should have since I've been traveling and so I could...

Just running away, never fainting. I'm planning on posting some results from tipping maybe next week, so stay tuned.

I've been away the last three months, but I'm glad to see the thread did not die. :) Addressing some of the questions... nocturne24- I have not noticed whether one slot is more frequently a shiny than the other slots. In fact, it looked evenly dispersed among the three slots. Non-guest 31415-...

Sorry, I've been busy lately. However, the bot is still going and I've updated the sheet. It's at ~167,000 encounters and 311 shinies. The average #encounters per shiny is currently at 536 with a standard deviation of 554. I only went to 100 shinies during the tipping trials. More would have...

Seagul, can you expand on your thoughts? Are you agreeing with me about the originally quoted post was wrong, or are you disagreeing with me? If you'll read further down on that page, what I meant was there shouldn't be a mix of data collection methods. For example, you should not have some...

OK, I won't keep you waiting. I transcribed my data to a Google Spreadsheet, and I'll update it now and then. I had to organize it a little oddly due to the way Google Spreadsheet makes the charts...

Hi Kyria, Thanks for the thoughts. I'm glad you found the data useful. Let me address some of your questions. 1) I agree that often shinies are caught soon after another. It's happened several times that I went 1000+ encounters without seeing a shiny, then after finally finding a shiny, I get...

Big thanks, NixHex and Fletchling . It's more than enough thanks to know that someone has found the data useful. Fletchling, so if what you saying is true, would you predict that different safaris have different shiny rates? I'm certainly open to hearing ideas about what could affect the shiny...

Good news everyone. I'm now very confident that the friend safari shiny rate is 8/4096, or 1/512. To determine the shiny rate, I started off by assuming the data would have a binomial distribution because as a discrete distribution, it approximates the probability of a yes/no event occurring in...

I can add that information, although another user here tested the shiny rate in the friend safari, and found there is no difference between a game with the shiny charm and a game without. They did 15,000 encounters per game and concluded the shiny charm had no effect. While the data set is...