Its painful that every night theyre hitting two important power roles, and would lead to believe somewhere LW's info has been leaked, (likely during night 5), although its hard to say who is the mole.
-
Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
-
Congrats to the winners of the 2023 Smog Awards!
Big Lord of the Rings Mafia - Game Over! Forces of Sauron Win!
- Thread starter UncleSam
- Start date
It should be obvious that I'm Frodo and dying tonight
I think we need to know how much people near Lightwolf knew, especially vonfiedler and Ullar.
Working purely off of the last lynch, I would look at Snype, Pokeguy and Gottemer as potential lynches. Snype made a large post supporting the Aura Guardian lynch, but refused to lynch. Pokeguy and Gottemer turned pressure into a roll.
Lynch Steven Snype for now. [EDIT: Unvoted]
Working purely off of the last lynch, I would look at Snype, Pokeguy and Gottemer as potential lynches. Snype made a large post supporting the Aura Guardian lynch, but refused to lynch. Pokeguy and Gottemer turned pressure into a roll.
Lynch Steven Snype for now. [EDIT: Unvoted]
Last edited:
imperfectluck
Banned deucer.
Just did a quick count, correct me if I'm wrong, I counted 13 dead villagers, 8 dead mafia, and 1 dead wolf. Since we are keeping a ratio greater than 2:1 village:mafia dead, we are probably on track to do well IF we can keep this pace up, but now apparently it seems that there are no more? inspector type roles to clean anyone. At a guess, our odds to hit a mafia is roughly 1/4, if we lynch without evidence (which we will probably have to do soon.) The only tool I know of myself at the village's disposal is the Rohirrim, and we should start using it at some point, if not necessarily this cycle. The hitting of power roles every night is the natural consequence of the Rohirrim not standing up and taking the hits for them as well as the fact that there may or may not be a mole (I am not acquainted with who was and wasn't on LW's sheet.) I feel like Rohirrim should have been used ages ago, but as it stands it's probably a lot more likely to hit village, although if too many misfires happen it might panic the wolf into helping hit the mafia if he's still alive at that time. I have no reads as I haven't been paying attention to the thread for roughly 700 posts or so, but I think the game is getting into late game now and we should start mathing out the late game numbers and planning for endgame.
Basically I'd like to hear opinions on if village should start randlynching with Rohirrim in addition to current pace of 1 village kill, 1 wolf kill and 1 mafia kill per cycle. Seems like the lynches have been quite accurate lately, but misfires will start happening (and already have) again, and it seems like the mafia and wolf have patched up their difficulties from before.
Basically I'd like to hear opinions on if village should start randlynching with Rohirrim in addition to current pace of 1 village kill, 1 wolf kill and 1 mafia kill per cycle. Seems like the lynches have been quite accurate lately, but misfires will start happening (and already have) again, and it seems like the mafia and wolf have patched up their difficulties from before.
A member of the Rohirrim suggested to me that the Rohirrim attempt to kill a claimed Rohirrim (so all but the guy getting Rohirrim'd). If the guy is evil, he gets Rohirrim'd, if not, he lives and is clear. This however does run the risk of outing who is Rohirrim but that's probably a sacrifice we'll have to make (plus all our PRs are fucking dead so)
Andy Snype
Mr. Music
I did not initially lynch because I wanted to get a read from Aura Guardian. After he posted something and I made my read, I voted.
Really, man? Nobody else counterclaimed, so he pretty much has to be Frodo. Lynch Mithril (unvoted)
Last edited:
god you could at least highlight me in your RVS post
I'm not sure RVS is the way to go - surely we have enough posting evidence to start forming real arguments against people? I mean if we have to rely on NOC strats.
Snype's last post strikes as odd to me, it wasn't tremendously obvious to me that Paperblade had to be Frodo until he posted (I'm sure I would have figured it out in time but it wan't so obvious that anyone should be able to make that deduction instantly), so Mithril's post makes sense to me. In addition to what billy said about Snype' sbehavior yesterday some of Snype's posts in the early days seem scummy to me as well. I'm going to vote Steven Snype for now for some added pressure and I'll elaborate in a future post if you guys want.
I feel I may have been unclear in my last post and No Edits Allowed, so I have to put this clarification in a new post. Mithril's post was reasonable so Snype's vote is unreasonable and it looks like he's trying to deflect the pressure from billy onto someone else.
I agree with aska here. That is the day in a row that Snype has has taken the first thing he sees and tries to immediately go after them (A_G yesterday) while avoiding himself. Admittedly if I had paid better attention Paperblade probably being Frodo should have been obvious, but it doesnt seem like something that would warrant an immediate vote. I feel like Snype is clearly trying to keep any and all discussion away from himself.
Andy Snype
Mr. Music
Yes, if you had paid better attention, that would be obvious. The lynch vote was just a pressure vote to get you to talk about yourself. I wanted to see how you would respond to the vote. Mithril's post immediately tries to deflect himself off onto me.
I invite both of you to talk about me. In fact, I invite everyone to talk about me. I like talking about myself too, so I will start.
Also, keep in mind that if Paperblade was lying, the real Frodo/Sam would have outed one of themselves, and they've had over a day/night cycle to do so. Paperblade tagged the villagers to post during the NIGHT prior to post during the day. At this late in the game, if we are as fucked as Paperblade indeed makes it out to be, requiring us to post thoughts about each other and play this out as a NOC, I think that had Paperblade been lying, the real Sam/Frodo would have outed themselves. I had asked Paperblade whether or not he could confirm my claim, which he did, so I know that regardless of alliance, Paperblade has my information, meaning that LightWolf trusted him because he was the only person I claimed to this entire game. It was not until after LN claimed to be Gondor checker that I immediately suspected LightWolf because of how generic his claim seemed to be and that this game was going to follow the typical village leader system, which was one of the things that UncleSam and DLE said to convince me to sub in. I felt that he was likely to be mafia, especially considering the targets he had picked were just relatively weak players.
Paperblade's request to get us to post thoughts makes me think he is villager because he posted during the night, a time when most NOCs are completely silenced. It's a village-oriented move to do that because he wants to try to get more public information, which I feel is the most helpful thing for us. I also think that he had realized, we were massively fucked and he might have feared his own deaths, considering the kill targets that have been going down each night and Paperblade did nto appear to be one of them. I expect two people to die tonight as they are known Middle-Earth affiliated non-vanillas: billymills and Paperblade. billymills, from when LN checked him, claimed Boromir in Post #522. He is still alive, indicating that if the mafia has inspected him by now, his role seems to be relatively useless. Paperblade, being Frodo, I suspect will die tonight.
I am very tired and have spent at least an hour typing this. These are my thoughts for now, and I would like to unlynch my vote on Mithril right now as I think getting more information to read about other villagers is an important step. I am placing a FoS on Metal Sonic right now as this entire game he has posted basically one-liners when I know he can scroll novels, possibly trying to lay low.
I invite both of you to talk about me. In fact, I invite everyone to talk about me. I like talking about myself too, so I will start.
Also, keep in mind that if Paperblade was lying, the real Frodo/Sam would have outed one of themselves, and they've had over a day/night cycle to do so. Paperblade tagged the villagers to post during the NIGHT prior to post during the day. At this late in the game, if we are as fucked as Paperblade indeed makes it out to be, requiring us to post thoughts about each other and play this out as a NOC, I think that had Paperblade been lying, the real Sam/Frodo would have outed themselves. I had asked Paperblade whether or not he could confirm my claim, which he did, so I know that regardless of alliance, Paperblade has my information, meaning that LightWolf trusted him because he was the only person I claimed to this entire game. It was not until after LN claimed to be Gondor checker that I immediately suspected LightWolf because of how generic his claim seemed to be and that this game was going to follow the typical village leader system, which was one of the things that UncleSam and DLE said to convince me to sub in. I felt that he was likely to be mafia, especially considering the targets he had picked were just relatively weak players.
- Acklow had posted relatively trolly and I thought it was time to get more casual information and with RODAN's death, it was hard not to be suspicious of the people that campaigned for leadership. I posted a question for Acklow and billymills had started a lynch on him, which multiple people bandwagoned. He bandwagoned on the Acklow lynch to see how it would go, which was my initial suspicion. He had spent the entire day arguing with LN, and I will similarly fight the rest of this day arguing with anyone else.
- I had actually thought Ullar was clean, but I did not trust Ullar because I thought he was inexperienced to lead and he would be easily moled I also thought the mayor that would also be difficult to actually prove his claim, but I did not think he was actually scum. When LightWolf posted Ullar's "overreaction," I thought it was a perfectly normal reaction from Ullar if you've played with Ullar in the past and thought that LightWolf was mafia.
- I thought that LightWolf's reasoning from a village perspective to determine that penguin344 wasn't specifically Eowyn was very weird considering LightWolf had said he determined he wasn't Eowyn, in Post #590. I thought that one of LightWolf's village-allied targeters, most likely Eagle4 in retrospect, randed penguin and he had shared claims with LN, who had already claimed Gondor-only checker at this point and by his specificity seemed more trustable, especially considering if there was a Gondor checker, LW would have said he does not have a Rohirrim check claim, which LW could not lie as if he had a Rohirrim checker, he would have counterclaimed.
- During that night, LN contacted me, preparing for a scenario that he wanted to be prepared for should Frodo die. He suspected that this game is a lynchpin and wanted to be ready for Gondor to win. He also told me that he trusted LightWolf, and LightWolf's track record had also been looking perfect, albeit sketchy. I actually felt kinda defeated to hear this. When I play a village/mafia game, I play an aggressive villager.
My point is: I have a track record for playing aggressively as a villager and I was extremely disappointed when I got this role, not just because in the only other NOC I've played in, it was just frustrating with the early posts and I just subbed out, not having a good first experience in NOC with Medieval Mafia (a big reason why I didn't want to sign up) for this game, though UncleSam and DLE told me that it would start out like a NOC game, but basically become an OC towards the end. Back to the events in day. Since LN planned on trusting LightWolf and since I trusted LN, it meant that I had no choice but to trust him, I felt dejected because there is nothing to do in this village leader system and I wanted the chance to be able to do something, and I basically gave up on trying to be independent and I had feared this game was going just like the last one, and I stopped caring for a while, as I thought this game seemed to start just like Everybody Votes, where an inspect-related claim just starts lynching off relatively unskilled baddies, especially since it seemed that Blue Tornado was targeted by Shelob, so I had thought his survival meant the mafia did not want to kill him and LightWolf was purposefully ignoring him wihle targeting others that I suspected were picked by members LightWolf trusted, forcing LightWolf to get rid of the bad claims/players to gain the trust of his circle. I would have much rather lynched Blue Tornado because his life meant that the mafia did not want him dead, though they had publicly targeted him.I have been lynched before to sub in because of how aggressive I am and in that last mafia, zorbees can certainly attest to how bored I was that I claimed wolf to RaRe to try to mole the mafia, as the village's vote-power silencer. I played the most aggressively of any villager. In United Nations mafia, I subbed in, demanded sheet access, found out they had a mole and told that the village leader to lynch me to figure out who their mole is. In one of vonFiedler's games (the FFA with puzzle solving), Adventure Games Mafia, I was meant to be the most passive player, but I had talked to almost everyone in Cycle 1 and the mafia (imperfectluck ) thought I was a big threat. I suspect considering there are people that have barely posted in this thread, that the hosts are out of subs. Mithril can attest that when I wanted to practice leading the village in Brawl Mafia, I intended to clean myself by having the village lynch me.
- With the successful lynch from the day prior though, LightWolf had a successful track record and my feelings from the day prior still carried over, so I still voted with him out of defeat, but I felt a bit better because this was a successful streak of lynches that LightWolf was able to make, decreasing the likelihood that he is mafia, because I thought, with Blue Torando's obvious incoming publynch, that would be 4 mafia dead, which seems like overkill for a mafiaman to bus, and I felt more confident about ourselves, though with the death of LN and reyscarface, I felt that LW trusted the wrong person.
- After LW dies, I notice zorbees is the one that goes around to start poking at villagers who he says have not claimed to LightWolf. macle initially responds with zorbees having outdated info. I suspect this means that zorbees is a cleaned villager, either by reyscarface or LonelyNess. Paperblade, with your sheet access, I would like to ask you to confirm this. If not, FoS on zorbees soon.
Paperblade's request to get us to post thoughts makes me think he is villager because he posted during the night, a time when most NOCs are completely silenced. It's a village-oriented move to do that because he wants to try to get more public information, which I feel is the most helpful thing for us. I also think that he had realized, we were massively fucked and he might have feared his own deaths, considering the kill targets that have been going down each night and Paperblade did nto appear to be one of them. I expect two people to die tonight as they are known Middle-Earth affiliated non-vanillas: billymills and Paperblade. billymills, from when LN checked him, claimed Boromir in Post #522. He is still alive, indicating that if the mafia has inspected him by now, his role seems to be relatively useless. Paperblade, being Frodo, I suspect will die tonight.
I am very tired and have spent at least an hour typing this. These are my thoughts for now, and I would like to unlynch my vote on Mithril right now as I think getting more information to read about other villagers is an important step. I am placing a FoS on Metal Sonic right now as this entire game he has posted basically one-liners when I know he can scroll novels, possibly trying to lay low.
Andy Snype
Mr. Music
my last sentence has a typo, should read "I know he can write novels"
One problem I realize with trying to find mafia from Rohirrim claims is that the mafia/wolf may have claimed Soldier of Gondor, which was/is their safer option. We may end up cleaning someone, but that person will likely just die the next night. I can't think of any clever things we can do with a supposedly clean person for one night, but I may be missing something. We already have Paperblade at the moment anyway. Just double lynching the two most suspicious people overall seems like the better option, which is what ipl suggested I think. IF we do that, how exactly would we execute it. Would we soft vote the two best targets and then ask all Rohirrim to go for one, and everyone else to go for the other?
Assuming there are 2 anti-villagers left, we have a 2/21 and 2/20 chance of lynching a correct person. Assuming no crossfire and we mislynch, it's then 2/17 and 2/16. Then 2/13 and 2/12. Then 2/9 and 2/8. Then 2/5 and 2/4, which is where we might lose I think. We have to mislynch 6-8 people before things look kind of grim. The chances are better when we don't lynch people we believe to be innocent. Obviously this is just an estimate, and other factors may come into play, so if you have a better 'simulation', please do tell. Does anyone have some kind of mathematical proof that suggests using two lynches instead of one is statistically better for the village?
As for suspicions, soviet still hasn't posted. Cancerous hasn't posted either. I really don't know much about either player. However, Cancerous seemed to be comfortable posting in other games, so being shy or intimidated is likely not a factor preventing him/her posting. Does Cancerous have something to hide? There's also so many other people that haven't said much.
I was suspicious of Snype, though less so after his recent post.
Assuming there are 2 anti-villagers left, we have a 2/21 and 2/20 chance of lynching a correct person. Assuming no crossfire and we mislynch, it's then 2/17 and 2/16. Then 2/13 and 2/12. Then 2/9 and 2/8. Then 2/5 and 2/4, which is where we might lose I think. We have to mislynch 6-8 people before things look kind of grim. The chances are better when we don't lynch people we believe to be innocent. Obviously this is just an estimate, and other factors may come into play, so if you have a better 'simulation', please do tell. Does anyone have some kind of mathematical proof that suggests using two lynches instead of one is statistically better for the village?
As for suspicions, soviet still hasn't posted. Cancerous hasn't posted either. I really don't know much about either player. However, Cancerous seemed to be comfortable posting in other games, so being shy or intimidated is likely not a factor preventing him/her posting. Does Cancerous have something to hide? There's also so many other people that haven't said much.
I was suspicious of Snype, though less so after his recent post.
My cancer sense is tingling, someone mentioned my name? And what's this? Finger? Toward me? Outrageous!! Outrageous I say!!
I did not post anything so far simply because I don't feel the need to. I don't have any read on other players because I don't know many of you well enough to pick up any abnormal behavior. The ones I did know of, are acting exactly as I expected they would be.
Since I'm posting anyway, here are my few thoughts: There most likely be more than 2 anti villagers left.
There are 8 mafia deaths already, 4 of which are named role, and 4 are orcs, plus sauron and gollum, that's 5 named mafia and 4 vanillas mafia, which is kinda weird since there's should be more vanillas than named characters. I think it may be best to assume there are more orcs frolicking nearby. It's also mentioned that if frodo/paperblade dies, something terrible going to happen, so let's not take it easy.
As of the use of rohirim, this really should have been brought up last night. Regardless, I'm OK either randlynching people or just randlynching rohirim people, there should be a group of cleaned villagers, both gondor and rohirim, on the sheet already. So if you could just throw us two names to lynch, we can start immediately.
That's eh, pretty much it. Any other questions from now on shall be promptly answered by yours truly, Cancerous. But if it can wait, ask it at night, when the prying eye cannot see.
I did not post anything so far simply because I don't feel the need to. I don't have any read on other players because I don't know many of you well enough to pick up any abnormal behavior. The ones I did know of, are acting exactly as I expected they would be.
Since I'm posting anyway, here are my few thoughts: There most likely be more than 2 anti villagers left.
There are 8 mafia deaths already, 4 of which are named role, and 4 are orcs, plus sauron and gollum, that's 5 named mafia and 4 vanillas mafia, which is kinda weird since there's should be more vanillas than named characters. I think it may be best to assume there are more orcs frolicking nearby. It's also mentioned that if frodo/paperblade dies, something terrible going to happen, so let's not take it easy.
As of the use of rohirim, this really should have been brought up last night. Regardless, I'm OK either randlynching people or just randlynching rohirim people, there should be a group of cleaned villagers, both gondor and rohirim, on the sheet already. So if you could just throw us two names to lynch, we can start immediately.
That's eh, pretty much it. Any other questions from now on shall be promptly answered by yours truly, Cancerous. But if it can wait, ask it at night, when the prying eye cannot see.
i think its pretty obvious from the nightkills that your shittey sheety spreadsheet has been leaked to scum
dont worry i dont care at all
dont worry i dont care at all
yea, cause my nice contributor badge and C&C work rightSteven Snype said:
;)
I can scroll novels too but i certainly didnt scroll yours!Steven Snype said:
okay, maybe a little
vote steven snype
only scum write walls
only scum write walls
I did RVS because I sort of viewed it as a "Restart" to the game. Most of the lynches were easy wagons following Lightwolf and company, so there really isn't too much to draw from most of the past days. I suppose going back and looking at the early days could be useful though. But with 30 pages to this game already, I suppose going RVS is a bit of justified laziness on my part. Especially since I was about to go to bed when I posted it.
Andy Snype
Mr. Music
you have provided nearly zero contribution to this game so far and have made four noninformative posts. lynch metal sonic (unvoted) as a pressure vote to provide more insight. Who do you think are the people we should lynch and why?
Other reads:
zorbees: I still suspect you heavily for calling out other users the day beforehand claiming that LightWolf gave you a list of who claimed and who didn't. You are still high on my suspicious list, but nobody knows anything about Metal Sonic, so he takes precedence right now.
Cancerous: "I did not post anything so far simply because I don't feel the need to" is terrible because Paperblade has posted, asking us for our reasoning. I disagree from Paperblade's perspective that he give everyone two people not cleaned on the village sheet to get a read from the mafia before making that information publicly available. I think Paperblade should post who should be lynched, but I think that he should post after most people in the game have posted.
askaninjask: I think Mithril's post was unreasonable, else we would have seen one kill, not two because the mafia would have hit Paperblade and he would have been protected. I have asserted earlier that Paperblade must be Frodo because nobody has counterclaimed either Frodo/Sam. He even claimed to know who the actual Frodo was, which xenu understood when Frodo claimed, that or xenu is an even worse inactive fuck than RBG. I have known Mithril for a few years and I know he is intelligent, so to see him post something like that looked very sketchy to me. Mithril has played NOCs before and usually does well in them, so seeing anyone make a statement like that surprised me.
imperfectluck: I think the Rohirrim should start to collaborate as to who they think is the best person, but only once most of the players in this game make substantial posts so that we can get reads on most of the people in this game to get a more educated decision.
I think that right now, we should be looking at players hat haven't been paying very much attention to this game / posted anythign with content lately, as they have had almost 10 day/night cycles to get their own reads from the post.
Tagging soviet TheGottemer PokeguyNXB macle YAYtears TheSwagger Slim Guldo
Last edited: