Playoffs Smogon Tour 17 Playoffs - Finals [Won by M Dragon]

[ium]

chill

 

[Dave]

focus blast is 70% hit, 30% miss. 3 focus blast doesn't stack. meaning, the hit % doesn't decrease after the first hit, the 70% always stays the same.

LOL I JUST SAID WHAT BLARAJAN SAID AND IT DIDN'T TAKE ME 4 PARAGRAPHS.

#winning

 

[danilo]

f**king nerds

 

[Chirac]

^what blara said. (and I really know what he's talking about lol)

But I guess what Leftiez wanted to say is that the miss is "legit" in a serie.
Yeah you can hit 40 (theorically, do not mention that there's only 8 pps, i'm aware of that) Focus Blasts in a row, and then have to rely on this 41st. But will it be legit not to miss it?
Leftiez just meant that the miss was about to maintain the ratio of hit/miss of the move.

 

[Erza98]

LEFTIEZ FOR DA WIN

 

[blarajan]

stone cold: pokemon playing hotty by day, master of efficient language by night.

 

[kd24]

Just to clarify.
The probability for an independend event to happen stays the same (always 70% for focus blast) whereas the likelyhood for said event to happen multiple times in a row decreases (0,7*0,7*0,7*...). Probably just a matter of me not wording it properly.
Therefore whatever Leftiez said had some merit although it is still stupid to *exspect* a miss. Focus Blast was likely to miss in that instance but it wasnt probable to miss.
Hopefully that got the point across somehow.

no it was not likely to miss, it was 30% still >__<. 30% is not "likely".

 

[CTC]

The size of a man is reflected by the size of things that bother him. Bloo has proven to be the person whom I have the most respect for on the internet. On the other hand, lefties is a str8 (BAN ME PLEASE) fuck this chodelicker

 

[Sapientia]

niggas not getting conflicts point

what he wants to say is that it's more likely that 1 of 3 focus blasts misses than that all hit. Therefore complaining about 3 consecutive hits is legit

At least as far as complaining about hax is "legit" at all lol

 

[kd24]

niggas not getting conflicts point

what he wants to say is that it's more likely that 1 of 3 focus blasts misses than that all hit. Therefore complaining about 3 consecutive hits is legit

At least as far as complaining about hax is "legit" at all lol

no one disagrees with that, but that isn't what he was saying lol. if that's what he truly meant, then idk how it got lost in translation so badly or why he acted as if 1.) blarajan was wrong or 2.) believe his qualification in high level mathematics was supposed to drive home his point regarding grade school mathetmatics

 

[King]

yo dudes have u noticed that people are bitching because of the lack of bloo's response in all this? can we just all fuck off because it's not our place to be talking about this shit?

lets just enjoy the finals man. this has been a great tour regardless of what has happened. good series guys, and bloo u did really well. you'll get a trophy this year and i think it'll be more your namesake. you can always get it next tour too ;)

 

[henry]

no. that makes zero sense whatsoever if you knew what you were talking about in the slightest, so let's have a tiny little review on the most basic of probability lessons.

if you roll two six sided die, what are the odds that both dice will be a six? 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36. if you rolled a dice and got a six, what are the odds that the next dice you roll is a six as well? 1/6. that is because the first dice roll does not influence the second one, it's called an independent event.

what are the odds that you hit three focus blast in a row? .7 * .7 * .7 = .343, or 34.3%. however, if he hit the first two focus blast already, what are the odds of the third one being a hit? 70%, because they are INDEPENDENT EVENTS.

if you have to hit three focus blast in a row to win a game, and haven't done so yet, you should expect to miss at least one of them because odds are slim (34%), that you hit all three of them. but if you hit the first two, the odds of hitting the third one is still just 70% since the previous ones don't influence that one at all!!! i really don't know what you're talking about, and the fact that you misunderstand such a basic concept to that horrendous of a degree is scary, especially since you did that "stuff" a lot in university!

what you're describing seems to be the gambler's fallacy. if you're playing roulette at a casino, and the ball has landed on red eight times in a row, it would be fallacious to put it on black because "it's bound to hit black this time, since it's hit red so often before."

just so we clear: previous instances do not affect future ones for INDEPENDENT EVENTS.

Don't wanna be a dick dude, but have you even taken a math class before?

You have a normal coin with heads and tails and you want to flip it twice with the objective of it landing on heads twice

It can either go

Heads/Tails

Then after the first flip

Heads>>Heads/Tails

Tails>>Heads/Tails

That leaves these 4 possible combinations

Heads heads
Tails tails
tails heads
heads tails

The ideal situation has a 25% chance of happening, and is affected by what happened before it.

It's sad to think that this is even an argument...

 

[Style_Dota]

Uhhhh so...

Yeah, each individual focus blast is independent, meaning that the odds per turn never change being 70% hit, 30% miss.

However, you can find the total probability, which should still equal 100%, for thee uses of focus blast to be:

All 3 hit: .7 x .7 x .7 = .343

Two hit and one miss: .7 x .7 x .3 + .7 x .3 x .7 + .3 x .7 x .7 or 3(.7 x .7 x .3) = 0.441

One hit and two misses: 3(.7 x .3 x .3) = 0.189

All three miss .3 x .3 x .3 = 0.027

This totals to 1, or 100%, Conflict's logic is correct.

 

[Iconic]

 

[yond]

 

[Logic]

1 + 2 = 3 therefore 2 + 1 = 3

yes I do take math in college

oml what is this blasphemy

 

[Zephir]

There was a prophecy calling that Perche No Fai and Lefties shall overcome all their opponents until their confrontation in finals, mocking back the french community and disgracing the smogon tour for good. Only M dragon somehow broke it so I'm expecting he'll win, maybe in some embarassing games since the remaining rule is that Lefties must ridicule himself at the end of whatever business he's involved in.

gl lefties, don't put too much pressure on yourself, you won't disappoint us since both outcomes would be hilarious. Oh and keep playing your own teams (I think ?) - whatever people say you can't be totally underserving if you keep doing that :)

 

[Moonclawz]

M Dragon to win it all. Rooting for Bloo to win the next Tour! (Your playing in the semifinals was amazing.)

 

[chimpact]

Forget the focus blast misses, he really had thunder wave on ferrothorn...

GL to both finalists, rooting for M dragon

 

[HeIIraiser]

Let: a = b
Then: a*a = b*a
So..

(add

both sides)

This can be written as:

and cancelling from both sides gives: 1=2

 

[august]

tryin to divide by zero dam son what do u think we out here in the extended complex plane??

 

[AB2]

damn cuh, bloo was on some of that new god flow shit vs leftiez. it's too bad that his ttar rolled around in crisco before the battle though. pdc's jirachi was reincarnated into that ferrothorn or some shit.

rooting for m drager to win mang :)

 

[Atticus]

anyone that uses choking as an excuse to cover up luck is fucking dumb, if you choked it meant you played like shit and deserved to lose. also hi august xD

also conflict, learn to probability bro. when blarajan is making more sense than you there's something wrong......

 

[Shiny Magmortar]

!lavoscalc

 

[Atticus]

Uhhhh so...

Yeah, each individual focus blast is independent, meaning that the odds per turn never change being 70% hit, 30% miss.

However, you can find the total probability, which should still equal 100%, for thee uses of focus blast to be:

All 3 hit: .7 x .7 x .7 = .343

Two hit and one miss: .7 x .7 x .3 + .7 x .3 x .7 + .3 x .7 x .7 or 3(.7 x .7 x .3) = 0.441

One hit and two misses: 3(.7 x .3 x .3) = 0.189

All three miss .3 x .3 x .3 = 0.027

This totals to 1, or 100%, Conflict's logic is correct.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy