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Completely Normal Open Setup 8p NOC - Game Over
- Thread starter Blue_Tornado
- Start date
Votecount 2.2
Walrein (1): THE_IRON_KENYAN
LightWolf (1): zorbees
Aura Guardian (1): Daenym
Not Voting (4): Aura Guardian LightWolf Houndoomsday Walrein
Day 2 ends in 57 hours!
Walrein (1): THE_IRON_KENYAN
LightWolf (1): zorbees
Aura Guardian (1): Daenym
Not Voting (4): Aura Guardian LightWolf Houndoomsday Walrein
Day 2 ends in 57 hours!
While I applaud the effort here, and clearly you're attempting to make a Townish contribution, it hardly seems necessary to point this out when we're still a couple cycles away from a lylo situation. But dw, I won't hold it against you .
Regarding your reads, though. You defend them as having "solid logic", but I would almost say they're too obvious. Calling me townish is practically a bandwagon at this point (albeit a flattering one).
Calling LW town, because of his support for miller claiming, is pretty much in the same vein as everyone's reasoning for why most reads of me are town. THAT SAID, LW didn't give his specifics at the time, he merely said "miller should claim", after it was more or less established that the miller claiming was an objectively good play. Since then, LW has still only sort of alluded to what exactly it was (and, I bet if I asked for something more specific, he'll say "oh it's gone and I don't remember what I did"!).
Your only other read at the time was on Walrein, and you pretty much just rehashed my reasoning for being on him. Now that can be in part because my reasons for suspecting Walrein are good, but you certainly took the easy road. Ofc now that I'm slightly backed off of Walrein, due to Yeti's assessment, you're still focused on him. Is that determined townie, or simply a mafioso trying to swing me back to a mislynch now that the cop is gone, and you can't be inspected, regardless of how aggressive your play is?
My vote on Aura Guardian still stands for now. But I'm beginning to see some more merit to the idea of AG/TIK scumteam, and even possibly LW/TIK scumteam?
TIK, feel free to post thoughts on the rest of the players itg. Bonus points if said thoughts haven't already been expressed by other players.
I'll probably work on thoughts for other people in the morning.
On a side note, however, I wish the activity level itg felt... higher. With a small playerlist of relatively good players, I'm kind of disappointed everyone isn't contributing more. >:(
Oh, and I know TIK's reply to the first bit of my previous post will be "I wanted to say it before I died!", but I guess it's more the fact that I kind of think of that as a somewhat obvious course of action at that point in the game is why I don't think it's necessary. Instead, it gives him a way to make an obvtown contribution ("this is objectively the best thing to do in this scenario") despite the fact that we may never get to said scenario. Idk, just irks me.
THE_IRON_...KENYAN?
Banned deucer.
On a side note, however, I wish the activity level itg felt... higher. With a small playerlist of relatively good players, I'm kind of disappointed everyone isn't contributing more.
Could be waning interest. That happens a lot in forum nocs. I know its kinda happening to me
I dont think a lot of the players on the list are hardcore noc players like you would find on epicmafia.com or more relevantly mafiascum.com, where it seems like the main hobby of a lot of people on that website is to keep up a level of enthusiasm necessary to play long NOC games.
Daenym, I'm not sure if you just agree with Yeti's thinking, but I think it bears mentioning the obvious that Yeti's opinions aren't foolproof.
In regards to TIK's opinion on Lightwolf, I don't think asking for clarification on a role necessarily makes him town. Especially when his contributions besides that are practically nil.
I think it's a bit odd that TIK didn't really respond to Daenym's accusations. Almost seems as if he is trying to wait until the topic shifts to something or someone else.
In regards to feeling Daenym is town, while I do feel right now it is likely he is town, we have to be aware that if he leads a mislynch, it is possible he is scum. When the activity level in the game is as low as it's been recently, being the one who creates discussion can give that person the power to steer the discussion in the direction that they know to be wrong. I'm not saying Daenym is scum, but I'm certainly not discounting it as a possibility yet.
Regarding activity, I almost wonder if it is a time zone or similar issue. I know that often times when I am around, there hasn't been much activity in the thread, and then I go to bed and activity spikes. This has led me to posting about once every 24 hours, because I don't often have reason to post more when nothing new develops.
Still, it is disappointing that Day 2 has started and 3 of the players haven't posted at all today, and Walrein has barely posted anything.
In regards to TIK's opinion on Lightwolf, I don't think asking for clarification on a role necessarily makes him town. Especially when his contributions besides that are practically nil.
I think it's a bit odd that TIK didn't really respond to Daenym's accusations. Almost seems as if he is trying to wait until the topic shifts to something or someone else.
In regards to feeling Daenym is town, while I do feel right now it is likely he is town, we have to be aware that if he leads a mislynch, it is possible he is scum. When the activity level in the game is as low as it's been recently, being the one who creates discussion can give that person the power to steer the discussion in the direction that they know to be wrong. I'm not saying Daenym is scum, but I'm certainly not discounting it as a possibility yet.
Regarding activity, I almost wonder if it is a time zone or similar issue. I know that often times when I am around, there hasn't been much activity in the thread, and then I go to bed and activity spikes. This has led me to posting about once every 24 hours, because I don't often have reason to post more when nothing new develops.
Still, it is disappointing that Day 2 has started and 3 of the players haven't posted at all today, and Walrein has barely posted anything.
Ok, lots of suspicion on me ... and others
Ok, I think the suspicion on me is my incoherence early on (I think the headache might have been due to a combined lack of sleep and lots of caffeine... early morning classes) and my recent silence - but posting constantly is not as possible as I'd hoped with my class schedule. As such, the best I can do to defend myself, I guess, is by posting with a *finally* clear head.
I'm just gonna poke a hornet's nest here and see what happens.
Page 1: Walrein argues for Lynch over No Lynch. Given that this is a standard of Smogon NOC, I see no reason to hold this against him.
Page 2: more Lynch > NL, because smaller pool for inspector.
Page 3: aim for the 50% wincon over waiting, FoS's TIK and zorbees. Argues against EpicMafia's optimal strategy b/c smogon has different dynamics... This seems a little weird.
Page 4: Argues for miller claiming, claims it was his idea (later says this was a joke, which is believable)
Page 5: Rebuts my headache-FoS-es, claims that the post mentioned above was a joke, calls Daenym townie
Page 6: Says he skimmed, which is why a page 5 post parroted Daenym; calls out zorbees who immediately calls out Walrein in turn. In this page, he's accused a lot, and
Page 7: he barely responds at all to the accusations. Like, one post defending his favoring L over NL
I think he's been flying under the radar, and posting mainly to maintain appearances. Vote Walrein.
Ok, I think the suspicion on me is my incoherence early on (I think the headache might have been due to a combined lack of sleep and lots of caffeine... early morning classes) and my recent silence - but posting constantly is not as possible as I'd hoped with my class schedule. As such, the best I can do to defend myself, I guess, is by posting with a *finally* clear head.
I'm just gonna poke a hornet's nest here and see what happens.
Page 1: Walrein argues for Lynch over No Lynch. Given that this is a standard of Smogon NOC, I see no reason to hold this against him.
Page 2: more Lynch > NL, because smaller pool for inspector.
Page 3: aim for the 50% wincon over waiting, FoS's TIK and zorbees. Argues against EpicMafia's optimal strategy b/c smogon has different dynamics... This seems a little weird.
Page 4: Argues for miller claiming, claims it was his idea (later says this was a joke, which is believable)
Page 5: Rebuts my headache-FoS-es, claims that the post mentioned above was a joke, calls Daenym townie
Page 6: Says he skimmed, which is why a page 5 post parroted Daenym; calls out zorbees who immediately calls out Walrein in turn. In this page, he's accused a lot, and
Page 7: he barely responds at all to the accusations. Like, one post defending his favoring L over NL
I think he's been flying under the radar, and posting mainly to maintain appearances. Vote Walrein.
alright, ill throw in a few thoughts
so daenym had thought that TIK had posted weird advice that may not come to fruition- i just wanted a couple other players thoughts on the content of the post- is it fairly safe sound logic, or is it just poor/mediocre advice?
ag didnt point out much but walrein is playing scummy, but people have already pointed that out, so im not sure what he is contributing to the discussion. honestly still thinking he is playing a little poor for AG standards
anyone have any thoughts on why yeti was killed? was he honing in on mafia, or was it just a rand/kill on a good villager by mafia?
so daenym had thought that TIK had posted weird advice that may not come to fruition- i just wanted a couple other players thoughts on the content of the post- is it fairly safe sound logic, or is it just poor/mediocre advice?
ag didnt point out much but walrein is playing scummy, but people have already pointed that out, so im not sure what he is contributing to the discussion. honestly still thinking he is playing a little poor for AG standards
anyone have any thoughts on why yeti was killed? was he honing in on mafia, or was it just a rand/kill on a good villager by mafia?
Votecount 2.3
Walrein (2): THE_IRON_KENYAN Aura Guardian
LightWolf (1): zorbees
Aura Guardian (1): Daenym
Not Voting (3): LightWolf Houndoomsday Walrein
Day 2 ends in 36 hours!
Walrein (2): THE_IRON_KENYAN Aura Guardian
LightWolf (1): zorbees
Aura Guardian (1): Daenym
Not Voting (3): LightWolf Houndoomsday Walrein
Day 2 ends in 36 hours!
Acklow
I am always tired. Don't bother me.
smh...
i apologize to yeti for any emotional scaring that may have occurred because of my misrepresentation of her gender
First bit: I know her reads could be wrong, but it's mainly that they make sense to me. The Scumrein thing particularly was something that had been nagging me, since I'm pretty sure I always thing Walrein is scummy. As far as TIK reads, I think I supported why I thought her read had merit pretty sufficiently, and TIK hasn't made any effort since then to respond to the mess of things I said regarding him, as you pointed out.
If someone else has anything they feel is significant in terms of a lynch target, I'm all ears. I feel like, due to the "Daenym is probably town" mentality, plus the fact that I check the thread more than once a day, I'm kind of unintentionally taking the reins a bit more than I had intended :/
Some quick things regarding Houndoom's post: What zorbees said about TIK's logic is more or less what I felt. It's correct, but it's nothing that an intelligent player wouldn't figure out. It's the fact that he's pointing out obvtown moves that bothers me, not any faulty logic.
And as far as why Yeti was killed... I could make a few guesses, but it hardly matters.
BACK TO THINGS!
Thanks to BT's recent votecount, we can see that users TIK and AG are both voting Walrein. This is either a daring play by the scum, or else it's the first piece of evidence in favor of one of the two of them being town. While I can't say anything regarding TIK, AG as mafia would know better than to so clearly draw the lines. Unfortunately, it doesn't particularly help figure out which is the scum.
On the subject of other users, LightWolf has yet to post during Day 2. Some thoughts, please.
zorbees I have no complaints with atm. Like I said to AG, I would prefer people stay at least mildly suspicious of me. It encourages everyone to form their opinions without just agreeing with what I've said.
Walrein making a sizable post would be appreciated.
Houndoom I still feel noobtown, so he's either a mafioso that is playing me completely, or legit. Try to keep up ;/
For our esteemed host, I guess I'm asking for more time again. If activity is going to be in the toilet, then we're either going to need the time to get a lynch, or the subs to speed things along. Subs would be unfortunate, tho, because this playerlist SHOULD be awesome, in theory.
And finally, unvote, vote THE_IRON_KENYAN. This is by no means indicative of my AG suspicions lessening. It's just that TIK's contributions are highly suspicious, and then he completely ignored everything about him in my post and only commented on my activity complaint.
If he happened to get to L-1 or L-2, I wouldn't complain. Let's get some real pressure, guys.
I'd love to make a massive tl;dr with my thoughts but schoolwork has punched me down a flight of stairs, so for now I'll say that I agree with Daenym's assessment of TIK and have been a bit wary of him since early D1 (fairly certain I've posted about it in the past).
Regarding possible scumteams, I have this weird gut feeling that TIK and zorbees are a viable scumteam. I haven't actually analyzed their relationship to back up this claim, but my gut has a pretty good track record IMHO
Regarding possible scumteams, I have this weird gut feeling that TIK and zorbees are a viable scumteam. I haven't actually analyzed their relationship to back up this claim, but my gut has a pretty good track record IMHO
Well it's time to get serious folks, I will now go through every post, and comment on anything I find interesting, then make a vote, wooooooo. Then I expect a blind bandwagon, OR ELSE.
TIK tries to spark discussion, via deciding on nl or rl... Good because discussion, bad because it kinda wasted time since both sides were reasonable, and I doubt anyone actually wanted a day 1 rl so it was also fairly meaningless.
hdd then mixes up some numbers, not really a hint at anything, math is really no indicator of scumness.
AG votes TIK for a reasoning similar to the one presented above, no real tell though, since TIK is an easy picking at this point, and his logic makes sense though is hardly rewarding.
zorbees reasons against trying to throw votes around because nobody would be afraid, well it sure as hell beats discussing whether NL is a scum tell or not...
TIK's logic makes sense, but it's a bold move that attracts a lot of negative attention, so I'd say it's way too risky for a maf to say at least... His logic comes from the epicmafia version, where it stands true, but the difference here is we actually are seriously discussing stuff, which lets be honest they don't really do, or can't really do, like you can't exactly pressure people on a slip in epicmafia on day 1.
then zorbees posts numbers and rand votes. This feels like he was pressured into voting but he even says he could go back anytime, signaling clear non-commitment... Also I don't like those numbers, simply because I believe if one goes that deep into calcing, they should take into account specifics such as accidental Doc protection, and chances of cop/doc death. But that's just me personally, and the difference would be minimal yes.
Daenym brings up miller. What to think of this... I will honestly say, I myself wouldn't have bought it up today, since I'd rather have miller on maf's kill list for the first night, but once it is suggested, it was kinda pointless to stall it, at least I thought so at the time, so I supported said idea. Why I thought that, in retrospect I'm unsure, but I believe it was due to miller claiming regardless of what I say, and the fact that I'd remove myself from possible millers, lowering mafia's chances of hitting a power role from the bunch that isn't a miller, should the miller not claim. Either way the calcs I never posted had worst case for us happening at 9.<some variation of 6/7's repeat>% of happening and may I mention cop death was in that so god damn our chances have gone down. Either way I supported the miller claim likely out of pure manipulation of the mafia's kill, or because I had a better idea I forgot already... Either way I don't like the timing of Daenym's post is all.
couple of pro/con miller posts, nothing important really.
Rest of the day is honestly boring to me, I see nothing.
Here comes day 2. Daenym starts with an interesting post, listing the pros and cons of cop death... Strikes me odd, but that's not my main problem, my main problem is he ignores the biggest asset the cop could have been and that is a clean decision maker. Seems odd from the person who wanted miller to claim to p much fill that exact role...
Uh speaking of general logic failures... TIK manages to point out the power of being a named role on the last day... but then says hooker got more powerful thanks to cop dying? I feel hooker basically lost any use it had when cop died and both mafias might as well be goons now since their roles now have zero effect on the game.(okay there is very minimal chance hooker hooks doc who is protecting the mafia's target, but that's so minimal it's a joke) Whats up with the brainfarts...
Also TIK claims that if we have a scummy target day 1 we might as well save it for next day... Why? Mafia won't kill them, cop's result means nothing since one guy claims miller other just comes up as clean, and now cop is wasting his time targeting someone we'd likely lynch anyway? The chances may mathematically improve, but if we lynch the scummy one anyway then this is of no consequence, since it's not like the guys role changes through the night.(Example, you have 3 boxes, 2 have nothing in them, 1 has money, if you are set on opening box 2 either way, it doesn't matter if they reveal that box 1 is empty since whether box 2 has money in it won't change after box 1 is opened).
Also speaking of TIK's pointing out of doc claim thing, it's really pointless, but at least consistent in what he had been doing till now, ergo basing this on epicmafia, though I must say the previous two things would likely get him lynched in a lylo situation there...
Daenym questions me, OH MY! Well sure yeah you are right I don't remember why I exactly supported the miller claim, but A I sure as hell would have preferred it being brought up a day later, B I bought up the question of miller knowing himself in the first place so it's a little bit more than just supporting it and C I very much remember the calculations I didn't share, and if you wish I can repeat them.
Hey while at it, I may as well say why it's truly bad cop died here, because if doc didn't die, Yeti could have claimed and led today's lynch with ease. A her results matter not till miller dies B mafia has no way of finding doc other than randomly killing people, guaranteeing Yeti's survival till lylo if she were to mislynch (ballsy doc could actually not protect her, but I personally would try to kill yeti first as mafia, since it still leaves village at mylo even if the kill fails, and they can just hook yeti, or if they really wanna be ballsy too, hook a random and hope it's doc, but that doesn't matter anymore)
rest of day 2 is meh!
So conclusion time!
For TIK I feel he is merely following EpicMafia strategy without considering the changes of making it a forum game instead of the quick paced EM games... That is to say he is using the village strats, sure he could be bullshitting us, but then he'd be more careful in his perfection of the role, like he'd avoid scummy bits or not brainfart on obvious stuff in my opinion. Also lets not forget him following that start helps the village a bit too much...
Daenym I'm doubting due to above points, not the last one, the previous 2. Not quite enough to accuse him yet, since they can be village stuff quite easily.
Yeah so my above posts only target 3 people... Sue me I like working with a mafia dead... Either way finally we have zorbees, my first point I have repeated plenty on the previous day, as for my other, it's the whole being pressured into randing but p much stating it's a vote he has no reasoning behind as ready to jump back to NL whenever, he basically gave in to pressure while avoiding doing what was being pressured out of him anyway, kinda off in my opinion.
So my vote on zorbees stands from the previous day, and I hope if he gets lynched, it gives me more to play with woot!
Vote Zorbees
TIK tries to spark discussion, via deciding on nl or rl... Good because discussion, bad because it kinda wasted time since both sides were reasonable, and I doubt anyone actually wanted a day 1 rl so it was also fairly meaningless.
hdd then mixes up some numbers, not really a hint at anything, math is really no indicator of scumness.
AG votes TIK for a reasoning similar to the one presented above, no real tell though, since TIK is an easy picking at this point, and his logic makes sense though is hardly rewarding.
zorbees reasons against trying to throw votes around because nobody would be afraid, well it sure as hell beats discussing whether NL is a scum tell or not...
TIK's logic makes sense, but it's a bold move that attracts a lot of negative attention, so I'd say it's way too risky for a maf to say at least... His logic comes from the epicmafia version, where it stands true, but the difference here is we actually are seriously discussing stuff, which lets be honest they don't really do, or can't really do, like you can't exactly pressure people on a slip in epicmafia on day 1.
then zorbees posts numbers and rand votes. This feels like he was pressured into voting but he even says he could go back anytime, signaling clear non-commitment... Also I don't like those numbers, simply because I believe if one goes that deep into calcing, they should take into account specifics such as accidental Doc protection, and chances of cop/doc death. But that's just me personally, and the difference would be minimal yes.
Daenym brings up miller. What to think of this... I will honestly say, I myself wouldn't have bought it up today, since I'd rather have miller on maf's kill list for the first night, but once it is suggested, it was kinda pointless to stall it, at least I thought so at the time, so I supported said idea. Why I thought that, in retrospect I'm unsure, but I believe it was due to miller claiming regardless of what I say, and the fact that I'd remove myself from possible millers, lowering mafia's chances of hitting a power role from the bunch that isn't a miller, should the miller not claim. Either way the calcs I never posted had worst case for us happening at 9.<some variation of 6/7's repeat>% of happening and may I mention cop death was in that so god damn our chances have gone down. Either way I supported the miller claim likely out of pure manipulation of the mafia's kill, or because I had a better idea I forgot already... Either way I don't like the timing of Daenym's post is all.
couple of pro/con miller posts, nothing important really.
Rest of the day is honestly boring to me, I see nothing.
Here comes day 2. Daenym starts with an interesting post, listing the pros and cons of cop death... Strikes me odd, but that's not my main problem, my main problem is he ignores the biggest asset the cop could have been and that is a clean decision maker. Seems odd from the person who wanted miller to claim to p much fill that exact role...
Uh speaking of general logic failures... TIK manages to point out the power of being a named role on the last day... but then says hooker got more powerful thanks to cop dying? I feel hooker basically lost any use it had when cop died and both mafias might as well be goons now since their roles now have zero effect on the game.(okay there is very minimal chance hooker hooks doc who is protecting the mafia's target, but that's so minimal it's a joke) Whats up with the brainfarts...
Also TIK claims that if we have a scummy target day 1 we might as well save it for next day... Why? Mafia won't kill them, cop's result means nothing since one guy claims miller other just comes up as clean, and now cop is wasting his time targeting someone we'd likely lynch anyway? The chances may mathematically improve, but if we lynch the scummy one anyway then this is of no consequence, since it's not like the guys role changes through the night.(Example, you have 3 boxes, 2 have nothing in them, 1 has money, if you are set on opening box 2 either way, it doesn't matter if they reveal that box 1 is empty since whether box 2 has money in it won't change after box 1 is opened).
Also speaking of TIK's pointing out of doc claim thing, it's really pointless, but at least consistent in what he had been doing till now, ergo basing this on epicmafia, though I must say the previous two things would likely get him lynched in a lylo situation there...
Daenym questions me, OH MY! Well sure yeah you are right I don't remember why I exactly supported the miller claim, but A I sure as hell would have preferred it being brought up a day later, B I bought up the question of miller knowing himself in the first place so it's a little bit more than just supporting it and C I very much remember the calculations I didn't share, and if you wish I can repeat them.
Hey while at it, I may as well say why it's truly bad cop died here, because if doc didn't die, Yeti could have claimed and led today's lynch with ease. A her results matter not till miller dies B mafia has no way of finding doc other than randomly killing people, guaranteeing Yeti's survival till lylo if she were to mislynch (ballsy doc could actually not protect her, but I personally would try to kill yeti first as mafia, since it still leaves village at mylo even if the kill fails, and they can just hook yeti, or if they really wanna be ballsy too, hook a random and hope it's doc, but that doesn't matter anymore)
rest of day 2 is meh!
So conclusion time!
For TIK I feel he is merely following EpicMafia strategy without considering the changes of making it a forum game instead of the quick paced EM games... That is to say he is using the village strats, sure he could be bullshitting us, but then he'd be more careful in his perfection of the role, like he'd avoid scummy bits or not brainfart on obvious stuff in my opinion. Also lets not forget him following that start helps the village a bit too much...
Daenym I'm doubting due to above points, not the last one, the previous 2. Not quite enough to accuse him yet, since they can be village stuff quite easily.
Yeah so my above posts only target 3 people... Sue me I like working with a mafia dead... Either way finally we have zorbees, my first point I have repeated plenty on the previous day, as for my other, it's the whole being pressured into randing but p much stating it's a vote he has no reasoning behind as ready to jump back to NL whenever, he basically gave in to pressure while avoiding doing what was being pressured out of him anyway, kinda off in my opinion.
So my vote on zorbees stands from the previous day, and I hope if he gets lynched, it gives me more to play with woot!
Vote Zorbees
responses in bold:
Walrein: Do I even have to dignify a response to an accusation with no backing except "gut"?
I don't really like the fact that Lightwolf ignores half of the game while slinging shit on me and Daenym who from my POV are probably the two cleanest players, at least so far. I'm happy for now that we have at least something from Lightwolf where we can form relationships from him towards others, but really his only opinions are "TIK is playing a bit wrong but is he scum? idk" "I should get credit for the miller thing not Daenym" and "zorbees is bad", the lattermost one being the only decent thing that says anything about what lightwolf thinks.
Walrein: Do I even have to dignify a response to an accusation with no backing except "gut"?
Votecount 2.4
zorbees (1): LightWolf
THE_IRON_KENYAN (1): Daenym
Walrein (2): THE_IRON_KENYAN Aura Guardian
LightWolf (1): zorbees
Not Voting (2): Houndoomsday Walrein
Day 2 ends in 20 hours and 23 minutes! Will extend if I see a point in doing so but act as if I definitely won't.
zorbees (1): LightWolf
THE_IRON_KENYAN (1): Daenym
Walrein (2): THE_IRON_KENYAN Aura Guardian
LightWolf (1): zorbees
Not Voting (2): Houndoomsday Walrein
Day 2 ends in 20 hours and 23 minutes! Will extend if I see a point in doing so but act as if I definitely won't.
yeah vote aura guardian
hasnt done much, and we need some posts
hasnt done much, and we need some posts
Lets go point by point zorbees, shall we.
First, you say that because that's how smogon nocs go, it was more likely for there to be a lynch day 1? 100% disagree. We only have a single mislynch this game, after that it's either a mylo or a lylo, we have one free shot, generally we will not want to waste this shot unless we were either fairly sure on our suspect or it's day 2 in which case we have to fire otherwise we hand it over to the mafia. Sure maybe not everyone realised this instantly, but in previous games village mislynched sooooooooo many times mostly because they were given that many chances to do so. So by the end of the day most people would be aware and wouldn't lynch unless we had a good suspect. My claim of the day ending in a very likely nl stands.
Time for number 2. You made the point that pressuring with no intent of actual lynching is pointless, your own point back then early in the created the whole situation where people wouldn't feel the pressure, pointing out to everyone there is no need to worry about the votes that are meant to try and make mafia slip not a scum tell how? Don't try to deny it, you were the first one to actually bring up that the votes would hold no weight and your post led to the fact that no one even got to 3 votes since after that no one saw any point in voting.(I will admit, the distracting arguments helped)
Third time's the charm! Oh this is okay, minus the fact it fails to address one of the important points, you can't deny even when voting someone, you still p much said you are ready to go back to no lynching any time, the non-commitment is still a problem.
I tried, but I don't think I can come up with a 4 pun, ever ever ever ever, 4ever. Okay so seriously, you are twisting what I said to defend a point I didn't attack? That point I made against TIK, where he used that reason against Walrein. My reasoning was, if you are set on box 2, there is no reason to wait. Sure you are correct that it increases your chances if you aren't set on a box, BUT WHAT DOES IT HAVE TO DO WITH THE QUOTE AT HAND? If you wanted to bring up this point you should have written in a part where it's relevant.
There is no Five pun here. Oh okay you are just nitpicking here and either you have not thought hard enough about this setup or are feigning ignorance... A cop's results are p much useless, he either finds a guilty, which could or could not be the miller, or finds an innocent, neither is anything to go off unless miller dies, which is hard to bet on. Cop's main use it being the CLEAN person who can be protected by the doc if doc is still alive, this much is obvious. So yeah unless miller or doc dies, cop has little reason to stay hidden on day 2, it's in all honesty in the very same vein as the miller claiming, with the difference that there is a chance the cop might be useful, but in all honesty, that's around the same chance as doc randomly blocking a kill. You know what I will humor you and calc it: 16.666666%*85.7142%*14.2857%*83.3333333%+66.666666%*14.2857%*83.3333333%*14.2857%+......
Screw it too many variables, I will just give an estimate based on the highest case of cop producing a meaningful result, 1.7.....%, second likeliest went down to 1.1....% later ones are gonna be even smaller since things such as correct randlynch and fucking cop being revealed come into the picture, I expect it to go up to 5% even in the best case. Now for doc saving someone's ass: 14.2857%*83.3333%=11.9...% That's just the chance of doc saving someone the very first night, with the fact taken into account that hooker might get him. And then the possible cases where doc survives for long enough add in more minimal chances easily beating the crap out of cop producing a meaningful result.
Sure I expect to be accused of throwing around numbers to confuse people now, but that doesn't change the fact that something you have been ignoring (doc saving a life) has much better chances than the cop producing a meaningful result. Honestly this didn't serve as a proof of anything related to scumness, I just wasted a lot of space on proving you wrong... I guess I hate when you question my facts more when you question my opinions.
6(I'm getting lazy). Now you attack my conclusions. Well lets start with the "why". I point out what I thought stuck out in the 7 pages we had. I won't lynch someone based on the fact that they slipped under my radar because they posted nothing I thought was worth bringing up. And well obv I left yeti out because she is dead, ergo pointless to suspect. As I said, sue me, it's how I play. Now onto the rest. Nice job restating my conclusions in a very interesting manner. I said TIK was p much using the bog standard EM style village play, not taking into account that turning it into a forum game changed quite a few things, and also have the opinion that he is attracting a bit too much negative attention for a mafia playing a role and that playing the EM's practiced village game doesn't exactly help the mafia too much...
Next the Daenym thing. In the conclusions I clearly stated the the point you are nitpicking on is not part of why I doubt Daenym, yet you pick on that? My doubts rise from the miller plan, and the questionable cop usefulness lists. The line you quote was one of three responses I addressed Daenym's suspicions on me, where he claimed I "just" supported the miller thing, when if I recall the read he is replying to said I'm likely town because I bought up whether the miller knows he is one or not, ergo his point was flawed based on the approach.
And come on, "zorbees is bad"? Really? Yeah sure you already made your points in bold against my reasonings, but that's one hell of a way to shorten it... Well I guess I shall summarise my points against your counterarguments as well: "yeah, zorbees bad"
<There was an unprofessional jab at zorbees here, so I will just ask, Hey TIK does zorbees' reaction remind you of anything EM related?>
First, you say that because that's how smogon nocs go, it was more likely for there to be a lynch day 1? 100% disagree. We only have a single mislynch this game, after that it's either a mylo or a lylo, we have one free shot, generally we will not want to waste this shot unless we were either fairly sure on our suspect or it's day 2 in which case we have to fire otherwise we hand it over to the mafia. Sure maybe not everyone realised this instantly, but in previous games village mislynched sooooooooo many times mostly because they were given that many chances to do so. So by the end of the day most people would be aware and wouldn't lynch unless we had a good suspect. My claim of the day ending in a very likely nl stands.
Time for number 2. You made the point that pressuring with no intent of actual lynching is pointless, your own point back then early in the created the whole situation where people wouldn't feel the pressure, pointing out to everyone there is no need to worry about the votes that are meant to try and make mafia slip not a scum tell how? Don't try to deny it, you were the first one to actually bring up that the votes would hold no weight and your post led to the fact that no one even got to 3 votes since after that no one saw any point in voting.(I will admit, the distracting arguments helped)
Third time's the charm! Oh this is okay, minus the fact it fails to address one of the important points, you can't deny even when voting someone, you still p much said you are ready to go back to no lynching any time, the non-commitment is still a problem.
I tried, but I don't think I can come up with a 4 pun, ever ever ever ever, 4ever. Okay so seriously, you are twisting what I said to defend a point I didn't attack? That point I made against TIK, where he used that reason against Walrein. My reasoning was, if you are set on box 2, there is no reason to wait. Sure you are correct that it increases your chances if you aren't set on a box, BUT WHAT DOES IT HAVE TO DO WITH THE QUOTE AT HAND? If you wanted to bring up this point you should have written in a part where it's relevant.
There is no Five pun here. Oh okay you are just nitpicking here and either you have not thought hard enough about this setup or are feigning ignorance... A cop's results are p much useless, he either finds a guilty, which could or could not be the miller, or finds an innocent, neither is anything to go off unless miller dies, which is hard to bet on. Cop's main use it being the CLEAN person who can be protected by the doc if doc is still alive, this much is obvious. So yeah unless miller or doc dies, cop has little reason to stay hidden on day 2, it's in all honesty in the very same vein as the miller claiming, with the difference that there is a chance the cop might be useful, but in all honesty, that's around the same chance as doc randomly blocking a kill. You know what I will humor you and calc it: 16.666666%*85.7142%*14.2857%*83.3333333%+66.666666%*14.2857%*83.3333333%*14.2857%+......
Screw it too many variables, I will just give an estimate based on the highest case of cop producing a meaningful result, 1.7.....%, second likeliest went down to 1.1....% later ones are gonna be even smaller since things such as correct randlynch and fucking cop being revealed come into the picture, I expect it to go up to 5% even in the best case. Now for doc saving someone's ass: 14.2857%*83.3333%=11.9...% That's just the chance of doc saving someone the very first night, with the fact taken into account that hooker might get him. And then the possible cases where doc survives for long enough add in more minimal chances easily beating the crap out of cop producing a meaningful result.
Sure I expect to be accused of throwing around numbers to confuse people now, but that doesn't change the fact that something you have been ignoring (doc saving a life) has much better chances than the cop producing a meaningful result. Honestly this didn't serve as a proof of anything related to scumness, I just wasted a lot of space on proving you wrong... I guess I hate when you question my facts more when you question my opinions.
6(I'm getting lazy). Now you attack my conclusions. Well lets start with the "why". I point out what I thought stuck out in the 7 pages we had. I won't lynch someone based on the fact that they slipped under my radar because they posted nothing I thought was worth bringing up. And well obv I left yeti out because she is dead, ergo pointless to suspect. As I said, sue me, it's how I play. Now onto the rest. Nice job restating my conclusions in a very interesting manner. I said TIK was p much using the bog standard EM style village play, not taking into account that turning it into a forum game changed quite a few things, and also have the opinion that he is attracting a bit too much negative attention for a mafia playing a role and that playing the EM's practiced village game doesn't exactly help the mafia too much...
Next the Daenym thing. In the conclusions I clearly stated the the point you are nitpicking on is not part of why I doubt Daenym, yet you pick on that? My doubts rise from the miller plan, and the questionable cop usefulness lists. The line you quote was one of three responses I addressed Daenym's suspicions on me, where he claimed I "just" supported the miller thing, when if I recall the read he is replying to said I'm likely town because I bought up whether the miller knows he is one or not, ergo his point was flawed based on the approach.
And come on, "zorbees is bad"? Really? Yeah sure you already made your points in bold against my reasonings, but that's one hell of a way to shorten it... Well I guess I shall summarise my points against your counterarguments as well: "yeah, zorbees bad"
<There was an unprofessional jab at zorbees here, so I will just ask, Hey TIK does zorbees' reaction remind you of anything EM related?>
I do like the recent contributions from you though, so I will unvote, vote Aura Guardian. I'm pretty much only satisfied with Lightwolf and Daenym at the moment. Everyone else needs to be more active.
If you only pointed it out in scumchat, the damage would be much more minimal zorbees. What you pointing out did was dissuade villagers from trying to pressure because after a post like that no one would really feel threatened.
Also I'm not denying that THE BEST option was to no lynch on day 1, I know that as well as TIK did, my problem was completely giving up on scumhunting limited the information from day 1 way too much.
Your extension of the analogy is pointless, you just try to keep proving day 1 no lynch is a good idea, when I said that the analogy was just questioning TIK's logic of leaving a VERY scummy person for day 2. We get it Day 1 NL is good...
And finally yes you are right, obviously I want the other half of the freaking game to make more complicated posts, more arguments, bigger accusations, I only said I couldn't prosecute them for the lack of such posts, so I focused on leads I had instead of the ones I lacked.
Also I'm not denying that THE BEST option was to no lynch on day 1, I know that as well as TIK did, my problem was completely giving up on scumhunting limited the information from day 1 way too much.
Your extension of the analogy is pointless, you just try to keep proving day 1 no lynch is a good idea, when I said that the analogy was just questioning TIK's logic of leaving a VERY scummy person for day 2. We get it Day 1 NL is good...
And finally yes you are right, obviously I want the other half of the freaking game to make more complicated posts, more arguments, bigger accusations, I only said I couldn't prosecute them for the lack of such posts, so I focused on leads I had instead of the ones I lacked.
Regarding the "cop dying is good" mentality I have, it's because a false-Town read on the Godfather would be the worst thing that could happen. Assuming she checked someone and then "cleaned" him. Now we have 2 supposedly clean people to go with and trust reads from, but one of them could easily direct us to a mislynch. In a game where you can only miss once, that's a huge deal. Essentially the same thing if she had hit "scum", since it's a 50/50 shot. I will say I hadn't thought of the applications of simply having a claimed cop be the leader D1/D2, at the expense of being permahooked.
The timing of the miller thing was good, imo. Assuming Yeti happened to hit scum N1, we could have easily gotten into a "Hooker or Miller???" scenario. When the miller was self-aware, he could have instantly removed the possibility of that mess. And like you said, it's a person whose opinion can be trusted. But more than anything else, it generated some discussion. At that point, we were all stuck agreeing on how NL was good.
I'm well aware that D2 I'm likely to come across as more scummy than previous days. That's because D1 I had something indisputably Townish to do. Now we're all just scumhunting.
Regardless, LW has done his fair share of contributing for now. I see THE_IRON_KENYAN viewing the thread, though, and would love to see something from him in regards to all of the thoughts posted on him.
The timing of the miller thing was good, imo. Assuming Yeti happened to hit scum N1, we could have easily gotten into a "Hooker or Miller???" scenario. When the miller was self-aware, he could have instantly removed the possibility of that mess. And like you said, it's a person whose opinion can be trusted. But more than anything else, it generated some discussion. At that point, we were all stuck agreeing on how NL was good.
I'm well aware that D2 I'm likely to come across as more scummy than previous days. That's because D1 I had something indisputably Townish to do. Now we're all just scumhunting.
Regardless, LW has done his fair share of contributing for now. I see THE_IRON_KENYAN viewing the thread, though, and would love to see something from him in regards to all of the thoughts posted on him.
THE_IRON_...KENYAN?
Banned deucer.
I honestly thought this game was going to die. I was 100% sure that there was waning interest in the game and it would not finish. I personally was losing interest because of my then false belief that I have to make these gigantic read posts and really sift through things to find good town and maf reads. Things have naturally been jumping out at me as town or maf this whole game, and ive been ignoring them for the most part and not pursuing them because I was afraid of being wrong, but then I realized that pretty much every argument for making someone scum can also be made for making them town, too, and really everything in the end is a gut read but these obvious slips LW is talking about.
I dont like what lightwolf had to say about me, but I can understand where hes coming from and it looks town. Also I like zorbees response, it was consistent with what hes always been doing and as always very logical.
Out of everybody I like daenym the best. Just his posting style and a strong gut feeling give me the town read on him.
Houndoomsday is 100% a noob town to me.
I get the feeling from zorbees that hes not afraid to die, and thats usually a town quality. His posts are brief, he never looks like hes trying to be town, and he genuinely looks like hes trying to help with all his posts.
I know you wanted something new from new daenym and so ill give you something that hit me when I saw the zorbees and lw post. they looked a little too good back to back like that for both of them to be town. it looks to me almost like a clever maf thing, but im an occams razor sort of guy, so I like my previous reads a lot more than the zorbees/LW team conspiracy theory.
I know probably a lot of you will be mad at me for the brief post and the repeating of what some people have said, but I stand by it. I dont like to really try to fabricate my reads and really dig for something scummy: If I see something that jumps out to me, like the gut read on the zorbees/LW conversation, I go on it. Walrein looked weird and made weird posts, so I went on it. A_G has that same feel.
my vote stays on Walrein
Im fine with an A_G lynch, but im more confident about my walrein pick. And im not ready to lynch quite yet, i think wed be getting it over too quickly
I dont like what lightwolf had to say about me, but I can understand where hes coming from and it looks town. Also I like zorbees response, it was consistent with what hes always been doing and as always very logical.
Out of everybody I like daenym the best. Just his posting style and a strong gut feeling give me the town read on him.
Houndoomsday is 100% a noob town to me.
I get the feeling from zorbees that hes not afraid to die, and thats usually a town quality. His posts are brief, he never looks like hes trying to be town, and he genuinely looks like hes trying to help with all his posts.
I know you wanted something new from new daenym and so ill give you something that hit me when I saw the zorbees and lw post. they looked a little too good back to back like that for both of them to be town. it looks to me almost like a clever maf thing, but im an occams razor sort of guy, so I like my previous reads a lot more than the zorbees/LW team conspiracy theory.
I know probably a lot of you will be mad at me for the brief post and the repeating of what some people have said, but I stand by it. I dont like to really try to fabricate my reads and really dig for something scummy: If I see something that jumps out to me, like the gut read on the zorbees/LW conversation, I go on it. Walrein looked weird and made weird posts, so I went on it. A_G has that same feel.
my vote stays on Walrein
Im fine with an A_G lynch, but im more confident about my walrein pick. And im not ready to lynch quite yet, i think wed be getting it over too quickly
Votecount 2.5
Aura Guardian (2): Houndoomsday zorbees
zorbees (1): LightWolf
THE_IRON_KENYAN (1): Daenym
Walrein (2): THE_IRON_KENYAN Aura Guardian
Not Voting (1): Walrein
Day 2 ends in 14 hours and 5 minutes!
Aura Guardian (2): Houndoomsday zorbees
zorbees (1): LightWolf
THE_IRON_KENYAN (1): Daenym
Walrein (2): THE_IRON_KENYAN Aura Guardian
Not Voting (1): Walrein
Day 2 ends in 14 hours and 5 minutes!