Accuracy v. Power

[MicfiJasan]

I'm bringing forward a more mathematical observation to this discussion, warning you guys now.

When deciding between two moves I generally like to ask myself: on average, how many times to I have to click this move to secure a KO? With a 100% accurate move like Surf, the answer is simple: if it kills something in 3 hits, you click Surf 3 times, if its an OHKO, 1 time, etc. Now when looking at Hydro Pump, the answer is a little different, since now we have to factor in the chance of one (or more) miss(es). I've discovered that on average, a Hydro Pump that OHKOs if it hits takes an average of 1.25 clicks to KO the opponent, or, if we consider accuracy as a fraction of 1, the inverse of the accuracy, since 0.8^(-1)=1.25. When it takes more than 1 hit, you multiply the result of the OHKO by the number of hits you need. So, for a 2HKO you need 2*1.25=2.5 clicks to KO on average, 3 is 3.75, so on and so forth.

Let's assume Hydro Pump always KOs in one less hit than Surf. Obviously this isn't always the case but it makes explaining this part a little easier. This would mean that Hydro Pump is generally better unless Hydro Pump has to hit 4 times (which given that it is likely used with rain means this situation is rare), or when Surf OHKOs (since you have to click a move at least once to kill with it). That said, when this is taken across all of OU there will likely be cases where both Hydro Pump and Surf would be favorable over the other, so ultimately the "correct" choice takes advantage of the more common case.

The case with Hydro Pump and Surf can also be applied to other types with adjusted accuracies but similar power differences, like Flamethrower and Fire Blast, or Aura Sphere (not HP Fighting) and Focus Blast. Just change the clicks to account for the accuracy change (about 1.18 for Fire Blast or 1.43 for Focus Blast).

 

[alexwolf]

In general i hate moves with less than 80% moves and i almost never use them, including Focus Blast (the main reason i stay away from Pokemon that rely a lot on it such as Alakazam, Gengar, and Reuniclus). I also rarely use inaccurate moves on the sweepers that i plan to end the game with because missing on an otherwise clean sweep and even getting counter-sweeped is the worst thing ever. Finally, whenever i use inaccurate moves (i consider inaccurate to be 80-90%, everything below is unreliable as fuck and everything above is fine) i don't put too many of them on the same team if i have the option. For example if i use both Specs Politoed and LO Starmie on my team i am not going to put Hydro Pump in both of them as this is just begging to miss. Instead i put Surf in one of the two Pokemon or even both Surf and Hydro Pump on a single set (Politoed) if any of the Pokemon can afford it.

 

[Spinda]

Maybe on a boosting sweeper you don't want to double up on coverage (like carrying Surf and Hydro Pump on CM Keldeo), but on a lot of Choiced Pokemon it's standard practice. Scarf Salamence carries both Dragon Claw and Outrage when you need to hit something with Dragon STAB but can't afford to lock yourself in. Keldeo uses Surf when Hydro Pump can't afford to miss and when she's sweeping a weakened team.

I can't stand running scarf keldeo without hp electric, icy wind, secret sword and water stab though, same for politoed, moves like surf/ice beam/focus blast/hp grass/encore/Perish song are already fighting for a slot

 

[Royal Flush]

To be honest I was talking about the goals of your team: for example, if you are using Starmie mainly for opening holes on the defensive cores of the opponent, then I'd prefer Surf 90% of the time. On the other hand, if ScarfTtar can be annoying to the team, I'd prefer Hydro Pump since it has a good chance to OHKO factoring rocks (not a great example since it creates crunch/pursuit mindgames but you get the idea).

 

[Jukain]

I can't stand running scarf keldeo without hp electric, icy wind, secret sword and water stab though, same for politoed, moves like surf/ice beam/focus blast/hp grass/encore/Perish song are already fighting for a slot

I don't think that's the case at all. Scarf HP Electric is weak and setup fodder. Just run HP Ice for Dragons, and boom, your double STAB. On Politoed, I run Hydro Pump / Scald / Ice Beam / Encore. Focus Blast sucks, it barely does anything to its targets, is setup fodder, misses all the fucking time. Scald is powerful and has that burn chance. Hydro Pump I go for when I know I have a free shot -- otherwise it's just not worth the chance of losing Politoed.

In general, it really depends on the Pokemon. I'm a big fan of running double STAB on Water-types, as Hydro Pump misses suck and Surf is usually powerful enough. Honestly I'd replace Hydro Pump first -- if I really need Hydro Pump to KO something that Surf doesn't, I'll run something better to deal with the threat. I have good luck with Focus Blast in general so I tend to run it -- no real alternative unless I can go mixed with like Tornadus and run Superpower (which I do). Stone Edge is unavoidable, Fire Blast is generally unavoidable, etc.

Overall I prefer accuracy over power but it's on a mon-by-mon basis.

 

[Porii Sames]

To diverge on the textbook of chance that's been brought up in this thread...

I used a sand team with Dual Screens once (note: it didn't rely on Dual Screens, it just happened to have them on there) and I used a Terrakion with Leftovers. SD/Polish/CC/Rock Slide. Now granted, the meta was a LOT different back then, but bear with me.

It was nice being able to Rock Slide knowing that it'll hit twice (right?) as much as Stone Edge and that it flinched every now and then. Also, since you had Sand + Screens + Leftovers, having that reliability was nice. Plus you could still CC something if you really needed a "nuke".

But off of that subject; I'd say that having accuracy over power is cool when you're more defensively inclined; it wouldn't shock me to see a defensive CM Reun with HP Fighting (or HP something) over Focus Blast, whereas I wouldn't dream of doing that on my Alakazam set.

As a side note, I do run Flamethrower>Fire Blast on my defensive Tales normally, just to be on the safe side (for any of you that know me or have seen me play very much, I'm a VERY cautious stall player, so it's probably that) and, as CO5ta said, it's nice to just be safe when the team you're playing is the definition of safe.

 

[Spinda]

I don't think that's the case at all. Scarf HP Electric is weak and setup fodder. Just run HP Ice for Dragons, and boom, your double STAB. On Politoed, I run Hydro Pump / Scald / Ice Beam / Encore. Focus Blast sucks, it barely does anything to its targets, is setup fodder, misses all the fucking time. Scald is powerful and has that burn chance. Hydro Pump I go for when I know I have a free shot -- otherwise it's just not worth the chance of losing Politoed.

In general, it really depends on the Pokemon. I'm a big fan of running double STAB on Water-types, as Hydro Pump misses suck and Surf is usually powerful enough. Honestly I'd replace Hydro Pump first -- if I really need Hydro Pump to KO something that Surf doesn't, I'll run something better to deal with the threat. I have good luck with Focus Blast in general so I tend to run it -- no real alternative unless I can go mixed with like Tornadus and run Superpower (which I do). Stone Edge is unavoidable, Fire Blast is generally unavoidable, etc.

Overall I prefer accuracy over power but it's on a mon-by-mon basis.

I really like being able to revenge both dragons and gyarados with keldeo, but I guess it's preference.

 

[Mulan15262]

I view 80% as the lowest accuracy I will use because any lower, and it misses too much. However, if its accuracy is 80% or higher, I use the higher power move (Stone Edge over Rock Slide, Hydro Pump over Surf, Fire Blast over Flamethrower). However, I won't use anything with an power below 75. So I use neither Focus Blast nor HP Fighting, but Aura Sphere (if it gets it), Secret Sword (if it gets it), or coverage moves of other types.

 

[Matthew]

120 * .85 * 2 Fire Blast
versus
95 * 2 Flamethrower

in the end this results in the average damage of Fire Blast done over two turns is 204, where the average damage done by Flamethrower is equal to 190.

However that's not how things work, but generally speaking Fire Blast's BP is 102 where Flamethrower's BP is still 95. I believe it was X-Act who said that BP is more important than strength so those extra seven BP do actually make a huge difference. The math sticks. Three times in a row:
Fire Blast: 306
Flamethrower: 285

In reality I normally go for the stronger move. The chance to miss might end the game, but the chance to net those valuable O/2HKOes is amazing.

EDIT:

But I never run Hydro Pump. Even though it can net OHKOes with a specs set it is statistically the same as running Surf.

Factoring in the miss rate and everything Hydro Pump's BP is about 96, which is one more than Surf. Then taking into account that Surf has more PP than Hydro Pump (by a lot) you are faced with this situation where it is basically a non-choice between picking Surf over Hydro Pump.

 

[kirballs1]

I usually run Acc over power.Some pokemon can afford to gamble power for acc.So I don't see either one being more important over the other.You need to find a balanced within your team.For Example TTAR with Fireblast needs the power over acc.Since after a turn they can just switch.Or Hydropump on Keldeo over surf.Keldeo needs the power to threaten everything including switches(Some pokemon like Hip over power so you most likely see surf over Hydropump.It's just how I see the risk and reward.You can't play to safepowdown need to be 1HKO threatened).Then Pokemon like Starmie benefit on accuracy or too risky.

 

[sparktrain]

I usually multiply the accuracy of the move by the base power to decide which move is worth running.

Example 1:
Focus Blast: 120 x 70% = 84
Aura Sphere: 90 x 100% = 90
HP Fighting: 70 x 100% = 70

Looking at these results, Aura Sphere deals the most damage on average, but suffers from low distribution. Still, mons like Alakazam and Reuniclus choose Focus Blast over HP Fighting just because the potential extra power is just so nice, and these calcs agree. While it's annoying that Focus Blast only has a 49% chance of hitting twice in a row, on average you will be dishing out more damage per hit. Missing one or more Focus Blasts has lost us all our fair share of games, but the on the same note the extra power has probably helped us out many times when a HP Fighting just won't get the job done. HP Fighting also has the drawback of forcing 30 Speed IVs, causing you to lose to mons you would've otherwise speed tied.

Example 2:
Waterfall: 80 x 100% = 80
Aqua Tail: 90 x 90% = 81

Sometimes the difference is just too minuscule to matter much, and while this calc shows that Aqua Tail does more on average, I'd rather not have a 10% chance to miss. It's only a ten BP difference, anyway, and I'm not sure if mons like Gyarados miss out on any key KOs by using Waterfall in place of Aqua Tail.

I'd say that my my general preference is to stick to the norms, such as Fire Blast>Flamethrower, Thunderbolt>Thunder, Ice Beam>Blizzard, Stone Miss>RockSlide etc... seeing as their damage output is larger on average.

 

[Emmy2]

I go for accuracy over power most of the time, unless I have a way to boost accuracy. Hone claws + a mixed set/baton pass with some of these powerful/inaccurate moves is ridiculous.

Also, I'm kinda biased because I usually run gimmick or monotype teams, but I'm not even sure why certain things necessarily *need* a fighting type move. If my only options are focus miss or hp fighting, on something that has a decent pool of special moves to choose from (such as Alakazam or Gengar), I'd rather run energy ball/giga drain for the surprise kill on something like a Gastrodon who is neutral at worst to everything on the standard set, or trick a choice specs/black sludge onto something that can't really use it, etc.

 

[magic123]

I really like being able to revenge both dragons and gyarados with keldeo, but I guess it's preference.

To clearify,both HP electric and Icy Wind are weak as heck.The accuracy of Icy Wind is not worth it and Hydro Pump is very unreliable for lategame sweeping.I once missed 2 Icy Winds and 2 Hydro Pumps on the same Gliscor!HP Electric cant OHKO Gyarados always and Icy Wind can't KO some Dragons even with Stealth Rock.It also can't KO Breloom after Stealth Rock and 1 Round of Life orb or KO Landorus-t or Gliscor.Here:

252 SpA Keldeo Hidden Power Electric vs. 88 HP / 0 SpD Gyarados: 304-360 (86.11 - 101.98%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO

252 SpA Keldeo Hidden Power Ice vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Garchomp: 348-412 (97.2 - 115.08%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock

252 SpA Keldeo Icy Wind vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Garchomp: 276-328 (77.09 - 91.62%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 SpA Keldeo Hidden Power Ice vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Dragonite: 304-360 (94.11 - 111.45%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock

252 SpA Keldeo Icy Wind vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Dragonite: 240-284 (74.3 - 87.92%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 SpA Keldeo Hidden Power Ice vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Gliscor: 384-456 (108.47 - 128.81%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252 SpA Keldeo Icy Wind vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Gliscor: 304-360 (85.87 - 101.69%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO

252 SpA Keldeo Hidden Power Ice vs. 200 HP / 0 SpD Landorus-T: 368-436 (99.72 - 118.15%) -- 93.75% chance to OHKO

252 SpA Keldeo Icy Wind vs. 200 HP / 0 SpD Landorus-T: 292-344 (79.13 - 93.22%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Back to the general discussion,I feel that Surf is better on Scarf Keldeo for good lategame sweeps and Hydro Pump is better on Hit-and-run Keldeos like Specs Keldeo (with Hydro it can 2HKO Blissey in rain while with Surf it can't).

 

[Halcyon.]

Excuse me...you can't do half the calcs with Stealth Rock and half the ones without just to prove your point...

 

[effyouzion]

I don't like relying on inaccurate moves, but at the same time I'll lead with Thundy-T and use thunder without rain up if it puts me at an advantage. 70% accurate means the odds are pretty heavily in your favor even if it doesn't always feel like it.

 

[Jukain]

I don't like relying on inaccurate moves, but at the same time I'll lead with Thundy-T and use thunder without rain up if it puts me at an advantage. 70% accurate means the odds are pretty heavily in your favor even if it doesn't always feel like it.

effyouzion makes a good point. For example, I have a couple teams with Thunder Jirachi -- SubCM/SDef/whatever. Jirachi is generally bulky enough to take a hit, and the paralysis chance offered by Thunder is so great that unless I'm in sun it's possible to sweep with Jirachi even without rain up.

The choice between accuracy and power is essentially determined by the costs and benefits of running the less accurate moves. Sleep Powder's effect is sleep, which can be considered on the same level as an attacking move in my opinion, considering that for the 25% chance of it not hitting there is a 75% chance that something is setup fodder. This is most relevant on Venusaur. Sleep Powder is awesome on SubSeed Venusaur, for example, who can run HP Fire to wreck Ferrothorn and even Celebi with the sun boost. The protection granted by Substitute and the specially defensive spread make me feel much more free to use the unreliable move. Sleep moves are unique in this aspect though due to the fact that the effects they grant often cannot be done better by another move. Except in the cases of Smeargle, Amoonguss, and Breloom -- aka the only viable OU Spore users -- sleep moves have an accuracy drawback. Hypnosis isn't uncommon on defensive Politoed and Ninetales. Since these Pokemon are prone to forcing switches in being weather inducers (forcing in/out opposing weather inducers), it is not unreasonable to run even a 60% accurate move due to the effects of sleep. However, you don't see them running the move all the time because they are unreliable. It's almost a 50/50 whether or not Hypnosis hits, and that's not something you always want to bank on when there are other moves fighting for slots.

The choice also depends on the power of the Pokemon in question. For example, recently I've taken to running Psychic on a good amount of my Scarf Politoed simply because Toxicroak is a massive bitch to some of my teams. Now, otherwise I would be running double STAB -- I'm surely not forgoing Encore for the setup opportunities (literally it saves games) or Ice Beam to nail Dragons, especially the Lati twins. I finally have a choice between Surf and Hydro Pump -- Hydro Pump unfortunately is almost essential because Scarf Politoed is not all that strong. Surf does not provide enough power to get KOs. It sucks if Politoed has to clean up late-game and to bank on Hydro Pump, but in the early- to mid-game it's beyond essential.

These strictly mathematical approaches (like average clicks to kill) involve faulty logic in my opinion because often you only get a chance to hit one time, and decimal numbers are useless. While one option might seem "better" mathematically, I'd first consider the KOs missed by running the less powerful move and the KOs gained by running the more powerful move. I'd consider whether it might be possible to fit some Spikes in or something, in which case the less powerful move is a lot more justifiable. For example, with Stealth Rock and 3 layers of Spikes possible with my team setup, I could make an effort to get them up and feasibly run Fiery Dance on Volcarona instead of its more inaccurate cousin, Fire Blast. However, Fire Blast is so much more powerful and effective in practice, not only because of the significantly higher Base Power with the sun boost attached but also because my sun team, unless it has Forretress (unlikely if it's very offensive), will almost definitely lack Spikes, as sun teams are strapped for teamslots.

In conclusion, the question of accuracy versus power is a lot more in-depth to solve from my experience than what I'm seeing in this thread. The tangible benefits of running certain inaccurate moves are often high, but it's always important to consider all of the risks incurred by doing so.